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Re: tsoprano-1 post# 65

Wednesday, 08/13/2014 1:33:40 PM

Wednesday, August 13, 2014 1:33:40 PM

Post# of 103
Thank you for your kind words. However, I should have added something by way of a caveat earlier:

CVR Refining (CVRR) will likely drop considerably from today's opening price because of a fire announced last week. It occurred around the day after the stock went ex-dividend so it wouldn't affect Q2 but will most definitely do so when it becomes time for the Q3 payout. As a consequence, I sold off my position entirely today.

Reflecting on it more carefully to be of help to you and any interested others, I realized how short-sighted I'd been. After all, there are huge expenses usually accompanying refinery fires and/or explosions. And in this instance there were four injuries as well. This is really frightening stuff in my mind and it will take money to resolve---lots of it.

Most likely I'll restore the position when positive guidance comes out from the General Partner. Meanwhile, I figure it's just a matter of time before units tank, possibly into the $21 range, well down from the $25+ just days ago. Understood, of course, units are currently represented with the 96 cent distribution removed as per SEC mandate. It makes little sense to place value on a stock equal to that of a week earlier after stating that its production will be seriously impacted by a fire and injuries going forward.

Bottom line: I believe it would be a silly mistake to start a position in CVRR at this time.

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