Saturday, September 17, 2016 5:44:27 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 09/16 2016 EOD
Well, maaaaybe ... My unconventional stuff had short percentage back in a normal range after four consecutive days of abnormally high readings and the spread is less than 1% after slowly declining from 9/9's ~7.5%. This has been a period of extreme consolidation with a weakening bias. Now with the Quadruple Witching and (possible) ATM use, discussed below, past us maybe a return to normalcy, beyond just the short percentage, will begin. If so, I expect strengthening to begin to appear (but I'm biased that way).
This can be supported, if one is an optimist, because the oscillators I watch which have oversold demarcations are all oversold, three for multiple days now, and everything that has a lower bound, but for ADX-related, is at that lower bound. This argues strongly for a reversal but we know things can remain this way for a period much longer than we would anticipate.
So, I wouldn't be an optimist yet. Wait for a more positive general behavior to actually appear.
I'll take my own advice and say that although I continue to look for the reversal, and even keep on expecting it due to an emotional bias in that direction, I'm going neutral until real signs of improvement start to appear.
N.B. I cancelled my GTC buy order. Knowing it can take a long time to leave where we are at I figured I had enough weight in my trading blocks and would put the cash to use elsewhere, as yet undecided.
N.B. With the considerations regarding Quadruple Witching and possibly ATM use by $CPST, I have to consider all the readings for both conventional and unconventional TA, to be suspect as I don't know if or how these might have had effect on the observed behavior, which has been highly unusual.
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I wonder if the recent flatness we've observed is somehow related to the Quadruple Witching discussed next. If that's the case we should see intra-day behavior returning to normal fairly quickly. This could include short percentages and buy percentages, making them once again useful (at least to me).
Harken! After penning (so to speak) the above paragraph I see below that short percentage has indeed made a move back into a normal area.
Of course, I have also suspected that the ATM was being used even though my initial take on the September prohibition was it would last through EOM, but the statement in the filing wasn't clear on that.
Another thing we'll never know.
Today was absolutely very low/no-volume flat with a few one to three-minute volume spikes, open to close. The really exceptional thing, other than the flatness, was the exceptionally large closing block sell of 70,979. What could it be?
I heard on CNBC that today was Quadruple Witching, when expirations occur for index futures, index and stock options, and some single stock futures. Options contracts expire monthly (and some now have weekly contracts) but the third Friday of March, June, September and December have all these expirations at once. Since $CPST has no options now and is not contained in the other instruments, maybe someone sold 70k of $CPST to re-deploy their capital?
We'll never know.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-16:00 opened the day with a 6,489 sell at $1.40 & 1,370 more at $1.40 and immediately began very low/no-volume flat $1.40/1. B/a at 9:31 was 20.9K:900 $1.40/1, 9:38 20.8K:3.4K $1.40/1, 9:42 20.1K:~4.8K $1.40/1, 9:49 20.2K:3.7K $1.40/1.
Volume was interrupted by 10:05's ~26.5K (incl a 9K + 1K looking like a 10K block) $1.40. B/a at 10:24 was 15.8K:5.6K $1.40/1, 10:43 16.1K:3.2K $1.40/1, 10:54 13.6K:3.5K $1.40/1, 11:24 19.2K:4.3K $1.40/1, 11:49 19.7K:3.5K $1.40/1.
Volume was interrupted by 12:09-:11's 21.1K $1.4050/$1.41 (large majority of vol $1.41). B/a at 12:23 19.2K:2.7K $1.40/1, 12:44 20.2K:3.7K $1.40/1, 13:14 20.9K:2.5K $1.40/1, 13:27 19.1K:4.1K $1.40/1, 13:40 19.3K:4.6K $1.40/1, 14:16 14.5K:4.9K $1.40/1, 14:39 14.6K:2.1K $1.40/1.
Volume was interrupted by 14:43-:44's 11.9K $1.4031/$1.4099/$1.41. B/a at 14:46 was 14.9K:1.5K $1.40/1.
Volume was interrupted by 15:17-:18's 6.2K $1.41. B/a at 15:25 was 13.4K:3.1K $1.40/1, 15:39 14.2K:2K $1.40/1. The period and day ended on 15:59's 524 $1.4050->$1.4002$1.41 (24)->$1.40 and 16:00's exceptionally large closing sell of 70,979 & 100 more, both for $1.40.
There were no AH trades.
N.B. With the considerations regarding Quadruple Witching and possibly ATM use by $CPST above, I have to consider all the below to be suspect.
Including the opening and closing trades, there were 5 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 96,468, 39.99% of day's volume, with a $1.4010 VWAP. Excluding the opening and closing trades, there were 3 larger trades totaling 19,000, 7.88% of day's volume, with a $1.4052 VWAP.
In fact, if my suspicion that we've been seeing ATM action again is correct I suspect the descent may cease as last time I was sure the ATM was in use the trading occurred in the $1.4x range and quit when it dropped below that. We'll just have to wait and see if the behavior, especially the flattish trading of the last few days, changes.
And now, considering the possibility that we were somehow affected by "Quadruple Witching", I think more strongly that it will change.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continue converging as the upper limit descent is more rapid than the lower limit descent.
On my one-year chart we have six consecutive closes below the 200-day SMA. The 10-day and 20-day SMAs continue to drop and the 10-day remains below the 20-day. As previously, if we hold the current range the 10 and 20-day SMAs will continue falling at an increasing rate. Unlike yesterday we were been able to hold the current range. With price as low as it is and the witching considerations I'm hopeful this really was the bottom and behavior will begin to change, leaving this flattish behavior behind for a while.
The 10-day SMA is still above the 200-day but the gap has been again approximately halved and is now only ~$0.023. Tomorrow we lose a $1.64 close off the tail so if we are lucky enough to hold $1.40 we'll take that ~$0.023 out and close the gap because the 200-day falls much more slowly right now we'll lose ~$0.20/200 on the 200-day SMA.
The oscillators I watch yesterday had only momentum improve, likely due to the phoney 200-share $1.44 high, while all others weakened. MFI and Williams %R readings were at the lower bound and full stochastic was just above its lower bound. They and RSI were in oversold. Full stochastic hit it's lower bound today. Momentum again improved, suggesting my guess about that 200-share high was not the cause of increasing momentum.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2796 and $1.7589 ($1.2913 and $1.7979 yesterday) continue converging due to the more rapid drop of the upper limit. Regardless, the spread is still so wide that increased volatility is still suggested. Maybe with the witching over, and maybe the ATM too(?), we'll see that long-awaited reversal I've been expecting.
All in, still strongly suggestive of consolidation with a near-term weakening bias.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved, Hallelujah!, in the same direction and the short percentage is back in the normal area (needs re-check), near the lower end. Buy percentage moved further below the area needed for sustained appreciation to be possible. Maybe with short percentage back to "normal" after four consecutive excessive readings the buying will come back in.
The spread, if we take the liberty of calling one penny that, continues reflecting consolidation.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings deteriorated again, going from 15 negatives and 9 positives to 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 08/12 is -$0.1117, -7.38% and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) continue worsening and are -0.2697%, -0.2275%, -0.1731%, -0.1117%, -0.1021%, -0.0088%, 0.2908%, 0.4090%, 0.4975%, and 0.5521%.
All in, the first glimmer of hope for the cessation of this slow VWAP weakening has appeared in the form of improved short percentage.
Bill
Well, maaaaybe ... My unconventional stuff had short percentage back in a normal range after four consecutive days of abnormally high readings and the spread is less than 1% after slowly declining from 9/9's ~7.5%. This has been a period of extreme consolidation with a weakening bias. Now with the Quadruple Witching and (possible) ATM use, discussed below, past us maybe a return to normalcy, beyond just the short percentage, will begin. If so, I expect strengthening to begin to appear (but I'm biased that way).
This can be supported, if one is an optimist, because the oscillators I watch which have oversold demarcations are all oversold, three for multiple days now, and everything that has a lower bound, but for ADX-related, is at that lower bound. This argues strongly for a reversal but we know things can remain this way for a period much longer than we would anticipate.
So, I wouldn't be an optimist yet. Wait for a more positive general behavior to actually appear.
I'll take my own advice and say that although I continue to look for the reversal, and even keep on expecting it due to an emotional bias in that direction, I'm going neutral until real signs of improvement start to appear.
N.B. I cancelled my GTC buy order. Knowing it can take a long time to leave where we are at I figured I had enough weight in my trading blocks and would put the cash to use elsewhere, as yet undecided.
N.B. With the considerations regarding Quadruple Witching and possibly ATM use by $CPST, I have to consider all the readings for both conventional and unconventional TA, to be suspect as I don't know if or how these might have had effect on the observed behavior, which has been highly unusual.
This message will not self-destruct in 5 seconds! It will be repeated below too!
I wonder if the recent flatness we've observed is somehow related to the Quadruple Witching discussed next. If that's the case we should see intra-day behavior returning to normal fairly quickly. This could include short percentages and buy percentages, making them once again useful (at least to me).
Harken! After penning (so to speak) the above paragraph I see below that short percentage has indeed made a move back into a normal area.
Of course, I have also suspected that the ATM was being used even though my initial take on the September prohibition was it would last through EOM, but the statement in the filing wasn't clear on that.
Another thing we'll never know.
Today was absolutely very low/no-volume flat with a few one to three-minute volume spikes, open to close. The really exceptional thing, other than the flatness, was the exceptionally large closing block sell of 70,979. What could it be?
I heard on CNBC that today was Quadruple Witching, when expirations occur for index futures, index and stock options, and some single stock futures. Options contracts expire monthly (and some now have weekly contracts) but the third Friday of March, June, September and December have all these expirations at once. Since $CPST has no options now and is not contained in the other instruments, maybe someone sold 70k of $CPST to re-deploy their capital?
We'll never know.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-16:00 opened the day with a 6,489 sell at $1.40 & 1,370 more at $1.40 and immediately began very low/no-volume flat $1.40/1. B/a at 9:31 was 20.9K:900 $1.40/1, 9:38 20.8K:3.4K $1.40/1, 9:42 20.1K:~4.8K $1.40/1, 9:49 20.2K:3.7K $1.40/1.
Volume was interrupted by 10:05's ~26.5K (incl a 9K + 1K looking like a 10K block) $1.40. B/a at 10:24 was 15.8K:5.6K $1.40/1, 10:43 16.1K:3.2K $1.40/1, 10:54 13.6K:3.5K $1.40/1, 11:24 19.2K:4.3K $1.40/1, 11:49 19.7K:3.5K $1.40/1.
Volume was interrupted by 12:09-:11's 21.1K $1.4050/$1.41 (large majority of vol $1.41). B/a at 12:23 19.2K:2.7K $1.40/1, 12:44 20.2K:3.7K $1.40/1, 13:14 20.9K:2.5K $1.40/1, 13:27 19.1K:4.1K $1.40/1, 13:40 19.3K:4.6K $1.40/1, 14:16 14.5K:4.9K $1.40/1, 14:39 14.6K:2.1K $1.40/1.
Volume was interrupted by 14:43-:44's 11.9K $1.4031/$1.4099/$1.41. B/a at 14:46 was 14.9K:1.5K $1.40/1.
Volume was interrupted by 15:17-:18's 6.2K $1.41. B/a at 15:25 was 13.4K:3.1K $1.40/1, 15:39 14.2K:2K $1.40/1. The period and day ended on 15:59's 524 $1.4050->$1.4002$1.41 (24)->$1.40 and 16:00's exceptionally large closing sell of 70,979 & 100 more, both for $1.40.
There were no AH trades.
N.B. With the considerations regarding Quadruple Witching and possibly ATM use by $CPST above, I have to consider all the below to be suspect.
Including the opening and closing trades, there were 5 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 96,468, 39.99% of day's volume, with a $1.4010 VWAP. Excluding the opening and closing trades, there were 3 larger trades totaling 19,000, 7.88% of day's volume, with a $1.4052 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
16:00 239298 $1.4000 $1.4100 $335,726.19 $1.4030 99.21% 27.00% Incl 09:30 1.4000 6,489 09:54 1.4099 5,000
10:05 1.4000 9,000 11:47 1.4099 5,000
16:00 1.4000 70,979
On my minimal chart everything continues as in consolidation and ever more extreme. A one-penny spread from the open to the close and all below the descending triangle base confirms yesterday's break down as I thought would happen. It was on rising volume but with only a ~4K difference from yesterday I can't say it's significant nor that it suggests increasing strength in a move down.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.71% 0.00% -2.08% 0.00% 1.39%
Prior 0.00% -0.71% 0.70% -0.71% 98.82%
In fact, if my suspicion that we've been seeing ATM action again is correct I suspect the descent may cease as last time I was sure the ATM was in use the trading occurred in the $1.4x range and quit when it dropped below that. We'll just have to wait and see if the behavior, especially the flattish trading of the last few days, changes.
And now, considering the possibility that we were somehow affected by "Quadruple Witching", I think more strongly that it will change.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continue converging as the upper limit descent is more rapid than the lower limit descent.
On my one-year chart we have six consecutive closes below the 200-day SMA. The 10-day and 20-day SMAs continue to drop and the 10-day remains below the 20-day. As previously, if we hold the current range the 10 and 20-day SMAs will continue falling at an increasing rate. Unlike yesterday we were been able to hold the current range. With price as low as it is and the witching considerations I'm hopeful this really was the bottom and behavior will begin to change, leaving this flattish behavior behind for a while.
The 10-day SMA is still above the 200-day but the gap has been again approximately halved and is now only ~$0.023. Tomorrow we lose a $1.64 close off the tail so if we are lucky enough to hold $1.40 we'll take that ~$0.023 out and close the gap because the 200-day falls much more slowly right now we'll lose ~$0.20/200 on the 200-day SMA.
The oscillators I watch yesterday had only momentum improve, likely due to the phoney 200-share $1.44 high, while all others weakened. MFI and Williams %R readings were at the lower bound and full stochastic was just above its lower bound. They and RSI were in oversold. Full stochastic hit it's lower bound today. Momentum again improved, suggesting my guess about that 200-share high was not the cause of increasing momentum.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2796 and $1.7589 ($1.2913 and $1.7979 yesterday) continue converging due to the more rapid drop of the upper limit. Regardless, the spread is still so wide that increased volatility is still suggested. Maybe with the witching over, and maybe the ATM too(?), we'll see that long-awaited reversal I've been expecting.
All in, still strongly suggestive of consolidation with a near-term weakening bias.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved, Hallelujah!, in the same direction and the short percentage is back in the normal area (needs re-check), near the lower end. Buy percentage moved further below the area needed for sustained appreciation to be possible. Maybe with short percentage back to "normal" after four consecutive excessive readings the buying will come back in.
The spread, if we take the liberty of calling one penny that, continues reflecting consolidation.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings deteriorated again, going from 15 negatives and 9 positives to 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 08/12 is -$0.1117, -7.38% and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) continue worsening and are -0.2697%, -0.2275%, -0.1731%, -0.1117%, -0.1021%, -0.0088%, 0.2908%, 0.4090%, 0.4975%, and 0.5521%.
All in, the first glimmer of hope for the cessation of this slow VWAP weakening has appeared in the form of improved short percentage.
Bill
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