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Too bad the idiots at LWLG did not raise funds when we were on that epic run. Still could have raised a substantial amount of funding with a PP after the NAS uplisting. The company would have been set for years. However they seem to like the vipers at LPC. I wonder why.
Yeah, doesn’t tell us anything we don’t already know
Vein - Written by Valkyrie Trading Society
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723303-lightwave-logic-a-waiting-game-reflexivity-risks-reduced#comments
Lightwave Logic: It's A Waiting Game, Reflexivity Risks Reduced
Sep. 25, 2024 4:22 PM ETLightwave Logic, Inc. (LWLG) StockGSIT1 Comment
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Valkyrie Trading Society
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Summary
Lightwave Logic, Inc. is doing a capital raise that has really reduced reflexivity considerations, which is a good thing, although it is, of course, dilutive.
On the other hand, the market will be focused on releases of new info around commercial agreements and will want to see cost control.
While holders are here for the large market potential, we want to be realistic about how long it will take for a company like this to get established, if ever.
It's a mad money exposure, and we think we have a more advantaged one with GSIT.
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Lightwave Logic, Inc. (NASDAQ:LWLG) is no longer a reflexivity case to the extent that the general market isn't in a bearish spot, and they are moving to raise capital at fine prices. Revenues have also accelerated as a partner explored their technology meant to increase communication speeds in internet infrastructure.
In our last coverage, we were focused on the release in May that they had signed some sort of commercial agreement. We see that that revenue is coming in, and with sequential acceleration, it is possible that either the agreement has scaled or that they've signed something new. Nonetheless, it's unknown when a breakthrough is going to occur that will significantly scale revenues, and until then, the company will be burning cash.
Realistically, they will need to keep coming to the market for cash, which they did just a month or so ago. They've done so recently with filing an intention of selling around $100 million of shares. We should see a 25% dilution in the upcoming filings. While licensing income is very high margin incrementally, the fixed costs are considerable. The reason to take a shot at the company would be the hope for more commercialization. The issue is, that these things almost always take longer than expected, and when things happen with tier 1 players, it usually starts very small. We don't see that a sustained inflection towards the full addressable market value for the business is likely.
Latest Results
They continue to generate some revenue through their first licensing agreement. It seems the agreement might be expanding as sequential revenue growth can be observed.
lwlg 10-q
IS (10-Q)
Using current run-rates for cash burn by taking the negative operating cash flow minus investing cash flows, we can draw some conclusions about a cash runway. We see that it should take less than 2 years for the $26 million in cash on the balance sheet as of the last earnings to be burned through. As mentioned, the company has filed to raise new capital after close of books. The price that this will happen at seems to be undetermined, and we aren't sure exactly the extent of the dilution, but it would be upward of 25%. The aggregate volume being raised is $100 million of funds.
That adds several more years of cash burn on top of the 1.5-2 years until the last reported cash balances are likely to run out. That is not considering possible revenue growth that could occur through new collaborations and licensing agreements, which will be instrumental to the commercialization plan. They have at least started earning some revenue.
Bottom Line
While dilution has been pushed out for a while longer once this latest stock sale is complete, the issue remains with companies like these. That is, it may take a long time for the company to reach even close to its potential. While announcements of new licensing deals may be short-term catalysts to the stock, the unpredictability of those announcements and the run-rate unsustainability of the business don't make short-term plays a wise strategy. Ultimately, LWLG will have to realize the market for an intelligent investor to want to take a position today. However, longer term, it can take a very long time to embrace new technologies. This is particularly for entrenched infrastructure, and communicating the benefits to executives can be very difficult, particularly when the cost-benefit analysis for projects utilizing older technologies are much more definite.
Generally, the direction towards a lower cost of capital environment should be able to support cash burners. A weaker inflation reading than expected, albeit helped out by the turn down in oil, has assured the recent movement down and could promise others. Oil is a little weaker as supply cuts phase out by OPEC+ members. However, crude inventories are low in the US, and the benefit to industrials from a lower cost of capital environment could invigorate oil once again. We believe oil to be one of the few reasons why a rate cut in the US was possible at all.
Reflexivity has been well staved off, at least with the latest move to sell stock. The issue is when a major agreement comes, though. As a mad money exposure, LWLG is fine, but we don't perceive anything that would indicate that a massive increase in revenues is likely. If revenue does scale, it might require more R&D and more G&A. The latter could rise considerably YoY and not just through non-cash stock expenses, where outstanding dilution from options and warrants also remains considerable, as discussed in our last article, around 10%.
We have an investment with a profile like this in GSI Technologies (GSIT). It takes a lot of time, and you have to be really convinced that their technology will be the future. GSIT also has the advantage that it has its legacy business to prevent excessive dilution and sustain at least some development costs.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
If you thought our angle on this company was interesting, you may want to check out our idea room, The Value Lab. We focus on long-only value ideas of interest to us, where we try to find international mispriced equities and target a portfolio yield of about 4%. We've done really well for ourselves over the last 5 years, but it took getting our hands dirty in international markets. If you are a value-investor, serious about protecting your wealth, our gang could help broaden your horizons and give some inspiration.
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The Valkyrie Trading Society is a team of analysts sharing high conviction and obscure developed market ideas that are downside limited and likely to generate non-correlated and outsized returns in the context of the current economic environment and forces. They are long-only investors.
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GSIT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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The ultimate leverage. Show you can do it (mostly, at least) on your own if you “have” to.
Packaged end product, we always
Dreamed of that, Joe Miller always said. Do it.
X
Radiation poisoning.
Box of rocks, Google it.
Also Google cognitive decline....x
Article out from seeking alpha
100 shares at 2.87 after market complete BS. Vein I will buy your shares up to $100k at $2.75. Next to Bidens beach home.
Deal? Cash or silver or gold.
X. Birdie told me to do so we can meet at Rehoboth your call. Put up or shut up.
Some changes seem to be always around the corner
and then they move faster than expected and you are caught flat-footed.
The best would’ve a companies forecast of revenues!!
A sharp increase in licensing revenues may also be a trigger for such coverage!
Watch out for the forthcoming Qs!!!
It may be highly uncomfortable to be caught with your pant down, or your shorts high, whichever applies ... LOL
GLTAL
AR.
Bingo, huge.
X Wai for it.
BUY RATINGS after analyst BUY
then they will put buy signal on lwlg
Thats how it works imo of course
"It turns out that the prevention of oxygen diffusing into the plasmonic device also protects it from other agents”.
This line caught my attention. Some of us have speculated on the slow development of the ALD engineering. If I read this correctly, the plasmonic device provides hermetic protection itself.
Reliability Data
24th September 2024
Polariton Technologies announces today a groundbreaking generation of plasmonic electro-optic non-hermetically packaged modulators for applications at temperatures up to 85 °C. Such devices will be essential supporting future data center connectivity with 1.6T and 3.2T optical transceivers. This corresponds to 400 Gbit/s intensity modulation and direct detection (IM/DD) per single lane and to coherent dual-polarization 1.6 Tbit/s modulation per wavelength for inter-data center communication.
The announcement is made in conjunction with an accepted paper at the European Conference for Optical Communication (ECOC) 2024 and a talk given by Wolfgang Heni, co-CTO of Polariton, in Frankfurt this week; “We have been testing dozens of devices in continuous operation and long-term storage at various temperatures. It turns out that the prevention of oxygen diffusing into the plasmonic device also protects it from other agents”.
The paper published at ECOC displays long-term measurement for more than 4000 hours continuous operation in air with less than 10% in Vp variation. An increase of Vp is usually associated with the degradation of the electro-optic material, the stability of the other key performance indicators is the result of an effective encapsulation from the environment and stressors like oxygen, water, and heat.
Further highlights of the paper include a predictable insertion loss of the plasmonic slot of 0.4 dB/µm and grating couplers that attenuate light by less than 2 dB. On top of optical transceivers, the new generation of modulators targets microwave photonics and microwave antennas up to 300 GHz
Manny have told numerous times to sell sell sell.
But you can’t because this is what you do you probably don’t even own any lwlg stock
I still think there used to be a jacked up reason we are trading at these shit levels
I think it is a chicken/egg situation. An analyst does not want to put out a buy recommendation when things are still murky and the timeline unspecified. I think we will see analysts come on board only after we see some kind of "tier 1" announcement from LWLG.
With Italian immigrant parents, I'm a big gardner. To build you're patience, try planting some asparagus crowns 8" deep and wait to harvest 3 years so they are permanently established!
I’m way beyond impatient. This is ridiculous!!
Some of you impatient guys should take up gardening. Gardening can be good therapy. Plant some potatoes or something. With potatoes, it doesn't look like much on the surface until you start to dig up the garden... Those damned potatoes must sign NDAs or something LOL! Vein???
He has been going to these conferences for years now. He has never been able to connect any dots. They come and go with world record results and Lebby can't get a signature from anyone but he is excited. 🤣🤣🤣
Why do people act like it's a big deal to get a buy order filled ?
I had 4 buy orders and they all filled. Hip hip hurry, I say only 40 of my last 50 filled. Based on the volume it should be a decent afternoon.
X
Looks like your orders filled, if not even more today, eh?
Lots available.
Please provide factual information.
Your “belief” ain’t worth doodly-squat.
Why are you still here, dude. You were late to the game, lost money, so get out.
I had high praise for you with your short calls in the 8 range. Now you are all over the place and make up whatever you want. You broke my heart Fredo.
11.9 BILLION shares outstanding LMAO. And shorties here want to worry about our dilution.... SMH
I had a feeling 3 bucks was too much to handle
That’s all we have are interviews and commentary!!
I believe there is way less shares short than posted with all the games played in the dark pool. JMO
I'm probably missing something, so I apologize in advance. Is there any chance Lightwave and Polariton are using a bigger, more established foundry for their 200m wafers than AMF? or is it common knowledge for everybody (except me) that it's AMF
Jose Pozo on LinkedIn less than 30 minutes ago:
"LEBBY ON AI AND EXPECTATIONS FROM Optica GLOBAL PHOTONICS ECONOMIC FORUM in Malaga, next week. My fascinating visit to Lightwave Logic, Inc. in Colorado seems to have triggered many conversations here on Linkedin and elsewhere. Here are a couple of extra thoughts Michael Lebby had on the relevance of photonics to AI, competing with copper, and what he expects to hear from top CEO's next week in Malaga. I hope you will also be in the audience. https://lnkd.in/efgFrbqq
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7244713374129815553/
We shall see!!! Hoping for it to be sure.
Will be interesting to see what follow-through commentary comes from Optica Conference next week. In addition to Dr. Lebby leading discussion with former Coherent CEO and others, also have Global Foundries CTO presenting.
9k shorts played this morning, low volume, 3k more sells than buys and the price is even. I have my buy orders below yesterdays close, so none have filled yet.
X Not seeing a dominant MM so no games by them today. I'll watch for 11:20 then adjust accordingly
I hear you Matt, but they initiate coverage on pre-revenue companies all the time. That's what they get paid to do...
I think we are a lot closer to coverage than we might imagine...
F2
They won’t initiate coverage until they have revenues. They can’t asses LWLG’s past and projected performance as there are no clients yet of substance. Once we get legitimate recurring revenue then we should get coverage, IMHO.
I cannot honestly imagine how nervous I would be to be on the hook for so many shares short with no exit strategy. That fact that they can watch developments and still believe this company will not be in a venture with a Tier 1 company or simply bought out at a much higher price in the VERY NEAR future is astounding. All the hand writing is on the wall. 10,000 industry experts, partnerships with foundries and new/fast movers with new technology all point to adoption... it's insane to be on the hook for that kind of bet against the company. But to each their own. I smell fear personally...
F2
From Goole's AI Overview
…
Plasmonics has many advantages for use in optical modulators, including:
Compact size: Plasmonic nanostructures are ultra-thin, lightweight, and ultra-compact, which can overcome some limitations of traditional optical elements.
High bandwidth: Plasmonic modulators can have high bandwidths.
Low power consumption: Plasmonic modulators can potentially have low power consumption.
Tight confinement: Plasmonic technologies can achieve the tightest confinement of all photonic technologies.
Light-matter interaction: Plasmonics can enhance light-matter interaction, which can lead to efficient electro-optic modulators (EOMs).
Reduced structure length: Plasmonics can allow for a significant reduction in structure length, which is important for densely co-integrated electronic photonic circuits.
Resonance phenomena: Some state-of-the-art plasmonic EOMs use resonance phenomena and multi-pass schemes to improve their modulation performance.
and if you add Lightwave's polymers it could be like "changing the 4 cylinder engine to a V8 engine" without altering the device structure. The small and compact structure would be ideal in data centers where the landscape is very tight. Lightwave and Polariton seems a very good match.
It looks like Dr. Smith is getting a little bit irritable, buckle up, asshole
X give us a fucking break, you know nothing and have no secrets. You have been pumping this crap from $20 down to $2.50.
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The need for Lightwave Logic’s proprietary electro-optic polymers is more evident than at any prior point in history, with internet infrastructure coming under increasing strain due to increased online activity. For example, during the recent COVID-19 pandemic, leading platforms such as YouTube prevented high-definition (HD) streaming in Europe due to data throughput issues in existing internet infrastructure.
The Company’s current focus is on the datacom and telecommunications hardware supply chain for the 100 Gbps and 400 Gbps fiber optics communications market, seeking to integrate its proprietary materials into the devices that comprise key components in today’s internet infrastructure. Lightwave Logic’s unique value proposition, including ease of manufacture relative to traditional solutions, has driven several tier-1 and tier-2 potential strategic partners in the data and telecommunications markets to enter into non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) with Lightwave Logic to evaluate its technology for use in their devices, validating the demand for the Company’s solution in the marketplace. The Company expects to introduce its technology into the commercial marketplace in the near future.
Lightwave Logic is a wholly U.S.-based company with in-house materials synthesis, device/package design, wafer fabrication and testing capabilities at its Englewood, Colorado headquarters.
Having the modulator and integrated circuit development in-house has informed the materials development direction and vice versa. This vertically integrated business model enables a superior platform by aligning the design for manufacturability from materials to complex circuits with the following benefits:
Materials are called electro-optic when they enable interactions between applied electric fields and light passing through them. Notably, they change the refractive index seen by the light with minimum loss. The result is an instantaneous and accurate conversion of an electrical signal to an optical signal. Optical signals are better for transmission over distance: an increasingly useful feature as digital signal speeds are now reaching the GHz and THz ranges and the corresponding electrical transmission distances are shrinking to meters and centimeters.
EO polymers are intrinsically superior in speed and sensitivity to electric field to traditional electro-optic materials such as Lithium Niobate, Indium Phosphide and Silicon. They are engineered materials, made by embedding a variety of specially designed electro-optic chromophore molecules into a wide range of standard host polymers.
Chromophores are complex, large molecules, on a scale akin to drug molecules. They are hyperpolarizable, meaning their electron clouds are easily pulled into a different shape by the applied electric field, changing their optical properties such as index of refraction.
The material is poled to become electro-optic by applying a strong electric field along with heat. The hot material is relatively soft, allowing the chromophore molecules suspended in the host polymer to align in the same direction (poling). Cooling the poled material after the molecules are in place traps them in their active state even after the poling field is removed.
Although the electrons in the material respond to any applied electric field, they remain tightly bound to the molecule. The response to an applied signal is almost instantaneous response and recovery– like that of a tight spring– unlike materials that involve much slower macroscopic movement of free electrons.
Another key difference from traditional crystalline materials is the performance of EO polymers continues to improve as chemists explore the almost unlimited design space. Combinations of chromophores and host polymers can be tailored for specific applications.
In addition to innovating the EO polymer materials, Lightwave Logic takes its technology platform to the next level by developing ancillary materials and processes. These elements are brought together and demonstrated in advanced high-speed optical modulators.
The polymer is spun onto silicon wafers and standard microfabrication techniques are used to deposit and pattern metal electrodes and optical waveguides.
One well-known optical modulator device is the Mach-Zehnder interferometer. The light output is changed by changing the relative phase between the two arms. One common trick to double the effect for the same available drive voltage is to drive the two arms in opposite directions (push-pull mode). Polymers have an interesting advantage over most other electro-optic materials which are crystalline. The direction of polymer’s electro-optic activity is entirely determined by the direction of the applied poling field. By poling the two arms of the Mach-Zehnder in opposite directions, the resulting device automatically has push-pull operation with a single applied signal.
Once the modulator chip is made, it is packaged for mechanical protection and also to ensure signal quality for electrical and optical connections.
Below is a polymer optical modulator with >60 GHz bandwidth packaged with high-speed electrical connectors and optical pigtails.
Inspired by the remarkable record of integrated microelectronics, the opto-electronics industry has great interest in developing photonic integrated circuits (PICS). Photonics refers to devices that manipulate photons—that is, light—rather than electrons.
Even the best individual devices can be made more functional by integrating many together. Integration has many benefits, the most notable being dramatic improvements in size and cost. Yet, photonic integration has only recently come into the spotlight. The primary applications for photonics used to require stand-alone, high performance components such as used for long-haul telecom.
Now, photonic integration has suddenly come into the spotlight as electronic interconnects struggle to keep up with speed increases of electronic chips. Photonics is being looked at to replace electronics in already highly integrated applications such as chip interconnect. Co-packaging of electronics integrated circuits (ICs) with photonic interconnect, considered unlikely a few years ago, is now viewed by many as inevitable. However, this requirement poses new challenges that are acknowledged as difficult and that new technologies will be required to meet them.
P2IC™ (Polymer Photonic Integrated Circuits) are ideally positioned to be one of these new technologies. Lightwave Logic’s devices are made using conventional wafer-scale processing such as used for microelectronics and therefore similarly capable of being integrated. In addition, the polymer microfabrication processes are compatible with other materials platforms such as Silicon Photonics and Indium Phosphide which are now starting to become more integrated. In particular, the Silicon Photonics ecosystem has recently accepted that its roadmap will include adding more and more materials, each for their specific benefits. EO polymers’ speed and voltage advantages are attractive additions to this ecosystem.
A fiber link sends data from a transmitter to a receiver through an optical fiber cable. Lightwave Logic’s technology can be used to make a data modulator, a central function of the transmitter.
Datacenters and high-performance computing (HPC) are two market segments that demand the very highest speed optical fiber communications. The datacenter fiber communications segment includes applications ranging from connections inside hyperscale datacenters to fiber links between datacenter campuses.
Optical fiber communication is the infrastructure that supports internet content through its entire lifecycle, between businesses, consumers and datacenters. Behind the scenes, massive amounts of data move between computer processors inside datacenters (or inside supercomputers) as content is generated. In addition to these intra-datacenter links, there are also significant datacenter interconnection links between big datacenters to provide flexible capacity and resilience – all of these represent significant addressable market segments for Lightwave Logic’s technology.
Modulator performance limits the speed of the transmitter, which in turn limits the data-carrying capacity of the entire fiber link. EO polymers have superior speed and sharply reduce the electrical power needed to operate the modulators.
Lightwave Logic estimates that in 2019, the total market for opto-electronic components used in the fiber optics market reached a value of ~$26 billion and is forecasted to grow to approximately $80 billion by 2030.
Above: Market forecasts for photonic (electro-optic) components and transceivers used in optical fiber communications. (Source: Oculi LLC)
The growth in the optical fiber communications market is driven by many factors, primarily:
The historic trend has been a migration from text to graphics, followed by still graphics to increasingly high-definition video. On the accessibility front, the introduction of 5G will enable low-cost mobile internet connections at the same, or higher speeds, as today’s home broadband. This trend continues today as users demand more data at all times.
Recently, particularly since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a sharp increase in reliance on video-conferencing services, often replacing in-person meetings. As video conferencing becomes more commonly used, users will continue to demand faster response times to enable no-lag, real-time communications in full HD.
The benefits of EO polymers, such as low power usage, high speed, increased throughput and lower cost make them ideally suited for markets outside of communications as well, including in consumer, media, augmented reality/virtual reality, medical and industrial applications.
Developing, protecting and commercializing intellectual property is central to Lightwave Logic’s identity as a technology company. Lightwave Logic has over 50 U.S. and international patents and applications that are issued or pending.
These patents provide freedom of manufacture for the company’s electro-optic (EO) polymer materials systems and its optical device technology.
Lightwave Logic’s patent portfolio covers the following areas:
The company continuously seeks to innovate new electro-optic chromophores, designing molecular architectures to meet application needs such as high electro-optic activity and stability. We also design ancillary materials that are useful in conjunction with the EO polymers themselves. Example patents within the materials category include:
Publication Number | Title |
---|---|
US Patent 7,902,322 | Nonlinear optical chromophores with stabilizing substituent and electro-optic devices |
US Patent 9,535,215 | Fluorinated Sol-Gel Low Refractive Index Hybrid Optical Cladding and Electro-Optic Devices Made Therefrom |
As the company demonstrates its materials in devices, such as modulators, it has engineered ways to enhance device performance by means of device design and optimized control. Example patents within the optical device category include:
Publication Number | Title |
---|---|
US Patent 10,520,673 | Protection layers for polymer modulators/waveguides |
US Patent 7,738,745 | Method of Biasing and Operating Electr-Optic Polymer Optical Modulators |
Materials innovations are followed by methods in which the Company or its partners can best work with the materials in the fabrication process. Example patents within the fabrication category include:
Publication Number | Title |
---|---|
US Patent Application 20190353843 | Fabrication process of polymer based photonic apparatus and the apparatus |
US Patent 10,591,755 | Direct-drive polymer modulator methods of fabricating and materials therefor |
Polymers can be used to add functionality to existing semiconductor devices, inclusive of making photonic integrated circuits (ICs). Areas of active innovation include how to get light from one material system into another with minimal losses. Example patents within the semiconductor integration category include:
Publication Number | Title |
---|---|
US Patent 10,527,786 | Polymer modulator and laser integrated on a common platform and method |
US Patent 10,511,146 | Guide transition device with digital grating deflectors and method |
Challenges for high-speed optical packaging includes maintaining the quality of radio-frequency electrical signals and hermetic/environmental sealing of devices for durability (while still allowing light to go through). Example patents within the packaging category include:
Publication Number | Title |
---|---|
US Patent 10,574,025 | Hermetic capsule and method for a monolithic photonic integrated circuit |
US Patent 10,162,111 | Multi-fiber/port hermetic capsule sealed by metallization and method |
We cannot assure you that we will meet the conditions of the 2023 Purchase Agreement with Lincoln Park in order to obligate Lincoln Park to purchase our shares of common stock, and we cannot assure you that we will be able to sell any shares under or fully utilize the Roth Sales Agreement. In the event we fail to do so, and other adequate funds are not available to satisfy long-term capital requirements, or if planned revenues are not generated, we may be required to substantially limit our operations. This limitation of operations may include reductions in capital expenditures and reductions in staff and discretionary costs.
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