And thanks to you for even asking. You might be surprised to find that many investors hold back from asking. No, I take that back---unless you were in the brokerage business strictly on the wholesale side, you'd know as well as anybody that the tendency is to hide truths, especially on the retail side of things. Anyhow, I'm constantly learning, challenged by the challenges affecting others. It pushes me to rethink anew---sort of like trying to develop a play within a play where the surface plot is anything but the ruling force within.
Moderating on the CVR Refining board, I was asked this week about how to handle events (fire and multiple injuries affecting four employees). Investors weren't factoring in the one month shutdown for more than 20% reduction in throughput announced via CEO guidance---all this to occupy a full third of Q3's (forward) production. Further complicating things is the steady rise in unit value IMMEDIATELY following going ex-dividend a few days ago.
Is it crazy? Of course it is. I suggested board participants weigh the above items and ask themselves what might keep them committed cash-wise, given that cash flow will be necessarily impacted hugely. One would think that businesses do not operate solely for the sake of altruism without a thought as to the bottom line.
After I made my concluding remarks at the board, I had to admit to myself and later to them that I was a fool to ignore what I knew to be true---and I promptly sold the balance of my positions.
This gets more interesting in light of the fact that units have risen at all, in light of the devastation visited upon the company. It looks to me like there's an artificial support system in place that is buoying things in the absence of sound business fundamentals. This morning I awakened to the thought that Carl Icahn very likely has something to do with this. And at some point a plug will be yanked and many will drown in pain.
All this to say that opportunities to guide another seem to enrich us all in the end. When explaining the 3 P's, I always wonder what path to take for it can be explained in different ways. So I try to become my own student for that moment and look for the simplest, most focused way to present something to an audience not necessarily versed in the subject. The better I get at this, the wiser I become in my own dealings.
We're fortunate to have you here as a participant. Something I'm hoping will become the topic of the moment at some point has to do with recognizing market activity as a feeding ground spawning foraging on the part of investors. Frenzied moments ensue when feasts and famines surface. For now, I'll say I'm loving the fact that we have another resident professional knowledgeable in some of the ways of the stock market. Others have made their way towards center stage and this makes all of us richer for the shared experience.
Will look at Falcon and get back to you. At first glance I'm disturbed by the crazy low volume. But the "F" tag following the symbol (for those new to this) indicates that the company is domiciled out of this country. Notwithstanding, the tag also means that we can trade the stock easily. The pink status is for trading convenience and does not suggest this could be a sleaze outfit at all. I should emphasize that the pink designation enables us to place our trades through electronic means allowing us to enjoy discounted trading fees. However--- we are not seeing the whole trading picture with respect to volume.
The primary depiction of trading volume is in Ireland.
If you have the time, take a look at HENC. These two companies embody a few items of commonality. Hmmmmmmm.......
I'm enjoying this!
Disclaimer: I have no position in HENC.
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