Tuesday, February 09, 2016 9:04:11 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/08 2016 EOD
I decided to try a small intra-day trade and entered some buys of trading blocks for $1.39 based on this thinking. Didn't work out as price never got above $1.41, my break even. Since
price stayed >=$1.38 until 15:31, when EOD volatility began, I've still got a chance. I'll hang in until a 5% loss or until I hit a cheap steak-dinner's worth of profit.
Today ended the three-day "wait and see" period, so tomorrow should start to give a clearer picture of what the new trend will be. The traditional TA stuff offered some hope in that our intra-day low and close honored the minimal chart's short-term rising support, making an origin and two touches. This suggests a valid support but I want to see us move up and away before I buy it.
With the plentiful attractive covering buy opportunities today we might have MMs short-term long, leading to price support today as they garner profits.
There were no pre-market trades.
The day opened with a 1,900 share sell at $1.48 and then did a two-minute ~6.5K drop to $1.44 followed by ~3.2K $1.44/6 followed by no/low-volume $1.45/$1.4538 until ~5.1K at 9:42 moved to $1.43/$1.4432. Next trades were 9:45's 6.6K at $1.44, 9:51's ~5K $1.44, 9:52's 1.5K $1.43/5, 9:54/:55's ~5.4K $1.44->$1.42, and finally 10:00's 200 shares at $1.43 ended the period. 10:01-10:39, after four minutes of no trades, did ~3K $1.42->$1.41, 750 shares $1.41 the next three minutes, then 8K $1.41, ~1.9K $1.41/2, and 2.4K there to finally begin some stability with no/low volume, interrupted by 3K at 10:31, and ended the period at $1.42. 10:40-10:52, began with 9.5K at $1.41, two minutes of no trades, ~11.8K $1.40/1, and ~4.3K $1.40, followed by rising no/low-volume that stepped down to $1.39/40 at 10:49 and then $1.38/40 on 4.3K to end the period. 10:53-13:13 began with ~4.5K $1.39/40 and the next trade was the same range on 11:05's ~1.2K to finally get some no/low-volume going, with a few medium and high volume minutes, in the mostly $1.39/41 range. There was a dip to $1.38 at 11:55 on 1.1K and ended the period at $1.40. 13:14-14:00, after no trades for four minutes, did 15.5K $1.38/9 and began no/low-volume, rising to medium-volume, $1.38/9 and ended at $1.39. 14:01-15:23, after two minutes of no trades, began a low-volume $1.39/$1.40, interrupted by ~10.6K $1.40 at 14:20, and ended at $1.39. 15:24-15:55, after no trades first minute, did ~24.1K 1.38/40, to apparently start the EOD volatility, to the downside initially. Price came back up on 100 shares to $1.39 (b/a $1.37x100/$1.39x2.2K and at 15:29 offers went $1.38x1.2K) and at 15:30 ~5K did $1.38, 15:31 269 shares did $1.37 and low-volume began $1.37/8 (b/a again spread - $1.36/$1.39 balanced ~3K each this time), did $1.36/7 on ~2.7K at 15:36, back to $1.38/9 on 645 shares at 15:40 and began no/low-volume $1.39. Then 15:52 did $1.38/40 on ~7.7K, 15:55 did $1.38/41 on ~14.9K to end the period. 15:56-16:00 weakened on falling volume from $1.38 to $1.36 through 15:59 and closed the day and period with a sell of 2,900 shares for $1.35.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 57,379, 19.45% of day's volume, with a $1.3934 VWAP.
Offsetting that, our history would suggest otherwise - leg down is likely to continue regardless of the Bollinger bands and any rising support. But everything changes sooner or later, so I don't make any bets either way here.
On my one-year chart the 10-SMA continues to rise while the 20-day has gone flat. So the cross we got now starts to widen, a positive sign. They are at $1.3600 and $1.2770 respectively ($1.3470 and $1.2770 yesterday). Today's lower close could ruin this if there's no recovery upward though.
The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3522 ($1.3610 yesterday). As mentioned recently, we still have some days to go before the 50-day starts to curl up, assuming price range doesn't drop.
The oscillators I watch, which all weakened yesterday but for full stochastic, continued that today and dragged full stochastic into the trend. RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum are still above neutral. ADX-related is about neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.1166 and $1.5388 ($1.0477 and $1.5615 yesterday) are now converging, thanks to the lower limit rising faster than the upper limit, and the mid-point is moving up. With price being around the current mid-point there's no suggestion of direction from the Bollingers. The spread is still wide enough such that there's no suggestion of a big trend change.
One potential positive is that the short-term rising channel's support (bottom-most blue lines on the minimal chart) is about at the mid-point of the Bolingers. So maybe my pessimism about history saying more down leg here will be wrong.
All in, can't get positive yet. Our short-term rising support just made it's second touch, suggesting it's a valid support, but until we move above and away we can't say this will hold. So I hold at neutral based on traditional TA stuff, but negative when I factor in history. Today ends the three-day "wait and see what develops", so I expect tomorrow will give a clearer picture.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions but the moves were very small and I don't think we can read much into this. The short percentage is barely below my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage continues to be lower than what I think is needed for sustained price appreciation. Regardless, the very small movements don't suggest a big move is at hand.
The spread is very concerning now, even though it narrowed for the fourth consecutive day, because we have two consecutive down days. The spread was produced by the old "open high and fall" routine. We didn't even get as much intra-day volatility as normal for this behavior as we dropped, went flat, dropped some more, went flat and then dropped into the close. It's really too soon to decide we are in a down trend as today was the last "wait and see" day and we've moved down only for the second day. Regardless, this does not bode well.
VWAP movement was nasty but not unusual for us. I withhold judgement though because history suggests three days after the catalyst should pass before we can see what new trend might start to develop.
All in, nothing positive other than the continued contraction of the spread and the movements of the percentages for daily short and buys were very small. Based on this stuff I'd expect relatively small movement tomorrow.
With the plentiful attractive covering buy opportunities today we might have MMs short-term long, leading to price support today as they garner profits.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
I decided to try a small intra-day trade and entered some buys of trading blocks for $1.39 based on this thinking. Didn't work out as price never got above $1.41, my break even. Since
price stayed >=$1.38 until 15:31, when EOD volatility began, I've still got a chance. I'll hang in until a 5% loss or until I hit a cheap steak-dinner's worth of profit.
Today ended the three-day "wait and see" period, so tomorrow should start to give a clearer picture of what the new trend will be. The traditional TA stuff offered some hope in that our intra-day low and close honored the minimal chart's short-term rising support, making an origin and two touches. This suggests a valid support but I want to see us move up and away before I buy it.
With the plentiful attractive covering buy opportunities today we might have MMs short-term long, leading to price support today as they garner profits.
There were no pre-market trades.
The day opened with a 1,900 share sell at $1.48 and then did a two-minute ~6.5K drop to $1.44 followed by ~3.2K $1.44/6 followed by no/low-volume $1.45/$1.4538 until ~5.1K at 9:42 moved to $1.43/$1.4432. Next trades were 9:45's 6.6K at $1.44, 9:51's ~5K $1.44, 9:52's 1.5K $1.43/5, 9:54/:55's ~5.4K $1.44->$1.42, and finally 10:00's 200 shares at $1.43 ended the period. 10:01-10:39, after four minutes of no trades, did ~3K $1.42->$1.41, 750 shares $1.41 the next three minutes, then 8K $1.41, ~1.9K $1.41/2, and 2.4K there to finally begin some stability with no/low volume, interrupted by 3K at 10:31, and ended the period at $1.42. 10:40-10:52, began with 9.5K at $1.41, two minutes of no trades, ~11.8K $1.40/1, and ~4.3K $1.40, followed by rising no/low-volume that stepped down to $1.39/40 at 10:49 and then $1.38/40 on 4.3K to end the period. 10:53-13:13 began with ~4.5K $1.39/40 and the next trade was the same range on 11:05's ~1.2K to finally get some no/low-volume going, with a few medium and high volume minutes, in the mostly $1.39/41 range. There was a dip to $1.38 at 11:55 on 1.1K and ended the period at $1.40. 13:14-14:00, after no trades for four minutes, did 15.5K $1.38/9 and began no/low-volume, rising to medium-volume, $1.38/9 and ended at $1.39. 14:01-15:23, after two minutes of no trades, began a low-volume $1.39/$1.40, interrupted by ~10.6K $1.40 at 14:20, and ended at $1.39. 15:24-15:55, after no trades first minute, did ~24.1K 1.38/40, to apparently start the EOD volatility, to the downside initially. Price came back up on 100 shares to $1.39 (b/a $1.37x100/$1.39x2.2K and at 15:29 offers went $1.38x1.2K) and at 15:30 ~5K did $1.38, 15:31 269 shares did $1.37 and low-volume began $1.37/8 (b/a again spread - $1.36/$1.39 balanced ~3K each this time), did $1.36/7 on ~2.7K at 15:36, back to $1.38/9 on 645 shares at 15:40 and began no/low-volume $1.39. Then 15:52 did $1.38/40 on ~7.7K, 15:55 did $1.38/41 on ~14.9K to end the period. 15:56-16:00 weakened on falling volume from $1.38 to $1.36 through 15:59 and closed the day and period with a sell of 2,900 shares for $1.35.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 57,379, 19.45% of day's volume, with a $1.3934 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:00 37896 $1.4200 $1.4968 $54,784.23 $1.4456 12.84% 25.70% Incl 09:45 $1.4400 5,800
10:39 23739 $1.4100 $1.4200 $33,541.27 $1.4129 8.05% 24.21% Incl 10:09 $1.4140 5,000
10:52 32661 $1.3800 $1.4101 $45,874.83 $1.4046 11.07% 27.28%
13:13 56982 $1.3800 $1.4100 $79,646.75 $1.3978 19.31% 37.90%
14:00 37583 $1.3800 $1.3900 $51,956.30 $1.3824 12.74% 34.87% Incl 13:19 $1.3800 13,472 13:27 $1.3800 4,400
15:23 32738 $1.3900 $1.4000 $45,715.03 $1.3964 11.10% 40.70% Incl 14:20 $1.3999 9,700 15:17 $1.3930 4,999
15:55 58384 $1.3600 $1.4100 $81,102.30 $1.3891 19.79% 40.19% Incl 15:25 $1.3800 4,008 15:30 $1.3800 5,000
16:00 13300 $1.3500 $1.3800 $18,205.50 $1.3688 4.51% 39.95% Incl 15:57 $1.3788 5,000
On my minimal chart our intra-day low and close appear to be right on the short-term rising channel's support line (bottom-most blue lines), It was a down day on reducing volume, which in normal times would suggest weakening downside momentum. Being the second consecutive day of lower volume and today's volume being below the 10-day average (but ~10% above the ~271K average prior to the volume spike of 2/4) would reinforce this assessment. Our low and close is also about the 13-period Bollinger mid-point, offering the possibility we hold in this area.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -9.20% -6.25% -8.73% -7.53% -32.82%
Prior 15.60% 2.86% -2.96% -7.59% -50.01%
Offsetting that, our history would suggest otherwise - leg down is likely to continue regardless of the Bollinger bands and any rising support. But everything changes sooner or later, so I don't make any bets either way here.
On my one-year chart the 10-SMA continues to rise while the 20-day has gone flat. So the cross we got now starts to widen, a positive sign. They are at $1.3600 and $1.2770 respectively ($1.3470 and $1.2770 yesterday). Today's lower close could ruin this if there's no recovery upward though.
The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3522 ($1.3610 yesterday). As mentioned recently, we still have some days to go before the 50-day starts to curl up, assuming price range doesn't drop.
The oscillators I watch, which all weakened yesterday but for full stochastic, continued that today and dragged full stochastic into the trend. RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum are still above neutral. ADX-related is about neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.1166 and $1.5388 ($1.0477 and $1.5615 yesterday) are now converging, thanks to the lower limit rising faster than the upper limit, and the mid-point is moving up. With price being around the current mid-point there's no suggestion of direction from the Bollingers. The spread is still wide enough such that there's no suggestion of a big trend change.
One potential positive is that the short-term rising channel's support (bottom-most blue lines on the minimal chart) is about at the mid-point of the Bolingers. So maybe my pessimism about history saying more down leg here will be wrong.
All in, can't get positive yet. Our short-term rising support just made it's second touch, suggesting it's a valid support, but until we move above and away we can't say this will hold. So I hold at neutral based on traditional TA stuff, but negative when I factor in history. Today ends the three-day "wait and see what develops", so I expect tomorrow will give a clearer picture.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions but the moves were very small and I don't think we can read much into this. The short percentage is barely below my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage continues to be lower than what I think is needed for sustained price appreciation. Regardless, the very small movements don't suggest a big move is at hand.
The spread is very concerning now, even though it narrowed for the fourth consecutive day, because we have two consecutive down days. The spread was produced by the old "open high and fall" routine. We didn't even get as much intra-day volatility as normal for this behavior as we dropped, went flat, dropped some more, went flat and then dropped into the close. It's really too soon to decide we are in a down trend as today was the last "wait and see" day and we've moved down only for the second day. Regardless, this does not bode well.
VWAP movement was nasty but not unusual for us. I withhold judgement though because history suggests three days after the catalyst should pass before we can see what new trend might start to develop.
All in, nothing positive other than the continued contraction of the spread and the movements of the percentages for daily short and buys were very small. Based on this stuff I'd expect relatively small movement tomorrow.
With the plentiful attractive covering buy opportunities today we might have MMs short-term long, leading to price support today as they garner profits.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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