Thursday, June 09, 2016 7:52:58 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/08 2016 EOD
Ignoring the pending reporting tonight, I'm neutral-to-mildly-bullish today at best. Conventional TA is mixed with only slightly positive suggestions and my unconventional stuff is less positive. The volume behavior over the last week, up on down days and down on up days, makes even the "to-mildly-bullish" quite suspect though.
Today was a fairly typical "open high and plummet", today through ~11:05, and recover some (about 1/2 the drop today through ~14:35) to close better than one might expect. On low-volume days this is not atypical. We even got a 2-cent bump from 15:59's $1.50 trade to $1.52 on the close, thanks to MM manipulations setting up for the next day. On the charts this shows a close up from the prior day - great for keeping TA folks on the hook. See the intra-day breakdown commentary below.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:52 opened the day with a 1,200 buy for $1.54 and 1,095 more @ $1.5201. Then came 9:35-:39's 2.4K $1.53, 9:41-:42's ~2.8K $1.53/4, 9:45's 2K $1.5230, 9:48-:49's 4.6K $1.52->$1.5190, and 9:51-:52's 2.2K $1.5199/$1.52 ended the period.
09:53-10:25, after four no-trades minutes, began dropping on 9:58-:59's ~8K $1.51/2 (new intra-day low), 10:01's 22.1K $1.51, 10:04's 12.6K $1.51, 10:07's ~2.1K $1.5119/2, 10:09's 400 $1.5120. 10:10 b/a was 3.6K:300 $1.50/2 (new low $1.50). Then came 10:15's ~6.6K $1.50/1, 10:16-:17's ~5.3K $1.51->$1.50, 10:19's 100 $1.50, 10:21's 1K $1.50, and 10:25's 600 $1.49/50 bottomed to end the period.
10:26-10:53, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.49/50 on 10:28's 179 $1.4901. 10:30 b/a was ~2.1K:2.7K $1.49/50. 10:53's 2K $1.4999 ended the period.
10:54-11:48, after thirteen no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.47/$1.4899 on 11:07's 5.4K $1.49->$1.47. B/a at 11:20 was 300:900 $1.48/9, 11:23 1.6K:1.3K $1.47/8. 11:48's 6.5K $1.4750 ended the period.
11:49-13:13, after four no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.48/9 on 11:53's 100 $1.49 and 13:13's 100 $1.4899 ended the period.
13:14-14:32, after one no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume slow climb from $1.49/50 on 13:15's 725 $1.4999/$1.50 to peak on 14:32's 3.1K $1.5199/$1.52 to end the period.
14:33-15:22, after one no-trades minute, stepped down on 14:34's 310 $1.52->$1.51 to begin very low/no-volume $1.50/1. At 15:07 b/a was ~2.5K:1.7K $1.50/1. 15:22's 134 $1.50 ended the period.
15:23-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.51/2 on 15:25's 300 $1.51. 15:37 b/a was 3.4K:~2.5K $1.50/2. 15:38's 2K $1.5001 moved range to $1.50/1 and b/a became 2.8K:2.1K $1.50/2 but didn't hold as at 15:50 it was 2.5K:200 $1.50/1. 15:59 did 410 $1.50 and 16:00's 535 buy for $1.52 ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 41,850, 23.37% of day's volume, with a $1.4900 VWAP, slightly lower than the day's $1.4998.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
We'll need to keep challenging the $1.53 area to get through it I think and with the CC approaching I doubt we'll do that before the CC. }
So far that's on track. We again penetrated the two resistances (upper red line and lower rising orange line) and got pushed back. I think today's volume, and buy percentage early on, showed the last of the heavy selling (see intra-day breakdown commentary above). That allowed the common rise into the close to post a close higher than yesterday's. Another good result was that the low remains above the short-term rising support (green line).
Today's lower volume on an up day (considering only the close - low was lower and high was flat) puts the lie to any bullish implications. In the last five days volume has been higher on down days and lower on "up" days. I'll also mention the closes have been often incongruent with the trading immediately prior to the close. That's my way of saying watch the manipulation.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continues to drop and if closing range holds we'll keep dropping another week or so. The 20-day SMA continues rising and we've got another two days if the closing range holds. After that it would flatten and quickly begin to roll over. The 50-day SMA rise has another three days if we hold.
The oscillators I watch, which were mixed yesterday, continue so today with improvement in RSI (got above neutral), accumulation/distribution, momentum, and full stochastic (above neutral). Weakening were MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and ADX-related.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.4284 and $1.6270 ($1.4052 and $1.6348 yesterday) continue converging and raising the mid-point, around which we continue to trade.
All in, ignoring the pending CC today, the conventional TA suggests to me continued indecision with a mild upward bias. Adding in my thoughts about the closing price behavior, not so much. There is a bright spot though in the fact that the low and close are staying at or above the short-term rising support. That's countered, to some degree, by the higher volumes on down days.
So prudence makes me go neutral-to-mildly bullish because I think near-term sellers are likely exhausted until after the CC.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions but to such a small degree that I'll consider them both "unchanged". In that case, they are in agreement. The short percentage is above my preferred range (needs re-check) but if I back out the +15.1% adjustment (again, I'm thinking the ARCA shorts are reporting in the FINRA facility now) the short percentage is 44.74%, right at the top of my range, so that's good. The buy percentage continues to be too low to suggest any sustained appreciation.
The spread opened some more and was produced by the "bad" intra-day behavior of "open high and plummet". This leads me to stick with yesterday's { Considering the intra-day behavior I'm even inclined to think it may suggest near-term weakness. } This proved correct as VWAP was down today. Today will be affected by tonight's pending reporting and CC, so I can't say this will hold though.
VWAP movement was negative so the last twenty-four readings give us thirteen negatives and eleven positives, netting a change since 05/04 of $0.0176, 1.19%. Ignoring the pending reporting, the buy percentage makes me thing we won't get a positive VWAP change tomorrow.
All in, I'm neutral, at best, due to the spread, buy percentage, lower volume and fairly neutral VWAP trend offsetting the "good" suggested by the short percentage.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Ignoring the pending reporting tonight, I'm neutral-to-mildly-bullish today at best. Conventional TA is mixed with only slightly positive suggestions and my unconventional stuff is less positive. The volume behavior over the last week, up on down days and down on up days, makes even the "to-mildly-bullish" quite suspect though.
Today was a fairly typical "open high and plummet", today through ~11:05, and recover some (about 1/2 the drop today through ~14:35) to close better than one might expect. On low-volume days this is not atypical. We even got a 2-cent bump from 15:59's $1.50 trade to $1.52 on the close, thanks to MM manipulations setting up for the next day. On the charts this shows a close up from the prior day - great for keeping TA folks on the hook. See the intra-day breakdown commentary below.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:52 opened the day with a 1,200 buy for $1.54 and 1,095 more @ $1.5201. Then came 9:35-:39's 2.4K $1.53, 9:41-:42's ~2.8K $1.53/4, 9:45's 2K $1.5230, 9:48-:49's 4.6K $1.52->$1.5190, and 9:51-:52's 2.2K $1.5199/$1.52 ended the period.
09:53-10:25, after four no-trades minutes, began dropping on 9:58-:59's ~8K $1.51/2 (new intra-day low), 10:01's 22.1K $1.51, 10:04's 12.6K $1.51, 10:07's ~2.1K $1.5119/2, 10:09's 400 $1.5120. 10:10 b/a was 3.6K:300 $1.50/2 (new low $1.50). Then came 10:15's ~6.6K $1.50/1, 10:16-:17's ~5.3K $1.51->$1.50, 10:19's 100 $1.50, 10:21's 1K $1.50, and 10:25's 600 $1.49/50 bottomed to end the period.
10:26-10:53, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.49/50 on 10:28's 179 $1.4901. 10:30 b/a was ~2.1K:2.7K $1.49/50. 10:53's 2K $1.4999 ended the period.
10:54-11:48, after thirteen no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.47/$1.4899 on 11:07's 5.4K $1.49->$1.47. B/a at 11:20 was 300:900 $1.48/9, 11:23 1.6K:1.3K $1.47/8. 11:48's 6.5K $1.4750 ended the period.
11:49-13:13, after four no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.48/9 on 11:53's 100 $1.49 and 13:13's 100 $1.4899 ended the period.
13:14-14:32, after one no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume slow climb from $1.49/50 on 13:15's 725 $1.4999/$1.50 to peak on 14:32's 3.1K $1.5199/$1.52 to end the period.
14:33-15:22, after one no-trades minute, stepped down on 14:34's 310 $1.52->$1.51 to begin very low/no-volume $1.50/1. At 15:07 b/a was ~2.5K:1.7K $1.50/1. 15:22's 134 $1.50 ended the period.
15:23-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.51/2 on 15:25's 300 $1.51. 15:37 b/a was 3.4K:~2.5K $1.50/2. 15:38's 2K $1.5001 moved range to $1.50/1 and b/a became 2.8K:2.1K $1.50/2 but didn't hold as at 15:50 it was 2.5K:200 $1.50/1. 15:59 did 410 $1.50 and 16:00's 535 buy for $1.52 ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 41,850, 23.37% of day's volume, with a $1.4900 VWAP, slightly lower than the day's $1.4998.
Notice that early generally lower buy percentages through the 13:13 period had ~73% of the day's volume and the higher buy percentages came later along with recovering VWAPs. This is quite typical on lower-volume days when we have the "open high and fall" (through ~11:30 today) and then recover some (usually about 1/2 the drop) as it did today. I suspect this profile is due to MMs naked shorting early, helping to drive prices lower, and then participating in the buying to cover their shorts. If this is the case, they'll be short-term long tomorrow and we might see price supported somewhat.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:52 16200 $1.5190 $1.5400 $24,706.50 $1.5251 9.05% 38.06%
10:25 58501 $1.4900 $1.5200 $88,238.86 $1.5083 32.67% 31.25% Incl 09:58 $1.5101 4,300 10:01 $1.5100 4,400
10:01 $1.5101 4,400
10:53 5378 $1.4900 $1.5000 $8,037.19 $1.4945 3.00% 31.26%
11:48 39150 $1.4700 $1.4900 $57,783.03 $1.4759 21.87% 32.73% Incl 11:28 $1.4700 10,200 11:30 $1.4799 4,000
11:48 $1.4750 6,500
13:13 10685 $1.4701 $1.4900 $15,832.31 $1.4817 5.97% 31.01%
14:32 27695 $1.4900 $1.5200 $41,664.87 $1.5044 15.47% 36.79% Incl 13:30 $1.5000 8,050
15:22 8948 $1.5000 $1.5200 $13,479.77 $1.5065 5.00% 38.57%
16:00 8013 $1.5000 $1.5200 $12,075.24 $1.5070 4.48% 38.57%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { ... It says there's still too many sellers in relation to the buyers that tried to push through resistance. And the volume was significant enough to suggest sellers are exhausted.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 1.32% -1.67% 0.00% 0.66% -33.31%
Prior 5.56% 4.18% 0.65% -1.31% 51.47%
We'll need to keep challenging the $1.53 area to get through it I think and with the CC approaching I doubt we'll do that before the CC. }
So far that's on track. We again penetrated the two resistances (upper red line and lower rising orange line) and got pushed back. I think today's volume, and buy percentage early on, showed the last of the heavy selling (see intra-day breakdown commentary above). That allowed the common rise into the close to post a close higher than yesterday's. Another good result was that the low remains above the short-term rising support (green line).
Today's lower volume on an up day (considering only the close - low was lower and high was flat) puts the lie to any bullish implications. In the last five days volume has been higher on down days and lower on "up" days. I'll also mention the closes have been often incongruent with the trading immediately prior to the close. That's my way of saying watch the manipulation.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continues to drop and if closing range holds we'll keep dropping another week or so. The 20-day SMA continues rising and we've got another two days if the closing range holds. After that it would flatten and quickly begin to roll over. The 50-day SMA rise has another three days if we hold.
The oscillators I watch, which were mixed yesterday, continue so today with improvement in RSI (got above neutral), accumulation/distribution, momentum, and full stochastic (above neutral). Weakening were MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and ADX-related.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.4284 and $1.6270 ($1.4052 and $1.6348 yesterday) continue converging and raising the mid-point, around which we continue to trade.
All in, ignoring the pending CC today, the conventional TA suggests to me continued indecision with a mild upward bias. Adding in my thoughts about the closing price behavior, not so much. There is a bright spot though in the fact that the low and close are staying at or above the short-term rising support. That's countered, to some degree, by the higher volumes on down days.
So prudence makes me go neutral-to-mildly bullish because I think near-term sellers are likely exhausted until after the CC.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions but to such a small degree that I'll consider them both "unchanged". In that case, they are in agreement. The short percentage is above my preferred range (needs re-check) but if I back out the +15.1% adjustment (again, I'm thinking the ARCA shorts are reporting in the FINRA facility now) the short percentage is 44.74%, right at the top of my range, so that's good. The buy percentage continues to be too low to suggest any sustained appreciation.
The spread opened some more and was produced by the "bad" intra-day behavior of "open high and plummet". This leads me to stick with yesterday's { Considering the intra-day behavior I'm even inclined to think it may suggest near-term weakness. } This proved correct as VWAP was down today. Today will be affected by tonight's pending reporting and CC, so I can't say this will hold though.
VWAP movement was negative so the last twenty-four readings give us thirteen negatives and eleven positives, netting a change since 05/04 of $0.0176, 1.19%. Ignoring the pending reporting, the buy percentage makes me thing we won't get a positive VWAP change tomorrow.
All in, I'm neutral, at best, due to the spread, buy percentage, lower volume and fairly neutral VWAP trend offsetting the "good" suggested by the short percentage.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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