Friday, September 04, 2015 9:34:59 PM
It's critical El Niño hits Northern California. Why experts are growing optimistic. .. as some of us lucky ones love to be .. .. :)
Fresh snow coats peaks in the Sierra Nevada on July 9. The strange weather is thought to be related to El Nino. (Bartshe Miller / Mono Lake Committee)
By Hailey Branson-Potts and Rong-Gong Lin II
July 23, 2015 4:00am
It's the middle of the summer, but it felt a bit like winter in the Sierra this week as a storm dumped four inches of hail on Interstate 80 around Donner Summit.
There was so much pea-sized ice that the California Highway Patrol on Tuesday halted traffic and called out snowplows — known as the "Sierra Snowfighters" — for help.
SIGN UP for the free Essential California newsletter >>
http://www.latimes.com/newsletters/la-newsletter-essential-california-signup-page-htmlstory.html
"It looked just like snow, a blanket of snow across all the lanes," said California Department of Transportation snowplower John Wheeler. "It was really weird."
The hail storm was just the latest strange weather to hit the Sierra Nevada, influenced by the weather-changing phenomenon El Niño. For months, climate scientists have said El Niño is likely to bring more rain to Southern California this winter.
But here's the big question in a state enduring four years of severe drought: How far north will El Niño's influence roam?
The El Niño hitting the mountains of the north is critical because California's vast waterworks rely on rain and snow from the Sierra to supply farms and cities. By contrast, much of the rain that falls in Southern California ends up in the ocean.
Experts are becoming more optimistic about El Niño's northern reach.
Only three months ago, all of California had an equal chance of a wet or a dry winter. But in May, the scales began to turn in favor of a wet winter.
By June, the official forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that both Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley would be in a region where odds favored wet conditions. Last week, the line moved north again, and San Francisco was included.
Related
Fires followed by floods: California faces dramatic climate year with El Nino, drought
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-el-nino-preview-20150721-story.html
See all related - http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-el-nino-north-20150723-story.html
Still, the area north of San Francisco, where California's largest reservoirs — Shasta Lake and Lake Oroville — sit, has an equal chance of a dry or wet winter.
That could change if El Niño continues to muscle up, enabling storms to elbow into the north. That's what happened during the two biggest El Niños on record, in 1982-83 and 1997-98.
"If this El Niño continues to strengthen, it would not surprise me to see … all the lines extend farther north," bringing the far reaches of the state into a zone where odds favor a wet winter, NOAA Climate Prediction Center Deputy Director Mike Halpert said.
El Niño can shift the so-called subtropical jet stream from the jungles of southern Mexico and Nicaragua north, over Southern California and the southern United States, said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.
Q&A
El Niño could bring disaster and drought relief to California
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-el-nino-forecast-20150721-story.html
"The really big El Niños — we're not there yet — can soak the whole state. But right now, it's possible to get a lot of flooding and mudslides in the south. In Northern California, you could get below-normal rainfall and snowpack," Patzert said. "So that's why I'm not calling this a drought-buster yet."
But even if storms pelt the north, as Stanford University climate scientist Daniel Swain expects they will, El Niño may not give California the drought relief many people might expect.
Much of the eastern Pacific Ocean is experiencing exceptionally warm temperatures, which could produce storms that dump far more rain than the usual mix of rain and snow, which can sit in the mountains for months before melting and trickling into reservoirs.
Too much rain all at once could force water to be flushed out to sea to keep dams from overflowing, and "there's no way we can possibly store all of the water," Swain said.
Lifelong residents in the mountain communities around Lake Tahoe have been talking about the weather for weeks. It has caused many to think back to the biggest El Niño year on record, 1997-98, when rains flooded homes along the Truckee River.
The amount of cumulative hail so far in July has been impressive, said Scott McGuire, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service's Reno office.
"We've certainly had more moisture in our region than we typically do," McGuire said, adding that El Niño "is definitely playing a role. It provides fuel for the atmosphere."
In early July, thunderstorms forced tourists from boats on Fallen Leaf Lake and suspended gondola rides at the Heavenly ski resort in South Lake Tahoe. Snow fell in the eastern Sierra, coating mountains east of Yosemite National Park. In Truckee, a Fourth of July rainstorm that caught locals by surprise was intense and relentless.
Interstate 10 bridge collapse
Don Bartletti / Los Angeles Times
Traffic in both directions of the major east-west highway has been stopped indefinitely while engineers assess the damage. [1 of 26]
The morning started off warm and sunny, with many in shorts watching the city's parade. Then suddenly people were running from Donner Pass Road into the Chamber of Commerce building, where they stood sopping wet until the storm passed.
"They were just like, 'Wow, it never rains on the Fourth of July,'" said Paola Cruz, 19, a welcome center concierge for the Truckee Donner Chamber of Commerce. "The tourists are like, 'Why is it raining? It's supposed to be summer.' I tell them we need water."
The summer storms have come after an exceptionally dry and snowless winter, painful for a place where skis and snowboards are the lifeblood. Ski resorts had to make their own snow to keep their doors open.
"The ski resorts had to close earlier than they had ever closed before," Cruz said. "We had people coming in to ski, but it just wasn't the same."
CHP Officer Pete Mann, 32, who has lived most of his life near Truckee, said that Tuesday's hailstorm was the talk of the town, and that it has prompted hopes for the winter.
"We live up here for a reason. We like living in the snow," Mann said. "If this is El Niño, if this is a sign of things to come, we'll take it."
Mann said that when he got home Tuesday night, he had to clear about three inches of hail that had accumulated on his deck. There was still some there Wednesday morning.
"It's always funny when you come home late at night and you have to shovel the deck in July," he said.
Hoy: Léa esta historia en español
hailey.branson@latimes.com
Twitter: @haileybranson
ron.lin@latimes.com
Twitter: @ronlin
ALSO:
California's powerful and influential air pollution watchdog
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-explainer-air-20150723-story.html#navtype=outfit
California can't stop global warming alone, but it can fix its highways
http://www.latimes.com/local/politics/la-me-cap-highways-20150723-column.html#navtype=outfit
Gov. Brown blasts climate change 'deniers' during Vatican conference
http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-gov-brown-blasts-climate-change-critics-during-vatican-conference-20150721-story.html
Copyright © 2015, Los Angeles Times
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-el-nino-north-20150723-story.html
===
Early 2015-16 Winter Forecast Detailed Analysis
Matthew Holliday | July 26, 2015
In the conclusion of my regional breakdown of the 2015-16 winter forecast last Sunday, I included a few winters that could be similar to this upcoming winter: 1957-58, 1986-87, and 2002-03. The 1957-58 and 1986-87 years are close ones to watch, even though there are still some pretty noticeable differences compared to this year. In recent months, you have likely heard about how this El Nino is going to be the strongest ever, and how it may end up smashing the previous records, even beating out the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Ninos. My goal is not to try to dispute that in this forecast, although I do believe that forecast models are overestimating how strong this El Nino will ultimately become.
By the way, if you care nothing about the reasoning behind my winter forecast, but instead just want to know what to expect this winter (without all of the complicated details), then check out my region-by-region breakdown of the winter forecast by clicking here .. http://bit.ly/1e9qolK . You can consider this latest article “part 2” of my early 2015-16 winter forecast.
El Nino’s Come In Different Flavors/The Pacific Remains Very Warm:
[...]
Putting All Of This Together:
As you can tell, forecasting this upcoming winter is going to be complicated, but I really hope that I’ve given you enough info to do your own research, if you choose to do so. I still believe that the 1957-58, 1986-87, and 2002-03 winters are excellent years to study up on. If you choose to research this further, you’ll quickly notice that there are some key differences in each of those years, but that’s not a bad thing. Some had more Greenland/Arctic blocking than others, and one, in particular, was strongly influenced by warmer waters in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast. What all of those years have in common is that there was a pronounced warm pool that extended from the northeast Pacific, down the West Coast, to the equatorial Pacific.
The reason SST anomalies are particularly important during the winter months is because as most already know, water has a higher heat capacity than land; therefore it takes much longer to change sea surface temperatures than land temperatures. These warmer or cooler bodies of water can warm or cool the air above them, which can have major impacts on weather patterns around the globe. That’s why the future evolution of the Pacific over these next few months is VERY important!
Hopefully this gives a little bit more of my reasoning behind why some aspects of my winter forecast differs than what would be expected from a typical strong El Nino winter. I explained a lot of what I was expecting this winter in my region-by-region breakdown of this forecast, which I strongly encourage you to read if you missed it. However, I want to briefly elaborate on a few points that I may have not been clear on last Sunday.
I’m expecting a very active winter in the wintry battle zone (region 7) of my forecast. With the combination of sub-tropical moisture getting pulled into the Southeast along with an active storm track, there should be plenty of opportunities to get wintry precipitation over that region if cold air is available (which in many cases, it should be). I explained last week that some of the most historic winter storms across the Southern Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic have occurred when temperatures as a whole for that winter were marginal. People automatically associate very cold weather with a lot of snow, but it doesn’t always work out that way.
I feel that a lot of the regions in my wintry battle zone will end up with above average snowfall, especially given that it only takes one storm to go above that average. However, I believe that ice storms could be a big issue this upcoming winter especially in the southern regions of my wintry battle zone, including cities like Birmingham, Atlanta, and maybe even Columbia. If sufficient cold air is available and the storm track is suppressed particularly far to the south, that threat could even be farther south, spilling into region 8 of my forecast. It’s really difficult to know exact details this far out though.
My region 6 area is the big wildcard this winter. I feel that a lot of those areas could definitely experience below average temperatures this winter, but determining how snowy this season will be for that region will be difficult at this point. There’s a reason that I cut off my wintry battle zone before reaching up the entire East Coast. The big bull’s eye should be a bit farther south this year, and cities like Boston shouldn’t get anything close to the amounts of snow that they got last winter. But if you’re located from Dallas, TX/OKC though the Southeast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic (my wintry battle zone), you’re the area I’m watching most closely at this point for a very active winter. Of course, that’s subject to change.
It seems to just be expected that California will get copious amounts of rain/snow this winter because of El Nino, and while I am predicting it to be much wetter over the area this winter, that is not guaranteed. When I get time, I plan to write a very detailed discussion on this topic. This El Nino should be strong enough to override the effects of any other potential negators in that area, but you just have to be careful when making those assumptions. I can give you examples of when it wasn’t wet during El Nino winters (e.g. 1986-87 winter) or when the heavier precipitation fell over northern California into Oregon instead of southern California (e.g. 1957-58, 2002-03 winters). You know my forecast, but believe with caution.
Right now, I’m leaning towards December being warmer for much of the U.S. with the exception maybe being over sections of the southern U.S. January, February, and even parts of March could be quite active and cold, particularly over the eastern U.S. I’ll be getting into details on specific months in my final winter forecast in November, so I’ll save that for when I hopefully have a much better handle on everything.
If you read this entire forecast, I’m impressed. In fact, if you made it through this entire forecast, comment on the site or on one of the social media pages, and let me know!
http://firsthandweather.com/955/early-2015-16-winter-forecast-detailed-analysis/
.. so .. lol .. we cam look to science, done .. appeal to Santa ..
Ariana Grande - Snow In California (Lyrics)
or .. If Man Obeyed God
chuckle .. that video is also just off the bottom here .. The Duggars Respond To Sexual Abuse Scandal
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114212232
Fresh snow coats peaks in the Sierra Nevada on July 9. The strange weather is thought to be related to El Nino. (Bartshe Miller / Mono Lake Committee)
By Hailey Branson-Potts and Rong-Gong Lin II
July 23, 2015 4:00am
It's the middle of the summer, but it felt a bit like winter in the Sierra this week as a storm dumped four inches of hail on Interstate 80 around Donner Summit.
There was so much pea-sized ice that the California Highway Patrol on Tuesday halted traffic and called out snowplows — known as the "Sierra Snowfighters" — for help.
SIGN UP for the free Essential California newsletter >>
http://www.latimes.com/newsletters/la-newsletter-essential-california-signup-page-htmlstory.html
"It looked just like snow, a blanket of snow across all the lanes," said California Department of Transportation snowplower John Wheeler. "It was really weird."
The hail storm was just the latest strange weather to hit the Sierra Nevada, influenced by the weather-changing phenomenon El Niño. For months, climate scientists have said El Niño is likely to bring more rain to Southern California this winter.
But here's the big question in a state enduring four years of severe drought: How far north will El Niño's influence roam?
The El Niño hitting the mountains of the north is critical because California's vast waterworks rely on rain and snow from the Sierra to supply farms and cities. By contrast, much of the rain that falls in Southern California ends up in the ocean.
Experts are becoming more optimistic about El Niño's northern reach.
Only three months ago, all of California had an equal chance of a wet or a dry winter. But in May, the scales began to turn in favor of a wet winter.
By June, the official forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that both Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley would be in a region where odds favored wet conditions. Last week, the line moved north again, and San Francisco was included.
Related
Fires followed by floods: California faces dramatic climate year with El Nino, drought
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-el-nino-preview-20150721-story.html
See all related - http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-el-nino-north-20150723-story.html
Still, the area north of San Francisco, where California's largest reservoirs — Shasta Lake and Lake Oroville — sit, has an equal chance of a dry or wet winter.
That could change if El Niño continues to muscle up, enabling storms to elbow into the north. That's what happened during the two biggest El Niños on record, in 1982-83 and 1997-98.
"If this El Niño continues to strengthen, it would not surprise me to see … all the lines extend farther north," bringing the far reaches of the state into a zone where odds favor a wet winter, NOAA Climate Prediction Center Deputy Director Mike Halpert said.
El Niño can shift the so-called subtropical jet stream from the jungles of southern Mexico and Nicaragua north, over Southern California and the southern United States, said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.
Q&A
El Niño could bring disaster and drought relief to California
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-el-nino-forecast-20150721-story.html
"The really big El Niños — we're not there yet — can soak the whole state. But right now, it's possible to get a lot of flooding and mudslides in the south. In Northern California, you could get below-normal rainfall and snowpack," Patzert said. "So that's why I'm not calling this a drought-buster yet."
But even if storms pelt the north, as Stanford University climate scientist Daniel Swain expects they will, El Niño may not give California the drought relief many people might expect.
Much of the eastern Pacific Ocean is experiencing exceptionally warm temperatures, which could produce storms that dump far more rain than the usual mix of rain and snow, which can sit in the mountains for months before melting and trickling into reservoirs.
Too much rain all at once could force water to be flushed out to sea to keep dams from overflowing, and "there's no way we can possibly store all of the water," Swain said.
Lifelong residents in the mountain communities around Lake Tahoe have been talking about the weather for weeks. It has caused many to think back to the biggest El Niño year on record, 1997-98, when rains flooded homes along the Truckee River.
The amount of cumulative hail so far in July has been impressive, said Scott McGuire, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service's Reno office.
"We've certainly had more moisture in our region than we typically do," McGuire said, adding that El Niño "is definitely playing a role. It provides fuel for the atmosphere."
In early July, thunderstorms forced tourists from boats on Fallen Leaf Lake and suspended gondola rides at the Heavenly ski resort in South Lake Tahoe. Snow fell in the eastern Sierra, coating mountains east of Yosemite National Park. In Truckee, a Fourth of July rainstorm that caught locals by surprise was intense and relentless.
Interstate 10 bridge collapse
Don Bartletti / Los Angeles Times
Traffic in both directions of the major east-west highway has been stopped indefinitely while engineers assess the damage. [1 of 26]
The morning started off warm and sunny, with many in shorts watching the city's parade. Then suddenly people were running from Donner Pass Road into the Chamber of Commerce building, where they stood sopping wet until the storm passed.
"They were just like, 'Wow, it never rains on the Fourth of July,'" said Paola Cruz, 19, a welcome center concierge for the Truckee Donner Chamber of Commerce. "The tourists are like, 'Why is it raining? It's supposed to be summer.' I tell them we need water."
The summer storms have come after an exceptionally dry and snowless winter, painful for a place where skis and snowboards are the lifeblood. Ski resorts had to make their own snow to keep their doors open.
"The ski resorts had to close earlier than they had ever closed before," Cruz said. "We had people coming in to ski, but it just wasn't the same."
CHP Officer Pete Mann, 32, who has lived most of his life near Truckee, said that Tuesday's hailstorm was the talk of the town, and that it has prompted hopes for the winter.
"We live up here for a reason. We like living in the snow," Mann said. "If this is El Niño, if this is a sign of things to come, we'll take it."
Mann said that when he got home Tuesday night, he had to clear about three inches of hail that had accumulated on his deck. There was still some there Wednesday morning.
"It's always funny when you come home late at night and you have to shovel the deck in July," he said.
Hoy: Léa esta historia en español
hailey.branson@latimes.com
Twitter: @haileybranson
ron.lin@latimes.com
Twitter: @ronlin
ALSO:
California's powerful and influential air pollution watchdog
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-explainer-air-20150723-story.html#navtype=outfit
California can't stop global warming alone, but it can fix its highways
http://www.latimes.com/local/politics/la-me-cap-highways-20150723-column.html#navtype=outfit
Gov. Brown blasts climate change 'deniers' during Vatican conference
http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-gov-brown-blasts-climate-change-critics-during-vatican-conference-20150721-story.html
Copyright © 2015, Los Angeles Times
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-el-nino-north-20150723-story.html
===
Early 2015-16 Winter Forecast Detailed Analysis
Matthew Holliday | July 26, 2015
In the conclusion of my regional breakdown of the 2015-16 winter forecast last Sunday, I included a few winters that could be similar to this upcoming winter: 1957-58, 1986-87, and 2002-03. The 1957-58 and 1986-87 years are close ones to watch, even though there are still some pretty noticeable differences compared to this year. In recent months, you have likely heard about how this El Nino is going to be the strongest ever, and how it may end up smashing the previous records, even beating out the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Ninos. My goal is not to try to dispute that in this forecast, although I do believe that forecast models are overestimating how strong this El Nino will ultimately become.
By the way, if you care nothing about the reasoning behind my winter forecast, but instead just want to know what to expect this winter (without all of the complicated details), then check out my region-by-region breakdown of the winter forecast by clicking here .. http://bit.ly/1e9qolK . You can consider this latest article “part 2” of my early 2015-16 winter forecast.
El Nino’s Come In Different Flavors/The Pacific Remains Very Warm:
[...]
Putting All Of This Together:
As you can tell, forecasting this upcoming winter is going to be complicated, but I really hope that I’ve given you enough info to do your own research, if you choose to do so. I still believe that the 1957-58, 1986-87, and 2002-03 winters are excellent years to study up on. If you choose to research this further, you’ll quickly notice that there are some key differences in each of those years, but that’s not a bad thing. Some had more Greenland/Arctic blocking than others, and one, in particular, was strongly influenced by warmer waters in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast. What all of those years have in common is that there was a pronounced warm pool that extended from the northeast Pacific, down the West Coast, to the equatorial Pacific.
The reason SST anomalies are particularly important during the winter months is because as most already know, water has a higher heat capacity than land; therefore it takes much longer to change sea surface temperatures than land temperatures. These warmer or cooler bodies of water can warm or cool the air above them, which can have major impacts on weather patterns around the globe. That’s why the future evolution of the Pacific over these next few months is VERY important!
Hopefully this gives a little bit more of my reasoning behind why some aspects of my winter forecast differs than what would be expected from a typical strong El Nino winter. I explained a lot of what I was expecting this winter in my region-by-region breakdown of this forecast, which I strongly encourage you to read if you missed it. However, I want to briefly elaborate on a few points that I may have not been clear on last Sunday.
I’m expecting a very active winter in the wintry battle zone (region 7) of my forecast. With the combination of sub-tropical moisture getting pulled into the Southeast along with an active storm track, there should be plenty of opportunities to get wintry precipitation over that region if cold air is available (which in many cases, it should be). I explained last week that some of the most historic winter storms across the Southern Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic have occurred when temperatures as a whole for that winter were marginal. People automatically associate very cold weather with a lot of snow, but it doesn’t always work out that way.
I feel that a lot of the regions in my wintry battle zone will end up with above average snowfall, especially given that it only takes one storm to go above that average. However, I believe that ice storms could be a big issue this upcoming winter especially in the southern regions of my wintry battle zone, including cities like Birmingham, Atlanta, and maybe even Columbia. If sufficient cold air is available and the storm track is suppressed particularly far to the south, that threat could even be farther south, spilling into region 8 of my forecast. It’s really difficult to know exact details this far out though.
My region 6 area is the big wildcard this winter. I feel that a lot of those areas could definitely experience below average temperatures this winter, but determining how snowy this season will be for that region will be difficult at this point. There’s a reason that I cut off my wintry battle zone before reaching up the entire East Coast. The big bull’s eye should be a bit farther south this year, and cities like Boston shouldn’t get anything close to the amounts of snow that they got last winter. But if you’re located from Dallas, TX/OKC though the Southeast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic (my wintry battle zone), you’re the area I’m watching most closely at this point for a very active winter. Of course, that’s subject to change.
It seems to just be expected that California will get copious amounts of rain/snow this winter because of El Nino, and while I am predicting it to be much wetter over the area this winter, that is not guaranteed. When I get time, I plan to write a very detailed discussion on this topic. This El Nino should be strong enough to override the effects of any other potential negators in that area, but you just have to be careful when making those assumptions. I can give you examples of when it wasn’t wet during El Nino winters (e.g. 1986-87 winter) or when the heavier precipitation fell over northern California into Oregon instead of southern California (e.g. 1957-58, 2002-03 winters). You know my forecast, but believe with caution.
Right now, I’m leaning towards December being warmer for much of the U.S. with the exception maybe being over sections of the southern U.S. January, February, and even parts of March could be quite active and cold, particularly over the eastern U.S. I’ll be getting into details on specific months in my final winter forecast in November, so I’ll save that for when I hopefully have a much better handle on everything.
If you read this entire forecast, I’m impressed. In fact, if you made it through this entire forecast, comment on the site or on one of the social media pages, and let me know!
http://firsthandweather.com/955/early-2015-16-winter-forecast-detailed-analysis/
.. so .. lol .. we cam look to science, done .. appeal to Santa ..
Ariana Grande - Snow In California (Lyrics)
or .. If Man Obeyed God
chuckle .. that video is also just off the bottom here .. The Duggars Respond To Sexual Abuse Scandal
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114212232
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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