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Even more so, the Tax credits of over 3 Billion would be worth at least 1.2 billion to a Buyer that needs to shelter some Income.
OPTI Canada offers the Cheapest entry into the OIL sands with Existing Production, and Approved Expansions, with an estimated 2 Billion Barrels of reserves.
Any National Co, or US Major will be lucky to pick up these assets on the Cheap, and Share in the Profits for 40+ years, with a Strong Partner...NEXEN.
LONG OPTI
Still loading OPTI canada.....own WAY too much of it now....but I think a Deal gets done in Early March......
Good luck
Been loading the Lows.....now hoping Chris gets this deal done in the next 90-120 days.....
I suspect he will.....great environment....nobody wants to be in CASH long term......OIL Sands Scramble in full effect.
Agree... adding is the greatest gift ever right now...
Took a Massive beating the last 10 days.....I continue to LOAD big time......
Thinking it gets a nice bounce back above $.70 in January myself.
Still Think a buyout wil occur in 1st Qtr. 2011
LONG
Yes OPTI is getting oversold, and if it goes much lower I`m going to step in and take it over :)
RSI @ 23.55 . Monitoring...
This article never gets old for me.....
http://www.infobarrel.com/Five_Reasons_to_Invest_in_Canada
Tells the Whole Story.....why I believe OPTI will indeed get Takenover in a buyout.
Van
WOW! was that a 2.2 MIL trade just now?
Good Article
Chinese companies stride on to M&A stage
Published: December 1 2010 12:17
The global economic crisis has done little to slate the thirst of Chinese companies searching for outbound acquisitions.
With the euro and dollar low and the renminbi strengthening, companies in China have stepped up their hunt for international assets and now almost every industry is on their radar.
So far this year, these companies have spent $51.4bn on overseas deals, up 40 per cent on the $36.8bn they spent during the same period last year, according to Dealogic. The bulk of those deals have taken place in oil, gas and mining as China moves to secure strategic resources.
Now, however, international dealmaking by Chinese companies is diversifying into all sectors, from automotive and high technology to consumer and luxury goods.
This spending spree is being encouraged by China’s government, which wants to see private companies, as well as state-owned enterprises, expand internationally to boost their global competitiveness.
For most, money is no object. They could outbid almost any international multinational in most competitive situations – especially at a time when chief executives are wary of overpaying for deals in advance of a full recovery. The bigger problem is whether they can win over their target board and shareholders.
The bidding war around Draka, the Dutch cable manufacturer, clearly highlights the issues many of these Chinese companies will face as they take their place on the global mergers and acquisitions stage. Last week, Xinmao Science and Technology, a Shenzhen-listed subsidiary of Xinmao Group, made a surprise all-cash €1bn ($1.3bn) offer for Draka, trumping an earlier offer from Prysmian, the Italian cable company, by as much as 20 per cent.
The move immediately drew scrutiny from investors who wanted to know how a company the size of Xinmao with a market value of just €400m would be able to finance a deal with a €1.5bn enterprise value.
To allay these doubts, Xinmao issued a statement saying it had the necessary financing from China Minsheng, the Chinese bank, to make the offer.
That is not something a company in a developed country would have to prove during an M&A situation.
Meanwhile, Prysmian is using the protectionist card to try to convince Draka’s shareholders that its offer is superior, albeit lower, to Xinmao’s. Paolo Romani, the Italian industry minister, said he would consult the Dutch government about keeping the merged group in Europe. “Maybe it is better to have the headquarters of a big multinational in a strategic sector stay in Europe instead of risking all the know-how [being] transferred to China,” he was quoted as saying.
The Italian company has also been making much of its scope to generate roughly €100m of annual run-rate synergies within three years of buying Draka.
Shareholders will decide whether money or strategic rationale will win the day, but Xinmao’s aggressive intervention shows just how determined Chinese buyers are in trying to secure international expertise and technology. As Liu Haiyan, senior vice-chairman of the China Federation of Industrial Economics, said on the sidelines of a Sino-European economic relations summit in Hamburg last week: “A number of Chinese companies came with us to understand how they can invest here.”
Inevitably, there will be many mistakes as they learn how to do M&A overseas. There have already been some clumsy attempts, such as Bright Food’s recent approach to United Biscuits.
The company, which is majority owned by the Shanghai provincial government, offered a high price to gain exclusivity with Blackstone of the US and France’s PAI with a view to buying the $3.2bn maker of Jaffa Cakes and Twiglets.
But talks crumbled when Bright Food tried to chip its initial offer down, forcing the private equity owners to reopen the sale process to other bidders. Bright Foods should have known better – this was its second attempt at an international acquisition, and its first also fell by the wayside.
The Chinese company spent more than a year trying to buy Sucrogen, the sugar and biofuels unit of Australia’s CSR, before losing to Singapore’s Wilmar International. If that had happened in the west, shareholders would be questioning the company’s M&A strategy and leadership. However, Bright Food is unlikely to be deterred from its plans for international expansion.
Difficult situations such as these explain why the bulk of Chinese companies may still favour taking minority stakes in western companies, or forming joint ventures with them, rather than risk their reputations in developed markets by launching high-profile bids that carry a significant risk of failing.
For instance, Fosun, China’s largest private conglomerate by sales, snapped up 7.1 per cent of Club Med, the holiday-resort operator, with relative ease. Agreeing not to lift its stake in the French company beyond 10 per cent for 24 months may have helped smooth negotiations.
Emboldened by that deal, Fosun is now planning a foray into Europe with a range of investments into luxury brands, small technology companies and the generic drugs sector to tap into the continent’s technological expertise and its highly skilled labour base.
The lesson is that Chinese companies should expand slowly unless there really is a big opportunity that is too good to miss. But if they engage in a full takeover of an overseas asset in the public eye, than they need to be prepared for the inevitable backlash. Especially if they cannot execute what they have promised.
No doubt..you'd have made out like a bandit.
I was like a deer in the head lights.
Agreed, I could've killed the Last Flip around .94..... but too scared to miss the Real Party when a Buyout comes.......
Pennies and Dimes look real ugly when you miss out on Dollar Bills.
I've been adding as well, but wondering if I should be dumping every time I see 2 white candles together.
Every time I see 2 white candles, there's usually a lot of red to follow.
Upside is still better than the downdside long term IMO
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2010/11/30/BP-invests-in-Canadian-oil-sands/UPI-14991291129726/
BP expanding in OIL sands..... lots of action in the Region as of Late
Not sure... but a 7.9 million trade went 4 minutes before close yesterday.... but not showing on some volume counts.
For me I just continue to load sub .80
Very happy to get the shares, and feel I will have a nice Surprise prior to Valentines day
quite the volume...somethings up
Moving higher now..... Hopefully someone making a play at over 10% on the open market.
Massive Pullback, but I will continue to Load, until this Puppy gets bought out.
Buyout is taking time, but I believe will ultimately be a HUGE home-run for shareholders in below $2.00.
OPC could be the one real deal. Board is starting to get some good info & @ least a few excited yet again. GLTA
cannot complain about the action here the past while.. glad I loaded up!
Reserve numbers, Net to Opti
Resources
In addition to estimating our reserves, McDaniel has estimated bitumen resources on all of OPTI's lands, including the Long Lake, Kinosis, Leismer and the Cottonwood leases. A summary of the additional resource estimates as at December 31, 2009, on a 35 percent working interest basis, before royalties, is shown below:
All volumes are millions of barrels.
2009 Raw Bitumen1.
Best Estimate
Remainder of Long Lake, plus Kinosis2. 320
Leismer2. 591
Cottonwood3. 517
Total net to OPTI 1,428
Great consolidation opportunity to get shares cheap again.
Filled another 4700 at .8048 today.... loading more.... 1.4 Billion barrels of Reserves.... this is going to get taken out soon IMO
freed up some powder for some .84s
getting ready for the next leg up IMO.
You got it.....still pretty solid Volume.... expecting buying to continue as we get closer to weekend.....chart is much improved now......
Should test $1.00 near term IMO
agree, they should pr something, volume is already double normal #s
Buyout Rumors all over the place... they will have to issue a PR after this trading day saying nothing is going on......too much action to ignore....
regardless of trading price, buyout will occur between $2.75 - $4.25 in my opinion. A $2.00 will NOT be accepted..... and it is a steal with OIL headed to $100+
Opti has Reserves of 1.4 Billion net to Them.......in this environment, it is WORTH HUGE $$$$$$$$$$$$$$, cause dollars ain't worth SH!T
hopefully the buyout news will wait till the stock is $4+
We got a winner here bro, up about 30% since Thursday's close.......i think a Buyout is much closer than others are thinking.
Nice Volume, but more importantly, the Major seller is Gone, and Buyers have stepped in a Big way. Expecting this to continue up to $1.00 near term, and then consolidate around .85-1.05 until the next PR
That is unless News has leaked that a Buyout is DONE !!?!?!?
LONG
V
nice volume today.
time to fasten the seat belt?
From another board
I actually think that NXY or OPTI will issue a PR in early December,detailing something like:
Dec 15th 2010
"The Long Lake project has achieved, and sustained Field Break-Even Production levels of 33,000 bpd for the past 4 consecutive weeks. The current Production numbers are reasonably higher than the Field Break-even mark, and due to the Rising value of Crude OIL, and steady production increases, we believe that the JV project will continue to operate with an increasing Net "Field Profit" for the remainder of 2010, and throughout 2011.
This is a major turning point in the Long Lake Project, as both companies are finally realizing both the sustained production growth, and overall maturity, that has been anticipated from the project throughout the past several months.
This marks a major Milestone in the Commerical viability of the Long Lake project moving Forward, and demonstrates the overall value of our proprietary OrCrude™ technology, and the potential of our vast 40-year reserves in the Athabasca oil sands region."
Reserves
OPTI has a 35 percent working interest in three oil sands properties in the Athabasca oil sands area, with Nexen owning the other 65 percent: Long Lake, Kinosis, Leismer and Cottonwood.
More than 2 billion barrels of recoverable bitumen are estimated to be located within OPTI's oil sands leases.
McDaniel & Associates (McDaniel), our reserves and resources evaluator, has prepared a report evaluating the bitumen reserves and synthetic oil reserves of the Long Lake leases effective December 31, 2009.
The McDaniel evaluation of our Long Lake and Kinosis lands (including Long Lake Phase 1 and Kinosis, south of the Long Lake lease) recognizes the impact of upgrading on the resources. Most of the raw bitumen will be upgraded and sold as Premium Sweet Crude (PSC™) and butane, and is shown as synthetic crude oil or butane reserves. Bitumen will be sold upon start-up of steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) operations prior to Upgrader start-up, and thereafter during periods of Upgrader downtime, and is shown as bitumen reserves. The following table shows OPTI’s working interest in the raw bitumen reserves and the corresponding sales volumes at December 31, 2009.
All volumes are millions of barrels.
Gross Sales Volumes
2009
Raw Bitumen Bitumen PSCTM Butane
Proven1. 194 8 149 3
Proven plus probable2. 711 34 553 8
Proven plus probable plus possible3.
780 35 35 9
Notes: 1. Proven reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proven reserves.
2. Probable reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proven reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proven plus probable reserves.
3. Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. There is a 10 percent probability that the remaining quantities actually recovered will be greater than the sum of proven plus probabe plus possible reserves.
Resources
In addition to estimating our reserves, McDaniel has estimated bitumen resources on all of OPTI's lands, including the Long Lake, Kinosis, Leismer and the Cottonwood leases. A summary of the additional resource estimates as at December 31, 2009, on a 35 percent working interest basis, before royalties, is shown below:
All volumes are millions of barrels.
2009 Raw Bitumen1.
Best Estimate
Remainder of Long Lake, plus Kinosis2. 320
Leismer2. 591
Cottonwood3. 517
Total net to OPTI 1,428
Agreed, I don't think it is necessarily at ROCK bottom, but I do think that once Field Break even is announced, and production gets above 40,000K (end of January, my estimation) that it won't really matter whether you bought at .70 or .60. However, as far as buying more Large blocks, since I am fully loaded, I will wait for another Dip.
After talking to a few more advisers, I think the Buyout could/should be more in the $4.00 range, which is an Awesome Return from these levels.
every time I look @ the chart, I wrestle with 2 issues...
1. for each white candle, I see lots of red
2. the last 2 years were't kind from start of Nov to ~ mid Feb.
Although I believe we are at bottom or damn close, I wonder about hitting low 60s (a nice hammer on the chart before we head north).
Definately not selling just a little hesitant to add.
Latest Analyst Opinion after Qtr. 3 results
from CI*C
"As the strategic alternatives process approaches its one-year anniversary, we believe that investors should hopefully see result by the end of the 2010.
Given the increasing interest in oil sands assets over the past 12 months, we
continue to believe that the review process results in a price well above OPC's
current trading range. Based on recent transaction metrics it is not hard to
justify a valuation for OPC in the $4+/share range"
"
Overall, operational results for the quarter came in line with our expectations
but financial results were weaker than expected. OPC reported CFPS (diluted) of
$(0.34) per share versus CIBCe of $(0.19) per share. The majority of our CFPS
variance was primarily due to higher-than-forecast purchased product costs.
We continue to rate OPC Sector Outperformer – Speculative, but have reduced
our price target from $2.00 to $1.70. Our revised price target is in line with our
revised risked NAV. The primary changes to our NAV were an increase to shortterm
capex (to reflect new steam capacity and well pads) and an increase to our
long-term SOR assumption from 3.3x to 3.8x. While it is still possible for Long
Lake to achieve a 3.3x SOR, the slow progress bringing down the SOR makes it
prudent to adopt this higher assumption until proved otherwise.
Overall, we continue to see positive risk/reward in OPTI"
"
Long Lake Reestablishes Positive Momentum
Bitumen production from Long Lake averaged 26,400 Bbl/d during the quarter
(9,200 Bbl/d net to OPC) – in-line with our forecasts. Production momentum
was strong going into the quarter but floundered in August and September due
to a number of setbacks (pipeline outages, lightning strikes, unplanned upgrader
downtime). October production has rebounded with month-to-date production
averaging 30,000 Bbl/d and current production of 31,500 Bbl/d. Nexen (NXYSO)
(operator) has not officially changed its 2010 exit guidance range of
40,000-60,000 Bbl/d but OPC acknowledged on its conference call that a more
realistic target is 35,000-40,000 Bbl/d.
SOR Still High But Trending In Right Direction"
"
Little News Regarding Strategic Alternatives
As was anticipated, OPTI had little to say in regards to its ongoing “strategic
alternative” and while all options are on the table, we think the most favourable
one for shareholders would be a corporate sale. As the strategic alternatives
process approaches its one-year anniversary, we believe that investors should
hopefully see result by the end of the 2010.
Given the increasing interest in oil sands assets over the past 12 months, we
continue to believe that the review process results in a price well above OPC's
current trading range. Based on recent transaction metrics it is not hard to
justify a valuation for OPC in the $4+/share range. OPTI's liquidity position is
$610 million, which provides sufficient capacity to see it through the review
process.
Nearing Field Level Cash Flow Break-even
At the field level, Long Lake burned through approximately $57 million of cash.
At oil prices of US$80/Bbl, we believe the project will achieve field-level cash
flow break-even at approximately 32,500 Bbl/d of bitumen with 70% upgrader
yields (27,000 Bbl/d with yields in the 70% range). We expect this level to be
achieved in the fourth quarter"
Good info on Asset Values of OPC here, and how they Rank with other Canadian OIL/GAS co's
http://www.infobarrel.com/Key_Fundamental_Statistics_for_the_Oil_and_Gas_Industry_in_Canada
Quiet today, with OIL now at $85, field break even is likely to occur any day, I expect an announcement around the end of the Month.
This should propel the stock back above $1.00, so I am loading around 5-10K more each week while OPC is cheap.
Bought another 15K today, .699 and .70. Almost fully Loaded for this Winter production and Strategic review.
Opti - Moving up today, thinking the shares will benefit big time from OIL heading to $100
guess you're 10k richer now!
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