Replies to post #27545 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 09/14 2016 EOD

Nothing today suggests anything good near-term. I'm expecting weakness and likely a challenge to the $1.37, or with overshoot even $1.35 today.

The day opened low, $1.41, and immediately began going sideways $1.41/2, and no higher or lower, until 10:32 moved to $1.42/3. During this period the b/a quantity was initially heavy on the bid side ~9:36 to ~9:50. Then it became generally more balanced with variations on both sides until around 10:30 when a fairly consistent imbalance to the buy side came back and the range moved up that one penny.

Then a "large" minute of ~10K at 12:25 brought range down to $1.41/2, where it stayed, at extremely low/no-volume through the end of the day. The b/a imbalance during this period was generally heavy to the buy side, with some brief interruptions. But as is so often the case, that didn't help VWAP or even intra-day price or buy percentage range upward at all.

The net result was a close at the low of the day, $1.41, the same and the open.

There were no pre-market trades.

09:30-10:24 opened the day with a 642 sell for $1.41 and three odd lots for $1.41 totaling 35 shares. Then came 9:33's b/a of 13.2K:2.6K $1.41/3, 9:36's 300 $1.42, 9:36's b/a of 100:2.6K $1.42/3, 9:36's b/a of 14.1K:6.6K $1.41/3, 9:41's 641 $1.41/2, 9:46's 100 $1.41, 9:47's b/a 15.1K:2.4K $1.41/2, 9:47's 1.1K $1.41, 9:48's ~8.4K $1.41/$1.4199 (5K), 9:50's 100 $1.42, 9:51's ~5.7K $1.4150->$1.42->$1.4137->$1.41, and 9:52's b/a of 6.1K:6.3K $1.41/2. That began very low/no-volume $1.41/2. B/a at 9:58 was 4.6K:6.8K $1.41/2, 10:15 6K:5.7K $1.41/2. The period ended on 10:24's ~4.8K $1.42.

10:25-10:57, after eight no-trades minutes began extremelylow/no-volume (e.g. 10:47-:56 no trades) $1.42xx/$1.43 on 10:32's ~1.3K $1.425->$1.4262->$1.42. B/a at 10:38 was 100:3.2K $1.42/3. Range briefly contracted to $1.41xx/$1.42xx when the 10:46 b/a 10.8K:2.3K $1.41/3 appeared but went back to a wider $1.41xx/$1.43 by 10:57. B/a at 10:52 was 11K:2.3K $1.41/3. The period ended on 10:57's 315 $1.43.

10:58-15:48, after three no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.4165/$1.42 on 11:01's 80 odd lot $1.4202. B/a at 11:25 was 13.1K:1.4K $1.41/2.

Volume was interrupted by 11:25's 7.1K $1.4165/$1.42. B/a at 11:41 was 12.2K:1.7K $1.41/2, 12:22 12.9K:3.7K $1.41/2.

Volume & price were interrupted by 12:25's 10K (9K & 1K) $1.41. B/a at 12:26 was 11.3K:2.7K $1.41/2.

The next trades began at 12:37 and were all 100-500 share trades at $1.41 until 12:45 and :47 did 3K & 2K respectively for $1.4160. B/a at 12:49 was 9.9K:4.2K $1.41/2.

Range of $1.41/2 began at 12:51. B/a at 13:09 was 10.7K:5.1K $1.41/2, 13:35 11.9K:4.9K $1.41/2.

Volume was interrupted by 13:48's 5K $1.4199 and 13:56's ~8.5K $1.41. B/a at 13:56 was 5.3K:7K $1.41/2, 14:33 4.7K:5.1K $1.42, 14:48 9.4K:4.9K $1.41/2.

Volume was interrupted by 14:49's 8K $1.4110. B/a at 15:12 was 9.6K:5.4K $1.41/2, 15:39 9.6K:4.3K $1.41/2. I cut the period here to isolate the volume increase more volatile price swings (i.e. a swing of a full penny instead of a fractional penny most of the time), although still narrow, seen near EOD.

15:49-16:00 began low-volume $1.41/2 on 15:49's 2.3K $1.42->$1.4125. B/a at 15:52 was 6.8K:2.4K $1.41/2, 15:57 11.6K:2K $1.41/2. The period and day ended on 15:59's 358 $1.42->$1.41 and 16:00's 267 $1.41.

There were no AH trades.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 5 larger trades (>=5a, 0 4K+K) totaling 32,000, 26.74% of day's volume, with a $1.4143 VWAP, slightly below the day's $1.4150. There was one "larger larger trade", a 9K combined with a 1K for $1.41. The count of larger trades is probably in a normal range for the day's volume and the percentage of day's volume is in a normal area.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  10:24   39599 $1.4100 $1.4200    $56,072.27 $1.4160 33.09% 47.57% Incl 09:48 $1.4199 5,000 09:54 $1.4162 5,000 
  10:57    6033 $1.4160 $1.4300     $8,591.33 $1.4241  5.04% 46.28% 
  15:48   63083 $1.4100 $1.4200    $89,156.36 $1.4133 52.72% 40.66% Incl 12:25 $1.4100 9,000 13:48 $1.4199 5,000 
                                                                         14:49 $1.4110 8,000 
  16:00    8267 $1.4100 $1.4200    $11,714.74 $1.4170  6.91% 42.42%

The buy percentage was on the decline all day but for 11:16-12:15 when it managed to go from 46.94% to 56.03% before resuming the decline with an interruption on 13:00's 50.32%. At 15:30 it was down to 40.38%. The ending VWAP of $1.415 fits with what was seen intra-day and the buy percentage behavior.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today     -2.76%   0.00%  -1.38%  -1.40% -38.61% 
 Prior      2.84%   0.00%  -1.36%   0.00%  23.79%

Today's movements broke our trend by opening and closing lower with a lower high. The good news is that volume was down substantially, and continues the general trend of reducing volume consistent with consolidation and/or getting ready to make a noticeable move. I've been betting (mentally) that we are getting to reverse but have "hedged" with a GTC order at $1.37 JIC (Just In Case). Hitting that level would be consistent with both starting another leg down and the last gasp as a bottom is made and the reversal finally begins.

On my minimal chart it continues looking like consolidation wherein a bottom is forming. However, at the microscopic level we have a descending right triangle, but only three or four days in length, which is really to short to qualify for Bulkowski's Descending Triangles, where he notes { Breakout: Can be in any direction but is downward 64% of the time. } But if it does break upward it has excellent performance, especially if we start an up trend: { Look for triangles with upward breakouts near the start of an up-trend. }

I emphasize our triangle is really microscopic and likely Bulkowski's notes don't apply.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger band limits continue diverging as the upper limit rate of descent is less than that of the lower limit. As mentioned before, the should foretell coming volatility. However, I'm about to think it's just playing with me after watching this snail-like behavior for several days now.

On my one-year chart we have closed below the 200-day SMA four days now. The 10-day and 20-day SMAs continue to drop and the 10-day remains below the 20-day. As with yesterday, if we hold the current range the 10 and 20-day SMAs will continue falling at an increasing rate.

Yesterday I said { The 10-day is likely to cross below the 50-day tomorrow unless we get a close above ... $1.74! Anyone give me odds? :-) } Didn't do it today, but with $0.011 separating them and the next 10-day close to fall off the tail being $1.71 I'm pretty sure we'll do it tomorrow sans a huge rise.

Even at these levels we still have 9 days of rise left in the 50-day SMA if we can hold here.

That reminds me - we made the "Golden Cross" back on 8/26. Hasn't worked out well so far.

The oscillators I watch yesterday were mixed such that I could draw no clue from them, even with several in oversold which I forgot to mention. Today every one of them weakened and RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic are all deeply, but for RSI, in oversold. This suggests a turn up should come but we know from experience we don't know when, or really, even "if" that will happen in our lifetimes.

The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3157 and $1.8212 ($1.3462 and $1.8368 yesterday), as mentioned, are diverging due the the lower limit's more rapid decline. The mid-point is dropping so even if we do reverse that mid-point suggests we might have topped out around $1.57 if we had reversed and tried to run up today.

All in, "no good this way comes", unless one believes the low volume and oversold conditions are enough to get us reversed.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and the short percentage is even further above my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage dropped far below what's needed for appreciation.

Yesterday, discussing the high short percentage, I said { ... we have a short percentage higher than my desired range (needs re-check) ... The high short percentage is a concern. I didn't see signs of real shorting, in fact the opposite was my best guess, so I have to assume most was normal MM naked shorts as they had no short-term long position they handled sell orders from customers. }

After seeing today's action, maybe I need to learn something here - regardless of cause, when short percentage gets this high be wary? So this lesson combined with today's reading would lead me to expect near-term weakness.

Yesterday, discussing the "high" buy percentage, I noted { ... welcome but not reliable here IMO. The intra-day buy percentage started quite high and generally deteriorated most of the day, ... I'm reading this as really weaker than it suggests, probably more equivalent to ... mid-to-upper 4x% range. .. So it does say appreciation is possible while the low-4x% and below seldom is followed immediately by appreciation. }

Well, today follows that with a buy percentage much lower all day long. I might have been too generous with "mid-to-upper 4x% range". It looks like "low-to-mid 4x% range" would have been more accurate. Oh well, guestimating is tough sometimes. Anyway, when I next see a profile similar to yesterday's I'll expect a much worse percentage the next day unless there's some significant offsetting factor, above my "best guess" as to cause.

Today's reading has no ambiguity - near-term weakness is strongly suggested by the buy percentage,

The spread continues contracting and suggesting we are in consolidation. Today;s spread was narrow enough that I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of break, and likely with increasing volume, tomorrow.

The VWAP's last twenty-four readings deteriorated again, going from 13 negatives and 11 positives to 14 and 10 respectively. Change since 08/10 -$0.0777, -5.21%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) continues worsening and are -0.1731%, -0.1117%, -0.1021%, -0.0088%, 0.2908%, 0.4090%, 0.4975%, 0.5521%, 0.4824%, and 0.5606%.

All in, near-term weakness can be expected to continue.

Bill