Wednesday, September 14, 2016 9:19:16 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 09/13 2016 EOD
Everything continues to suggest consolidation. My bias for a near-term move, most likely to the positive, is slightly weakened today as the traditional TA had no immediate positive follow-through and my unconventional stuff had conflicting signals - positive from buy percentage, neutral from spread and negative from short percentage and VWAP trend. Having said that, as I note below, this is looking a lot like a short-term bottoming process and I might be a little over-cautious in my current assessment.
I still think the move that comes will be a short-term positive, but that thinking could be a result of an emotional bias - nothing but past behavior really supports the feeling that a turn up is the most likely next move.
After a strong $1.45 open, including an additional 17K at that price, a period of no trades was followed by low/medium-volume weakening to as low as $1.41 at 9:41 followed by a re-trace to $1.43/4 by 9:45. Low-volume $1.42/4 began and most of the early action was hitting the lower prices, including a 10K $1.42. A b/a 22.4K:1.4K $1.4/2 appeared at ~10:30 ("left coasties"?) and the quantity imbalance had no immediate effect although for a short period most trade was closer/at $1.42. But that didn't last long as around 10:30 it was more to $1.41, again ignoring "supply/demand" imbalances as the bots did a lot of 100-share "pecking" with most trades at $1.41/$1.41xx. It was even less balanced at 11:21 with 33.9K:4.6K $1.41/2, but for only a few minutes as the bots withdrew the second 15K bid. Around 11:50 the pecking began hitting the asks more frequently than the bids but it reversed after 13:00.
It should be noted, as a highlight, that from ~10:30 through the close we had an extremely long flattish $1.41/42 with predominately no-volume interrupted by the low-volume pecking on a semi-regular basis and infrequently by a one/two-minute volume spike.
Could be shorters carefully covering as the 8/31/16 report showed a reduction of 9.06%. If this is the case the odds of a later price drop of any magnitude would be reduced ... Unless the shorters are buying from MMs that are naked-shorting, in which case the MMs would lower the market to do their covering buys if they have any profit increase available by doing so. The reason I qualify that scenario is their view into the market might suggest insufficient liquidity and/or buying demand to make the risk/reward favorable. Since they ostensibly have a better view into market than do we, they would be in a position to more effectively judge the situation.
Note that the offers quantity began slowly increasing to more substantial numbers after noon. Disturbing though is that the between-the-b/a trades seemed biased to below the mid-point as the buy percentage slowly deteriorated from 12:45 onward.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 8,551 buy for $1.45, a 17K $1.45 blk, & 45 more at $1.45. 9:31-9:40's no-trades saw b/a at 9:33 of 13.1K:1.9K $1.41/4, 9:39 200:900 $1.42/4. Then came 9:41's ~6.1K $1.4390->$1.42->$1.4348 (4.2K) ->$1.42->$1.41->$1.43, 10:43's b/a of 15.5K:900 $1.41/4, 9:45's ~3K $1.44->$1.43, 9:48's b/a of 300:700 $1.43/4, 9:49's ~1.1K $1.4380->$1.44->$1.4360->$1.43, 9:52's b/a of 1K:1.2K $1.42/4, 9:52's 6.7K $1.4334 (6.5K)->$1.44->$1.42, and the period ended on 9:55's ~2.8K $1.4302 (2.5K)->$1.42.
9:56-10:32 began with 9:56's b/a of 1.1:1.6K $1.42/4 and started very low/no-volume $1.42/3, after six no-trades minutes, on 10:02's 10.2K (incl 10K $1.42 blk) $1.44->$1.42. B/a at 10:07 was 1.1:5.1K $1.42/4, 10:14 1K:3.7K $1.42/4, 10:19 900:4K $1.42/3, 10:31 22.4K:1.4K $1.4/2. The period ended on 10:32's 2K $1.4190/$1.42.
10:33-15:38, after five no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.41/2 $1.41/2 on 10:38's ~4.2K $1.4101->$1.41->$1.4150->$1.41. B/a at 10:42 was 23K:2.5K $1.41/2, 11:00 20.6K:4.7K $1.41/2. Volume was interrupted by 11:00's ~12.1K $1.42->$1.4150->$$1.42->$1.4150->$1.41. B/a at 11:03 was 19.6K:6K $1.41/2, 11:21 33.9K:4.6K $1.41/2, 11:29 20.5K:4.6K $1.41/2. Volume was interrupted by 10:44's 7.4K $1.41 and 11:46's 9.1K $1.4199>$1.42. B/a at 11:48 was 26.1K:1.8K $1.41/2, 12:06 27.5K:1.7K $1.41/2, 12:20 26.6K:4.7K $1.41/2, 12:36 25.7K:6.1K $1.4/2, 12:48 26.1K:6k $1.41/2, 13:07 24.2K:7.3K $1.41/2, 13:27 22.9K:6.2K $1.41/2, 13:40 22.8K:6.2K $1.41/2, 13:54 22.9K:6.6K $1.41/2, 14:42 23.5K:5.7K $1.41/2, 14:53 24.7K:6.8K $1.41/2, 15:08 21.8K:6.5K $1.41/2, 15:36 25.9K:5.4K $1.41/2. I ended the period, for reasons of increasing volume and volatility, on 15:38's 600 $1.41/$1.4138.
15:39-16:00 began with 15:39's 7.7K $1.42->$1.4150->$1.41, did 15:43's ~24.3K $1.41/$1.4199, and began low-volume $1.41/$1.42. B/a at 15:52 was 17.2K:2.3K $1.41/2, 15:55 15.9K:1.1K $1.41/2. The period and day ended on 15:59's 844 $1.41/2 and 16:00's 703 sell for $1.43, giving us a flat close, right at the day's mid-point, on rising volume.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 69,596, 35.71% of day's volume, with a $1.4322 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 9 larger trades totaling 61,045, 31.32% of day's volume, with a $1.4297 VWAP. As has been the case the last couple days, for the volume today the number and percentage of day's volume constituted by the larger trades are a little high. We had a couple "larger larger trades" that pushed the percentage up though , so without them the percentage would be a bit low.
The VWAPs are above the day's $1.4217. With the extreme flatness seen most of the day I'm guessing this was shorters covering, not retail investors or traders. This would fit with the most recent short interest report - the trend has been reducing short interest, mostly, for some time now.
The oddity here is a rising volume on such a flat day. This is one of the things that makes me think it was shorters covering. Normal retailers, momo, and swing traders will cause higher volatility during the day. We got very little of that today.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart it's looking increasingly like consolidation wherein a bottom is forming. We've three days with a low of $1.41 on high volume, low volume and now rising volume. Two days of a flat close. All that has been accompanied by falling highs. The question here is how long do we go sideways. My guess is it will be a relatively short period and may even be ending now, suggested by the volume increasing even as we have a flat day. Further, I "cheated" and looked at my unconventional stuff's buy percentage and during today's flatness we managed to end with a reasonably positive value.
We also had a change in the experimental 13-period Bollinger band. The limits are diverging as the upper limit reduces it's rate of decline and the lower limit continues falling at about the same recent rate. This suggests a likely increase in near-term volatility. I would not be surprised to see the very short-term consolidation ended in a day or two. A short, sharp spike down, intra-day, followed by a fast recovery the same day or in the next couple days since we would have a Friday in that period.
On my one-year chart the 10-day and 20-day SMAs continue to drop and the 10-day remains below the 20-day. If we hold the current range the 10 and 20-day SMAs will continue falling at an increasing rate.
The 10-day is likely to cross below the 50-day tomorrow unless we get a close above ... $1.74! Anyone give me odds?
Regarding the 50-day, today's flat close it rising. If we can hold, it can keep rising 10 days. with substantial price appreciation during that period, to ~$1.45 followed by $1.55 over the subsequent nine days, the 50-day will be falling.
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday went mixed, today had a flat RSI, accumulation/distribution and Williams %R, marginal improvement in MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related, and marginally weakening momentum and full stochastic. After yesterday's mix suggesting improvement, today's mix being more flat, in aggregate, leaves me bereft of clues to "what's next". Typical during consolidation, I guess, even if a move is coming.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3462 and $1.8368 ($1.3774 and $1.8534 yesterday), switched from converging to diverging as the upper limit decreased its rate of decline as the lower limit continued at roughly the same rate. The mid-point continues falling with it now ~$1.59.
All in, the typical very short-term consolidation behavior offers no immediate clues but the trend, as I see it, does suggest a movement is almost upon us and my belief is it's more likely to the up side.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and we have a short percentage higher than my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage in the area that would allow sustained appreciation. The high short percentage is a concern. I didn't see signs of real shorting, in fact the opposite was my best guess, so I have to assume most was normal MM naked shorts as they had no short-term long position they handled sell orders from customers.
The buy percentage is welcome but not reliable here IMO. The intra-day buy percentage started quite high and generally deteriorated most of the day, as detailed above. So I'm reading this as really weaker than it suggests, probably more equivalent to something in the mid-to-upper 4x% range. This has in the past seen upward movements sometimes and other times not. So it does say appreciation is possible while the low-4x% and below seldom is followed immediately by appreciation.
The spread is now solidly in the area of consolidation. So it offers no clue for what any near-term move might be.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 13 negatives and 11 positives. Change since 08/09 is -$0.0562, -3.80%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are -0.1117%, -0.1021%, -0.0088%, 0.2908%, 0.4090%, 0.4975%, 0.5521%, 0.4824%, 0.5606%, and 0.7499%.
All in, this stuff leaves me near-term slightly negative as short and buy percentage potentially conflict (although my assessment of short percentage is less negative than the value suggests) and the VWAP trend continues weakening. Yes, it's typical of consolidation and even a potential bottoming process. But a positive sign is needed.
Bill
Everything continues to suggest consolidation. My bias for a near-term move, most likely to the positive, is slightly weakened today as the traditional TA had no immediate positive follow-through and my unconventional stuff had conflicting signals - positive from buy percentage, neutral from spread and negative from short percentage and VWAP trend. Having said that, as I note below, this is looking a lot like a short-term bottoming process and I might be a little over-cautious in my current assessment.
I still think the move that comes will be a short-term positive, but that thinking could be a result of an emotional bias - nothing but past behavior really supports the feeling that a turn up is the most likely next move.
After a strong $1.45 open, including an additional 17K at that price, a period of no trades was followed by low/medium-volume weakening to as low as $1.41 at 9:41 followed by a re-trace to $1.43/4 by 9:45. Low-volume $1.42/4 began and most of the early action was hitting the lower prices, including a 10K $1.42. A b/a 22.4K:1.4K $1.4/2 appeared at ~10:30 ("left coasties"?) and the quantity imbalance had no immediate effect although for a short period most trade was closer/at $1.42. But that didn't last long as around 10:30 it was more to $1.41, again ignoring "supply/demand" imbalances as the bots did a lot of 100-share "pecking" with most trades at $1.41/$1.41xx. It was even less balanced at 11:21 with 33.9K:4.6K $1.41/2, but for only a few minutes as the bots withdrew the second 15K bid. Around 11:50 the pecking began hitting the asks more frequently than the bids but it reversed after 13:00.
It should be noted, as a highlight, that from ~10:30 through the close we had an extremely long flattish $1.41/42 with predominately no-volume interrupted by the low-volume pecking on a semi-regular basis and infrequently by a one/two-minute volume spike.
Could be shorters carefully covering as the 8/31/16 report showed a reduction of 9.06%. If this is the case the odds of a later price drop of any magnitude would be reduced ... Unless the shorters are buying from MMs that are naked-shorting, in which case the MMs would lower the market to do their covering buys if they have any profit increase available by doing so. The reason I qualify that scenario is their view into the market might suggest insufficient liquidity and/or buying demand to make the risk/reward favorable. Since they ostensibly have a better view into market than do we, they would be in a position to more effectively judge the situation.
Note that the offers quantity began slowly increasing to more substantial numbers after noon. Disturbing though is that the between-the-b/a trades seemed biased to below the mid-point as the buy percentage slowly deteriorated from 12:45 onward.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 8,551 buy for $1.45, a 17K $1.45 blk, & 45 more at $1.45. 9:31-9:40's no-trades saw b/a at 9:33 of 13.1K:1.9K $1.41/4, 9:39 200:900 $1.42/4. Then came 9:41's ~6.1K $1.4390->$1.42->$1.4348 (4.2K) ->$1.42->$1.41->$1.43, 10:43's b/a of 15.5K:900 $1.41/4, 9:45's ~3K $1.44->$1.43, 9:48's b/a of 300:700 $1.43/4, 9:49's ~1.1K $1.4380->$1.44->$1.4360->$1.43, 9:52's b/a of 1K:1.2K $1.42/4, 9:52's 6.7K $1.4334 (6.5K)->$1.44->$1.42, and the period ended on 9:55's ~2.8K $1.4302 (2.5K)->$1.42.
9:56-10:32 began with 9:56's b/a of 1.1:1.6K $1.42/4 and started very low/no-volume $1.42/3, after six no-trades minutes, on 10:02's 10.2K (incl 10K $1.42 blk) $1.44->$1.42. B/a at 10:07 was 1.1:5.1K $1.42/4, 10:14 1K:3.7K $1.42/4, 10:19 900:4K $1.42/3, 10:31 22.4K:1.4K $1.4/2. The period ended on 10:32's 2K $1.4190/$1.42.
10:33-15:38, after five no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.41/2 $1.41/2 on 10:38's ~4.2K $1.4101->$1.41->$1.4150->$1.41. B/a at 10:42 was 23K:2.5K $1.41/2, 11:00 20.6K:4.7K $1.41/2. Volume was interrupted by 11:00's ~12.1K $1.42->$1.4150->$$1.42->$1.4150->$1.41. B/a at 11:03 was 19.6K:6K $1.41/2, 11:21 33.9K:4.6K $1.41/2, 11:29 20.5K:4.6K $1.41/2. Volume was interrupted by 10:44's 7.4K $1.41 and 11:46's 9.1K $1.4199>$1.42. B/a at 11:48 was 26.1K:1.8K $1.41/2, 12:06 27.5K:1.7K $1.41/2, 12:20 26.6K:4.7K $1.41/2, 12:36 25.7K:6.1K $1.4/2, 12:48 26.1K:6k $1.41/2, 13:07 24.2K:7.3K $1.41/2, 13:27 22.9K:6.2K $1.41/2, 13:40 22.8K:6.2K $1.41/2, 13:54 22.9K:6.6K $1.41/2, 14:42 23.5K:5.7K $1.41/2, 14:53 24.7K:6.8K $1.41/2, 15:08 21.8K:6.5K $1.41/2, 15:36 25.9K:5.4K $1.41/2. I ended the period, for reasons of increasing volume and volatility, on 15:38's 600 $1.41/$1.4138.
15:39-16:00 began with 15:39's 7.7K $1.42->$1.4150->$1.41, did 15:43's ~24.3K $1.41/$1.4199, and began low-volume $1.41/$1.42. B/a at 15:52 was 17.2K:2.3K $1.41/2, 15:55 15.9K:1.1K $1.41/2. The period and day ended on 15:59's 844 $1.41/2 and 16:00's 703 sell for $1.43, giving us a flat close, right at the day's mid-point, on rising volume.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 69,596, 35.71% of day's volume, with a $1.4322 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 9 larger trades totaling 61,045, 31.32% of day's volume, with a $1.4297 VWAP. As has been the case the last couple days, for the volume today the number and percentage of day's volume constituted by the larger trades are a little high. We had a couple "larger larger trades" that pushed the percentage up though , so without them the percentage would be a bit low.
The VWAPs are above the day's $1.4217. With the extreme flatness seen most of the day I'm guessing this was shorters covering, not retail investors or traders. This would fit with the most recent short interest report - the trend has been reducing short interest, mostly, for some time now.
Note the VWAP trend even though we had such flat day. As mentioned above, the buy percentage told us this was happening as it generally dropped all day long, with the usual fluctuations. This is demonstrated using a reasonable starting point of 11:15's ~66%, after the early trading effects had been diluted out, and the ending value of ~54%. Some of the flatness might be an effect of $CPST presenting at Rodman & Renshaw today? I don't know and never will.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:55 45185 $1.4100 $1.4500 $65,169.03 $1.4423 23.18% 90.96% Incl 09:30 $1.4500 8,551 17,000
09:41 $1.4348 4,200 09:52 $1.4334 6,500
10:32 14750 $1.4190 $1.4400 $20,957.39 $1.4208 7.57% 73.07% Incl 10:02 $1.4200 10,000
15:38 88290 $1.4100 $1.4200 $124,926.26 $1.4150 45.30% 57.76% Incl 10:39 $1.4130 4,000 11:00 $1.4200 4,700
15:12 $1.4150 5,000
16:00 44568 $1.4100 $1.4300 $63,046.21 $1.4146 22.87% 54.30% Incl 15:43 $1.4191 4,751 $1.4186 4,894
The oddity here is a rising volume on such a flat day. This is one of the things that makes me think it was shorters covering. Normal retailers, momo, and swing traders will cause higher volatility during the day. We got very little of that today.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Well, today broke the recent trend, other than the low being flat for the third day (Thank goodness! Coulda been worse, as we all know). A better open, flat low, only marginally lower high and a flat close continue to make me think "consolidation" prior to a move. The outlier is the volume. This kind of volume on such a day is out of character. My best guess, noted above, is that shorters took advantage to do covering buys. I think they are quite adept at doing so without moving price much. I'm sure some of them are also "good customers" of one or more MMs, engendering a degree of cooperation us unwashed masses could never obtain.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.84% 0.00% -1.36% 0.00% 23.79%
Prior -4.73% 0.00% -3.29% 1.42% -52.28%
On my minimal chart it's looking increasingly like consolidation wherein a bottom is forming. We've three days with a low of $1.41 on high volume, low volume and now rising volume. Two days of a flat close. All that has been accompanied by falling highs. The question here is how long do we go sideways. My guess is it will be a relatively short period and may even be ending now, suggested by the volume increasing even as we have a flat day. Further, I "cheated" and looked at my unconventional stuff's buy percentage and during today's flatness we managed to end with a reasonably positive value.
We also had a change in the experimental 13-period Bollinger band. The limits are diverging as the upper limit reduces it's rate of decline and the lower limit continues falling at about the same recent rate. This suggests a likely increase in near-term volatility. I would not be surprised to see the very short-term consolidation ended in a day or two. A short, sharp spike down, intra-day, followed by a fast recovery the same day or in the next couple days since we would have a Friday in that period.
On my one-year chart the 10-day and 20-day SMAs continue to drop and the 10-day remains below the 20-day. If we hold the current range the 10 and 20-day SMAs will continue falling at an increasing rate.
The 10-day is likely to cross below the 50-day tomorrow unless we get a close above ... $1.74! Anyone give me odds?
Regarding the 50-day, today's flat close it rising. If we can hold, it can keep rising 10 days. with substantial price appreciation during that period, to ~$1.45 followed by $1.55 over the subsequent nine days, the 50-day will be falling.
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday went mixed, today had a flat RSI, accumulation/distribution and Williams %R, marginal improvement in MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related, and marginally weakening momentum and full stochastic. After yesterday's mix suggesting improvement, today's mix being more flat, in aggregate, leaves me bereft of clues to "what's next". Typical during consolidation, I guess, even if a move is coming.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3462 and $1.8368 ($1.3774 and $1.8534 yesterday), switched from converging to diverging as the upper limit decreased its rate of decline as the lower limit continued at roughly the same rate. The mid-point continues falling with it now ~$1.59.
All in, the typical very short-term consolidation behavior offers no immediate clues but the trend, as I see it, does suggest a movement is almost upon us and my belief is it's more likely to the up side.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and we have a short percentage higher than my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage in the area that would allow sustained appreciation. The high short percentage is a concern. I didn't see signs of real shorting, in fact the opposite was my best guess, so I have to assume most was normal MM naked shorts as they had no short-term long position they handled sell orders from customers.
The buy percentage is welcome but not reliable here IMO. The intra-day buy percentage started quite high and generally deteriorated most of the day, as detailed above. So I'm reading this as really weaker than it suggests, probably more equivalent to something in the mid-to-upper 4x% range. This has in the past seen upward movements sometimes and other times not. So it does say appreciation is possible while the low-4x% and below seldom is followed immediately by appreciation.
The spread is now solidly in the area of consolidation. So it offers no clue for what any near-term move might be.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 13 negatives and 11 positives. Change since 08/09 is -$0.0562, -3.80%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are -0.1117%, -0.1021%, -0.0088%, 0.2908%, 0.4090%, 0.4975%, 0.5521%, 0.4824%, 0.5606%, and 0.7499%.
All in, this stuff leaves me near-term slightly negative as short and buy percentage potentially conflict (although my assessment of short percentage is less negative than the value suggests) and the VWAP trend continues weakening. Yes, it's typical of consolidation and even a potential bottoming process. But a positive sign is needed.
Bill
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