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“Looking good, Billy Ray! Feeling good, Louis!” Indicators are bullish. I'm fully invested expecting new highs on the S&P 500.
Thanks for the feedback Baja6string. May a positive market be with us!
One can always read my Blog at...
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/
I track a lot of indicators and I'm beginning to think I might know something - that's usually when everything goes to "you-know-what." The Thrift Savings Plan site is a good site for discussion of markets, because we don't have a bunch of nut cases here and there are some talented posters. On that subject...
How are you Frenchee? We haven't heard from you in a while.
My Opinion on Over Extending Gains: Recently, the CNBC news/discussion was about a delivering alpha investor survey that indicated about two thirds of investors believe the markets have gone too far, too fast. Hmmm. Going back to the top in January of 2022, the S&P 500 is up 9.4% as of Wednesday’s close. The return for buy-and-hold investors is less that 10% over the last 2+ years. It doesn’t seem too fast or two far for me. Markets have jumped up since the 25% down, Bear-market-bottom in October of 2022, but that’s what happens when Bear markets end.
The S&P 500 touched its lower trendline Tuesday and bounced higher afterward – buy the dip remains.
Still, there are some indications that are concerning: (1) The S&P 500 is 13.8% above its 200-dMA. (A number greater than 12% above the 200-day can be a concern, but it can get even further stretched after a significant bottom, i.e. bear market.) (2) Late-day action has been weak recently suggesting the Pros are getting concerned.
Bottom line: I am still more than fully invested, 65% in stocks (100% S-fund in the TSP.) I remember an investment advisor who said Federal employees can get more aggressive because the retirement plan is guaranteed money.
I sold out a while ago, as I'm nearing retirement and very risk averse.
Hi all. The forum has been quiet lately. Sending a ping to see if anyone is feeling a concern on overextending gains. I'm setting at 7.77% for the year with S-Fund mostly driving the train and I'm watching closely using my process. Is anyone targeting a move? Thinking about taking a pause or moving to a less risk based fund until I see another run. Would appreciate any feedback because I'll always consider myself a "mostly successful" novice. HA. Thanks!
Same for me. 100% S Fund. Hopeful to show a 6%+ gain for the year by the end of March. Very close now. Happy investing!
Hi Snippy - Glad you agree. I forgot to mention that my TSP is 100% in the "S" fund. I still think the smaller caps are in the process of "catching up."
Hi Baja, I agree. I'm fully invested as well and watching closely. The year has been favorable so far.
Speaking of Bollinger Bands - they are stretched, but not yet overbought. RSI is not overbought either. The S&P 500 remains near its' lower trendline so all seems mostly good. Still there are worries since the Index is more than 13% above its 200-dMA and that's high enough to raise concerns. I am fully invested now, but keeping an eye on indicators.
Thanks Frenchee. Interesting talk by Mr. Bollinger.
Thanks for sharing Frenchee.
John Bollinger: What’s Behind The Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Video
New I Fund for 2024
After years of delays, the TSP’s I fund will track a new index starting in 2024. https://federalnewsnetwork.com/tsp/2023/11/after-years-of-delays-the-tsps-i-fund-will-track-a-new-index-starting-in-2024/
ACWI is the new ETF, which will help us track the new I Fund. https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/7997f714-2b51-d7fb-dca2-ed9ff978d508
I Fund, new
I will go 100% cash on November 28, as momentum appears to be turning over. Nice 10% run since October 27th!
C Fund, Daily Chart
C Fund Setting Up for Consolidation Next Week
As I write this, C Fund is up 7.5% since its October low.
The weight of the evidence suggests a consolidation starting next week. C Fund is overbought, nearing a fundamental 61.8% Fib retracement level from the October 27 low, and coming up on a significant intermediate-term downtrend line that started on July 27.
The linked chart shows the C Fund testing its mid-October high and nearing an upside breakout. Odds for an upside breakout are enhanced by the relative strength of large tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100, which pull the rest of the market higher. The critical question is, "Will the market break out next week or consolidate?" My forecast is consolidation before a breakout.
C Fund, Daily Chart
Good morning, baja6string.
I appreciate your input. I pulled the string this morning.
My portfolio mix will be 60% C Fund and 40% F Fund at the day's end. May the Force be with us!
Cheers!
I bought S, I, and C Monday.
I agree with your assessment, Frenchee. I was a little early since I thought the weakness was over back in late August. The S&P 500 dropped another 3% after my previous call. Today, there was a nearly 4 standard deviation improvement in new-high/new-low spread. That’s a solid bullish signal. In addition, my New-high/New-low percentages are in a zone that has previously occurred near bottoms. That’s a different indicator that looks at the percentage of new-high vs new-lows on a moving average basis. If that indicator reverses, I think we can say goodbye to this downturn. There are a few other bottom signs, too, but none screaming a bottom.
Get Your Rally Cap Ready
The C Fund is oversold, coming up on support, and there's a positive divergence between price and the CCI.
I plan to move 60% into the C Fund when the parabolic SAR reverses. May the Force be with us.
https://schrts.co/SKmuzMWj" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" >https://schrts.co/SKmuzMWj[tag]C Fund, Daily Chart [tag]
Long-Term F Fund Investors: Take Note
Many of the forecasts I hear regarding bonds seem to be based upon what bonds have done for most of the last 40 years without acknowledging what has happened more recently. The chart below shows that 30-Year T-Bonds were in a rising trend from the 1982 low, but in early-2020 they made a long-term top, and began trending downward. That down trend lasted long enough for price to violate the rising trend line, which is strong evidence that the long-term trend has now shifted downward. Technically, we should expect that this down trend will continue for a long time, probably decades.
Bonds: Don't Forget the Long-Term Trend
When I Jump Back Into the Equity Side, I'm Going to be with C Fund
Large Cap Stocks Are A Better Bet for the Rest of 2023
Welcome back! Don't be a stranger.
Thanks Baja. Happy to see your assessment. I've been in for about two weeks as well. Normally August and September are down months so I'm hoping the end of weakness will put us in a better position for the remaining portion of 2023. I'm setting at a positive 14.8% for the year so no overall complaints. And I agree that more posters would be ideal. I don't consider myself as fully schooled on the investment process but have learned a great deal following this site and have a few years of solid results as a direct result.
Looks like the market weakness is mostly over. I am fully invested at this point, and have been for about a week. We need some more posters here.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell through important chart support sending a message that further losses may be looming
Next potential support at 98.78. TSP investing implications annotated on linked chart.
US $ Chart, Weekly
Market timers are more bullish now than at the top of internet bubble
Why this is not a good time to put more money into stocks
Target Date Funds: Are They the Air Fryer of the Investment World?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh4znVw7uZ0&ab_channel=ExpeditionRetirementShowbyGoldenReserve" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" >https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh4znVw7uZ0&ab_channel=ExpeditionRetirementShowbyGoldenReserve[tag]Are you curious about target date funds and why they're so prevalent in 401(k)s? What exactly is a target date fund? Why do they feel like a safe option as you approach retirement? And most importantly, are they truly worth it, or just like the Air Fryer pretending to be more than a convection oven?
This video explores how target date funds work and why they make you feel comfortable as retirement looms. ?? As you get closer to retirement, taking less risk seems appealing, and these funds provide a specific "target date" for the transition. But here's the catch – there's a FEE involved for something you could potentially manage yourself, much like that convection oven in your kitchen that replicates the Air Fryer's capabilities.
Shockingly, many people don't even hold onto target date funds until retirement! So, what's the deal? Are these funds as reliable as they seem, or is there a reason why they're not a long-term investment solution?
Buyer, beware, as we reveal the truth about target date funds, ensuring you make informed financial decisions. While they might appear fancy and sophisticated, you may end up with a convection oven when you thought you had something fancy. ??
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I think the short-term high was last week so I'd give you credit for what may turn out to be an excellent correction call. We'll see...
Opps
I didn't get the correction this week as expected, but the pump remains primed for one, as there are negative divergences on the price charts with its indicators. Because of this, I will stick my neck out and invest 40% into the F Fund today, as when the correction starts, I suspect the gains from equities will rotate into bonds.
F Fund Chart, Weekly
Here's a big reason you can expect bonds to start outperforming stocks
Extreem Greed on 13 June
Extreem greed is driving the market at the moment.
Fear & Greed Index
Looking for Correction Week of 12 Jun
"The average recommended equity exposure level among short-term stock market timers (as measured by my Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI) is now higher than 97.6% of all other daily readings since 2000. That’s well inside the zone of extreme bullishness that previously signaled tough times ahead." ~ Mark Hulbert
NAAIM Exposure Index
Thanks for your comments, B6S.
The S Fund was the relative strength winner this week. Check out the chart at the link below, which shows the one-week performance of C, S, F, and I funds on one chart. Make sure to right-click on the data slide at the bottom of the chart and select the past week.
One Week Relative Strength Chart
Thanks for keeping up the good work Frenchee. I am still holding 50%C - 50%S. I've been there since the October lows. The Wilshire 2000 is underperforming the Nasdaq Composite by 16.5% since the October low. That appears to be changing and the Russell has picked up this week. That should mean the S fund will do better too.
I summarize many indicators on Friday. My indicators were VERY bullish last Friday. I suspect they will be very bullish tomorrow, 9 June.
According to Ned Davis Research, money market funds over the past 13 weeks saw the fastest pace of asset inflows since July 2020
That money will be invested.
ICI: MMF Assets Hit Record $?5.?4 Trillion (?Crane $?5.?83T); Fed'?s Jefferson
Bonds Outperforming Commodities?
There could be life for F Fund.
$CRB vs. AGG Weekly Chart
Short sellers are more bearish than they’ve been in a long time
If we take seriously the message of the short sellers, we must therefore conclude that the market is in a very high-risk zone right now. “The lesson of history suggests there are several possibilities,” Professor Ringgenberg said in an interview. We could be facing “a short-term blip a la the 2013 possible default or a structural economic downturn a la 2008.”
Either way, now doesn’t seem like the time to throw caution to the wind.
Short sellers are more bearish than they’ve been in a long time
The real reason to expect L Fund to rally
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-reason-to-expect-bonds-to-rally-e918f767?mod=panda_marketwatch_author_alert
L Fund, Weekly Chart
Selling I Fund on Cinco de Mayo
Momentum indicators are rolling over on EFA (I Fund). It's time to take profits and look for a reload spot.
May the 4th be with you!
I Fund, Weekly Chart
"Bear Shift" Changes Character of the Market
https://decisionpoint.com/articles/decisionpoint/2023/04/bear-shift-changes-character-o-774.html
Selling C Fund Today
The C Fund appears to be rolling over and it's time to lock in gains. At day's end, will be 60% G Fund and 30% I Fund.
C Fund, Daily Chart
Long-Term C Fund
C Fund had a long-term buy signal at March's end using the Fast MACD settings of 5,35,5. See the referenced monthly chart. It's the green dashed vertical lines.
C Fund, Monthly
Well done, baja6string!
I'm currently 2% L 2065, 42% G Fund, 28% C Fund, and 28% I Fund.
What's keeping me off of S Fund is its relative strength among the stock choices we have is the least and the direction of the US Dollar and its impact on S Fund. See the referenced chart.
I'm hoping to pick a spot to become fully invested at the next short-term correction.
$US Dollar Weekly Chart
I remain fully invested, 50%-S, 50%-C. For me, it all depends on the 200-dMA. Many of my indicators flipped bearish last week (about 2 to 1 bears), but to some extent, they are following the price trend. If the S&P 500 can pull back above its 200-day on Monday or Tuesday, I'll stay fully invested. If not, I'll be selling. The FED guaranteed deposits at US banks; UBS bought credit Suisse and that should end contagion worries. I suspect markets will move back to buy-the-dip mode this week, but we'll see.
Taking a Starter Position in I Fund Today
I like the I Fund's relative strength compared to the C and S Funds. Took a 30% position in the I Fund.
I Fund, Daily Chart
Never wrong to take profits.
Thanks Baja. I see the same but after this past year and already claiming 8.3% for January at 100% in, I chose to protect my gains for Jan. Hopeful for a new run and if so, I’ll be ready to jump back in early Feb. Good luck!
Indicators are very bullish and have been for more than a week. I'm fully invested 75% stocks overall (100% TSP), which is higher than normal for me. I generally follow the rules for a conservative retiree - 50% invested in stocks. Because there are so many pundits expecting recession and stock disaster, I went 50-50 S&C funds. If I had more guts I'd be 100% S-fund. I think we've seen the bottom, but a retest is always possible.
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Background. The Thrift Saving Plan (TSP) is a retirement savings plan for current and retired federal civil service employees. The thrift savings plan is a defined-contribution plan designed to give federal employees the same retirement savings-related benefits that workers in the private sector enjoy with 401(k) plans. A Summary of the TSP can be found at this link tspbk08.pdf
Purpose. This Board contains market-timing commentary and discussion about the Government's Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) and the investment choices.
References. The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is Home | The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)
G Fund The G Fund invests in short-term U.S. treasuries and functions as a money market account. The principal is guaranteed.
S Fund The S Fund - the Small cap is a bit of a misnomer for this Fund. It is all of the U.S. stocks that are not included in the S&P 500. There are some relatively large companies in this Fund. It is a compilation of mid-cap stocks and small-cap stocks. It tracks the Barclays Extended Market Index Fund, which tracks the Wilshire 4500 index. Investing in C and S funds is investing in every tradable U.S. company. The Vanguard Extended Market Index VIPERS (VXF) is a proxy for the S Fund.
C Fund The C Fund invests in the Barclays Equity Index Fund, which tracks the S&P 500, the 500 largest U.S. companies traded. The S&P Large Cap Index ($SPX) is a proxy for the C Fund.
F Fund The F Fund is invested in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund, a bond index fund that holds a representative sample of the bonds in the Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate (LBA) index. Economic indicators and money supply affect interest rates. Interest rates influence the movement of this Fund. When yields move lower, bonds go up in price, and the F fund goes up in value. When yields increase, bonds go down in price, and the F fund decreases in value. The iShares Core Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) is a proxy for the F Fund.
I Fund The I Fund - The International Fund follows the *EAFE index. This stands for Europe, Australia, and the Far East. The EAFE countries are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. If you surf through any of the financial networks on TV at night, you will see quotes on these exchanges, and those results affect the next day's I fund price. The I Fund also carries the risk of foreign currency fluctuations. The companies' stock prices in the EAFE index are expressed in the currency of each respective country and then converted to U.S. dollars to determine the value of the EAFE index. Thus, the value of the EAFE index will rise as the value of the U.S. dollar falls - and fall as the value of the U.S. dollar increases - about the currencies of countries with companies represented in the EAFE index. The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) is a proxy for the I Fund.
* On some days, the change in the I Fund share price reported by the TSP does not match the change noted for the Morgan Stanley EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) index, which the I Fund tracks. This happens when the Board's investment manager, Barclays Global Investors (BGI), reprices its EAFE Equity Index Fund, which the TSP invests, after closing the foreign markets. This process, known as "fair valuation," occurs when there are large U.S. market or currency movements between the time the foreign markets close and 4:00 p.m. when BGI's share prices are determined. Fair valuation ensures that traders cannot "market time" the I Fund by making investment decisions based on the "stale" prices, thus diluting the returns of other participants who invest in the I Fund. Because the EAFE uses the foreign market closing prices to calculate its values, its price change will differ from the TSP on those days.
Please keep your posts on the topic because your message(s) will probably be deleted when:
* Posting content that's off-topic to the subject of this Board;
* Posting statements that don't add value to the discussion; or
* When you violate any other posting term of the iHub User Agreement: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/complex_terms.asp
C Fund: Regression to Trend
P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes
American Bull NYSE Market Timing
DecisionPoint Market Scoreboard for C Fund
As of 12 Jul 23
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