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Bid in for 10K at .72, we'll see if they fill it. The weird thing with OPCDF is that it is only a proxy for OPC.TO, so the exchange rate is in play, but also they will route LARGE orders to the Toronto exchange at times.
Time will tell, happy to get more below .75 if it happens
Great link here to Full Opti DD when you get bored.... Hours worth of Great reading
http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.694621/messages?hl=en&tec=2&gvc=2&pli=1
totally agree
It may, but now we have a Field Break even PR on the horizon, probably in mid-late November depending on OIL prices....
I also think the Buyout/strategic review outcome will come without ANY lead time or Notice.
At this point a Buyout would likely be in the $2.75-$4.50 range. That have enough Black stuff and good technology I am confident it will get done.
i'm sitting on 15k @ present.
Looking at more only if we see a drop to the low sixties...somehow I just don't see that happening.
NXY - was much more Upbeat on the LONG lake Project than OPTI. Makes me think they are closing in on a Strategic Deal.
I will continue to Load down here..... with productino now above 31K, and headed toward high 30K year end..... Is still think it beaks 40K by year end, this should not go much/if at all Lower.
I have well over 100K shares now, and intent to build up above 150K before year end.
LONG
did you listen in on the conference call...it seemed promising and upbeat to me.
cant resist here... I think I will pick up a few more.. Great Value, and cannot see it going much, if any lower. If it does I will add, but the support here seems solid for now.
I'm in for a longer play.
There's definately value in this co.
thanks for the deletion, you know where to find me now!
Nice man, well I'm thinking we will have a winner here, may just take a couple more Months......
Thinking tomorrow will be un-eventful, but who knows.... I'll post a summary
What industry ??? Hopefully not Housing.
you bet!
I'm playing it the same way, albeit with a lot less shares than you own, as most of my finances are tied up in my own company.
If short term Horrible news comes out IE, production still well below 30,000, then yes. We will know MUCH more by opening tomorrow. Conference call at 5:30 am Pacific time, i'll be on it.
And no, I bought 10K more shares today because I think it is cheap, and should bounce back above $1.00 relatively quickly.
I just want to have plenty of reserve powder if it breaks below .60.
I am strongly betting they sellout to Chinese or Korean Company for between $3.00 - $5.00.
Great Return potential from .70 !!!!!
LONG
can you honestly see this hitting .59?
I have a hard time with that.
Mind you, I'll load more if it does.
it can't go much lower IMO..I wish there was a roller coaster close by that had a similiar drop as their chart
Waiting to buy a Bunch more after the Conference Call, could go either way, but I have a ton, and I'll help push it higher if the news is good.
totally agree...up or down it has the makings of a good trade.
Expecting either a Large Jump up tomorrow after Earnings call, or a Dip down to about .59.
I added another 10K this morning. I think this is reaching the bottom of its range. I'm in for the Long Haul and will continue to Load and accumulate, not selling any shares until a material Sale or partial sale of assets is complete.
Should be a good Swing trade here though......
V
Yep, big Buyer could offset current income with the Debt, and solidity 40+ years of Reserves.
V
debt is the new equity so you never know what price they could fetch,
I agree with you that it's worth much more than present levels.
True, could be higher, but lots of debt. Betting Chinese or Koreans get the deal done at a decent level.....make out like bandits.
it would be a shame to sell out for so little, but it wouldn't surprise me.
I expect a buyout within 120 days, at a level of $2.75-$4.50 myself.... but yes the underlying assets are worth much, much more than current level.
IMO this is worth at least 1.30 to 1.50
I'm not worried in the short term, I'll just add as it dips.
The candle chart is screaming for a jump.
I think this is a coiled spring.
My thoughts exactly. Hoping we stay above .65 during this Dip. I will be buying another 25-40K either tomorrow or Thursday, hoping funds arrive tomorrow.
3rd Qrt numbers may be pretty flat, but look for a OCTOBER number that is above 35K production, and this should bounce back quickly. Field Break even very close at today's oil prices.
V
You bet. Weird how Opti hasn't been moving either way along with the market... complete disconnect.
Thanks for the heads up Van... If we have news out later on in a week or 2, I`ll see how the markets are going to react :)
in @ .75... are we heading to .50?
IMO reward outweighs risk
A good Summary on why a Buyout makes Sense:
The environment we are currently experiencing in the Economy, bodes
very favorably toward a Buyout / Takeover of Opti Canada.
1. Rush and Grab of all Commodities - OIL, GAS, METALS, TIMBER
2. Rapid Coming Inflation - Fiat Currencies on the Decline World
Wide.
3. Increasing World Wide Demand for OIL.
4. Rising Risk of Instability in Middle East ---- Stability in
Canada.
5. Oil Prices Increasing - Headed back above $100 near term.
6. Corporations Gobbling up Smaller players for Proven Reserves while
the Equity market is Cheap.
7. Chinese Buying Oil Sands companies, both in Full, and Minority
Stakes.
8. Oil Sands production Costs are Low
9. Off Shore Drilling, negative Stigma in Media, BP repercussions.
Opti Specific:
1. Opti Canada has both Proven reserves, and Approval for vast
Expansion
2. Cost to replicate OPTI Canada's Projects is Vastly Higher than
Acquisition Costs.
3. Opti has Technology Specific to Oil Sands Extraction
4. China has discovered a Large OIL Tar field of their Own, need
Experience/Technology
5. Opti Canada's can be bought for a Fraction of the OIL reserve
Value.
6. Opti - Approaching breakeven Production levels
7. Secured Financing to continue operations downstream, minimal risk
of further Dilution.
8. Opti has acknowledged an Outright SALE is an Option.
9. Takeover would likely be Welcomed by Current Opti Sahreholders.
After long analysis I believe Opti will be bought outright for a price
between $3.50-$5.50 in the first or Second Quarter of 2011.
I look forward to hearing other views on the Company moving forward,
and speculation on different valuations on a buyout basis.
There are too many variables falling inline to ignore the Value this
company represents under the current Environment. To overlook the
Value Opti represents Long term to a Bigger player, with Large cash
reserves, is very naive.
LONG
OPCDF and OPC.TO
Interesting that the Market Makers have brought this down over the last 10 days. I will be keeping FRESH powder on hand to buy a Ton of shares if the News next week is negative.
With bad current numbers, the MM's will intentionally Tank this, ignoring the LONG term implications completely.
I intend to Load another 30K+ shares if they decide to take it lower.
I am in Opti Canada for the Long haul, and strongly believe in the Buy "LOW" sell "HIGH" philosophy.
Van
Another Great Article
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Toronto+equity+firm+looking+billion+dollar+oilsands+deals+client/3665457/story.html
Buyers ARE indeed out there, and OPTI is overly CHEAP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 28th should be an interesting update.
yes, bought down shares along this fall, but done buying for now...
Redhed, you still buying here ????? wondering if we see a bump heading into Oct. 28th update.
Another Article From Motley
If China's going to own part of my country I might as well get rich off of it
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October 12, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CHK , CMZPF.PK , OPCDF.PK
So China bought a big stake of CHK today. They probably would have bought a majority stake if they didn't have to face opposition from US politicians. In Canada, where we have a minority government that needs to tip-toe around everything, I would not expect such similar opposition. With the possible exception of the NDP. But they yap so much nonsense so often that no one listens to them when they actually have a valid beef.
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/11102010/6/finance-cno......
Right in the CHK article itself it says Opti/Nexen's Long Lake project is drawing interest. And at Opti's current rip-off price (sorry AllStarPortfolio - at least I managed to dump Opti while I was up in my real life portfolio) I don't expect that to be available for long. It was up 5 cents today on the pinksheets while we were having Thanksgiving here based on that one small paragraph in the CHK article.
My big play Compton Petroleum would be another easy target with its proven and probable reserves being in the mid $4's per share even as gas is under $4. The perpetually mismanaged and underpriced Connacher Oil and Gas would be another easy picking for the Chinese. There's a ton of others too. Feel free to list them in this blog.
I'm thinking of companies with a ton of reserves relative to their market cap - ie they are deeply discounted because they either have/had cash flow or operational problems - are tops on their list. Remember what China needs. Volume for the long haul. They don't need something that is a cash cow right now with an AAA bond rating. If that was the case they sure as shell wouldn't go after Chesapeake. They need something that's going to be flowing at a great rate 20 years from now. Long Lake, as well as Compton's and Connacher's assets are right up that alley.
Like I said if China's going to own a part of my country I might as well get rich off of it. Not just the Albertan oil barons. While the oil and gas bulls of our country put their investment dollars in such poor trading vehicles like HNU.to and HOU.to instead of real companies, our oil and gas assets are going to be bought at a fraction of their value by foreign interests because their stock prices are so opportunistically low. Another reason to hate those leveraged ETFs.
I am heavy loading this OIL play.... Too cheap here to ignore. Unless production falls, or more trouble occurs at Long Lake, this is easily a $2.00+ stock.
LONG OPCDF
Great Analyst opinion on Opti-Canada OPC.TO & OPCDF
This artical is dated August/11/2010...
Its from CIBC Analyst
Investment Thesis
This morning OPTI Canada (OPC - Spec - SO) issued US$100 million of
First Lien
Senior Secured Notes due in 2012 in addition to US$300 million of
First Lien
Senior Secured Notes due in 2013. The company stated that the purpose
of the
private placement is to maintain sufficient liquidity through the ramp-
up period
of Long Lake and to allow the company to continue with its previously
announced review of strategic alternatives. Overall, we view the
impact as
mixed. It is positive that the company has added to its short-term
liquidity, but
the fact that it had to do so signals that the strategic alternatives
process is
likely still a long way from completion.
While we continue to rate OPTI as a Speculative Sector Outperformer,
we have
reduced our 12- to 18-month price target to $2.10 from $2.40 (a
reflection of
the decrease in NAV). Overall, we continue to see positive risk/reward
in OPTI,
but note that it is clearly a high-risk investment given the continued
challenges
and high leverage. The company’s short-term share price performance
will
continue to hinge on one (or both) of two factors: 1) the ability to
continue to
ramp up production; and/or 2) the successful conclusion to its
continuing
strategic alternatives review process.
There is little doubt that OPTI continues to carry far too much long-
term debt
(hence the pursuit of strategic alternatives); however, its short-term
liquidity
remains in good shape following this morning’s issuance. OPTI now has
roughly
$590 million of cash and undrawn credit, which should be sufficient to
see it
through the Long Lake ramp-up even with additional well pads or steam
generation needed.
Financing Signals End Of Review
Process Likely Not Imminent
OPTI first announced a strategic alternatives review process in
November 2009.
The company cautioned at the time that strategic processes for oil
sands can
take a long time (citing Western Oil Sands, which took 18 months to
complete
its process). There has been very little public commentary surrounding
the
progress of the review process since it began. However, if a
transaction were
imminent, it is unlikely the company would have pursued today’s $400
million
financing.
While OPTI continues to evaluate all strategic options, we continue to
highlight
that the most favorable one for shareholders would be a corporate
sale. Being
nearly a year since the beginning of the process, we believe that
investors
should hopefully see the result of this “strategic alternative” before
the end of
2010. OPTI's liquidity position of $590 million provides sufficient
capacity to see
it through the remainder of any lengthy strategic review process.
OPTI's major
outlays over the remainder of 2010 include $80 million of capex and US
$110
million of interest payments.
Given the increasing interest in oil sands assets over the past 12
months, we
continue to believe that the review process results in a price well
above OPTI's
current trading range. Based on recent transaction metrics, it is not
hard to
justify a valuation for OPTI in the $4+/share range.
OPTI Gets Liquidity Reprieve; Strategic Alternatives May Still Be A
Way Off - August 11, 2010
4
Long Lake Production Continues To
Show Reasonable Momentum
Operationally, the Long Lake project continues to make progress, with
July
average production reaching 28,700 Bbl/d with an SOR of 5.2 and more
recent
production levels through 30,000 Bbl/d. While the project still has a
long way to
go to reach full capacity, the project does seem to be maintaining
reasonable
momentum and is quickly approaching cash flow break-even (at the field
level).
The company also stated that it is having to do some unplanned
maintenance
this month on its upgrader, which is resulting in a temporary
reduction in steam
injection and bitumen production. With this in mind, management has
said that
it should resume July production levels of 10,000 Bbl/d net to OPTI
within two to
three weeks. This operational update does not materially impact our
current
forecasts.
Although Long Lake is currently operating at an average SOR of 5.2
(still high),
we do note that mature wells (i.e. wells that have been on over a
year) are
seeing SORs of around 4 and are still trending down. The partners have
indicated they will add steam capacity for a cost of $150 million,
which will result
in a 10-15% increase to steam capacity. As previously noted, with this
morning’s debt issuance, OPTI will have no problems with the capital
spending
associated with a new steam generator.
This investment allows for two things: 1) it effectively makes Long
Lake capable
of producing at an SOR of up to 3.3 (vs. 3.8 previously); or 2) if the
Long Lake
project SOR is below 3.8, they would have the flexibility of selling
excess
bitumen into the market. Overall, it is a relatively low-cost
insurance policy and
increases our confidence of the project reaching full production
potential in the
2013 time frame. We are still modeling the project on the basis of a
long-term
SOR of 3.3x. Increasing the SOR to 3.8 would result in approximately a
$0.25
reduction in our risked NAV estimate (from $2.06 to $1.80/share).
OPTI Gets Liquidity Reprieve; Strategic Alternatives May Still Be A
Way Off - August 11, 2010
5
Change To Estimates/NAV
We have made a number of changes in our go-forward estimates for OPTI
on the
back of today’s US$400 million debt issuance and the associated higher
interest
expense. All of our changes to estimates are due to the company’s
increased
debt level, the most notable of which is our change in forecast cash
flow. We
have revised our 2010E diluted CFPS down 7% from $(0.88)/share to
$(0.94)/share, as well as our 2011 estimate down materially from $0.03/
share
to $(0.11)/share. With this change in cash flow, we now see OPTI
reaching
positive cash flow (on a corporate level) in 2012 versus our previous
forecast of
2011. Our free cash flow forecasts also took a hit, as we reduced our
2010
estimate down 5% to $(394) million and our 2011 and 2012 estimates
each
down 30% to $(158) million and $(132) million, respectively. The
impact of this
increased interest burden has also impacted our EPS estimates, as we
reduced
our 2010 and 2011 forecasts from $(0.90)/share and $(0.13)/share,
respectively, to $(0.95)/share and $(0.23)/share going forward.
We have made a number of changes in our NAV estimate, resulting in a
decrease to our risked NAV from $2.40 to $2.06. The largest change was
moving our NAV from year-end 2009 to year-end 2010E and incorporating
today’s debt issuance. Our revised NAV is summarized below.
As depicted, our net asset value for OPTI including Long Lake 1 works
out to
$1.16 per share under the CIBC price deck (US$85/Bbl long-term,
unescalated,
9% discount rate). The other two components of our NAV focus on the
company’s unsanctioned assets, which we provide on a risked and
unrisked
basis. The risked NAV provides a value for the specific asset that we
believe the
market should be willing to pay today or over the next 12-18 months.
OPTI’s
risked “unsanctioned” asset value is distributed amongst both Long
Lake 1 & 2,
in addition to the Leismer and Cottonwood projects.
We believe OPTI has approximately $251 million (approx. $0.89 per
share) of
risked unsanctioned value, bringing us to a total risked NAV of
approximately
$579 million, or $2.06 per share under the CIBC price deck. Our
‘unrisked’ NAV
values the company’s full contingent resources at $0.50 per Bbl (well
below
recent transaction parameters)
Short Interest as of Sept 15th = 551,388
Interesting..... accounts for the LOW shares price
Great post on Google
Attorney30
View profile
More options Sep 22, 7:10 pm
From: Attorney30 <john.mclaugh...@sympatico.ca>
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 19:10:04 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, Sep 22 2010 7:10 pm
Subject: Re: 949.5K at .90$
Reply | Reply to author | Forward | Print | Individual message | Report this message | Find messages by this author
Guys, it has been a pleasure riding this stock up - and riding it down
- with you. But, I think OPC's finest hours are yet to come ... and
it will come soon ... with 91 well pairs on production at Phase I of
Long Lake by year end + a telegraphed ongoing strategic review
process. That process has a stated goal of lower debt (i.e. closer
to profitability) or an outright sale to capture the "ton of value"
between the EV ($2.7 billion) of OPC and its real asset values ($4.7
billion). For simpletons like me, that $3.7 billion = $4.50 + per
share.
Big oil companies and sovereign wealth funds would love to buy a 35%
working interest in a 72,000 bpd operation, plus future expansions
towards 200,000 bpd. This is like an annuity stream of earnings
assuming $70 oil. Don't think OPC is unwanted by takeover suitors ...
it is being closely watched. The current production bonus is the
SOR's of under 2 on those 11 mature wells! That is a very positive
sign for oil industry exec's, and some of the best SOR's in any SAGD
project to date - and the SOR trend on existing and new wells is
down. I now firmly believe that Phase I will overshoot design
production sometime in 2011 - I think they hit 78,000 bpd and the
production increases per month will start to be in the 2,500 bpd range
at a time - probably starting in December, not the incremental 1,000
bpd we have agonized over to date. Those little production surges
will also tack on .50 -.75 cents to the share per pop. This stock is
now an .80 cent option - what a buy it is. I keep buying more and
more of this stock because the science is showing ultra low SOR's on
21 wells to date - and there is no other SAGD project with such a
massive number of well pairs - 91 are you kidding - even with lean
zones accross some well pairs.
You can't forget that potential oil major acquisitors focus on future
production potential + present production (to finance those future
costs) whereas many of you are looking backwards at what you paid per
share. They say, if we invest $3.7 billion today to generate gross
revenues of about $45 billion over 40 years at $70 oil, that's better
than the 2.5% yield on 20 year government bonds. OPC offers
compelling value. The canary in the coal mine will be that 40,000 bpd
production level, once that is achieved ... this stock goes into
play ... with a big time price relative to the current .88 cents -
multiples of that price is my estimate. Most of you own a lot of
shares - so you will be very rich indeed! We will have a big get
together at my house in Oakville to talk about all things OPC when
this happens in Q1. I have not changed my investment thesis at all -
because the fundamentals are even better now - just that the market
disagrees. This little company offers one helluva upside potential -
if the production trajectory can break through 40,000 bpd - which it
will.
Now, guys as Adrian inspirationally said to Rocky (i.e. Rocky II) upon
waking from her deep coma "there's something I want you to do for
me ... what ... WIN - WIN. Go deep guys, this little stock will not
let you down, way to much production potential coming onstream - NXY
will get it together - sleep well at night.
On Sep 22, 6:17 pm, ken <offer_r...@hotmail.com> wrote:
The environment we are currently experiencing in the Economy, bodes
very favorably toward a Buyout / Takeover of Opti Canada.
1. Rush and Grab of all Commodities - OIL, GAS, METALS, TIMBER
2. Rapid Coming Inflation - Fiat Currencies on the Decline World
Wide.
3. Increasing World Wide Demand for OIL.
4. Rising Risk of Instability in Middle East ---- Stability in
Canada.
5. Oil Prices Increasing - Headed back above $100 near term.
6. Corporations Gobbling up Smaller players for Proven Reserves while
the Equity market is Cheap.
7. Chinese Buying Oil Sands companies, both in Full, and Minority
Stakes.
8. Oil Sands production Costs are Low
9. Off Shore Drilling, negative Stigma in Media, BP repercussions.
Opti Specific:
1. Opti Canada has both Proven reserves, and Approval for vast
Expansion
2. Cost to replicate OPTI Canada's Projects is Vastly Higher than
Acquisition Costs.
3. Opti has Technology Specific to Oil Sands Extraction
4. China has discovered a Large OIL Tar field of their Own, need
Experience/Technology
5. Opti Canada's can be bought for a Fraction of the OIL reserve
Value.
6. Opti - Approaching breakeven Production levels
7. Secured Financing to continue operations downstream, minimal risk
of further Dilution.
8. Opti has acknowledged an Outright SALE is an Option.
9. Takeover would likely be Welcomed by Current Opti Sahreholders.
After long analysis I believe Opti will be bought outright for a price
between $3.50-$5.50 in the first or Second Quarter of 2011.
I look forward to hearing other views on the Company moving forward,
and speculation on different valuations on a buyout basis.
There are too many variables falling inline to ignore the Value this
company represents under the current Environment. To overlook the
Value Opti represents Long term to a Bigger player, with Large cash
reserves, is very naive.
LONG
OPCDF and OPC.TO
Production update coming in a few days, thinking it will be Good Numbers.... should bounce on that news alone, back above $1.20
Loaded 30K more today @ .81-.83
I believe in this Stock Long Term.... but think it will be Bought-Out before March 2011.
V
Loaded around 20K at .81-.835 today. Will be increasing my position to around 80K shares.
This stock will be Bought out in Early 2011 in my opinion.
V
Buying more around .80 this week. After doing some further analysis, I believe this company will be purchased in the 1st quarter of 2011 for roughly $4.50 per share.
From current levels of $.83 , that represents a 5X bagger. well worth the risk now that the company has operating Capital, and OIL is on the Rise.
Buying Thousands of shares FWIW.
Van
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