Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The 4 year chart looks beautiful, with 2 incidents of a 1,000%+ run. There's resistance at the 6-7 cent range. But once buyers push through this and sellers are gone, this will rocket easily to the next resistance at around 25 cents (which is only a very weak resistance), and possibly to the 70 cents or more range if it were to follow the 1,000% runs in the past.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/tAtKeiUa8VJFJndEA
The chart shows an uptrend still with some profit taking today. Remember, trend is more important than daily price fluctuations. Added more at 6 pesos.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/CAT79JEETAzdHTdg9
To da m00n!
Not necessarily. Companies that do reverse splits because of poor deteriorating financials leading them down that path below $1 and thus getting kicked off or in danger of getting kicked off a major stock exchange, THOSE are the ones you want to avoid when doing a reverse split.
However, those stocks that are trying to uplist and have increasing revenue/profit (i.e. good financials), a reverse split is non-consequential, and in fact, may even trigger buying due to the increased probability of listing on a major exchange.
Another example is HEAR, where they did a reverse split, but their revenues shot up the roof from Fortnite players. Reverse splits are not always bad. It depends on the REASON for the reverse split.
Remember when you were warned?
How much you guys lose? Just curious. Lessons learned yet?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=144050241
Prediction: If the market is flat or bounces up (which I expect), $NBEV should move higher.
My original analysis: https://photos.app.goo.gl/p4QvoDTYLttvW1Lr5
What actually happened: https://photos.app.goo.gl/kTc7QxEy63uHugxu8
Notice the charts are very similar. The only real deviation was when the Nasdaq tanked hard, dropping $NBEV with it below the super bullish trend line, but still well above of the major uptrend line.
I'm expecting the market to bounce, although there's a possibility it could drop another 2% or so. If the market bounces, $NBEV should have less selling pressure. If it can get above $10, there'll be a massive short squeeze to $12+ and $15+ in short order.
My prediction on the Nasdaq: https://photos.app.goo.gl/udknNUn9v6qA9JNp8
LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! so true. They won't even read it. And those that do, say it's fake news like Trump lol
More Due Diligence on this scam that is India Globalization Capital, Inc.
I spent some time doing some due diligence on $IGC (India Globalization Capital, Inc.), specifically focusing on the original S-1 SEC form filed in 2005, some of the 10-K forms, and the 4336 Montgomery Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20814 address. Here’s what I’ve uncovered:
1. Their S-1 Form ( https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326205/000095013705005983/c95282sv1.htm ) filed in 2005 states the following:
a. “We have agreed to pay Integrated Global Networks, LLC or IGN, LLC, an affiliate of Mr. Mukunda, a monthly fee of $7,500 for general and administrative services including office space, utilities and secretarial support.” (Page 20, S-1)
b. “We have agreed to pay IGN, LLC, an affiliate of Mr. Mukunda, a monthly fee of $7,500 for general and administrative services including office space, utilities and secretarial support. This arrangement is for our benefit and is not intended to provide Mr. Mukunda, Chief Executive Officer of IGN, LLC and our Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, with compensation in lieu of salary. We believe, based on rents and fees for similar services in the Washington, DC metropolitan area, that the fee charged by IGN, LLC is at least as favorable as we could have obtained from an unaffiliated third party. However, because our directors may not be deemed “independent”, we did not have the benefit of disinterested directors approving the transaction.” (Page 26, S-1). "They" or "Ram" also pays himself like $350,000 or so in one of the 10-Ks I read.
c. “While it is possible that one or more of our officers, directors and special advisors will remain associated with us in some capacity following a business combination, it is unlikely that any of them will devote their full efforts to our affairs subsequent to a business combination.” (Page 32, S-1)
d. This S-1 Form referenced the 4336 Montgomery Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20814 and in fact, many SEC forms says to communicate with the directors, to mail written letters to this address. This implies the address is accessible to $IGC employees.
2. Their most recent 10-K Form, filed 6-21-2018 states the following:
a. “We pay an affiliate of our CEO $4,500 per month for office space and certain general and administrative services rendered in Maryland. In addition, we pay another affiliate of our CEO $6,100 per month for office and facilities in Washington State. We believe, based on rents and fees for similar services in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area and Washington State, that the fee charged by the affiliates are at least as favorable as we could have obtained from an unaffiliated third-party and these payments are not considered or meant to be compensation… The rental agreement for Washington State facilities was renewed on January 1, 2018 for a period of one year, expiring on December 31, 2018, unless renewed by mutual consent, at $6,100 per month and for a one-time mutually-agreed renewal fee of $106,283.”
3. Yet, a Google street view image, dated September, 2017, shows the above address as a child day care center, called “My Arbol House”.
4. In fact, many other searches find other businesses at this address, such as:
a. Fulford Road LLC
b. Aftel LLC
c. Sattrans USA LLC (Their website clearly shows this address)
d. Extra Clean, Inc. (from the 90s)
e. Rudden Real Estate (Do some homework & you’ll see there’s a legit realtor with this name & business).
f. Maloney Home Solutions
5. The Google street view is not very detailed so you can’t see the full sign of “The Arbol House”. If you try to Google it, you can’t really find many details on it. No reviews, nothing. However, there appears to be a website on the sign that reads www.myarbolhouse.com. If you try to go to www.myarbolhouse.com, it does not work. If you attempt to do a WHOIS on the URL, because it’s been closed down, you can’t find any details on it.
6. However, using some ingenuity, I was able to find snapshot images of this website: https://web.archive.org/web/20141004152543/http://www.myarbolhouse.com:80/about-us/our-office/ which shows a phone number of: 301-500-7685, and the very same street address above, confirming Google is correct.
7. Search this phone number on Google, and it belongs to another day care: Happy Hands Learning Center. Their website ( http://happyhandslc.com ) shows an address of 4314 Montgomery Ave Bethesda, MD 20814, just down the street a few buildings! Hmmm. The “About” says it was started by a Ruth Zepeda and Lea Zepeda.
8. Using archive.org, I confirm 100% that around December, 2011, Happy Hands LC’s phone number was 301-986-7965. As of January, 2014, their phone number was none other than 301-500-7685. And as of September, 2017, their phone number became 240-204-8386.
9. Next, I find this: https://myarbolhouse.com.cutestat.com/ which shows Registrant Name: Lea Zepeda. Bingo! There we have it.
My conclusions:
1. The S-1 form was filled out with the intent of using $IGC as a pump and dump, specifically for China and India since none of the founding directors were expected to spend time “devoted” to the business. If you look at some of their older 10-Ks, they reference some of their activities in China, India, inner Mongolia etc.
2. This turned into a “flavor of the month” pump and dump when they realized they could do blockchain pump and dump.
3. Their CEO is paid a lot of money just to “rent” his places to $IGC. They claim these are favorable terms, but a quick search on the Internet ( https://42floors.com/us/md/bethesda/4701-sangamore-rd?listings=1311626%2C1311622 ) for FAR better places. This site shows a much more professional location, of 880 square feet (for 5 individuals), at a rate of $35 / sqft / yr, which works out to be $2,567 per month. Yet, they are paying their CEO double and triple that for little shacks.
4. On top of this, it’s my opinion (I can’t come up with any other conclusions) that Mr. Ram Mukunda was renting out his “India Globalization Capital, Inc. headquarters” to other businesses, at the same time it’s $IGC’s “headquarters”, such as to My Arbol House, Rudden Real Estate etc. on the side because $IGC is nothing more than a pump and dump that has no real business locations. The alternative would be that Lea Zepeda is in on the scam too. As written by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (for Sherlock Holmes) “when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”
5. A search on this site ( https://www.fastpeoplesearch.com/address/4336-montgomery-ave_bethesda-md-20814/page/1 ) for the 4336 address turns out a “Danny Ngai”, who is in one of the 10-Ks from years ago, as well as Lea Zepeda, and a Ronald Rudden, which is founder of Rudden Real Estate, Inc. This second site also corroborates my findings: https://homemetry.com/house/4336+MONTGOMERY+AVE,+Bethesda+MD
6. All this while Ramachandra Mukunda appears to be robbing shareholders blind.
Maybe I'm wrong, and maybe $IGC is frantically bottling CBD-infused drinks and doing massive medical pot Alzheimer's research at 4336 Montgomery Avenue in Bethesda, MD, perhaps using the kids as labor?
LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!
https://photos.app.goo.gl/qQmh6DAJuqGGXmRb6
Any idiots buying or holding this stock despite knowing it's a fraud? You must enjoy losing money? I'm just trying to understand human behavior/psychology or bagholdingness.
I mean, when the SEC halts this stock, you won't ever see your money again. Hmmm
This scam company's address and its associated companies... wow
1. Go on Google
2. Search the address: "4336 Montgomery Avenue", Bethesda, Maryland
3. Start looking at all the names of companies you find associated with this address.
4. Google Map it.
Use Google Chrome: (it will auto translate for you. You will find a bunch of companies associated with this address someone's already listed)
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=https://forum.finanzen.net/forum/Was_geht_hier_IGC_WEBSITE_UNDER_REVISION-t501466%3Fpage%3D2&prev=search
I will copy/paste here for you:
74 Postings, 3370 Tage SKUES1 : THE FIRST LIST OF COMPANIES IN 4336 MONTGOMERY AVE
Here's a first list of companies that are located 4336 Montgomery Ave Mr. Mukunda:
35 Fulford Road LLC
Real Estate? 4336 Montgomery Ave
Aftel LLC
Financial Consultant? 4336 Montgomery Ave
Arbol House
Child Care Agency? 4336 Montgomery Ave
4336 Montgomery Ave, Bethesda, MD 20814
i4 Now Solutions
Business Management Consultant? 4336 Montgomery Ave
India Globalization Capital
Mining Company? 4336 Montgomery Ave
Opens at 9:00 AM
Real Estate Rudderi
Property Management Company? 4336 Montgomery Ave
Additional company names I found:
Aftel, LLC (same one above, but I found this website)
https://www.recycleinme.com/rim-aaronholland/home
Maloney Home Solutions
https://www.yelp.com/biz/maloney-home-solutions-bethesda
https://virginiadb.com/company/F1794819/maloney-home-solutions-inc.html
Rudden Real Estate. Interestingly this one has a 4/6/2018 review!
https://www.yelp.com/biz/rudden-real-estate-bethesda
Sattrans USA LLC
https://www.superpages.com/bp/bethesda-md/sattrans-usa-llc-L2103097909.htm
In fact, if you go to this website (below), you will find, at the very bottom, it says:
By mail:
Sattrans USA, LLC
4336 Montgomery Ave. Ste A
Bethesda, Maryland 20814
United States
http://www.sattransusa.com/aboutsattrans.html
Interestingly, the parent company appears to be "iridium", with a "location" being in the USA, at 4334 address??? Notice iridium's website shows the address as 4334 but on sattranusa, it shows 4336. Hmmm very odd.
https://www.iridium.com/company/sattrans-usa-llc/
In a letter from OSHA to a "Mr Stanley Gitelson" (from 1996 so it's old)
https://www.osha.gov/laws-regs/standardinterpretations/1996-08-09
Here, we find "Mr. Stanley Gitelson". You like his picture?
https://www.linkedin.com/in/stanleygitelson
How many companies have used this address?
I just saw Ted Farnsworth's rambling video.
https://www.thewrap.com/moviepass-owner-rules-out-bankruptcy-68-million-new-funding-atom-tickets/
https://photos.app.goo.gl/knwgMQtPbDNdtPpr7
Sorry, let me rephrase. They MASSIVELY robbed shareholders blind the past few months in preparation for breaching their own contracts of unlimited movies for annual subs. They stole almost $50 million worth (per my calculations which I've posted in various forums) in preparation. To their surprise, some people did not cancel because they only had a few months left and I suspect the bulk of the cancelling will come after their annual plans expire in a few months. This allowed HMNY to have a little cash in the bank. However, the dilution from the 636 million shares last they reported on August 14th has been diluted by 719 million shares since, to 1.36 billion shares as of September 14th.
The COMBINED money they stole from shareholders since the reverse split, up until now is the $65 million Ted Farnsworth is lying about, again.
No doubt, a significant amount has already been used up to pay for the films he's "producing" as well as other money-wasting schemes. He's like a kid who's never seen money before. Squander it all.
Part of the reason they need to continuously dilute once the stock price goes too low is to ensure they meet minimum Nasdaq listing requirements, which includes a MINIMUM number of shares, as well as price etc.
They know .01 x 500 (reverse split) = $5. They know this will sell off fast as they dilute and as people panic sell.
So their options?
1. Pump the stock up, which someone with $5 million can do easily. 0.05 x 500 = $25.
2. Dilute like crazy (i.e. 1.36+ billion shares or more) and increase the R/S from 1 for 500 to 1 for 1,000. 1.36 billion / 1,000 = 1.36 million shares, which is within Nasdaq listing requirements.
My point?
I wouldn't be surprised if these crooks pump up the stock price the day right before the reverse split, or they release a SEC filing changing the terms of the R/S from 1 for 500 to 1 for 1,000 or 1 for 1,500 something, if they plan on diluting the eyeballs out of share holders from now until the meeting to say 2 billion shares.
2 billion shares / 1,500 = 1.33 million shares, again, within Nasdaq listing requirements. If they pump the price up right before the R/S, as well as dilute the eyeballs out of shareholders, 5 cents x 1,500 = $75, which might give them the 10 days they need to remain listed. They'd have robbed enough from bagholders that they wouldn't need to immediately dilute after the next R/S, unlike the last time when they were dead out of money (again, which I calculated and predicted a month before). These crooks are not that dumb (sort of).
They can't sell below PAR value of 1 penny, so they have to pump it up in order to dump more if they want the R/S number to be huge to guarantee a high share price. Obviously they know delisting is bad since they can't milk shareholders as easily in the OTC.
Have you read the SEC filings yet?
Name me ONE TIME Ted Farnsworth was truthful and not spinning his words around, lying about something and meaning something else completely different. I'm waiting.
It's great that anyone who bought low recently are up in profit. But remember, the profit is only profit if you sell. If you get greedy and try to hold on, you will be taught a serious lesson, something generation after generation of longs learned the hard way, something Ted Farnsworth so willing did: Slaughter the longs
You got lucky with the timing because these crooks need to pump themselves out from holding the bag to ensure they can vote 100% guaranteed reverse split come later this month. Count your blessings and get out while you can. Nothing wrong with trading, but if you baghold and watch a huge profit turn into a huge loss, you've got no one to blame but yourself.
One person was saying:
"Remember stocks Are like Slot Machines, you win Only if you don’t get scared and sell off all your shares."
My response:
"You must be new to gambling and con artists like Ted Farnsworth? You only win when when you cash out. The longer you play slot machines or gamble, the higher the chance of you losing it all. The house is using statistical numbers against you. You might win a game or two, here and there. But,they will win, given time, absolutely and without fail. It's no different with HMNY."
I hope you guys know the $65 million is just the ATM dilution from last month. Ted's always been a liar and won't change.
They diluted over 719+ MILLION shares between middle of August and Sept, with Sept 14th being at 1.36 BILLION shares outstanding, at a time when they claimed they were break even. Imagine how many shares they have now?
The only reason they're choosing to do the R/S now is because they cannot legally sell shares under PAR VALUE, which is 0.01 (i.e. 1 penny). They have to either pump the price up, or do a R/S to get the price up in order to dilute.
They manipulated the stock price so they could be voters as of date just like before and then pumped themselves up.
This is the last pump before the major dump after the R/S (which is guaranteed to happen). Any notion that shareholders have a choice in the vote is an illusion. Ted and Hudson Bay made sure of that when they handed Hudson Bay preferred shares to vote 3,205x voting power.
The reason they waited this long to pump themselves out from bagholding was because they needed the share price as low as possible to use for example $5 million (which is not a lot when you're manipulating) x 2.5 cents on average for 200 million shares. That, and a reporter called Mitch Lowe out on manipulating the voting last time, which he then played off and said he wasn't a board member so the reporter would need to get Ted in and ask Ted. lol
I'm surprised these crooks are not in jail yet. And the forced auto renewal emails recently? That's some messed up shizit.
After the guaranteed R/S, there'll be "new funding".
Blocked :) Enjoy! Is that why I have more followers than you do vs your ratio of non-sense posts?
GSK's fish oil sucks. Look it up. 3% vs 25%
Secondary doesn't matter. What matters is the pipeline. This is a world game changer. Every cardiologist I know and read about is saying they're waiting for November 10th data.
How Vascepa works
I see a lot of questions on statins and fish oil comparisons etc. I'll attempt to explain a (somewhat) high level overview of what I understand. You have the following fatty components in your body, which allows normal bodily functions, cell growth, energy production etc.:
1. Cholesterol (makes up cell members, nerve cells, brain cells, used to make vitamin D etc.)
2. Triglycerides (they are inside fat cells, and can be broken down to provide energy... made in your liver and intestine from smaller fatty acids).
We know from childhood that oil/fat and water do not mix. This is due to the nature of water molecules (specifically the oxygen atom, and how the two hydrogen atoms bond with it) being polar (slightly curved with a positive/minus side). This polar water molecule allows it to be a powerful solvent, in order to dissolve other molecules/atoms, such as salt (Na+ / CL-). Without this property of water, life could not exist as we know it. Oils and fats, on the other hand, have strong covalent bonds (basically very strong bonds where electrons between two atoms (carbon and hydrogen) are shared equally, which is a direct result of the nature of the carbon atom - which is why it's able to form extremely strong carbon nanotubes, diamond etc., completely opposite of the oxygen atom). This makes oils and fats non-polar. As a result, water and oil/fat do not mix.
So then, how does cholesterol and triglycerides travel in the body if blood (and 80% of your body mass) is made mostly of water? This is where lipoproteins come in. Lipoproteins have polar sides and a non-polar sides, allowing them to interact with water molecules and with fats/oils at the same time. They are the bridge between water and fats. You have the following. There's more, but we'll stick to just two:
-Low density lipoproteins (LDL)
-High density lipoproteins (HDL)
-The type of cholesterol that is transported by LDL is considered LDL-C, or bad cholesterol.
-The type of cholesterol that is transported by HDL is considered HDL-C, or good cholesterol.
-You then also have triglycerides, which are contained in fat cells.
Both triglycerides and LDL-C contribute (when there's too much of them) to bad health, to major cardiovascular events (i.e. strokes, heart attacks etc.)
Statins like Lipitor, Crestor etc. are effective at lowering LDL-C by basically lowering the production of LDL-C, which lowers heart attack and stroke events by about 25%. They are cheaper now due to generics. Lipitor was purchased (via a hostile takeover) by Pfizer from another company for $90.2 billion back in the late 90s for the entire company. But, Pfizer's target was Lipitor. It's made Pfizer $150+ billion dollars as of 2017, holds the world record for the highest sales of any drug, and at its height, made a quarter of Pfizer's revenue, or as much as almost $13 BILLION dollars per year in the mid 2000s. This is why I (and many experts) believe Pfizer is a great candidate for buying out AMRN.
Anyways, statins aren't perfect so you still have tens of millions of people prescribed statins who still have very high triglyceride levels and who's LDL-C are not lowered enough by statins alone, meaning at risk for strokes, heart attacks etc. In comes expensive drugs like PCSK9 inhibitors (Repatha or Praluent - which inhibits the PCSK9 protein). PCSK9 proteins regulate the receptors on your liver that clears out LDL-C, meaning too much PCSK9 proteins causes these receptors on the liver to be destroyed/recycled, thus NOT removing LDL-C and your bad cholesterol increases. PCSK9 inhibitors thereby stops the protein from doing it's job, thereby allowing receptors on the liver to exist longer and ultimately clear out LDL-C from your bloodstream.
The only problem? Triglycerides are still high in a lot of people despite taking all these meds, and as such cardiovascular events still happen. PCSK9 inhibitors can lower risks by another 15%. But they are expensive ($14K+ a year) so some insurance will try to deny coverage.
In comes Vascepa to the rescue. Vascepa is not fish oil. It is derived from fish, and removes the DHA component in fish oil, which is known to increase LDL-C. Therefore, Vascepa is a pure form of Omega 3 fatty acids that REDUCE triglycerides while at the same time do NOT increase LDL-C (unlike fish oil you buy from Costco, which WILL increase LDL-C). To put it into perspective, you'd probably need to take an entire bottle of fish oil to get the same therapeutic results as Vascepa, but then you'd have very high LDL-C, defeating the purpose! That is why studies with fish oil has never shown any clinical proof of helping reduce major cardiovascular events! That plus you're probably consuming a lot of mercury by taking a lot of "bad" fish oil.
In patients where statins already lower LDL-C but still have high triglycerides, Vascepa lowers high triglycerides dramatically, thereby cumulatively allowing statins to reduce major cardiovascular events by 25% (by lowering LDL-C) and then lowering these major events by another 25% due to Vascepa (not fish oil) lowering triglycerides.
Total effect is major cardiovascular events are lowered by about:
50% by using a statin and Vascepa in combination, as compared to
25% by using statins alone, or as compared to
40% by using statins with PCSK9 inhibitors
Vascepa's winning attributes are: Low cost of $2,400 per year (but enough to make mad money for Pfizer or Amarin), literally no/low side effects of joint pains, and most effective product at reducing major cardiovascular events, when used in combination with statins.
This assumes Ted cares about shareholders. Sadly, he does not. He only started "looking like he cares" because he's looking for his own self-interest. He's a selfish bastard. As such, we probably won't be seeing this.
There's a lot of resistance from trapped longs. It won't just get to 50 cents and stay there. It'll take time.
The BEST thing the company can do right now is get a friggen loan (not like they can though with Ted's shady past), and buy back their shares while it's cheap and decrease that outstanding share back into the double digit millions. This will instill investor confidence.
For example, if they were smart and slowly bought shares back, at 2.5 cents average, 600 million shares would only cost $15 million. If Ted wasn't so shady, it would be easy for someone to loan him the money to do this, which would then shoot up the stock price big time.
Busy playing other things in the mean time :) Good though. Just trading HMNY right now. Mostly getting in low 2 pennies and getting out at 3 pennies lol. Keep repeating to compound winnings.
Operating loss is around $22 million. With less subscribers, that may fall down below $20 million.
However, the 0.9 ratio Ted quoted I don't believe is honest. He was including "the last month", which included "forced no usage" because the app was literally down during peak times. It wasn't until later in the month that they actually got their act together and enabled show times consistently. So I think the "real" ratio is much higher, at around 1.2 or higher.
They won't break even (including operating cost) unless they are at 0.55 or so. That won't happen, so at the minimum they would still be losing $25-$30 million per quarter (as opposed to $130+) before, which is obviously much better. But the problem is the low share price means dilution is massive, which is a positive feedback loop (in a negative way) and causes even more stock price tankage.
The only option they have is: truly limit cash burn and wait for investor confidence to bring up the stock price so they have to dilute less, which then is a positive feedback loop (in a positive way).
The Canaccord dumpage has two limiting factors:
1. Up to the $150 total million, which last I checked, they only had about $60+ million left to dump. I'd have to recalculate to see how much more they have left, but we'd need an updated outstanding share out.
2. Up to the 5 billion authorized but unissued shares (minus any needed to be reserved).
If they get close to the $150 million shares, I would expect another 424b SEC filing along with an 8K confirming another ATM dilution.
The only thing that's slowed down the dilution is they've reduced cash burn drastically, AND they've diluted a ton (possibly $40+ million in the bank) to prepare for refunds/cancellations, hence less dilution. However, they are still red, so eventually, they will need to dilute. It's possible they are keeping dilution at a minimum by only diluting over 3 cents, for example.
Ted Fraudsworth isn't dumb. He knows that in order to dilute and effect a proper reverse split, both the share count and the share price has to be at a specific point where doing a reverse split would be able to put the share price high enough where it wouldn't take below $1 in 10 trading days or less AND that they would still be over 1.25 million publicly traded shares, which is the Nasdaq requirement. Accordingly, he can't just keep diluting no matter the stock price. He has to get the stock price up, or he has to dilute billions and billions of shares in order and hope the stock price doesn't tank TOO low in order to successfully effect a reverse split to remain on the Nasdaq. The alternative is OTC.
Chart analysis = bullish in the near term, assuming Canaccord isn't the one dumping around 3 pennies.
Solid red line = uptrend support line
Yellow highlights = prior support (now resistance) lines
It should keep testing 3 pennies, assuming HMNY has close to $40+ million in the bank and doesn't need to keep dumping on longs. That is the unknown... In other words, keep buying in the low and sub 2 pennies and selling around 3 pennies until all sellers are gone. Once sellers at 3 pennies are gone, the PPS should shoot up, assuming the seller at 3 pennies isn't Canaccord.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/SH5G5e46VdKZKKHz9
1. The more I thought about this, the more I believe Ted and Mitch are pulling a fast one on shareholders. I think the MP subs they quoted, they spun the numbers around to make it sound good. Ted never once mentioned monthly subs cancellation rates. He just mentioned annual plan subs. I suspect annual plan subs who are heavy users are cancelling but those who are aren't, or even those who would normally cancel, are not cancelling only because they have 3-5 months left and they don't mind paying $6.95-$8.95 per month for the remainder of their terms. I suspect a significant number of these will cancel once their plan turns into monthly $9.95 fees. We may see close to 2 million subs by end of year, or early 2019.
2. Also, we know the shenanigans they pulled by automatically re-enrolling subs against their own will, obviously illegal. I bet they were counting these cancelled subs.
3. The subs who cancelled a month ago, who are still "active" before the billing cycle ends, I bet they also counted.
4. I suspect MP sub counts are below 2.5 million. The question is, when will they give an update?
5. More importantly, I re-ran the numbers to include OPERATING EXPENSE, which is roughly $22 million per quarter, or about $7 million per month. This figure theoretically should lower as their MP sub count lowers. However, I'll account this figure in my next calculations.
6. The 0.9 ratio that Ted claimed (which we all know included the "forced and fake" outages during the past month, is an artificial number that is not realistic of future predictions. If I offered an all you can eat buffet place and charged everyone $50 a month subscription, and then didn't pay my electricity bill, or intentionally sabotaged the electrical wiring so that I couldn't open the place up half the time, I could claim I'm making a ton of money and few people actually eat at an all you can eat buffet. How dumb is that? That's exactly what HMNY was doing.
7. So in these calculations, I used a ratio of 0.55. This means the average MP sub would need to go to the movies only ONCE every TWO MONTHS for MP to truly break even, taking into account OPERATING EXPENSE (which Ted does not quote or take into account when he uses his "monthly cash deficit" number). This gives about $5 million MONTHLY CASH SURPLUS per month. For the entire quarter, this is about $15 million MONTHLY CASH SURPLUS. This basically cancels out the $15-20 million OPERATING EXPENSE. This is also accounting of course for the $1 million or so ad revenue they currently get.
As you can see, even at an artificial 0.9 ratio Ted claimed, that means they would still be losing $15-$20 million a quarter instead of the the $130+ million, which is much better than before, sure), however, does NOT prevent continued massive dilution due to the extremely low share price. At 2 cents PPS and $20 million loss per quarter, they would still need to dilute ONE BILLION SHARES per quarter to survive.
And this doesn't take into account Emmett/Oasis' money-wasting scheme.
There's no version of this where shareholders come out on top. Another reverse split is coming, or it's OTC penny world. You all have been warned (as I've warned for the past half year when this thing was still trading in the $500+ post-split accounted for range).
https://photos.app.goo.gl/Lr2A7RmuBNhUZnYd9
Analysis on TRXC vs ISRG: Overvalued
Click the link to see the full image. Enjoy!
https://photos.app.goo.gl/xiwXBPT4ewvPFkwt6
Lots of pain tomorrow and days to come. Here's my chart analysis days ago. Support is in the low $8s. After that drops, it's down to low $6s.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/sisB2Xx9LUczoexm9
I know most people don't do their due diligence or read SEC filings, so I have done it for you. Let's compare $FATE to $AFMD
Pipelines are similar, in pre-clinical and phase 1:
$AFMD's pipeline: http://www.affimed.com/products.php
$FATE's pipeline: http://fatetherapeutics.com/pipeline/
$FATE's market cap: $664.53 million
$AFMD's market cap: 383.7 million
$FATE's cash on hand: $78.02 million
$AFMD's cash on hand: $55.23 million
$FATE's debt: $14.85 million
$AFMD's debt: $6.93 million
$FATE's last 10-Q states they think they'll have sufficient cash for next 12 months.
$AFMD's last 6-K quarterly report states they'll have sufficient cast through Q4, 2019 (the $96 million spread over a year, will most likely extend that duration out)
If $AFMD were to trade at $664 million market cap, that works out to be: $664.53 / 62.39 million shares = $10.65. However, the fact that Genentech is willing to foot most of the bill for the R&D costs AND they are receiving the $96 million over the period of a year, this should bring up the value significantly.
I compared $FATE to $AFMD. $FATE currently trades at double value w/ similar pipeline. $AFMD should be trading double $ digits. This is by far the best read. Even Zack's is wrong on the closing date. They quoted 3rd quarter 2019. It's 2018. I wrote them to let them know they made a typo. So as I and others have already noted, the $96 million + $5 billion is just part of it. Affirmed will also get additional $$ from net sales royalties.
The ABSOLUTE best part is: Genentech is willing to foot most of the R&D expense. That means less dilution & more money reimbursed. Plus since they are projected to last through 2019 with their current cash BEFORE the deal, the CEO expects the $24 million per month (which is close to what they burn per year) to extend that out much further. My guess is possibly another full year, possibly two into 2020-2021, even with ramped up R&D.
http://www.bioworld.com/content/96m-committed-affimed-shares-surge-150-potential-51b-genentech-deal-0
Financial Terms Broken Down
From the SEC filing:
1. "The financial terms of the Agreement include upfront payments and committed funding over the first 12 months of the collaboration of $96 million"
The company, as is, without this partnership, is projected to have funds to last through Q4 of 2019 (over a year from now). With the $96 million, this will ensure even with increased R&D, they'll have less of a risk for an offering
2. "and up to approximately $5.0 billion in total milestone payments upon successful development and commercialization of all product candidates developed pursuant to the Agreement. Of the $5.0 billion in milestone payments, approximately $250 million relate to development activities, $1.1 billion relate to receipt of regulatory approvals, and $3.6 billion relate to achievement of specified thresholds of worldwide net sales."
This means the $5 billion includes milestones (i.e. think of this as kickbacks, rebates, reimbursements etc.) if various targets are reached.
3. "In addition, Affimed is eligible to receive tiered royalties from Genentech on net sales of licensed product candidates on a product-by-product and country-by-country basis until the later of the date when there are no valid patent claims under Affimed’s licensed patents covering such licensed product in the applicable country and the tenth anniversary of the date of first commercial sale of such licensed product in such country."
This means on top of the $96 million and $5 billion, the company will also receive tiered royalty based on region/country. Typical royalty are in the high single to high double digit figures. If for example in the U.S., net sales are $1 billion, at 15%, that equates to $150 million a year on the royalties alone.
4. "Under the terms of the Agreement, Genentech will be responsible for a majority of the research, development and commercialization costs incurred in respect of each product candidate. The development of each product candidate will be overseen by a joint project team, which will in turn be overseen by a joint research committee, or JRC, consisting of an equal number of representatives of Genentech and Affimed. If the JRC is unable to reach agreement, Genentech generally has final decision-making authority, provided that the JRC may not increase or decrease costs dedicated to Affimed’s research activities under any research plan without Affimed’s consent."
In other words, Genentech is footing the majority of the bill. This is critical. RARELY do I see a large pharma company do this for a biotech company. Generally you see where they will do everything mentioned here but expect the biotech company to foot the bill for development. Phase 3 for example is very costly and can run $300 million+ to a billion+. It sounds like Genentech is willing to foot the majority of expenses, meaning they must see something very promising in Affirmed's pipeline.
HMNY chart breakdown. For haters and pumpers, no, I do not "bash" the stock. I merely give logical analysis where there's a lot of comical non-sense. I do, however, bash Ted Farnsworth because he's a flipn' liar. Mitch is beginning to be just as bad. That aside, since milking enough shareholders to prepare for a mass exodus of annual MP subscribers who will cancel (i.e. building up the $26 million that's possibly grown to over $50 million by now) Canaccord stopped the dumping for a few days, as evident in the yellow highlighted area. That's because HMNY told them to stop. They then started the selling again later last week (as if on queue, on Thursdays and Fridays). However, with the news of forced annual MP subs being allowed only 3 movies, this surely will accomplish their goal (which I've been preaching for ages now) that they're trying to get rid of heavy users. This is a positive. However, the consequence is they may scare off a significant number of casual users who simply stayed because of the cheaper annual package, and was merely dealing with the restrictive usage. We won't know until MP reports their next sub count. The REAL question is: How many heavy/moderate users will actually leave vs how many light casual users will stay? THAT is the most single important question that'll determine the fate of MoviePass. Nothing else is as critical. If you've been following my calculations, that ratio of 1.7 (from May) needs to drop to near 1 or preferably below it. If this goes up, it does NOT matter the number of subs they have, as their expenses will always outweigh their revenue.
Imagine bozo the clown who makes $8 minimum wage flipping burgers who borrows from friends, family and strangers alike and stands at the corner giving away $100 dollar bills. It's just a matter of time before bozo the clown makes a ton of enemies. It's no different with HMNY and MoviePass. Their options are either to get a better job (which isn't happening), or stop giving away $100 dollar bills and start giving away $1 dollar bills.
Having said that, the resistance is the yellow area. That's why when I did my trade this morning for a nice 30%+ profit, I set my market sell order at 3 cents. Even when it went above 3 cents, I didn't care, because as someone who believes in charts, I KNEW (I didn't guess, I KNEW) selling would start around there. I didn't FOMO (fear of missing out) and kept holding. I did, however, re-bought back around 2 pennies when I saw the chart slightly moving back up, for a quick trade, which has netted me about 15% going into AH. Technically, the trend is still up (short term) as it bounced right off the uptrend line. I expect some sort of green tomorrow. Whether it lasts or not, depends on if Canaccord dumps or not. Without Canaccord dumping, there's enough lemming buyers who'll push the price up. And since Robin Hood has been banned (or limited anyways), that leaves buyers from traditional brokers who are doing the buying, so we can't blame Millennials alone lol.
But, knowing Ted Farnsworth, unless he quits, or gets fired (which will NOT happen), or gets hit by a bus and become incapacitated, HMNY's trend will generally keep moving downward as a function of time. The limit of this calculus equation, is zero. So, remember to only trade and don't baghold. Learning to read charts is one of the most important things you can do.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/F8Jj6hKKU9mRxWvM6
I did some thinking. What if the MoviePass sub count they touted over 3 million included those who already cancelled but were still active until their billing cycle ran out?
And did they include the cancelled subs with the shenanigans they pulled by forcing these cancelled subs to auto re-enroll without the former subs' consent?
I think they will be down to 2.5 million subs by end of month and under 2 million before the new year. I say that because some of the annual plans end in November and the Costco ones will start ending in middle December.
Some subs will no doubt keep the annual package "staying and praying" MP changes their terms again, and willing to pay the remaining annual fees. Stay and Pray bagholding mentality applies to many other things besides stocks too.
The best part about MovieBlock is this: Imagine all your friends and family, especially during the upcoming holidays are planning on going out to hit up some big blockbuster movie. You are a MovieBlock subscriber. You either have to pay out of pocket to see it, or you can't go and have to wait weeks (if you even ever get the chance) to see the movie. If you continue to pay for this limited service when Sinemia allows you to see movies for MUCH CHEAPER, any time, then you are either a complete clown or you're just not very bright. But then again, that's how you have abusive relationships. You need both an abuser and an abused. You can't have an abusive relationship if there's no one willing to be abused. Same goes for the shareholders who got wiped out, generation after generation after generation after generation after generation.
Ted does not care about shareholders. Let's be clear about that. No delusions.
Chart analysis for HEAR. Friday volume was 1,313,580 vs 1.9 million average volume. This just means there were a LACK of buyers than average, not necessarily that there are MORE sellers than above average. In other words, peeps who can read charts and bought in just for the earnings are selling out. There should be a run-up to the November earnings, but that may not happen until October, unless good news comes out. The S-3 form is weighing down on the stock, I'm sure.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/AdXjs49fvfq1dKiR9
Also, a classic head and shoulders is forming. When the neckline (around $25) falls, it's down from there. Of course news beats everything else so if there's some really good news, it'll shoot back up.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/HH2qa549cME5c7Cv5
I would stay very far from this stock right now from it's almost 200% appreciation from under $2. I finally had some time to research this company. It went through so many name changes it's not even funny. That's a huge red flag. Their May, 2017 10-Q shows them as WEBCAST NETWORK. In fact, when you search them on the SEC's website, the first thing that the SEC website displays is the list of all their former name changes.
Their massive revenue growth this year was from oil trading, and not from their core business. That's a bad thing. Yahoo had a huge investment in Alibaba and did very well, yet they still went down the drain. However, SSC's Cost of Revenue grew about just as much as their revenue, basically netting zero, and has actually caused a MUCH greater net loss. In fact, their Selling, general and administrative expense shot up big time, mainly from "employee compensation", resulting in a HIGHER net loss.
Below I compare the two prior 10-Q quarterly report revenue numbers. This confirms the company did much better last year. This year, they appear to be inflating their revenue numbers, but costs are so much that after they paid their employees more, their net loss is huge compared to last year's.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/snpUerKqoVNxP6Wz9
Their new PR shows billions of dollars, but they will only receive a small fraction of this as it doesn't equate directly to revenue. They're simply going to be responsible for funding the project. Their CFO states they anticipate they'll receive $480 million from the $24 billion project, which equates to 2%. If we divide by 4 quarters x 3 years, that's $40 million on average per quarter they anticipate to receive. This doesn't take into account Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which will reduce this figure most likely significantly.
Their 10-Q states:
1. "Revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2018 was $185.9 million as compared to $33.2 million for the same period in 2017, an increase of approximately $152.8 million, or 461%. The increase was mainly due to our expanding business of crude oil trading initiated in October 2017."
2. "Selling, general and administrative expense for the three months ended June 30, 2018 was $8.8 million as compared to $3.0 million for the same period in 2017, an increase of approximately $5.8 million or 194%.
The majority of the increase was due to 1) an increase in headcounts and relevant traveling expense in the amount of $1.2 million; 2) an increase of approximately $3.4 million in share based compensation that were paid to our employees;"
SEC's website shows their name changes below. This is generally a bad thing because it tells you their business model isn't working and they're continually having to change. We see the same with HMNY when it changed it's name repeatedly in the past. It's also bad when they change their ticker symbols (thus ensuring new shareholders don't know about their past).
Seven Stars Cloud Group, Inc. CIK#: 0000837852 (see all company filings)
SIC: 4841 - CABLE & OTHER PAY TELEVISION SERVICES
State location: NY | State of Inc.: NV | Fiscal Year End: 1231
formerly: ALPHA NUTRACEUTICALS INC (filings through 2006-09-21)
formerly: ALPHA NUTRA INC (filings through 2007-05-09)
formerly: CHINA BROADBAND INC (filings through 2011-02-07)
formerly: GALLERY RODEO INTERNATIONAL (filings through 1997-05-14)
formerly: SIERRA ROCKIES CORP (filings through 1998-06-03)
formerly: WECAST NETWORK, INC. (filings through 2017-07-07)
formerly: YOU ON DEMAND HOLDINGS, INC. (filings through 2016-10-18)
(Assistant Director Office: 11)
Get insider transactions for this issuer.
Even Connecticut Republican Senator Pro Tempore Len Fasano questioned this company:
http://www.journalinquirer.com/politics_and_government/cloud-deal-questioned/article_e4b19b50-86b7-11e8-bab0-f3a7928d3e25.html
We see from the charts that a lot of shareholders got trapped during the Bitcoin hypes less than a year ago. This means as the share price goes up to the high $5s, there will be a lot of bagholders literally unloading on buyers. This is what's called resistance. The question is: who's going to be the next bagholder, and for how long must they wait to unload on the next round of buyers? If you go back further in the chart, you will see the same behavior of a huge pop followed by the stock ending much lower than it started. In fact, the charts show a reverse split was effected in the past.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/hsf4SqENx2yYATBY7
Finally, their S-1A released on Friday (amending the one from April) is an intent for large insider shareholders to sell their shares. It's not the same as an S-3 or private offering, but that's still another reg flag when insiders want to sell that many shares.
If heavy users are NOT inclined to cancel, you do realize that pushes the ratio from 1.7 to a much higher number??? Did you even consider what the ramifications of what you said before you said it?
And you assume subs enjoy being MovieBlocked, shown only 2-3 movies a night or few days AND restrict the viewing times AND restrict movies that are showing in 1,000+ screens so their friends and family can go watch new great movies while they wait weeks.
It sounds to me like you're not thinking realistically lately.
You are delusional to think they still have 3 million subs.
Agreed. Ted knew from the beginning he would milk shareholders dry in order to make MoviePass succeed. That's called misleading shareholders.
They kept the lies up, one after another, until shareholders finally saw what they were really doing. Well, some saw it already and tried to warn the others. The majority didn't want to believe.
The other mistake they made was instead of letting the stock price appreciate and only scalping enough and letting the stock price continue to rise, Ted let AMC get to him so they started pushing for MP subs to fight a war with AMC, at the expense of shareholders of course. So then they just kept milking shareholders. It became a self-sustaining positive feedback loop where each annual sub they acquired at cheap amounts, simply became a financial nightmare months down the road. Ponzi Scheme is another word for this.
If they had just let the growth rate go slower, at $9.95 without any discounts, and limited abuse, the stock price would have appreciated more, and they could have sold LESS shares for MORE money. These clowns can't seem to think logically.
Possible, or to pay for legal fees from all the lawsuits. Either way, lots of dilution to come.
Only because of the green market day. If not for that, we'd see $25-26. More selling to come. Most of the volume were from day traders. I estimate maybe only 10 million shares unloaded. Probably another 90 more million for the next 9 trading days.
It all makes sense now. If you guys recall my calculations before it where it showed $26 million in the bank as of August 9th, and then about $36 million on August 15th, or roughly $10 million SURPLUS per week. I couldn't understand why they were diluting the []= out of shareholders even when they weren't using that much money anymore, and I said they must have some hidden cost they're not telling us about. Well, if we add the number of days up since then, it's been about 9 days afterwards, which puts their cash in the bank at roughly just shy of $50 million ($14 milion for a week and a half-ish) as of August 24th.
That's significant because I went back to look at the dates they offered annual packages, and the subscriber counts they had at various points in time. I work out about 800K subs for Costco, about 600K subs for the $6.95 promo (they did it last November & again in March), and about 150K subs for the $7.95 promo.
I then took the number of months remaining. That basically works out to about $54 million they would owe if all annual subs cancelled. Now since some Costco members already cancelled, this number is probably a few million dollars less.
So now we know. They milked the []= out of shareholders the 629+ million shares (about 1 billion by now) so they could build up cash to about $50 million, and then pay off all annual pass members. Obviously, most people won't be happy, so they will cancel.
Assuming most cancel, that'll be close to 1.4 million annual subs that cancel (not including Costco subs that already cancelled). Right now they're down to probably 2.8/2.9 million subs with the abusive MovieBlocking they've been doing. That means they're down to about 1.4/1.5 million subs after the cancellation. the 1 million subs who converted enjoys being MovieBlocked so they will stay. That leaves about 400-500K that are month to month subs who'll probably just cancel.
To check my math, my numbers worked out to be about 1.45 million subs that are month to month (3 million - 800K-150K-600K). MoviePass claims about 1 million converted (how many were "forced" is unknown at this point) to the new plan. That leaves about 450 million month to month who'll probably just cancel.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: They'll be down to 1 million subs, who probably do 2-4 movies a month (subsidized on the 4th+ one), who will increase the usage ratio per person from 1.7 to about 2.5. Those who cancel and are heavy users will hit up AMC if they have AMC. Those who use 0-2 times a month will hit up Sinemia. This is bad for MoviePass because only the "semi heavy users" will stay with them.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: maybe 500K subs from various groups stay, meaning MovieBlock is left with 1.5 million subscribers.
If you recall from my scenario (screenshot below, click the link to see) before where the average usage is 2.5, even with only just 2 million subs, they are still losing 40 million per month BEFORE operating expenses. With operating expenses of about $7 per month, that's about $47 million. So, the point is with Sinemia stealing all the light users, MoviePass goes right back to losing money and robbing shareholders blind.
Even if they are only down to 1 to 1.5 million subscribers, that's still $23-35 million loss per month after operating expenses.
The point is: They messed around so much that they lost a lot of subs AND competition from Sinemia will take away the light users, exactly what they don't want. Prepare to lose more money guys. Bankruptcy in a few months. Yeah, I was wrong to compare this to $DCTH. This is worse. In fact, this is the WORST STOCK EVER. If you lived through the -50% average tankage for a week after already tanking -99.6%, OH. MY. GOD. I've never seen anything like that.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/CvetLqGvcVoZLWnCA