Bye, bye bitcoin. See you at 2410...!

Bitcoin today closed below 5835. It should now go toward 2400, give or take a 100 points or so.

Tomorrow''s close will be telling. Currently at 5658. A Friday close below 5835 and bitcoin in all likely hood will fall to 2410 or so.

Gold breaking 1200/Oz on a weekly basis, should then fall to 1140 or so.

Bitcoin:

Looks like Bitcoin is in a 5 wave down pattern. Breaking 5835 on a weekly close and the current wave 3 should reach my target of 2410.

Big day for gold. Close below 1257 today and we could see some panic selling next week.

Looking for a move below $1000 for an entry point. Then, would look to exit the trade between $3500-5000/oz.

The low is probably still 2-3 years out.

Euro needed to break through 1.1660 at the May close. It failed to do so. Now, Euro could rally as high as 1.2880 in the next few months, providing another great price to short.

The Euro is a flawed currency no matter how you look at it. The trend is down and may disappear as early as 2021.

Euro starting to show major cracks. Could have a waterfall event by Thursday and into next week. People are starting to wake up to the fact that the Euro is a flawed currency and that Brussles is a bunch of dictators.

Looking for the euro/dollar pair to hit between .86-.80 within 12 months. Currently around 1.1650.

Gold:

Still looking gold to break down through $1000/oz. before considering going long. Could go as low as $700/oz., but running out of time to hit that number...a lower probability than there was a year ago.

1.1875 or lower on a Euro weekly close, should get the ball rolling to the downside.

Looks like the dollar is starting to pick up steam. The $ should get stronger against all major currencies, peaking between 2024-2032.

Watch world bond prices vs US$.

DOW closed Friday at 23533. Another 1.2% down from here and we hit 23250. Hit that number and the DOW should take out the 2017 low, then reverse and start marching to a new all time high.

Let's do this now, and get it over with so we can get onto new market highs.

Still looking for about a 30% gain for the DOW in 2018.

BitCoin Update:

BitCoin bottomed around 5900. Looking for a retracement to the 12-13K area before a 5th leg down.

DOW Long Term:

Looking for a 1776% move from 11/2016 - 12/2036.

So, from the Nov. 04, 2016 low of 17,883.56, by 12-31-2036, I'm looking for DOW 335,495.59

NOT A MIS-PRINT:three hundred thirty five thousand,four hundred nintey five dollars and 59 cents.

Watching the 25,000 area as a point for a downside reversal. That would be a 50% retracement level from the 26616 high to Friday's bottom at 23360.

Critical level to watch: 23250.... break that level on a closing basis, and down we go.... to 19667, minimum.

DOW took out 23545. Touching 23250, the DOW will fall to the 19,600 area before reversing and onto new all time highs.

Do not panic. The babyboomers last great buying opp is just ahead.

Still expecting the DOW to gain around 30% this year.

Will we hit 23,545 on Friday...? Quite possibly we hit that number, or close to it, then reverse to the upside.

The markets just may be working on the greatest buying opportunity since the March 2009 bottom.

May take until the end of May to complete this correction. IMO, when this correction is over, the markets could go parabolic.

The DOW has moderate resistance between 26-28k. After that, on towards 36-42k.

Looking at the DOW daily chart, looks like a possible a-b-c correction. If that is the case, then we should bottom around 23,545

That would be a temp low, imo. The Dow may go to 21,000 or even into the 19Ks before reversing and then off to new all time highs.

Want to add, I'm still bullish on the the U.S. markets and looking for a 30% gain on the DOW this year, from close of 2017.

Resistance til 28K, then
free and clear til around 36K.

I still have a (high end) target of 65K for the Dow by 2024.

What we are experiencing now is a normal, healthy correction. We need the short sellers to pile on here. When the markets reverse to the upside, the short sellers covering their shorts will help to drive the DOW through 28K and up towards 36K.

DOW major support on the monthly chart at 22922.

We're a ways from the month end closing, but a month end closing below 22,922 would not be good.Next level of support would be around 21,700.

Alright, so far today BitCoin stopped at 7960. If this leg down was a w3, then a w4 retracement should stop at 12,518 (38.2%), 13,926 (50%), or 15,333 (61.8%) before a 5th wave down.

Lets watch...

Bitcoin update:

If Bitcoin is in an ABC correction from the 19,891 top, then the price should reverse around 8,079 and continue onto a new high.

If Bitcoin is in crash mode (5 waves down), then wave three should bring the price down to 2,410 (ouch!). If this target is hit, I'll come back here for an update.

Bitcoin:

Breaking 11,000 and lookout below.... could go to 6000.

Fun to watch. Glad I'm not participating.

Be careful out there.

DOW (DJIA):

Looking for a normal correction this year (12-20%).

The question is... where does it start and what will be the fundamental reason.

And.... does the correction start near the 26k level or the 28k level...? Once we get through 28k, there's clear skies ahead til 36k.

Now Kodak.

http://www.businessinsider.com/kodak-launches-new-blockchain-project-for-photographers-2018-1

CNET:

Want to add that yesterday's close was 1.17, opened today at 2.84, went to a high today to 11.90 and closed at 9.34

Average vol normally is 289,000. Today , it traded almost 82 MILLION shares....!

And I wouldn't be suprised if it went up another $2-$4 tomorrow. Will be fun to watch.

I should add that this cryptocurrency/blockchain bubble could take a few years to burst. This is just the beginning, imo. When the penny stocks get bid up (Wolf of Wallstreet anyone?) because they're getting into cyrpt/blkchn, the end is near. Unless you've lived through and watched one of the bubbles run it's course and burst, you have no idea.....

Please everyone, be careful and let common sence prevail.

CNET:

Well, it's official! CNET today just kicked off the beginning of the end of cryptocurrency/blockchain bubble. Just like in the dotcom era, companies will start to announce they're getting into blockchain. Their stock price will soar. Eventually, the pink sheet stocks will do the same. Then, game over.

Not saying blockchain isn't useful, or cyrptocurrencies, they will have their place, especially blockchain, imo.

The millenials are about to experience the dotcom bubble; tulip mania; the railroad bubble; the automobile bubble;......

Very few will make a dime. Most will lose money. Some will lose it all.

Be careful out there. It's a jungle.

condela: from 19,891 ...eom

Bitcoin Observations:

If this is an abc correction, bitcoin should stop at 7321, then bitcoin would reverse and print a new high.

If bitcoin is crashing, then it should have a leg down to the 1652 area, then a partial retracement, followed by a 5th wave down.

Time will tell. Observation taken from a daily chart.

conelda: I rarely buy indivdual company stocks.

I'm looking at JCP. I'd like to buy it at $2 or under. Then it could be a quick double. Book value is $3.56/shr; Enterprise Value: $16.31/shr.

Maybe in the 1st half of 2018 the retail stocks will tank. I'm sure after the new year, we'll hear of some retailers going under, and store closings ( Sear's...?). Maybe that could drag JCP to 2 or under...?

Watching it.....

High Range Target for DOW 2018:

28,000 - 55,000

55k is the ABSOLUTE high. I doubt we get there, but 28k is the min. high I see for 2018.

Goldman Sachs getting into Bitcoin?
(Bitcoin is currently over $13,000)

Goldman Sachs is looking to open up a Bitcoin trading desk. The outlook is Goldman would attract a lot of money to the crytocurrency.

Like the dotcom mania brought down the NASDAQ and other markets, I can see bitcoin triggering a contagion to disrupt the markets. Once bitcoin futures start trading, I can see an eventual crash in bitcoin. People on margin and leverage will be forced to liquidate other shares to make up for the loses. Because in a correction/crash, quality stocks get sold as well as the garbage to raise funds, smart money will have a great opportunity to scoop up cheap shares of quailty stocks. Granted, this won't happen today or tomorrow, but it will happen. Everyone will be in, a panic happens, everyone runs for the exits and no one is buying. Seen it before.

Keep some powder dry.

Pullback in the DOW... good for going forward... don't want too much too soon... broke minor support at 24231... moderate support at 23500... would be nice to correct to there... then head higher.

30,000 DOW in April 2018...?

17 Trading days left in 2017. If we close above 26k on December 31, 2017, I believe the
DOW can reach 30-32K sometime in April, 2018.

DOW currently stands at 24,290.05

Big year ahead. 2018 could be the year the DOW rises 100%, or so. Wouldn't surprise me one bit. :>)

30,000 DOW in April 2018...?

17 Trading days left in 2017. If we close above 26k on December 31, 2017, I belive the
DOW can reach 30-32K sometime in April, 2018.

DOW currently stands at 24,290.05

Big year ahead. 2018 could be the year the DOW rises 100%, or so. Wouldn't surprise me one bit. :>)

BitCoin.... tulip mania new millenial style.... Some people will loose every cent they put into BitCoin.... with one stroke of the pen, congress can outlaw BitCoin... the shares become worthless.

Earlier this year, China outlawed BitCoin because people were moving money out of China and into other countries to store their wealth... that's what people do when they loose faith in their government...move money to a country with a stable government with a rule of law and a stable currency... hence the reason money is flowing into the US from Europe... mainly Spain, Italy, and Germany.

BitCoin bottom line...? Going to make a great short...and that's how to make the big money playing BitCoin. (BitCoin currently over S11,000)

Well, obviously the DOW blew through 23,000

Money flowing into US stocks from over seas. The stronger the dollar, the more capital will flow into the US stock market.

Watch the euro and yen fall and the US $ stregthen against the Canadian $.

Looking for USD/Can 1.54 - 1.63
EUR/USD 0.88 - 0.80
GBP/USD 1.00 - 0.94
By 06/2019

Euro:

This looks like a good place to short the Euro: 1.1778

Would like to see it touch the 1.1850 area first, but sometimes when you wait, you lose out.

Looking at EUO as a way to go short the euro, plus it's leveraged 2X.

Holding for a year or so should see the euro go to .88 or even .80

Market Thoughts:

With all the talk of 97 months being longest bull market in history, and this one passed 97 month in April, 2017, is it possible this one ends at the Fibonaci Golden Ratio of 1.618?. If that is the case, then this bull market should end just shy of 157 months. That would take us to March 2022.

I've calculated Fibonaci numbers of 38.2, 50 and 61.8%. These turn out dates of, respectively, May 2020, September 2021, and March 2022.

For a variety of reasons, I'm leaning towards March 2022 (1.618%).

How big of a correction? I'm looking at Fibonaci re-tracement levels of 38.2, 50, and 61.8%. I'm leaning towards 38.2%.

Loosely using Elliot Wave principles, I'm looking at the March 2009 low to the March 2022 high as a Wave 3. So, a normal re-tracement would be 38.2, 50, or 61.8%.

Blew right through 23k. Next line of major resistance...? 23.7k.... could come up fast... within in 5-7 trading days... then a possible normal correction, 5-10%.

Let's see if the DOW can close at or above 23K today.

DOW: Within 170 points of 23K... getting interesting....

DOW:

The DOW is now just 227 points away from that all important area of 23K.

Will we bump it and re-treat...? Or, will we blow right through...?

XIV:

A sell signal was triggered today. So, the buy was triggered on August 10th @ 78.18 & the sell was triggered today @ 99.80, a 27.6% gain.

I will no longer be posting buy and sell signals for the XIV since I now have clients who pay for this info. If anyone here has profited from my posting these signals, glad I have been of help to you.

I will continue to post opinions of the major indexes as well as world ecomonics.

XIV:

Came very, very, VERY close to a sell signal today. A positive day tomorrow should produce a sell signal.

Less than 450 points away from DOW 23K. Now it's getting interesting.

XIV update:

Getting very close to a sell signal for XIV.

Another day like today on Monday, should produce a sell signal. A down day Monday for the SP500 woukd keep XIV as a hold, waiting for a sell signal.

A big question is: Will this coming sell signal be so strong as to warrant one to not only sell XIV, but to also go short....?

I'll know more next week.

Re: DOW 23K

As of now, it looks like a correction in the DOW is of the sideways variety, instead of a typical 10% or so pullback.

The DOW is 660 points away from 23K. Let's see what happens after we get there.

Here is one XIV scenario I'm looking for:

A sell signal followed by a nice spike in the VIX, over a couple of days, to create a quick buy signal. This quick spike would push the XIV down to 81.19, or a really large spike pushing the XIV down to 66.31

It would, imo ,take a HUGE news event to hit 66.31, but doable. Currently, there's no fear in the markets, so they're looking for any excuse to sell off and take profits.

Still waiting for an XIV sell signal. Could take another 10 trading days... or more.

dow 23k

we're getting closer and closer to dow 23,000. one of two things are likely;

1. we bounce off of 23,000 and correct for 6-10 percent or

2. we blow right through 23,000 and go up to 36-42k so fast it will make your head spin.

i prefer a 6-10 percent correction, then a slow grind higher. this would be better, long term.