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proto- I don't think $500 million is an absolute minimum. I think the LWLG team is looking to go big or go home. They know what they have. They would never settle for a $500 million buyout unless they know they cannot complete their mission. IMHO if LWLG has the holy grail platform of photonics then even without any revenue LWLG is worth at least a few billion in a buyout. Look at biotech companies without absolutely no revenue and often lots of debt and maybe only in phase 2 or 3 and no FDA approval who get taken out for many billions.
Here is an example.
Proto- if LWLG has the goods even pre-revenue LWLG should easily be worth more than Acacia Communications when it was acquired by Cisco for $2.6 billion. LWLG is not merely a bolt-on like Acacia but rather an industry savior. LWLG'S TECHNOLOGY IS A MUST HAVE.
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Richard- check your Ihub mailbox for messages.
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The Internet is approaching a breaking point.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/youtube-is-reportedly-reducing-streaming-quality-due-to-coronavirus/ar-BB11sfyA?ocid=spartandhp
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F2- We have to trust Lebby and his team. They are the best of the best in their respective fields. IMHO they will make this happen.
I think during and after this crisis CEOs of major corporations are going to take inventory of major problems facing the world and different industries. They will take steps to try to remedy these problems. Our health and the economy depend on it. The markets like reasonable certainty that these crisis' do not become the norm. IHMO, the Tier 1s will make a move because they have no choice. If the potential for the demise of the internet catches on in the media the markets will demand and reward the Tier 1s for taking proactive steps to address these problems. LWLG will be the beneficiary.
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Richard- I agree with your sentiments. I am sure the current pandemic is having the Tier 1s look down the road to the upcoming purple brick walls. LWLG has an elegant solution to maybe one of datacom's and telecom's biggest problems.
I quoted Intel's former CEO, Andy Grove in a post yesterday. IMHO this quote is what the Tier 1s are looking at.
"You have to pretend you're 100 percent sure. You have to take action; you can't hesitate or hedge your bets. Anything less will condemn your efforts to failure"
Remember LWLG's technology can potentially be used in medical diagnostics applications. Specifically in hand-held devices. What if LWLG technology enabled first responders and medical professionals to use hand held devices from long distance to determine if people are running a fever or if pathogens are in the air or on the person? What about low-cost on-chip optical spectrometers?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6766991/
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Today JPMorgan says to buy e-commerce stocks as ‘fear of public places’ accelerates online shopping shift. Also Cisco says Webex video-calling service is seeing record usage too, even as competitor Zoom draws all the attention. This is pushing data centers to their limits. IMHO this bodes well for LWLG's incredible technology. I am not sure the Tier 1s can wait another year or two for LWLG tech.
Here are some Andy Grove, former CEO of Intel, quotes:
"Not all problems have a technological answer, but when they do, that is the more lasting solution."
"Bad companies are destroyed by crisis, Good companies survive them, Great companies are improved by them."
"Leaders have to act more quickly today. The pressure comes much faster"
"You have to pretend you're 100 percent sure. You have to take action; you can't hesitate or hedge your bets. Anything less will condemn your efforts to failure"
"There is at least one point in the history of any company when you have to change dramatically to rise to the next level of performance. Miss that moment - and you start to decline"
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Richard-
I didn't realize that "the "Management Commentary" of today's PR was literally copy/pasted from the January 14th Shareholder Letter". I kind of feel duped by MZ Group. They made appear that this commentary was a new statement from Lebby when it was not. How much are they being paid per month or per year? Did Lebby, Karen or JM approve this corporate update?
If MZ wanted to contribute something to the LWLG story they could suggest to LWLG management to write a PR which would be distributed to the mainstream media that what LWLG is working on will help the datacom and telecom industries avoid a technological crisis 2 or 3 years down the road. If you get in front of a potential crisis you can avoid disaster down the road. With the ongoing pandemic and resulting economic crisis many potential investors will be looking to invest in companies that are working to avoid or mitigate future (within the next few years) crisis.
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Nice that Lebby told us that we are still moving forward. No warnings or words of caution given. 3 weeks ago I had expected substantive news before the 2020 PIC International Conference but now that it has been cancelled my expectations have been lowered.
Still hoping that one of the Tier 1s after watching the COVID-19 (BIOLOGICAL) crisis unfold determines that they should be proactive and acquire LWLG. The Tier 1s NEED an enabling solution for the datacom and telecom markets within the next 2 years before they hit a TECHNOLOGY crisis of potentially epic proportions.
We need to hear from Lebby. What's the state of the company in these extremely turbulent times? Only two months of cash left has me very concerned. What if LPC becomes illiquid and cannot fund us anymore? I hope Lebby and JM didn't pass up deals waiting for a stronger hand.
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proto- you never get off topic no matter what's going on in the world. A major asteroid could be hurtling towards earth and you would stick to the script. That being said I hope you are right about LWLG and that deal time is now.
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astro- yes so sad for humanity. This is a wake up call for all of humanity. We need to stick together (well at least 6 feet apart), marshal our resources and mobilize for what's ahead of us.
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jeunke22- I agree this crisis will force the Tier 1s to act.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2020/03/13/can-zoom-internet-handle-most-of-america-working-from-home/5042182002/
We need one really good deal to get this rolling. Right now I would be more than happy if one of the Tier 1s would make an outright offer to acquire LWLG for a mutually acceptable price. This has been playing out for years and LWLG keeps hitting speed bumps even ones no fault of their own such as the pandemic and the impending global economic meltdown. The Federal Reserve is basically out of bullets to stimulate the economy and the Federal government is going to have to spend several trillion just to keep the economy treading water. Now we also have to worry whether LPC our only source of funding can continue to be a going concern if liquidity dries up and the credit markets freeze.
We don't need a perfect deal but a good reasonable deal would be great. Also it would be nice to hear from Lebby about the state of the company given the pandemic and the steep economic meltdown. Have there been delays on the business end? Do we have a Plan B, C & D? And will those alternative plans delay any deals? Have there been off the record offers to buy the company? Has any of the Tier 1s asked if the company is for sale?
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It's extremely important to flatten the curve or we could see a mortality rate in the millions. Unless one thinks it's better to allow the virus to run it's course unabated even if it means accepting a much higher mortality rate and allowing the healthcare system to be overwhelmed.
IMHO social distancing and flattening the curve is the way to go.
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LWLG's incredible platform may be a perfect match for the field of biophotonics, the interplay of optics and biological matter. Imagine small LWLG enabled handheld optical sensors that detect traces of pathogens and viruses in the air or on the person. We may be entering a new era.
LWLG is fortunate to have a board advisor who knows a lot about this. LWLG's advisor Craig Ciesla is currently the Vice President of Advanced Engineering in the Research and Technology Development group at Illumina, the leading provider of DNA sequencing and array technologies. There he leads a team driving innovation in optics, microfluidics, electronics and nanofabrication.
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X- I know you have or had a large position in LWLG. Were you a seller or a buyer today or did you just stay put?
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X- yes this is time to be buying more LWLG. In the next 2 years these prices will be viewed as amazing for anyone who bought shares.
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jim= Look i've posted predictions in the past that did not come to fruition but I based those predictions on the facts I had at the time. I do not have an ulterior motive other than wanting LWLG to succeed so I see a nice return on my investment. I have posted my predictions, my hopes, my frustrations and my grievances on this board. But never have I tried to undermine this company or any other investors of LWLG. If you look at my posts over time I have never been lopsided in my adulation or fury with LWLG. While LWLG has tried my patience many times I still believe that the LWLG team will prevail and hopefully sooner rather than later.
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of course you are betting this goes lower. Short away mate. But why you need to post that here I have no clue. Are you worried?
btw of course I knew what Lebby meant fasten your seat belts in a different context. I was being facetious.
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KCC- They won't make open market purchases. Most of them have never done so before and won't do it now. They already have plenty of shares. Also don't think making some token open market purchase is going to get the pps to move much higher. The only way that's going to happen is if they announce a partnership. As JM said about 3 weeks ago it's going take longer than he would like but not terribly long. So was that suppose to mean maybe later this year or even next year? Add in the current market turbulence and the potential for a worldwide recession I'm not sure how that affects the timing of a deal.
Just remember LWLG made it through the financial crisis of 2008-2009. IMHO we are in a much better position today than we were back then. Maybe this is what Lebby meant when he said fasten your seat belts.
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2020 PIC International Conference has officially been postponed until sometime later this year.
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X- I hope we don't have another shareholders meeting where we are told more of the same about high levels of interest from prospective customers and deep in the engagement process. Last ASM one of their 12 month goals was a partnership but with the current market calamity I guess this could easily and justifiably get pushed much further down the road- the perfect excuse.
If prospective customers are salivating for LWLG'S technology why isn't anyone making an offer we can't refuse? They have several NDAs with different Tier 1s, how cannot at least one not try leapfrogging the others to have this technology? It just doesn't make any sense.
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PIC International Conference is still scheduled. The organizers are monitoring the COVID-19 situation closely. If the conference is cancelled I hope Lebby does not delay the release of any news he planned for the conference. I also hope that our potential Tier 1 customers are not curtailing CAPEX spending due to COVID-19.
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proto- the cats been out of the bag with him for a very long time. His only real purpose is to reflect his anger with you. He never posts anything substantive about LWLG other than the independent labs thing. We get it already.
However, that being said I think most investors are getting tired of hearing about LWLG's potential and are ready to see results reflected in the share price. LWLG and their potential partners have been engaged and testing for well over a year. JM said in his recent presentation that we have to wait longer than he would like but not "terribly long", whatever that means. So is that another several months or another year? At what point is LWLG designed-in? When can we expect to see our first deal? Right now so much is open-ended and this is very difficult for long time shareholders. If you invested in LWLG over the last 3 years then maybe another year is more than acceptable. But if you have been a shareholder for more than 10 years than you are more than likely ready to get the show on the road. I am still thinking and hoping that we get our first deal in the next 2 months. Maybe we get a developmental deal out of left field for one of the myriad of other applications enabled by LWLG technology (ie medical diagnostics-Illumina or LiDAR- Mobileye) which would provide money upfront and royalties.
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proto- I don't think he is a "real" investor. Just ignore him. His gripes are not very enlightening and don't add anything to the conversation.
IMHO we should be getting some good news very soon. Let the party begin!
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True but the COVID-19 mortality rate is 3.4% according to the WHO but it's probably less when you figure in all the undiagnosed cases. The seasonal flu's mortality rate is .10% and is either preventable or the symptoms are lessened by getting the flu short. COVID-19 so far appears to have a much higher mortality rate. Assuming that half the country becomes infected with COVID-19 with a mortality rate of even 1% amounts to over a 1.5 million death toll in the United States alone. So I wouldn't try to minimize the problem.
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Steve Cordovano formally of LWLG and the co-founder of BioAegis Therapeutics wrote this article about COVID-19.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/coronavirus-cases-hit-80370-heres-why-health-sector-so-unprepared.html?fbclid=IwAR2iyc49DmRYvKcwDbTHAPGaQBdhSyd_xCnfxBMLpLjcyJsrtu3Rd47iQrg
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This research group at Columbia University including Professor Lipson are probably completely unaware that LWLG's technology platform is almost ready for prime time.
https://sciencebulletin.org/team-discovers-new-way-to-control-the-phase-of-light-using-2-d-materials/
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So far the 2020 PIC International Conference is still on. Here is their current statement about COVID-19.
https://picinternational.net/health-statement
As the conference is almost a month away and due to the swift spread of the virus this could change.
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X-
"The Coronavirus will be interesting"
will it affect the timing of deals or conference attendance or cancellation?
We waited this long what's another year....
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proto- quantum optic applications were mentioned in the most recent shareholder letter as one of the several new markets outside optical communications where LWLG has seen an uptick of interest. Imagine the value of this application to companies such as Intel, Google, IBM and Microsoft.
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maheu- Siraj said the testing would take the "better part of a year". Well it's been over a year now and other than the ECOC update on data at 2000 hours there have been virtually no updates on the testing or advancements of package devices. So I expect in the next month we should get some exciting PRs about notable developments. We could be over a buck and maybe two bucks within the next month.
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proto-
"I look forward to my upcoming presentations and updating our shareholders on any notable developments." Lebby
IMHO Lebby does not go into these industry presentations empty handed. The last industry presentation was 6 months ago at the ECOC Market Focus in September. I don't think he goes to these presentations without more exciting data. Will Lebby's presentation include data from 5000 hours of testing and the ability to do 1 volt for driverless modulators? Those would be some notable developments.
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Think about this big things start small...a once in a blue moon opportunity awaits....welcome to the machine. Go LWLG!
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Proto- I believe JM said the same thing as ML but I need to re-listen.
But I did like this:
Designed-in = Locked-in
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X- how long between the small deal and the buyout? A year or two? Just your opinion. That's in line with JM's comment about expecting a lot of small and medium orders and then wham.
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$117 per share today for photonic supremacy tomorrow is not a bad deal.
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14 or 15 years ago Lehman said that LWLG could well be an $80 stock and that was when LWLG was a material only company. Btw I heard back then from other sources that Lehman did in fact place a value on LWLG of around $80. Obviously back then Intel and Google weren't willing to pay $80 or I think it would have been sold. Right now LWLG is not only a device company but also an incredible technology platform company. While I have only been a shareholder 15 years the Goetz family have been doing this for close to 30 years, maybe more. Remember this was, and hopefully still is, the family's baby. We are just going along for the ride.
Again this is from the poster M which he posted back in 2008 just around the time TDON became LWLG:
Yes it's like having a patent for silicon. Can you imagine if Intel would've had a patent on silicon 50 or 55 years ago? Every other chip company would've had to license from Intel. That would have been a totally different economic model.
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JL- I think it's a technology transfer with a whole lot of money upfront or it's the whole enchilada. I am hoping that 2020 is the year. Maybe by the shareholders meeting. But if it's in May that's only 3 months away. At this point I'd be happy with a small deal.
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