Friday, June 10, 2016 9:30:45 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/09 2016 EOD
Today's readings and commentary are mostly meaningless because of the Q4/FYE '16 reporting this evening. We'll now need to await development of a trend, probably three days or so, before I think this stuff starts to become useful again. Having said that, a beat on the losses (ignoring the lie produced by not factoring in dilution) and revenues inline may cause an earlier trend development.
For the above reasons, I'll be less detailed today.
Intra-day began with the typical open high and fall (picture a long arcing water-slide 9:30-11:35) during which buy percentage slid down to ~25.6% by 11:45. Then we got a long flattish low/no-volume $1.46/7 (interrupted by a couple volume and price spike 13:13-:14) followed by a final drop at 14:54 to $1.45/6 and flattish through 15:45. Note before the final drop the buy percentage had progressed to ~40% at 13:30 and weakened to ~37.7% by 14:45. After the final drop, 15:00 onward maintained above 44%.
This all made me think this was a planned push lower to allow buying at lower prices. OTOH, might have been early exits by folks afraid of the Q/FY reporting and MMs doing their normal naked short and covering buys at lower prices.
We'll never know.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 4,304 buy for $1.52 & ~2.65K more $1.5135/$1.52. Then came 9:33's 100 $1.50 (1st intra-day low), 9:34-:44's no-trades, 9:45-:46's 100 ea. $1.51, 9:51's 850 $1.50, and 9:54's 2.1K $1.5025/$1.51. 9:55's 4K $1.50 ended the period.
09:56-10:27 began a slow, halting, low/no-volume decline on 9:56's ~1.8K $1.50->$1.49 (new low), hitting 10:04's ~3.8K $1.50->$1.48 (new low), and 10:27's ~3.9K $1.48->$1.47 (new low) ended the period.
10:28-11:26, after five no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.47/8, except for 10:27's 4K $1.4750 and at 10:50 b/a became ~6.5K:3.3K $1.47/8. 11:26's 5.8K $1.47/8 ended the period.
11:27-14:53 began low/medium-volume steps lower on 11:27's ~9K $1.47->$1.4630 (new low) ->$1.47, hit $1.46 (new low) on 11:34's ~5.6K $1.4650->$1.46 to bottom out. Then came variable-volume, mostly no/low-volume, $1.46/7. At 11:42 b/a was 15.6K:~8K $1.46/7, 12:05 ~11.7K:7.4K $1.46/7, 13:00 9.3K:10.1K $1.46/7. Volume and price were interrupted by 13:13-:14's 25.5K $1.4650->$1.47->$1.49->$1.47 and 13:21's ~6.8K $1.4626->$1.47->$1.4675 and b/a became ~9.9K:2.8K. 14:09 had b/a ~7.5K:3.4K $1.46/7, 14:40 b/a was 2.4K:8.2K $1.46/7. 14:53's ~10.6K $1.46 ended the period.
14:54-15:43 did a move down on 14:54's ~2.3K $1.45/$1.4550 (new low) and began mostly very low/no-volume $1.45/6, interrupted by 14:59's 27.2K, $1.4501 (2K) and 25.1K $1.46. At 13:03 b/a was 10.2K:3.1K $1.45/6, 5:37 b/a 13.5K:4.8K $1.45/6. 15:43's 150 $1.4531 ended the period.
15:44-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, did a rise on 15:46's 7.4K $1.45->$1.47->$1.46, began no/low/medium-volume $1.46/7, and at 15:55 b/a was 700:1.2K $1.46/7. 15:59's ~11K $1.45/6 followed by 16:00's 149 $1.49 buy ended the period and day.
There were six AH trades totaling 10.6K $1.56->$1.49.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 83,394, 23.83% of day's volume, with a $1.4636 VWAP. Note that sans the 4K+ trades the number of larger trades would be a bit fewer than what would be normal for the volume I think. Note also that the larger trades VWAP was slightly below the day's VWAP of $1.4680, suggesting some opportunistic retail traders did well today.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart we topped just below the $1.53 resistance (upper red line) and medium-term rising support/resistance (lower rising orange line) which is also at $1.53 today. We closed lower than both those points by three pennies. We penetrated the short-term rising support (green line) and closed above it. On volume close to double yesterday's on today's down day this would be a negative suggestion. But keep in mind today's behavior was affected by the Q4 and FY '16 reporting this evening, so this is not really useful for guessing go-forward behavior. Need to wait a few days and see what develops regarding sentiment about the reported results.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs dropped and the 50-day continues to rise. The 10 and 20-day SMAs will continue dropping - the 10-day for the foreseeable future if we hold here and the 20-day one more day and then will flatten/rise over a bit more than a week. The 50-day will continue rising another six days if we can hold here or higher.
Of course, we will not hold here - some movement is certain IMO.
The oscillators I watch remain mixed, but not as much as yesterday, with improvement in accumulation/distribution, and MFI (untrusted by me). Weakening occurred in all the others. Accumulation/distribution and full stochastic are above neutral and the others are below neutral. Generally, more negative than yesterday but the two above neutral may be leading here. We'll have to wait and see.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.4411 and $1.6220 ($1.4284 and $1.6270 yesterday) stopped converging with the lower limit dropping noticeably today and the upper limit falling at a lower rate. Mid-point is falling now and our trade range was below it.
All in, little positive, especially considering rising volume on a down day, but I remind to not take this seriously as the report was pending at end of day and folks were acting on "hunches" I think. Real results are out and we can see what develops over the next few days.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, normalcy, but big on the short percentage and the buy percentage remains below what's needed for sustained appreciation. The short percentage jump was likely shorters. I base this on it's extremeness and the last couple short interest reports showing the shorters were increasing their positions.
The spread is excessive and was produced by open high and make multiple steps down during the day. I would say this is quite negative but we can't act on it because of the reporting that was coming at EOD. Folks acting on hunches caused this I think.
VWAP movement was negative so the last twenty-four readings give us fourteen negatives and ten positives, netting a change since 05/05 of $0.0133, 0.91%. Unfortunately the { ... the buy percentage makes me thing we won't get a positive VWAP change tomorrow. }[/] from yesterday ended up being correct.
All in, nothing positive for near-term here, but waiting a few days should give us a better feel.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Today's readings and commentary are mostly meaningless because of the Q4/FYE '16 reporting this evening. We'll now need to await development of a trend, probably three days or so, before I think this stuff starts to become useful again. Having said that, a beat on the losses (ignoring the lie produced by not factoring in dilution) and revenues inline may cause an earlier trend development.
For the above reasons, I'll be less detailed today.
Intra-day began with the typical open high and fall (picture a long arcing water-slide 9:30-11:35) during which buy percentage slid down to ~25.6% by 11:45. Then we got a long flattish low/no-volume $1.46/7 (interrupted by a couple volume and price spike 13:13-:14) followed by a final drop at 14:54 to $1.45/6 and flattish through 15:45. Note before the final drop the buy percentage had progressed to ~40% at 13:30 and weakened to ~37.7% by 14:45. After the final drop, 15:00 onward maintained above 44%.
This all made me think this was a planned push lower to allow buying at lower prices. OTOH, might have been early exits by folks afraid of the Q/FY reporting and MMs doing their normal naked short and covering buys at lower prices.
We'll never know.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 4,304 buy for $1.52 & ~2.65K more $1.5135/$1.52. Then came 9:33's 100 $1.50 (1st intra-day low), 9:34-:44's no-trades, 9:45-:46's 100 ea. $1.51, 9:51's 850 $1.50, and 9:54's 2.1K $1.5025/$1.51. 9:55's 4K $1.50 ended the period.
09:56-10:27 began a slow, halting, low/no-volume decline on 9:56's ~1.8K $1.50->$1.49 (new low), hitting 10:04's ~3.8K $1.50->$1.48 (new low), and 10:27's ~3.9K $1.48->$1.47 (new low) ended the period.
10:28-11:26, after five no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.47/8, except for 10:27's 4K $1.4750 and at 10:50 b/a became ~6.5K:3.3K $1.47/8. 11:26's 5.8K $1.47/8 ended the period.
11:27-14:53 began low/medium-volume steps lower on 11:27's ~9K $1.47->$1.4630 (new low) ->$1.47, hit $1.46 (new low) on 11:34's ~5.6K $1.4650->$1.46 to bottom out. Then came variable-volume, mostly no/low-volume, $1.46/7. At 11:42 b/a was 15.6K:~8K $1.46/7, 12:05 ~11.7K:7.4K $1.46/7, 13:00 9.3K:10.1K $1.46/7. Volume and price were interrupted by 13:13-:14's 25.5K $1.4650->$1.47->$1.49->$1.47 and 13:21's ~6.8K $1.4626->$1.47->$1.4675 and b/a became ~9.9K:2.8K. 14:09 had b/a ~7.5K:3.4K $1.46/7, 14:40 b/a was 2.4K:8.2K $1.46/7. 14:53's ~10.6K $1.46 ended the period.
14:54-15:43 did a move down on 14:54's ~2.3K $1.45/$1.4550 (new low) and began mostly very low/no-volume $1.45/6, interrupted by 14:59's 27.2K, $1.4501 (2K) and 25.1K $1.46. At 13:03 b/a was 10.2K:3.1K $1.45/6, 5:37 b/a 13.5K:4.8K $1.45/6. 15:43's 150 $1.4531 ended the period.
15:44-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, did a rise on 15:46's 7.4K $1.45->$1.47->$1.46, began no/low/medium-volume $1.46/7, and at 15:55 b/a was 700:1.2K $1.46/7. 15:59's ~11K $1.45/6 followed by 16:00's 149 $1.49 buy ended the period and day.
There were six AH trades totaling 10.6K $1.56->$1.49.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 83,394, 23.83% of day's volume, with a $1.4636 VWAP. Note that sans the 4K+ trades the number of larger trades would be a bit fewer than what would be normal for the volume I think. Note also that the larger trades VWAP was slightly below the day's VWAP of $1.4680, suggesting some opportunistic retail traders did well today.
Notice the preponderance of volume in the 14:53 and 15:43 periods at the lowest VWAPs.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:55 14204 $1.5000 $1.5200 $21,449.82 $1.5101 4.06% 58.57%
10:27 15583 $1.4700 $1.5000 $23,225.14 $1.4904 4.45% 37.99%
11:26 23213 $1.4700 $1.4800 $34,219.40 $1.4741 6.63% 29.80%
14:53 166886 $1.4600 $1.4900 $244,538.66 $1.4653 47.70% 40.52% Incl 11:34 $1.4650 5,000 13:05 $1.4650 4,100
13:13 $1.4700 4,100 13:14 6,600
14:31 $1.4650 4,700 14:43 4,700
14:53 $1.4600 10,000
15:43 74145 $1.4500 $1.4600 $108,032.82 $1.4570 21.19% 45.02% Incl 14:59 $1.4600 25,000 15:23 $1.4550 4,400
15:31 $1.4598 6,094 15:42 $1.4550 4,000
16:00 42321 $1.4530 $1.5000 $61,873.86 $1.4620 12.10% 46.47%
19:43 10600 $1.4900 $1.5600 $15,986.00 $1.5081 3.03% 46.21% Incl 19:43 $1.4900 4,700
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Everything but the high is negative, especially the rising volume on a down day.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.30% -1.36% 1.30% -1.97% 95.42%
Prior 1.32% -1.67% 0.00% 0.66% -33.31%
On my minimal chart we topped just below the $1.53 resistance (upper red line) and medium-term rising support/resistance (lower rising orange line) which is also at $1.53 today. We closed lower than both those points by three pennies. We penetrated the short-term rising support (green line) and closed above it. On volume close to double yesterday's on today's down day this would be a negative suggestion. But keep in mind today's behavior was affected by the Q4 and FY '16 reporting this evening, so this is not really useful for guessing go-forward behavior. Need to wait a few days and see what develops regarding sentiment about the reported results.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs dropped and the 50-day continues to rise. The 10 and 20-day SMAs will continue dropping - the 10-day for the foreseeable future if we hold here and the 20-day one more day and then will flatten/rise over a bit more than a week. The 50-day will continue rising another six days if we can hold here or higher.
Of course, we will not hold here - some movement is certain IMO.
The oscillators I watch remain mixed, but not as much as yesterday, with improvement in accumulation/distribution, and MFI (untrusted by me). Weakening occurred in all the others. Accumulation/distribution and full stochastic are above neutral and the others are below neutral. Generally, more negative than yesterday but the two above neutral may be leading here. We'll have to wait and see.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.4411 and $1.6220 ($1.4284 and $1.6270 yesterday) stopped converging with the lower limit dropping noticeably today and the upper limit falling at a lower rate. Mid-point is falling now and our trade range was below it.
All in, little positive, especially considering rising volume on a down day, but I remind to not take this seriously as the report was pending at end of day and folks were acting on "hunches" I think. Real results are out and we can see what develops over the next few days.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, normalcy, but big on the short percentage and the buy percentage remains below what's needed for sustained appreciation. The short percentage jump was likely shorters. I base this on it's extremeness and the last couple short interest reports showing the shorters were increasing their positions.
The spread is excessive and was produced by open high and make multiple steps down during the day. I would say this is quite negative but we can't act on it because of the reporting that was coming at EOD. Folks acting on hunches caused this I think.
VWAP movement was negative so the last twenty-four readings give us fourteen negatives and ten positives, netting a change since 05/05 of $0.0133, 0.91%. Unfortunately the { ... the buy percentage makes me thing we won't get a positive VWAP change tomorrow. }[/] from yesterday ended up being correct.
All in, nothing positive for near-term here, but waiting a few days should give us a better feel.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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