Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/09 2016 EOD
Early action was open high and fall but with a much smaller and slower fall than is common - $1.35->$1.29 through 9:44. What followed was a difficult and erratic slog higher to hit $1.35 again at 10:09 and $1.37 at 10:44. We re-traced about half the gain, went flat through ~12:00, did a short bump up through 12:27 to hit $1.36 and then gave back almost all the gains off the low by 12:45, thanks to several high-volume minutes. We then went flattish through ~14:54 and had a nice sustained rise through 15:27, hitting $1.37 at 15:22 and 15:27, and went sideways $1.34/5 until the closing block spoiled it with $1.33.
Overall, a good day in that behavior was not uni-directional (down) and exhibited more normal price behavior. Peeking up out of the weeds, it was a generally flattish day with a narrowing spread and a bias to higher.
Based on this I wouldn't be surprised to see stability, or even some appreciation tomorrow.
There was one pre-market trade of 1.5K for $1.34.
The day opened with a sell of 5,454 shares at $1.35 and the next minute immediately began a march lower on ~10.2K $1.34/5 followed by steps lower on varying volume to hit $1.29 at 9:44. The a few minutes of medium and higher volume moved trading up to $1.30/2, where it stayed on low volume until 9:57/:58 did 13.8K $1.30/2. There were no more trades until 10:04/:05 did 926 at $1.3150 to end the period. 10:06-10:41 began with ~1,8K $1.32/3 and did a low-volume step up to $1.3470 by 10:08 and $1.35 at 10:09 (matching the open and day's high) and fell back to do low-volume $1.3350 until 10:12 began a low/medium-volume $1.33/5 that spread to $1.32/5 at 10:17 and went zero volume at 10:19 while the offer was $1.35 the bid side began rapidly entering and canceling orders at $1.31 with balanced quantities on the b/a. At 10:23 bid moved up to $1.32 and still no trades. Finally at 10:24 a 100-share trade occurred and low/no-volume 1.33/4 began. The period ended at $1.34. 10:42-10:50, after two minutes of no trades, did a two-minute ~3.9K $1.34->$1.38. No/low-volume $1.38 followed and the period ended on ~1.8K $1.38->$1.36. 10:51-11:12, after no trade the first minute, did 100 shares at $1.34 and no/low-volume $1.33/$1.34 began and ended at $1.33. 11:13-12:13, after four minutes of no trades, did ~7.8K $1.33->$1.32 and began no/low-volume $1.3250/$1.34, interrupted by a 12:02 ~25.5K $1.33/5 minute and ~13.4K at 12:05 $1.33/4, and ended $1.33/4. 12:14-12:41, after two minutes of no trades, did 100 shares at $1.35 and began no/low-volume $1.34/$1.35, interrupted by ~19K at 12:22 and ~10.1K $1.34/6 at 12:27 and 13.2K at 12:30, and ended at $1.34. 12:42-14:07 did a four-minute 10.5K drop to $1.30 and began low-volume $1.31/2, made $1.30/4 on ~8.3K at 12:51, and again began no/low-volume but at $1.32/3 until beginning a low-volume drop at 13:09, hitting $1.30/1 at 13:12. No/low-volume $1.31/2 immediately returned and the period ended at $1.31/2. 14:08-14:56 began with 11.3K $1.32/4 and with the next trade at 14:16 began no/low-volume $1.32/3, but for a one-minute ~1.7K $1.31/3 and 213 shares 14:55 $1.31/2, and the period ended at $1.32/3 on ~7.3K. 14:57-15:20 began with a two-minute ~8.3k move $1.32->$1.36 and began low-volume $1.33/5 and went no/low-volume $1.33/4 at 15:11 and ended there. 15:21-15:39 began with a two-minute ~9.5K $1.33->$1.37->$1.34 and began low-volume $1.34/5, $1.34/7 on 14K at 15:27 was followed by low-volume $1.34/6, and ended at $1.34. 15:40-16:00 began the normal (usually) high-volume volatile EOD behavior initially doing $1.34/5, went to $1.34/6 at 15:41 and came back to $1.34/5 the next minute and did $1.34/5 until the close of the period and day on a sell of 600 shares at $1.33.
There was one AH buy of 200 shares for $1.3353.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 65,154, 18.17% of day's volume, with a $1.3387 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 8 larger trades totaling 59,700, 16.65% of day's volume, with a $1.3377 VWAP. Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:05 62472 $1.2900 $1.3500 $82,460.69 $1.3200 17.42% 24.27% Incl 09:30 $1.3500 5,454 09:31 7,800
09:57 $1.3001 9,600
10:41 14091 $1.3200 $1.3500 $18,861.37 $1.3385 3.93% 31.72%
10:50 5706 $1.3400 $1.3800 $7,814.32 $1.3695 1.59% 31.16%
11:12 5150 $1.3300 $1.3400 $6,864.90 $1.3330 1.44% 31.49%
12:13 58565 $1.3200 $1.3500 $78,402.71 $1.3387 16.33% 34.75% Incl 12:02 $1.3500 5,700 12:05 $1.3400 10,000
12:41 45761 $1.3400 $1.3600 $61,689.65 $1.3481 12.76% 33.91% Incl 12:27 $1.3500 6,600 12:30 10,000
14:07 34764 $1.3000 $1.3400 $45,775.97 $1.3168 9.69% 36.28%
14:56 26211 $1.3100 $1.3400 $34,626.27 $1.3211 7.31% 38.21% Incl 14:08 $1.3188 5,000
15:20 16151 $1.3200 $1.3600 $21,609.99 $1.3380 4.50% 38.94%
15:39 32502 $1.3300 $1.3700 $43,861.84 $1.3495 9.06% 38.52%
16:00 52985 $1.3300 $1.3600 $71,222.88 $1.3442 14.77% 37.50% Incl 15:49 $1.3500 5,000
16:21 200 $1.3353 $1.3353 $267.06 $1.3353 0.06% 37.53%
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -8.78% -4.44% -7.80% -1.48% 21.55%
Prior -9.20% -6.25% -8.73% -7.53% -32.82%
On my minimal chart we traded almost completely below the short-term rising channel's support (bottom-most blue line) on rising volume but with a compressed range as compared to yesterday. The volume rise wasn't high enough to suggest an end of trend and does suggest more downside available. However, the compressing range combined with a "cupping" volume pattern does suggest we might have started bottoming, in which case volume should be lower tomorrow if we hold here or drop only slightly. That would be a positive sign.
Keep in mind that today was the first day after my three-day waiting period and I think it's really not rational to use today's stuff combined with the prior days' stuff to assess what's going on. Having said that, today closed below that potential support/resistance and we would need to see a close below again tomorrow to confirm a break below that support/resistance. I'd rather see trade and close above though! :-)
But yesterday's { ... history would suggest otherwise - leg down is likely to continue regardless of ... } looks to be the trend ATM. I also noted that things change eventually ... Yes, I'm still waiting for that too! :-(
On my one-year chart the 10-SMA continues to rise and the 20-day, which had gone flat yesterday, rose slightly. They are $1.3690 and $1.2785 ($1.3600 and $1.2770 yesterday). It's to soon to say that will hold though. What we can see is that if we don't go lower the 20-day is dropping lower prices off the tail. We need to see a rise for the 10-day to keep rising though. As with yesterday, today's lower close could ruin this if there's no recovery upward though.
The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3438 ($1.3522 yesterday). As mentioned recently, we still have some days to go before the 50-day starts to curl up, assuming price range doesn't drop. Right now that's a big assumption.
The oscillators I watch, which all weakened yesterday for the second consecutive day, weakened for the third consecutive day. Only MFI (untrusted by me) remains above neutral and Williams %R and full stochastic are likely to go into oversold tomorrow sans a price improvement.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.1495 and $1.5305 ($1.1166 and $1.5388 yesterday) continue converging, thanks to the lower limit rising faster than the upper limit, and the mid-point is moving up.
All in, the first day after my waiting period is acting as history would suggest but it's really too soon to call it a trend unless we choose to include the action during the waiting period. If we do so the "clearer picture" has began to emerge - continue the same old weakening come hell or high water or positive PR, semi-positive quarterly reports, etc.
So no positive signs on the horizon yet.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions again with short percentage moving into the lower end of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage moved further away from where it needs to be for price appreciation. Fortunately both moves were small and I'm inclined to think we'll see some price stability, or even appreciation, tomorrow due to the short percentage suggestion and the reasons below.
The spread continues to narrow and is now quite close to a "normal" range. Being in a short-term down trend I think this is a positive suggestion.
VWAP drop was cut almost in half on rising volume - a much less negative reading now.
All in, the overall flattish nature of the intra-day behavior after the early drop (smaller than usual) - we came back from that to make intra-day highs and had a narrowing, overall, spread as the day progressed - provides a mildly positive indication. Combined with short percentage getting into the low end of what I believe to be normal and adding in the narrowing spread, I see less negativity short-term.
I'm thinking some stability or even some appreciation in the next day or two.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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