Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 09/19 2016 EOD

In aggregate, I think a short period of consolidation with a mild positive bias is now in the cards. There is risk that we could go challenge $1.24/5, but I don't expect that right away and if a positive trend does develop I don't think that level is in the cards for some time.

There were no pre-market trades.

Just before open b/a was 1.1K:1.3K $1.38/$1.43

09:30-11:07 opened the day with a 111 sell for $1.40. Immediately after open b/a was 300:4K $1.39/42 and at 9:32 200:1.6K $1.39:40. Then came 9:32's 500 $1.39/$1.3960, 9:36's 200 $1.39, 9:37's b/a of ~3.8K:3.3K $1.38/40, 9:39's 2.9K $1.39, 9:40's b/a of 5.8K:3K $1.38/40, 9:52's 700 $1.3963, 9:53's b/a of 1K:4K $1.39/40, 9:55's 502 $1.3963/70, 9:58's b/a of 1K:2.5K $1.39/40, 10:11's b/a of 4K:2.9K $1.39/40, 10:12's ~2.7K $1.40, 10:20's ~2.5K $1.3907, 10:21's 2.6K $1.3970->$1.39 (100), and 10:23's b/a of 4K:3.3K $1.39/40 began extremely low/no-volume $1.39/40.

Volume was interrupted by 10:29's ~3K $1.3988->$1.3950->$1.3999/$1.40. B/a at 10:32 was 4.9K:3.2K $1.39/40, 10:49 6.8K:2.9K $1.39/40. Pecking the bids 100 shares at a time at ~1 minute intervals occurred 11:00-:07. There were a couple pecks of the offer. B/a at 11:05 was 6.1K:3.3K $1.39/40. The period ended on 11:07's 521 $1.39/$1.3935.

11:08-11:16 did a very high-volume drop on 11:08-:09's ~95.6K $1.39->$1.38->$1.37->$1.36 (100), 11:11's ~40.9K $1.36->$1.35, and 11:15-:16's ~33K 1.3510/50->$1.35->$1.33->$1.35->$1.32->$1.33. Looked like some market sell orders, likely from the "west coasties"?

11:17-12:36 began very low/no-volume $1.32/3 on 11:17's 1K $1.3262. B/a at 11:26 was 33.1K:3.3K $1.32/3, 11:39 10.6K:3.6K $1.32/3. Volume was interrupted by 11:52-:56's 40.5K $1.33->$1.3292->$1.3250->$1.33->$1.3240->$1.33->$1.3238->$1.33->$1.3252. B/a at 12:00 was 10.4K:2.7K $1.32/3. Price and volume was interrupted by 12:06-:08's ~32.6K $1.33->$1.3299->$1.3270->$1.33->$1.3335. B/a at 12:33 was 11.4K:4.2K $1.32/3. The period ended on 12:36's 5K $1.3250->$1.33->$1.3250.

12:37-13:34 began very low/no-volume $1.33/4 on 12:37's 8K $1.33->$1.3299->$1.33->$1.3399. B/a 12:44 was 1.9K:1.2K $1.33/4, 12:57 1.8K:1.1K 1.33/4. Price range was interrupted by 12:58-13:00's 8.8K $1.33->$1.32 (~2.8K)->$1.33.

That narrowed the range to $1.33/$1.3370. B/a at 13:03 was 16.9K:800 $1.32/3, 13:27 600:6.9K $1.33/4, 13:38 400:5.9K $1.33/4. The period ended on 13:34's 2.6K $1.33/$1.3370.

13:35-14:37, after five no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.32/3 on 13:38's 3.2K $1.32/3. B/a at 13:40 was 21.6K:6.4K $1.32/3, 14:23 21.9K:5.4K $1.32/3, 14:41 3.8K:4.4K $1.33/4. The period ended on 14:37's 600 $1.33.

14:38-15:02, after five no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.33/4 on 14:43's 200 $1.43. B/a at 14:48 was 5.7K:4.5K $1.33/4. The period ended on 15:02's 150 $1.34.

15:03-15:26, after five no-trades minutes, beganvery low/no-volume $1.34/5 on 15:07's ~7.1K $1.3350->$1.34->$1.3333/$1.34->$1.35 (100). B/a at 15:11 was 600:2.2K $1.34/5. The period ended on 15:26's 600 $1.3450->$1.3401.

15:27-16:00 began low/no-volume $1.3350/$1.34 on 15:31's 800 $1.34->$1.33. B/a at 15:35 was 10.5K:4.8K $1.33/4. A low-volume rise began at 15:44. B/a at 15:53 was 530:3.6K $1.33/5. Then the peak was hit on 15:53's 5.6K $1.3550->$1.35->$1.3592 (3K)->$1.34. B/a at 15:57 was 5K:1K $1.34/5. The day and period ended on 15:59's ~1.1K $1.3463->$1.35 (100) and 16:00's 600 $1.33, a penny above the low of the day.

There were no AH trades.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 16 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 92,937, 21.58% of day's volume, with a $1.3548 VWAP. There were no "larger larger trades" in spite of a volume increase of ~78% and achieving what is, for $CPST recently, a relatively high volume. Note the 11:16-ending period which looked like a market sell order that is responsible for the day's plummet. Over /3rd of day's volume and dropped from $1.39->$1.32 and took buy percentage into the crapper.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  11:07   17067 $1.3900 $1.4000    $23,808.05 $1.3950  3.96% 66.95% 
  11:16  169019 $1.3200 $1.3900   $230,620.99 $1.3645 39.24% 20.75% Incl 11:08 $1.3900 4,500 8,500 8,500 
                                                                         11:09 $1.3700 5,000 5,800 
                                                                         11:09 $1.3800 5,100 11:11 $1.3500 8,700 
                                                                         11:16 $1.3500 7,000 
  12:36  125220 $1.3200 $1.3365   $166,166.77 $1.3270 29.07% 34.59% Incl 11:23 $1.3201 7,500 11:31 $1.3240 5,000 
                                                                         11:35 $1.3299 4,000 11:53 $1.3250 4,281 
                                                                         11:53 $1.3252 5,000 
  13:34   53555 $1.3200 $1.3400    $71,445.19 $1.3341 12.43%  0.38% Incl 12:45 $1.3399 5,000 
  14:37   20469 $1.3200 $1.3301    $27,207.03 $1.3292  4.75% 40.31% 
  15:02    2200 $1.3300 $1.3400     $2,945.72 $1.3390  0.51% 40.68% 
  15:26    8800 $1.3333 $1.3500    $11,773.72 $1.3379  2.04% 40.48% 
  16:00   31242 $1.3300 $1.3592    $42,011.35 $1.3447  7.25% 41.51% Incl 15:48 $1.3391 4,856 15:59 $1.3463 4,200

Take note of the apparent market sell order in the 11:16 period that took pps down to the day's low.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today      0.00%  -5.71%  -0.71%  -5.00%  78.58% 
 Prior     -0.71%   0.00%  -2.08%   0.00%   1.39%

On my minimal chart we see that 11:16-ending period drove us right through the longer-term rising potential support (ascending white line) and the potential $1.34 price-point support of $1.34 (horizontal blue line). Also of note is that it was done with a substantial rise in volume, suggesting increasing strength in the move lower.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits are both descending and converging as the upper limit falls faster than the lower limit. The mid-point is ~$1.48 today.

However, the intra-day behavior, but for the 11:16-ending period, does not support the volume's suggestion of increasing strength down. The 11:16-ending period was the cause and I think it's a one-off. This is supported by some of my unconventional stuff below.

I think we'll stabilize or even rise tomorrow. With our history though it will be hard to close above the longer-term rising support, so that one will likely confirm a break down. I do believe we'll close above the $.34.

Having said that, if I'm wrong, not an unusual occurrence, we could head to $1.4/5.

On my one-year chart there's nothing I want to highlight today. You can easily imagine the effects on the oscillators, understand the 10-day SMA crossed below the 200-day as mentioned would occur,

The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2559 and $1.7256 ($1.2796 and $1.7589 yesterday), are falling and converging.

All in, conventional TA would today suggesting nothing positive unless one were a contrarian thinking the combination of all the oscillators being in oversold and/or at their lower bounds means a reversal must come.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, normally not good, but the short percentage decline was minimal and remains within my desired range (needs re-check) and a bit above the lower range. So it's not a negative. The buy percentage moved up a bit but is still well below what's needed for sustained appreciation. However, in light of the 11:16-ending period's dropping buy percentage to 20.75% from 11:07's 66.95, a recovery to 41%+ by EOD is a big positive for me.

The spread is too wide and if I felt we were entering, or well within a strong down-trend, and was unaware of the 11:16-ending period it would be a big negative. With those considerations though I'm not seeing it in a negative light here - just an effect of one aberrant market sell order as someone exited a large position.

The VWAP's last twenty-four readings deteriorated again, going from 16 negatives and 8 positives to 17 and 7 respectively. Change since 08/15 is -$0.1697, -11.19%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) continue worsening and are -0.4416%, -0.2697%, -0.2275%, -0.1731%, -0.1117%, -0.1021%, -0.0088%, 0.2908%, 0.4090%, and 0.4975%.

All in, I think the buy and short percentages combination is much less negative that they appear, due to the 11:16 period activity. The spread is in the same vein. I see risk in them though and will go "consolidation" here but with a bias of positive near-term movement.

Bill