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Indeed an item to watch.
For those not aware of the connection, karXT is a muscarinic modulator targeted toward schizophrenia and Alzheimer's agitation, while, Anavex's 3-71 is also targeted toward schizophrenia and is a S1R and muscarinic modulator. Muscarinic sites appear to be valid targets but thus far muscarinic modulators seem prone to side effects. karXT is a combo drug to mitigate side effects and 3-71 is a whole new compound.
Agreed, in my experience it takes a savvy blend of TA and expecting "fundamental" news that has allowed me outsized returns.
Nice, you may have nailed the recent low!
I'm long Jan $5 Calls for a wee bit of leverage.
At the individual stock level I feel $6 is an important level that can be met with the broader market alone, but I think $AVXL needs a news event for any decent substantial holdable upside move, and that could come in the form of news from a PR and provide the volume needed for a positive technical move.
On the broader front, the 1/2 point USA FED cut should keep the money flowing and buoy jobs. Jobs = money moving = good economy = good equity markets at ALL market caps and dividends.
I'm watching $RUT, $XBI, $IBB, and $IBBQ for signs I'm right or wrong. But damn!!! These indexes are at or near triple and quadruple tops!?! Definitely keeping it interesting.
Chaiken moneyflow was one of the first indicators I started using with success 30 years ago and it's still one I watch today.
Keeping a segregated biotech only portfolio is what I used to do too. I'd look at 10 new ideas for the year and then make 10 investments with generally similar amounts. Then as each hit a fail point in their story as 90% do, I'd sell, take the tax lost, and reinvest the balance into one or 2 the remaining I thought had the strongest story in that moment in time. In one of my old risk accounts from 2015 $AVXL is the sole survivor.
On the biology front, my indication to support is Lewy Body Dementia and only within the last year has my indication been put solidly on the radar if one follows new NDS-ISS guidance. Also new for this year especially for PD is the the Alpha-Synuclein Amplification Assay to validate the process and improve patient selection for trials.
https://www.lbda.org/advancing-the-science-new-research-frameworks-proposed-for-the-biology-of-dementia-with-lewy-bodies-and-or-parkinsons-disease/
Whenever it comes to predicting to the right side of the chart is where confirmation bias can rear its ugly head. I do try to disclose my bias and timeframes with my opinions.
I can't predict markets, but I do enjoy trying.
Here is a hack job chart with fat fingers, but good enough for this post and my first best attempt at posting an image file. I'm working off my phone on vacation, but you can see the pennant...not pendant as talk to text has been posting. Lol
Also I am adjusting to the ThinkorSwim products at Schwab as they retire the street smart products. On my laptop with the opposite aspect ratio the slope of the pole is not as steep in landscape.
https://images.app.goo.gl/W71xQNwj8n5ZyDqt5
https://images.app.goo.gl/kQmBPvB2LPMcz8ts5
Remember the cartoons where the character has an angel on one shoulder and a devil on the other? That's how I feel whenever I apply T/A 🤪
But in spite of the debate on it's usefulness, I have found improved trading success with basic horizontal support and resistance levels. But in biotech that only works as long as the fundamental "story" is valid too.
On a current valuation, the market is giving it $450-$500 million for the story this far, which is arguably fair or unfair depending on bias. With new news those biases will of course change.
As goes the retail narrative and opinion of how they think markets work. MM serve a vital role in the markets like it or not.
Have a nice weekend and holiday if you're in the USA.
First off, all MM's exist to make their own profits and everyone should understand that.
MM's can only "game" the price to within their own limits within the market system. If price gets too far in either direction other players or even other MM's will start to take the other side balancing out the forces to find price discovery.
Not every freaking penny move is part of a grand MM conspiracy.... it the point I'm trying to make.
Given my bullish bias I want to "divine" a bullish pendant, but it's a decending triangle, not a pendant on the flagpole.
We'll just have to see how it plays out.
I took "Sab's" recent opinion to be more about horizontal support zones than the breaking of a triangle:
NIce add, but on the "why" part, I'm sure your fill was fair and reasonable per the market conditions in these low volumes and you are making way too many assumptions on the order flow and its origins to claim who "pocketed" what in the trades.
or maybe it was those MM's manipulating by filling buy side Market On Close orders?!?
$AVXL volume it low for sure.
I'm short calls on various stocks and indexes from July and have some weekly's due today that are bouncing around at-the-money, otherwise I'd be doing other things this week. I used to hate the weekly options, but over the last couple years I've enjoyed playing covered calls with them to harvest off time and volatility.
There is no inbetween or middle ground for many people here.
I like trade all timeframes and biases, but being LONG $AVXL equity is the primary trade. My broader opinion justifying a long equity position in the first place, is that S1R and muscarinic modulating companies (think Karuna) have deeper value due to "the science".
Buy the bottoms and sell the tops as the story plays out.
Indeed and with "story" specific news on deck, it should bring in both investors and traders to play out their biases for the year.
More participation by retail = less influence by MM's
I expect a major theme to be the "Missling always misses" versus the maybe Anavex executes camps.
I truly think you'd enjoy learning by doing with a limited "purse" as a sandbox to learn in. Plus, like I said you're already doing part of the work using T/A. 😉
Also you can trade options offensively or defensively. Basically whatever idea you have, you can create a position that represents your thinking with direction, momentum, and time.
Tell it to your elected representative and the SEC. In the meantime I suggest you learn to trade in a HFT and MM dominated environment.
Retail has been brainwashed to think every and all market makers are evil.
I'm looking for a close over $6, but if it doesn't, I'll blame evil market maker manipulation. 😎
When traders want to trade, we need firms like Citadel to take the other side when retail is out of the game.
Love them or hate them, MM's they play a role.
Laugh 🤣 emoji cuz just it really is like reading tea leaves.
My standard disclosure is often to beware of my bull crap. Lol
Agreed, it tested and held support.
$XBI at resistance again, could be driving buy side avxl order flow, but trading is light overall.
Citadel is a market maker in equity and options, they play all sides of the market to increase liquidity and most likely are currently delta neutral versus making a directional play.
Well tell your wife it's structured gambling, as I'd tell my clients, I can't 100% predict the markets, but I can come up with good odds to speculate on and you're already doing part of the work that studying technical analysis patterns
Just like at a casino, you determine your purse and proceed for example maybe 500 shares and doing 5 contracts at a time.
When $AVXL is in a comfortable range for you to sell at, let's say $10 or higher if you have a higher cost basis, and we do a "study group" and I'll participate.
Trust me you need to keep your mind active in retirement and learn new things and options are not hard.
My strategy these days is primarily to sell volatility and short time frames of no more than 4 weeks out, and yes liquidity and premiums are in the crapper and the spreads are wide. I have a large equity position of low cost basis shares so I like goosing the total return on the position selling calls at acceptable strikes and premiums.
On $AVXL earnings day I sold $8 calls 2 weeks out as there were surprisingly some bidders, so I had to hit them for as many contracts as I could and got off 40 contracts and then they backed off. As we know $AVXL then faded and I had some sweet easy cash in my pocket.
For those folks bullish on the "story", fishing for long calls is the way to go, especially if the price drops as you mentioned.
How do you like to play your $AVXL neutral/bearish bias?
Do you sell covered calls, buy puts, or exit/reduce position? Or do nothing?
I use $NWBO and $CYDY as examples of why to categorically avoid OTC stocks. With the possible exception of vetted foreign ordinary and ADR (ADS) shares.
I limited my position size in $AVXL until the uplist.
Missling does have support, but if one only read this chat board with it's prolific negative voices, I can see how you would think that.
Given my current neutral trading bias, waiting for a bounce of support is always the safer play.
200 day zone with discretion to $5.50 is where I will watch for a bounce.
On the more fundamental side of things, my guess for both peer reviewed paper and EMA filing is end of November.
As the 13 week t-bill drifts lower the "T-bill and chill" trade is coming to and end so it's time to redeploy assets. Most will go towards dividend equity, but some will go into risk assets too like $AVXL.
When the $XBI stalled, I ruled out upside for avxl in the ultra short term, but not enough neutral to sell covered calls at current premiums for an acceptable strike.
Good luck at PT, remaining active is key to recovery.
Filing in Europe is definitely the best course of action for Anavex.
It's also handy to explain the time value of compounding and long term investing.
I've been financial advisor and fiduciary for 30 years now and it seems harder and harder to get people to save and invest.
I don't yet think the triangle has failed, but it all depends on the time frame of reference. It can get stretched out an be fine, particularly if you start at 12/27/23
So no sad face yet 😉
I concur with those levels.
Having the XBI triple topping is also keeping things interesting for a break out or a failure. I'll let you do the upside break out maths with the tools you use, but on a XBI failure, I see $97 and with that $AVXL down to that $5.50 area and a buy for science believers on a bounce.
Fair enough, as I do agree it's execution of the plans that truly matter in the long run.
My $AVXL holding is in a risk portfolio without the burden of timeframes, it just requires basic forward progress. albeit if slow.
I would have expected you to say that, however, your negative biased posts far exceed your neutral posts, and I have almost never seen a post expressing any positivity.
I was a trader of $AVXL way before I was an buy/hold and sell covered calls for income type investor, so I get it. Especially if your Denmark broker doesn't allow you to trade standardized options and trading is the only way to play the volatility.
Simply commenting on the fact a technical definition was met. What becomes of it depends on many other factors within the marketplace.