Breitburn Energy Partners LP fka BBEPQ

[Santa Barbara Broker]

'I don't care about your technical indicators'

Fine, then check the SEC filings, check the plethora of totally incorrect information you are posting about BBEP and finally, check the scoreboard. If you are waiting for BBEP to 'drop into the four dollar range' then you are waiting for either a general market collapse or catastrophic news that has eluded even the principals. This partnership is not Exxon/Mobil. They don't take two years to make policy and fundamental accounting changes. They identified the situation with the contrived (read: temporary) oil 'glut' and took their borrowing challenges into consideration. They then adjusted the common stock dividend last December and cut G&A spending across the board to compensate for oil at an average well below $75 for the next two years. Crisis? Check. Dealt with? Check.

Now if they have their current credit line readjusted in April they may have to move to their shelf registration proxies to compensate. But we have between now and April till that happens and it would appear that outside of news concerning a major discovery the size of Alaska, the price of oil has hit a fairly firm bottom. Meanwhile, the risk in the stock appears to be an established base of $5.00 providing they hit their modestly adjusted earning projections in February and the price of oil doesn't radically decline below $45 BBL. As neither of those scenarios seem poised to happen I say the stock price movement today is anything but a dead cat bounce. And with the price of oil projected to remain from slightly below $50 a BBL to upwards of $75 BBL by year end and final quarter earnings 2014 for BBEP projected to range from ($0.01) to $.20, average .15 cents, I'd say the common share dividend is safe. BTW, the last dividend declaration was .0833 cents per month not quarter, chief. Declared Jan 5, 2015:

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/bbep/dividend-history

$4.00 a share? That would entail a 58% decline from here which would seem unlikely at best seeing it just went through a catastrophic 78% decline due to commodity turmoil and not internal or self inflicted financial issues. With earnings TBA consensus among 11 analysts averaging .15 cents, the reality coming in anywhere above the $.10 to $.12 cent range would render another serious decline very unlikely. And as for the present, well it's too bad that $4 train appears (temporarily at least) to have left even the $6 station behind us....