Every cruise line except RCL has same chart

Up and down testing the same highs several times for over a year now. RCL in the meantime, has been making persistent new highs since Sept 2022. Question is, if the cruise line stocks(outside RCL) haven't broken out to new highs for over a year, why would they start now ?

north40000- VIK vs NCLH

North, which do you like better, VIK of NCLH ? The PEG ratio is very close for both, at slightly less than .5, but the balance sheet is better with NCLH. VIK actually has a negative net assets of around $1.1B, which is 10% more liabilities than assets. NCLH has positive net assets, but only by around 5%. Thing is though, none of the cruise line companies have good balance sheets, as even the grand daddy Royal Caribbean(RCL) only has net assets of around 16% over liabilities. The PEG ratio for Royal is much higher than either VIK or NCLH, but still less than 1. One thing I wonder though is, why is every cruse line company outside RCL, way down from pre 2020 highs, while RCL is 35% higher. Is RCL that much better ?

north40000- thanks

for that info. I'll take a look at the other two you mentioned.

R59- VIK

I just looked at the balance sheet. As of June 30, 2024, they had around $9B in total assets, and $10B in total liabilities. Also they only paid 4% taxes, bu then again, Royal Carribean paid no taxes, but had a better balance sheet. https://ir.viking.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000950170-24-099699/6-k_-_q2_2024_vhl_financ.htm

R59- VIK

What do you think of this one. At quick glance, it appears analysts expect 40%+ growth next year, and the stock sells for a `17 PE gf. Seems a significantly better peg ratio than their peers.

Wadegarret portfolio- up 1% YTD/up 164% since Jan 22

Nelson- KINS

I had two buys on KINS today in Wadegarret. One was at 10:23 AM for 10K shares @ $8.45. One was @ 10:57 for 2000 shares @ 8:90. I just went back to the day chart to see if that corresponded with the actual price at those times. For my 10K purchase at 10:23, it exactly corresponded, and for my 2K purchase at 10:57, I recorded buying it $.10 less than the chart showed on that one. Both trades with times are recorded in Wadegarret, so you can check it out. That $.10 difference on my 2K purchase most likely was the fact that the stock went up $.10 while I was recording the trade.

Updated

IART 11000 shares

KINS 12000 shares

Cash neg $9837

Buy IART @ $17.30

Buy 1000 IART @ $17.30 = $17,300

I sold DAN @ $9.73 for KINS @ $8.45

I wasn't going to make the swap, but Wadegarret portfolio would be better off with KINS after the DAN downgrade today- despite the downgrade being heavily opinionated- and especially since KINS got so cheap.

Updated

IART 10000 shares

KINS 12000 shares

Cash $7463

Sell DAN @ $9.73/Buy KINS @ 8.90

Sell 12000 DAN @ $9.73 = $116760

Buy 2000 KINS @ $8.90 = $17800

Buy KINS @ $8.45

Buy 10000 KINS @ $8.45 = $84,500

Maybe KINS will go back to the $7s ?

Why would this stock be acting this bad after such glowing guidance, and news of the refi ? PE looking to go under 6 going forward now ! Every single stock I own is getting hammered. A day or two after I buy, they either get a downgrade or just go down 10% for no reason- unreal ! My portfolio is down 30% in 6 weeks.

DAN- I think the analyst downgrade is bogus

I mean here's a stock, which is already down 60% from recent highs, and he finds reasons that can't be confirmed for the downgrade of 40% below his last price target ?. I mean this is his opinion, based largely on recession risk ? Well Jeremy Siegel came out yesterday on CNBC, and said the economy looks fine, and he sees no recession risk going into 2025. I personally think this downgrade was bogus, and no other analysts feel that way. Price target on the stock remains $13+ on average.

R59- DAN, nice story !

SS- IART

I totally understand. I'm just saying that, unless they lower eps to $1.70 or less for 2024 & 2025, the stock is absolutely a killer buy at $17. I mean after listening to 2 recent webcast interviews with the CFO, I can see that she fully understands what needs to happen, and has a plan in place to clean up all quality control issues. Also, at least as of Sept 6(the last webcast), she said things were going as expected, which to me means that 2/3 through Q3, estimates are likely still on track. So in other words, we are getting a 9 week into Q3 preliminary update, so that's a positive. SS, maybe I'm too trusting, but I believe $16 or $17 will prove to the be a multi year low. Time will tell.

SS- IART

Do you own much of this one ? I mean, does the fact that the PE is now literally 1/4 of the average medical device manufacturer ie BAX, SKY, or TMO entice you to take more of a chance ? I mean to sell for 1/4 the normal PE, and the stock continuing to sell off, says that investors feel the company will fall apart even more from here, and maybe even go into bankruptcy. At least that's my take. However if Institutions felt that way, we wouldn't be sitting at an all time high in ownership. So it seems to me, the stock is being shorted by someone. Either way, are you tempted to own more of this, or do you think they lower guidance perpetually, going forward, till the valuation does make sense.

IPW- Posted $.03 non gaap adjusted for Q2

I believe the stock goes back to the $1 area.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ipower-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-200500624.html

luckygem- to fair value

Sometimes that's 10%, and sometimes 100%. In the case of KINS, I believe the stock is worth conservatively around $11- about a 22% upside. However I own a large position in IART instead because I think it's worth $40+. So that would be well over 120% upside for that one to fair value.

IART sells off all 100% gains again !

If I've ever seen a stock price trend & daily stock action suggesting bankruptcy, it's this one. I am stubborn though, as I believe this is pure manipulation, with record Institutional ownership, and the CFO saying the company will be on the comeback trail from here on out.

KINS- Why has it died ?

I don't get this one at all. Stock goes to $12 a month ago. CEO says growth is unreal, they get their refinancing, the PE is only 6 going forward, yet it stops in it's tracks for 4 straight weeks ?

updated for math

When I bought IART earlier, I was off by $8 against me. I had down that my purchase of 1700 shraes cost $102858, when it should have been $102850. Here are my updated figures

IART 10000 shares

DAN 120000 shares

Cash neg $6997

KINS- Anyone know why the stock negativity ?

Seems like everyone was loving it at $12, and now no one wants it at $9 ? The company is supposed to make $1.40 in 2025, so a PE of 6 seems cheap. I don't know what multiple exactly to give it, but I am thinking maybe 8 for the strong growth expected. I had said maybe 7 PE yesterday, but 8 seems conservative IMO based on the big boys getting a 10 ie ALL.

updated

IART 10000 shares

DAN 12000 shares

Cash neg $7005

Sell IART @ $17.81/Buy DAN @ $10.52

Sell 1500 IART @ $17.81 = $26715

Buy 3000 DAN @ $10.52 = $31560

Cash neg $4845

Nelson- HALO, thanks

Updated

IART 11500 shares

DAN 9000 shares

Cash neg $2160

Sell HALO @ $60.13/buy IART @ $18.00

Sell 1700 HALO @ $60.13 = $102221

Buy 5500 IART @ $18 = $99000

cash $3221

Updated

HALO 1700 shares

IART 6000 shares

DANA 9000 shares

Cash neg $5381

Buy HALO @ $60.50/Sell IART @ $17.85

Buy 1700 HALO @ $60.50 = $102858

Sell 6000 IART @ $17.85 = $107100

cash $4242

HALO- Anyone see any news- stock down 3% ?

R59- DAN

Thanks for that insight. I didn't realize DAN under delivered in 2024 vs analyst expectations. Well that changes my view a bit. I just wonder why analysts, after their mistakes this year, are still thinking $1.55 next year. However I realize that investors have to believe analysts in order for the stock to rally strongly. Tell you one thing Re, picking winners has sure gotten a lot tougher than it used to be In fact, after the last year, I'm starting to question if I can beat the current market.

R59- Welcome to my world

Rallies at some point every day, only to take all back and more 90% of the time seems to be the standard for my portfolio. Wadegarret was up over 20% for the year not too long ago, and now down for the year as of this week. I would surely think though that .5% lower rates would help the Russell 2000 and all the small caps, but who knows. Very frustrating.

KINS- Sold to buy DAN

Here's why. I must have seen KINS trade to near $10, and then go back to $9 at least a dozen times over the last 3 weeks. Then just two days ago on Monday, the stock went from $9,50 to $10.00, and sold off below $9 in minutes on a huge 100K+ volume. Now even though I was frustrated, I wanted to double check what KINS sold for historically. I went to Google, and did a thorough search. Turns out, there were many years, while the stock was in rally mode, that KINS only had single digit PE, around 7 going forward. So if the same were true here, on the $1.40 being guided for by the company, the stock would be worth $9.80. I am now feeling that $12 a month ago was not a sustainable price, as it was more like a 9 PE going forward. I have always said, you must look at peers to get to a valuation. I cite ALL(a large cap) as having only a 10 PE going forward, and with 20-25% growth expected in 2025. Now I had thought that because KINS has around 40% growth expected in 2025 vs 2024, that it deserved at least a 10 PE going forward, but I now have my doubts. On the other hand there is DAN...

First of all a much larger market cap company, and the company pays a nice 4% dividend. Also growth for DAN is expected to be 55% in 2025, which is even more than KINS. Also in their sector of auto parts, similar companies have at least a 10 PE, and sometimes 12. Therefore, I could see DAN rallying to the $!5-$!6+ area should they come through with analysts expectations for 2025 of $1.55 vs $1 for 2024.

Updated

IART 12000 shares

DAN 9000 shares

Cash neg $9623

Sell KINS @ $9.33/Buy DAN @ $10.40

Sell 9000 KINS @ $9.33 = $83970

Buy 9000 DAN @ $10.40 = $93600

Cash neg $9630

DAN- 6.5 PE gf, 54% eps growth gf, and

pays a 4% dividend.

R59- IART

Yes, I can see the stock seems to keep dropping to irrational levels. It's amazing to me the stock has dropped this far, to under a 7 PE going forward, based on the avg $2.47 the company gave as 2024 guidance in the Q2 CC. Re, while I generally get impatient with stocks after a month or two, I am hoping to hang in there with IART, as I feel it's already gotten to ridiculous levels(down 80% from the highs) & ridiculous valuation vs peers(and even to IART 25 PE in 2021) as well. I mean the stock is getting priced as if guidance for 2024 will be reduced in Q3 to around $1.80 or less, and stay there all during 2025. While I realize anything is possible, I plan to hold into Q3 earnings(which is rare for me), if the stock is less than $20 at that time. At this point, I plan to buy more, should the stock go to $!5 or less- and personally I feel someone is shorting for it to go lower at this point. IMO, this stock is being priced as if bankruptcy is a possibility, but unless the CFO has no idea or a complete liar, I am hopeful that the stock rebounds strongly in late 2024 and all through 2025.

I have a stock- 6.5 PE gf, 55% eps growth gf, pays

a strong dividend. I will announce tomorrow