(1) "Are their scrips leveling off as you say?"
GILD's HCV scripts have been leveling off at best. Bloomberg TRx numbers have beens been in the 11,800s and 11,900s for 5 weeks, down from a top of 12,119 in the week ending 3/13. The NRx numbers have been in the 5100s for three weeks down from a high of 5,432 on 2/13. The IMS numbers are clearly down. Last week, TRx was 11,191, down from 11,711 6 weeks ago and a high of 12,197 on 3/29. More striking the NRx are now at 4,104, down from and high of 5,020 on 2/13, and now about 20% below the Bloomberg number. The totals for the quarter will probably exceed the numbers for last quarter since the January numbers were so low since Harvoni was still phasing in. As to the other HCV players, they are either declining or level. Olysio has continued down to a level of 223/76 last week, from 338/113 in mid-March and 578/275 in mid-January. V-Pak (Bloomberg) is actually down to 765/442 from a peak of 888/503 on 3/27. Again the quarterly numbers will be much higher than Q1 since it had very small numbers in January and February.
(2) "And what about ex-US, or has that market barely started with the newest treatment regimens?"
No way to know. The general assumption is that sales will continue to grow for quite a time, but how fast and to what level is really a guess. BMY had growing sales in Q1 (Japan and EU) and Olysio had surprising high sales too, much higher than than in the US. GILD surprised with very significant growth. I (and many others) are expecting growth for GILD and ABBV for quite a while. It will be interesting to see if BMY and Olysio can grow or even maintain their current OUS sales.
