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Yes true, BUT John Chiang (liberal nut) is running for governor in CA and this is just done for optics for him to get campaign support.... it means nothing to FQM... they could care less what John Chiang thinks hahaha
I honestly think Pruitt did this to shut up the environmentalists and liberal nuts to help NAK.... This way, they're celebrating what they imagine to be the Obama era comeback while the EIS is being drafted and approvals are in the pipeline. You'd have to be a moron to think Pruitt and Trump would do as Obama did here...
As for strategy though... between now and when FQM deal is inked and a major buys the other half, the price will have downward pressure as many investors have sold in fear... I don't believe we have reach the bottom yet. Also, shorts are going crazy now with this news.
The long term should still be good but I would wait a bit before jumping in
1/26/18 Sen. Murkowski: "Administrator Pruitt is taking a balanced approach by allowing Pebble to enter the permitting process ... [and noting] EPA’s duty to fully protect the region’s world-class fisheries ... With the company now having filed its application, I expect that a fair, rigorous, and transparent process will soon begin so that Alaskans can understand the impacts and risks, as well as the potential benefits associated with this project.”
http://www.ktuu.com/content/news/EPA-revives-Obama-proposal-to-block-Pebble-mine-471361284.html
1/26/18 PRUITT: "this decision neither deters nor derails the application process of Pebble Limited Partnership’s proposed project. The project proponents continue to enjoy the protection of due process and the right to proceed."
http://www.ktuu.com/content/news/EPA-revives-Obama-proposal-to-block-Pebble-mine-471361284.html
NRDC: May 2017 Settlement Still In Place
NAK just doesn't get guaranteed approval... In the ends, EPA/Pruitt/Trump will still approve. This just takes away the "categorical green light" and "blank check" approval...
"Indeed, a May 2017 settlement with the mining company that limits EPA’s ability to restrict the project remains in place."
"He has denied the Pebble Partnership a categorical green light -- the freedom from EPA oversight -- that the company has long sought and has relentlessly promised to investors would be imminently forthcoming. "
"...a decision that deprives the Canadian-based mining company of the blank check from EPA that, since last May, the company has been eagerly anticipating it would cash."
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/joel-reynolds/epa-declines-withdraw-oversight-pebble-mine
RSI short-term bullish trend (identified above 1.52) ... let's go NAK!
Resistance at 1.50...
Link please?
I agree. It's definitely gotten better. Everything is on track! Now the question is: who will become FQM's partner and buy the other 50%... we will see it after the FQM deal is finalized.
I ain't holding thousands of shares for no reason: "Majors can bid to buyout the remaining 50% of NAK after the FM framework deal is signed. Investors should not be caught off guard by an early deal signing."
Drop today is also due to the significant drop in copper...
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HG1:COM
Don't confuse NAK with Pebble. Yes, Pebble will take several more years to be operational and generate profit. BUT NAK will be bought out and NAK shareholders will make a a handsome profit... That will happen within the next 2 years... Buy-out can happen at any point. What is CLEAR is that NAK does not want to actually mine Pebble... They want to sell it and let a major take over.
See my earlier post below from the horse's own mouth on NAK's strategy...
Very curious indeed...
Oh yea! It's time. High 1.60s was the resistance... Shorts would be blind not to see there's nothing here for them anymore.. Better take their profits and move along...
Agree about waiting on the remaining 50% until they have the EIS (which is what management has said in public interview. But the current 50% with FQM can easily be scratched if another player steps in, offers the same amount of cash over the next few years but with either a guarantee buy of the 50% or even an option at a price higher than $1.5B. Now that application has been filed and accepted, NAK has even more leverage. I can easily see this happening before the FQM agreement is finalized by early Q2. Heck, FQM may raise their price to lock down and avoid being outbid... And permitting application process will even be farther along with more developments in the coming weeks and certainly by "early Q2"
The First Quantum deal will be finalized by early Q2 of this year. So, NOW is the time for another player to come in and outbid for that 50%. Man, the more I think about it, the framework agreement with First Quantum was BRILLIANT!!
"Finalization and execution of the option agreement and associated commercial agreements is expected early in the second quarter of 2018."
https://www.northerndynastyminerals.com/site/assets/files/4623/december_18-_2017.pdf
Great article, hits the nail right on the head on many points.
Stock price manipulation due to: "29,940,200 shares short. (11.42% of float) 1/12/2018."
"FQM has put them self in a very dangerous position by accepting to pay the permits before signing on as the first partner. Their 50% ownership is at risk of being stolen by larger majors with much deeper pockets. That is unless... FQM finalizes the deal by February and before any other possible bidder enters the stage. In doing this NDM will be put into a potentially dangerous situation allowing for a hostile take over of the their own company. Shareholders however win and profit greatly from either of these outcomes."
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/48346349-jesse-zarzycki/5098978-northern-dynasty-minerals-looking-back-moving-forward
You hit the nail on the head... Trump and Pruitt are beyond committed to see NAK succeed. NAK's permit approval is on a fast track basis. It only took what a week or 2 for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to review the lengthy application and deem it COMPLETE... they are reviewing on expedited basis and EIS will come out much sooner than the average turnaround time for other applications...
HC Wainwright Reiterates Buy Rating for Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK)
https://www.dispatchtribunal.com/2018/01/12/hc-wainwright-reiterates-buy-rating-for-northern-dynasty-minerals-nak-2.html
The underlying facts are all positive and the future is as bright as ever for NAK. They've delivered on everything. I don't get bogged down by short term price manipulation due to short sellers. In due time, there will be a SHORT SQUEEZE... current price grossly undervalues NAK, as evidenced by all analysts (Cantor Fitzgerald, BMO Capital, etc.)
They borrow them from margin accounts. I have my NAK shares in a cash account so no one can touch them. If you have a margin account, call your broker and tell them to not allow anyone to borrow them. If everyone did that, shorts would be dead!
Yes, that's why I will add back at the end of January. I just had to do it for tax purposes but I am long on NAK!
That's exactly right. I dumped some of my shares yesterday and today (only about 40% of my total though) for tax loss purposes but I am long on the remaining shares I have and will add more in 30 days (to avoid wash).
While I agree with your general premise, we have a different situation here. NAK's strategy (according to Ron Thiessen) is to get the EIS draft in 2019, and then sell off its remaining 50% interest to a major mining company. Thus, we don't have to wait many years for mining operations to start. We have to wait until 2019 at the latest (of course another mining company may come in at any time and buy at a lower price before the EIS draft is out, because they'll be able to pay less than they would once the EIS draft is out).
And as you said the stock will go up on news... there will be many announcements coming up (when Army Corps of Engineers accept the application and deem it complete, every time NAK files an application with other federal and state agencies, etc.).
THIS IS HUGE! Ron Thiessen: "We retained 50% of this project. We own 50%. There is no veto. It's not a controlled position on the other side, and so, if you will, the bridesmaid in this is still out there and I think the opportunity for somebody else to come along and take on a project like this and partner with First Quantum is still very opportune at some point in the future. I think the key for that is going to be, and I've talked to Tom Collier about this quite a bit, and Tom is running Pebble and the permitting process, when we see that draft EIS in 2019 and people see the major mining companies and the mining companies see man, that's very normal, there is nothing unusual about this, and don't, you know, we reengineered this to be a small footprint... Even though we reduced the footprint, the amount of metal we'll produce is very significant."
https://katusaresearch.com/exclusive-update-interview-ron-thiessen/
WOW!!! This is BRILLIANT. Here is their strategy. They did not want to dilute shares to pay for the permitting application/process. So they entered into this option agreement with FQ to have FQ fork over $37.5M, in exchange for literally nothing at this point, while retaining 50% (even if FQ exercises $1.5B option later on). Now, they're waiting to get the DRAFT EIS (notice, not even the complete end product of EIS, just the DRAFT), because then they can show it to major mining companies who will take NAK seriously... and then they'll sell off the remaining 50% interest at a PREMIUM much more than the $1.5B option to FQ (which was given to FQ at a discount, both because of the current process NAK did not have much to show for and because FQ is forking over money with nothing in return at this point...). This is brilliant.... So we will see NAK BOUGHT OUT in 2019; that's the strategy Thiessen just laid out. Don't miss this, this is HUGE!!!
Thanks, alidare for posting this video.
Even if metals don't rise, NAK still has tremendous assets under the ground, that are, as you said, "REAL" unlike a lot of speculative stocks.
I'm staying LONG and I have all the more reason to after seeing NAK advancing along as planned... they filed the application, got the first installment of $37.5 million, and will have a funding partner for the rest of the permitting phase. Everything is moving in the right direction with extremely friendly federal and state governments.
Right, but still at the total $1.5B, no? Meaning, they could pay the $37.5m now, then 6 months later decide they want to exercise the option then, instead of waiting 4 years, and to do so they will need to accelerate the other 3 installments of $37.5m, and pay the $1.35B. That's how I interpret the deal.
Thanks for the advice.
Are you saying they can pay the first $37.5m installment, and then exercise the option for $1.35B for the 50% interest before making the other 3 installments? I may have misread what you were trying to say.
The website is called "fool.com" for a reason hahaha
But you're absolutely right about how options work.
As I've said, this deal is actually very reasonable both for NAK (who gets its permitting funded with basically no dilution) and for FQM (who gets a discounted price for the 50% option by putting $150m upfront for very little risk until the permits are obtained).
That was quite interesting!
This is GOLD!
We have to fight the shorts:
Cantor Fitzgerald's target is $4.75 by one year, not 2013.
The Cantor-Fitzgerald, BMO, and other reports are confirming this deal is good for NAK and takes out risks to investors. Along with these reports that are just getting out today and in the upcoming days, more investors will flock to NAK, especially when it is at such a low bargain right now!
If you have a margin account, call your broker and tell them to not allow your shares to be borrowed... That's how short sellers get their shares. I have a cash account so no body is touching my shares. I'm buying more today because NAK is an absolute bargain right now... What we know now post-FQ funding agreement, is that permitting will in fact be funded, shares will not be diluted, a friendly Alaskan and federal government will expedite the permitting... NAK is sitting on top of the world's largest copper deposit with gold and other precious metals. There are billions of dollars worth of assets. This is not speculation, plain facts.
There are 3 scenarios after the inevitable permitting: (1) most likely, NAK gets $1.35B from FQ for 50% interest in Pebble, with the other 50% being bought out at a premium to shareholders (because by then they will have a permit in hand), (2) NAK gets $1.35B from FQ for 50% interest in Pebble, and profits from the other 50% interest for many years to come, (3) FQ doesn't exercise option (highly unlikely), and NAK can partner/sell at a higher premium because by then they have permit in hand and ready to dig up the gold, copper, etc.
"Funding agreement" - that is the best description of the deal I have heard so far. Accurate and to the point. First Quantum will fund the permitting and start of operations. With no dilution to shareholders. It's actually a brilliant deal if you stop, think, and analyze it.
*short sellers!!
Right, but I took into account a conservative boost from positive PR about the First Quantum news (which I believe large investors, upon further analysis and digestion, will realize is a win-win) and also from the permit filing news. You can call it "noise" I suppose, but it should have a positive impact.
That's right, if nothing else, there is an announcement coming this week or next week when they officially file for the permit (according to Mark Hamilton by end of December), and they will receive $37.5 million cash from First Quantum next Monday. There is also positive PR coming out, and who knows what else NAK has up its sleeve but we will see greens within the next couple weeks, back up to around $2.50.
And that is consistent with the valuation we have expected all along... that is, the partnership resulting in $6-9 per share value.