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Re: GreenOwner post# 36208

Sunday, 08/31/2014 12:08:10 PM

Sunday, August 31, 2014 12:08:10 PM

Post# of 52074
No I didn't miss the 1 year, 3 year calculation lump issue. Since it had already been pointed out I didn't repeat it other than to say also, and I listed both in separate lines as separate examples with a different concept, namely multiple is based on growth or recurring revenue. Point being, that if they get acceptance early but they can't get a bigger share then valuation switches to wearout.
There are no easy answers, because considering the many what-if scenarios that exist there are dozens of different possibilities. However another way to look at this is if wearout is every 10 years then blue sky cumulative net income over that span of time using 1 sale to every hospital is as follows:

$125k times 5,759 times 50% after paying a marketer times 80% gross margin times disposable cash after US tax rate (guess 65%?)=$187M.
It gets more interesting when you compare that to the amount of HAI costs you think they can save a hospital. There are lots of other products out there that will contribute to cutting HAI if adopted and MZEI can't do the total job alone anyway however there is a contra idea in MZEI's marketing favour that HAI will soar when new bugs with stronger immunity systems emerge. Average HAI hospital costs PER YEAR is $5.2M = $30B/5759. How much a hospital believes it can cut from $5.2 M with a $12.5k PER YEAR mzei device with $15 per room opex plus labour to seal ducts is the key.

For a multiple you have to wait 10 years for them to wear out so maybe get a 2. This excludes the value of a maintenance contract - central sterilizers sell for $160k but require a whopping $480k maintenance and consumables contract (MZEI machine uses hp that anyone can purchase so no consumables)over its 10 year life.

This is an extremely novel technology because it kills all, cheap in comparison to HAI costs (which aren't reimbursed to hospitals by Medicare) but very expensive and slow in relation to UV which is not a perfect solution because it only provides limited kill.
These guys claim UV is pennies per room and takes only 15 minutes with minimal labour http://www.cleanhospital.com/torch.html

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