Monday, April 25, 2016 9:13:22 AM
Keep in mind today's actions were affected by last night's after hours common stock and warrants offering. So the big down draft expected with this sort of thing materialized and means we can't consider yesterday's assessments of today's likely action significant.
Moreover, since near-term action likely depends on a lot of temporary players (momo and swing traders and shorters into an unreasonable rise), the normal (dubious sometimes?) utility of both conventional and unconventional TA is questionable for the near-term.
Keep in mind Hillzman's post about the cost as the costs affect how the financiers behave, my thoughts about which are here.
The trend, beginning with the 4:00 A.M. trades, was strongly downward until the intra-day low was finally hit at 12:14. No major trends down occurred thereafter.
Yesterday in the AH trades comments I warned { The last was another suspicious buy at 19:53:37 for $2.18 x 1,629 shares. Predicting tomorrow's early action? } Man did that one work out as we went from yesterdays spread of $1.92/$2.70 and VWAP of $2.4482 to today's spread of $1.77/$2.20, a VWAP of $1.9063, and the fall from grace began with pre-pre-market trading!
There were 538 pre-market trades, totaling 247,555 shares that traded $1.83 - $2.34. Although pre-market is officially opened at 7:00 A.M., the first trade occurred at 4:00 A.M and through 6:45 A.M. 9,900 shares had traded $2.11 - $2.34.
Is this a great market or what? Doesn't matter what the rules published to us peons are, the privileged few can do anything they want.
09:30-09:42 opened the day with a 43,214 sell for $2.00 and traded as high as $2.06 on another 49,702 shares and immediately began a very high-volume, and declining, four-minute ~130.3K rise topping on 9:34's ~27K $2.17/20. That was followed by a very high-volume, and declining, seven-minute ~219.2K fall hitting $2.02/3 on 9:42's ~5.8K to end the period.
09:43-09:47 began another fall on medium/high-volume with 09:43's ~32.3K $2.02/5, hit 9:46's ~79.8K $2.05->$1.96 and 9:47's 71.3K $1.97->$1.92 to end the period.
09:48-10:34 began the next drop with a short high-volume $1.93/6 through 9:55, did another one at $1.92/5 through 10:11 and began a very high-volume drop hitting 10:16's 57K $1.87->$1.86. A re-trace followed, hitting 10:21's ~20.3K $1.90/1, and going mostly medium volume $1.90/1 until 10:34's 1.3K ended the period.
10:35-11:08 began the next move down with 10:35's ~19.5K $1.91->$1.89 followed by a low/medium-volume sideways $1.88/9 through 10:41 and then got serious about the drop on 10:42-s ~25.6K $1.89-$1.87 and proceeded on high/medium-volume to hit 10:51's ~36K $1.86->$1.82. Price then retraced on high volume to hit $1.84/5 and went sideways there on low volume until 11:08's ~38K drop to $1.82/5 ended the period.
11:09-11:44 did three minutes of medium-volume $1.83/4, dipped on 11:11's ~27K $1.83->$1.81, did medium-volume there through 11:13 and then did a sideways variable-volume $1.82/3 until 11:44's 800 $1.82 ended the period.
11:45-12:14, after a no-trades three minutes, began a medium/high-volume move lower on 11:48's ~14.8K $1.82->$1.81, hitting 11:53's ~31.4K $1.80->$1.79, going low-volume sideways $1.79/80 through 11:59, bouncing up on 12:00's 38.5K $1.79->$1.82, going variable-volume sideways $1.80/2 through 12:07, beginning another medium/high-volume move down on 12:08's ~11.4K $1.81->$1.79, and hitting 12:14's 7.1K $1.78->$1.77 to end the period.
That finally established the day's low and no more major trends lower were seen.
12:15-12:36 began a low/medium-volume rise, hitting 12:24's ~49.3K $1.78-$1.81 and going mostly low-volume sideways $1.80/1 through 12:36's 600 $1.80 to end the period.
12:37-12:55 began a medium-volume, and rising, move up on 12:37's ~22.6K $1.80->$1.82, went variable-volume sideways $1.82/3 through 12:43, and did a steady high-volume rise hitting 12:55's ~78.1K$1.88/90 to end the period.
12:56-13:52 began a short small step lower on 12:56's ~13.3K $1.89-$1.87 and at 13:02 settled into a very low/no-volume $1.86/7 to end the period on 13:52's 600 $1.86.
13:53-14:02 did 13:53's ~41.8K $1.86->$1.82 and did a low/medium recovery to $1.83/5 through 14:02's ~16.4K $1.83/5 to end the period.
1403-15:20 did a long mostly low/no-volume sideways $1.83/5 and ended on 15:20's 500 $1.83.
15:21-15:49 did a low/medium-volume quick dip to hit 15:28's ~1.8K $1.81/2, went low-volume sideways there until 15:33's ~13.8K initiated a short low-volume rise to 15:35's ~5.2K $1.83/4 and went variable volume $1.83/4 to end on 15:49's 606 $1.84.
15:50-15:59 began the (what used to be) normal EOD volatility, on 15:50's ~48.5K $1.84->$1.87 and did a medium/high-volume rise to $1.87/8 on 15:59's ~33.2K to end the period.
16:00-16:00 146,371 $1.88/9 and closed the day with a buy of 145,371 and did anther 1K for $1.88/$1.8875.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening and closing trades, there were 119 larger trades (>=5a & 28 4K+K) totaling 1,111,849, 28.47% of day's volume, with a $1.8973 VWAP. Excluding the opening and closing trades, there were 117 larger trades totaling 923,264, 23.64% of day's volume, with a $1.8920 VWAP. Since the opening and closing trades were unusually large, I thought it might be useful to take a peek at what larger blocks looked like if those opening and closing trades were excluded from the days volume. Reducing total volume by those two trades the remaining larger blocks would constitute 24.84% of day's volume.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
04:58 2300 $2.2800 $2.3400 $5,250.00 $2.2826 0.06% 43.48%
06:14 4850 $2.2800 $2.2900 $11,105.50 $2.2898 0.12% 72.92%
06:45 2700 $2.1100 $2.2900 $6,165.00 $2.2833 0.07% 79.29%
07:29 19504 $2.0300 $2.2200 $41,710.64 $2.1386 0.50% 61.40% Incl 07:17 $2.2200 5,000
07:44 22600 $2.0000 $2.1000 $45,839.00 $2.0283 0.58% 41.45% Incl 07:39 $2.0300 6,200
08:00 11550 $1.8300 $1.9800 $21,804.00 $1.8878 0.30% 45.02%
08:15 62368 $1.8300 $2.2900 $120,945.79 $1.9392 1.60% 41.95%
08:30 21455 $1.9000 $1.9800 $41,676.53 $1.9425 0.55% 44.74%
08:45 25880 $1.9700 $2.0800 $52,343.10 $2.0225 0.66% 45.79%
08:52 13000 $2.0200 $2.0800 $26,703.00 $2.0541 0.33% 45.39%
09:15 31090 $1.9800 $2.0600 $62,795.28 $2.0198 0.80% 41.19%
09:29 30258 $1.9500 $2.0500 $60,652.00 $2.0045 0.77% 31.38%
09:42 457519 $2.0000 $2.2000 $958,190.95 $2.0943 11.72% 36.69% Incl 09:30 $2.0000 43,214 6,391 5,000 $2.0100
09:30 $2.0000 9,900
09:31 $2.0701 5,000 $2.0900 4,900
09:31 $2.1015 4,700
09:33 $2.1401 4,100 $2.1480 4,994
09:35 $2.1970 4,100 09:37 $2.1200 13,900
09:35 $2.1970 17,460
09:37 $2.1300 12,400 $2.0882 7,000
09:40 $2.0600 5,000 09:41 $2.0500 10,000
09:47 198206 $1.9207 $2.0500 $394,779.37 $1.9918 5.08% 38.99% Incl 09:43 $2.0300 5,000 09:46 $2.0000 5,000
09:43 $2.03 10,000
10:34 782792 $1.8600 $1.9600 $1,501,800.95 $1.9185 20.04% 46.50% Incl 09:53 $1.9600 8,800 $1.9499 5,000
09:55 $1.9200 18,400 09:58 $1.9499 4,700
10:01 $1.9500 12,500 12,500
10:10 $1.9400 7,846 10:14 $1.9100 4,000
10:14 $1.9000 4,500 4,000
10:15 $1.9000 7,918 $1.8800 9,000
10:16 $1.8700 5,000 14,900
10:18 $1.8886 5,000 10:19 $1.8900 4,200
10:19 $1.8900 6,800 10:20 $1.9000 37,500
10:20 $1.9000 12,500
11:08 460189 $1.8200 $1.9100 $853,180.42 $1.8540 11.78% 44.22% Incl 10:35 $1.9100 7,900 10:42 $1.8800 7,400
10:47 $1.8500 4,000 21,525 20,010
10:47 $1.8600 4,800 4,800 4,200
10:49 $1.8632 4,800 $1.8600 9,400
10:51 $1.8400 5,251 5,000 $1.8200 5,250
10:51 $1.8400 4,850 10:52 $1.8300 12,400
10:51 $1,84 7,800
10:53 $1.8200 7,200 10:54 $1.8365 8,400
10:58 $1.8500 4,100 10:59 $1.8401 5,000
11:04 $1.8400 5,000 11:08 $1.8300 5,000
11:04 $1.8400 9,000
11:44 214817 $1.8100 $1.8400 $391,958.75 $1.8246 5.50% 45.16% Incl 11:11 $1.8100 9,850 11:13 $1.8200 16,766
11:22 $1.8267 7,000 11:27 $1.8200 10,000
11:33 $1.8250 5,000 11:53 $1.8000 10,000
12:00 $1.7900 4,400 12:11 $1.7966 8,000
12:11 $1.7940 5,000
12:14 238831 $1.7700 $1.8200 $429,675.15 $1.7991 6.12% 44.09%
12:36 142678 $1.7700 $1.8100 $256,089.39 $1.7949 3.65% 44.89% Incl 12:16 $1.7840 5,000 12:20 $1.7800 5,395
12:24 $1.7900 18,807 12,479
12:26 $1.8050 4,300 12:27 $1.8100 7,323
12:35 $1.8099 4,815 $1.8100 4,815
12:55 389709 $1.8050 $1.9000 $723,379.97 $1.8562 9.98% 46.52% Incl 12:37 $1.8100 6,613 12:40 $1.8290 5,990
12:41 $1.8300 5,000 12:44 $1.8300 5,300
12:46 $1.8400 7,500 5,887
12:49 $1.8500 9,100 10,600 10,600 5,689
12:50 $1.8600 4,600 5,400
12:47 $1.8489 4,115
12:50 $1.8600 10,600 12:51 $1.8666 6,250
12:52 $1.8600 5,000 12,600
12:54 $1.8800 11,400
12:55 $1.8900 8,900 11,000 4,455 4,845
12:55 $1.89 7,800
12:56 $1.8800 9,641 12:59 $1.8701 5,000
13:31 $1.8600 5,000
13:52 95181 $1.8600 $1.8900 $178,032.85 $1.8705 2.44% 47.31% Incl 13:53 $1.8500 15,000
14:02 76605 $1.8200 $1.8550 $140,936.08 $1.8398 1.96% 47.23% Incl 13:57 $1.8400 4,900
15:20 146810 $1.8300 $1.8563 $269,675.92 $1.8369 3.76% 47.42% Incl 14:59 $1.8400 4,900 15:15 $1.8400 8,000
15:16 $1.8300 5,934 14,200
15:49 92820 $1.8100 $1.8400 $169,612.09 $1.8273 2.38% 46.97% Incl 15:24 $1.8201 7,700 15:25 $1.8200 9,500
15:47 $1.8306 5,000
15:59 185093 $1.8350 $1.8800 $345,019.04 $1.8640 4.74% 46.63% Incl 15:50 $1.8400 6,800 15:52 $1.8600 5,000
15:59 $1.8737 4,300
16:00 146371 $1.8750 $1.9000 $278,084.40 $1.8999 3.75% 48.63% Incl 16:00 $1.9000 145,371
Note that the official intra-day high was $2.20 and the high movement using that value would be -18.52% instead of -13.33%.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 1.01% -7.81% -13.33% -24.30% 80.57%
Prior -0.47% 1.56% -10.84% -3.83% -69.28%
On my minimal chart we see the results of the announcement of new shares and warrants offering. The movements just mentioned say everything needing to be said for now, except a summary. That is, it looks like no near-term positive and only a very common brief consolidation seems the best likely near-term outcome. Personally I would bet on lower as the financiers of the share offering do their thing (make $).
I'm going to be watching going forward to see if we head for the $1.67-$1.69 area, noted by the orange line on the chart. Seems likely to me.
On my one-year chart, need I say it? we did not confirm yesterday's { ... broke through my long-term descending resistance, on the third day of trying I guess, and just need confirmation tomorrow. } In fact, our high appears to be right at the descending resistance. because we've risen so far from our depths, the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs continue to rise. I'll not try to predict their near-term behavior because I strongly suspect lower for longer is in our future but the uncertainties mentioned above mean it would be silly for me to try and predict how we might trade and, therefore, the coming effects on the SMAs.
The oscillators I watch all weakened.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.9939 and $2.3799 ($0.9808 and $2.3469 yesterday) still has a rising mid-point because the upper limit is still rising and the lower limit is now also rising. Today price low is right around the mid-point. I expect we'll drop below it based on what I think the financiers, momo traders and shorters are likely to do.
All in, the big volume on the first day after the dilution announcement says more downside is likely. These effects of catalysts, which often have three-days or so of high volatility before beginning to develop a longer-term pattern, have at least another couple days to go I think.
I would not be surprised to see us back at the mid-to-high $1 areas before all is said and done.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions but we again have a case of the buy percentage movement being insignificant. The short percentage dropped from well above my desired range (needs re-check) to just inside the lower bound. That's a big drop and a big flag as the intra-day price behavior and essentially flat buy percentage would suggest higher short percentage. Looking at the volume, larger blocks, and intra-day behavior, I think a lot of intra/inter-broker trades and possibly some ATM activity account for the short percentage.
I suspect the buy percentage stayed relatively calm as today offered lots of attractive intra-day covering opportunities for the MMs. For every naked short they do they would ideally like to be able to cover in the same day. So that would tend to make buy percentage hover just below the 50% area unless unknown percentage gets very large.
The spread (see the note above about OLHC and volume moves) was excessive regardless of using the "official" high or the one including the pre-market trades. Since I believe we will be in a down-trend this suggests near-term weakness.
VWAP movement was down big, as it should be with the announcement of more dilution.
All in, no aggregate positives here.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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