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Pete —
Without a massive run up from our current valuation —- any prospective buyout would constitute a massive failure in Missling’s not so hard to fathom strategy to stay under the radar (until he can finally flip his cards to show we do indeed have the straight flush) as a target to be scooped up by BP and to stay independent…..
Agree Raja— after Cassava & Acadia, Biogen, etc., line em all up, one by one, we will “settle all family business”….
But it sure beats the hell out it didn’t work in mice….
Abe —- Vacuum once we get through $30 level, algo’s and FOMO will kick in I suspect!
LOOKING FORWARD: It’s all about the upcoming Rett readout later this month (& PDD to lesser extent); the whole Biogen BS debacle will perhaps play out in coming months to our advantage regarding AD. But it’s irrelevant for now is how I see it —- for now it’s all about Rett: we get to finally see what’s behind the curtain!! If MOA is proven I believe we will start seeing heady valuation gains as the market will then begin to price in our relevance for all the other indications (including AD) that show application to our sigma 1 approach. Hopefully by the time our AD data is ready sometime next year, Biogen will have flopped and the market will be hot for the next generation AD treatment.
Hey Nidan --- Laughable as in comic or tragic, I lean towards viewing it as comical to help keep perspective and sane. But we've got to hand it to Biogen's CEO Vounatsos --- he played this game superbly given the hand he was holding --- 2's & 3's: he forced the FDA into a box and they blinked and folded! We can lament the process and vent and point to all the conspiracy theories but the facts on the ground are clear, is what it is: they got approved. Biogen sold it and for whatever reason(s) the FDA for the time being bought it and now owns it. My fear is that Missling and Anavex are holding face cards and aces but it's clear can't yet get into the building much less a seat at the FDA table. I think Bourbon's right when he points out that the Aussies are the best chance we have for timely approval for AD.
One critique I have of Missling after observing him at the helm for past 6+ years (gasp, long time) is he doesn't quite know how to sell this, more to the point, he is unwilling to "sell" it but would rather have the science and data speak for itself. Given that, let's see the Rett & PDD data as promised and see if our hand really is all face cards! C'mon Chris ---- Release this Kracken and verify that we truly do "got this"!
Bas --- It was a most curious and bizarre couple days last week starting with the Tuesday PR setting the stage for the mid day CC on Thursday. Also significantly contributing to the "noise" that Wednesday AH session was ---https://seekingalpha.com/news/3601318-compassionate-use-of-anavex-lead-drug-okd-in-australia --- from Seeking Alpha whom has yet to retract and of course the bizarre anti climatic conference call Q&A where the sleepy analysts just wanted to discuss phone calls and footlockers without asking the only question that mattered: Did the SAS constitute tacit approval from TGA??? Maybe Bishop was designated to ask the billion(s) dollar question but since he was waylaid by the weather there was no follow through and thus here we are once again, grinding through another week of endless speculation(s) from all the usual suspects.....
Could not agree more--- anything else ignores the 900 lb gorilla in the room! Same lame q&a that fails to address why we are all here in the first place --- cant they at least try to be a journalist rather than f'n lame analysts for crying out loud. We had seemingly significant news and were talking about Rett subset groups<,,,,,,,,,, gtfo!!!
Obviously the selloff for AVXL is OVERDONE at least regard to our prospects that our science will be validated. Given we have been battered for past 3 weeks almost as if as a proxy for major averages being discounted regarding P/E valuation I'm of the mind that we will catch a bid at some point and diverge from what's transpiring in the general market...
Didn't say they were selling off because of us (not yet) but more likely due to their own weakening fundamentals and seemingly puzzling and contradictory behavior viz a viz their alzheimer endeavors, as was pointed out on this board. My point was only that the market seems to recognize that what's good for them probably isn't good for us in the David vs. Goliath developing rivalry between them and us...
Biogen puking now as we trade up....hopefully this is a not coincidental positive reaction and bodes well.
Xena, as you have mentioned on this board, along with lack of treatmant options, the TGA surely must also be anxious to show the public they are "doing something" to address the demographic, economic and fiscal strain on their Health Care system from their increasingly aging society. Lack of treatment options and strain on the Aussie healthcare system are well documented, indisputable facts that auger well for an early approval given a reasonable opportunity versus the same as it ever was approach that has failed so miserably world wide. Hopefully Tom Bishop's curious mention of PA is a result of some scuttlebut he has picked up on, perhaps even from the company itself given he was present at the last company meeting.
I was unaware that the company had addressed and stated in the negative regarding applying for PA down under; hopefully they've been given the nod & wink that their application will be treated expeditiously upon its submission otherwise as Xena points out in another thread, What's the advantage compared to an NDA! I also think the Aussie authority is also under the gun given the demographic challenge and myriad pressures on Austrailian society from the ravage that their increasingly aging population is placing on their Health Care system. Earlier I stated that it would be negligent if Anavex hadn't submitted for PA but perhaps the real negligence would reside with TGD if they were oblivious to Anavex's efforts to provide for a not insignificant assist to ameliorate their society's demographic and fiscal challenges in caring for their aging population.
Anyways I'm hoping the real purpose of Missling's visit down under in October was to pave the way for an expedited way to get this show on the road. Makes sense that he would personally meet with them if something was being readied.
I've got to believe they have applied for PA given their concerted exposure running three trials for three different indications down under. To not apply would be negligent given their efforts there thus far. I'm curious about Missling's visit to Australia a couple months ago. No real explanation for that visit other than it coincided with the company's presentation to the Aussie Rett org. Seems curious to travel all that way for just that minor event.
FWIW, Cantor's audio site page states that the slides for this presentation will available shortly, 15 minutes before actual presentation.
NOT CANCELLED!! Listening now on call in, NOT CANCELLED......Missling giving his standard vanilla presentation like we've all heard before. Referencing "Cells" article and other research regarding sigma 1.
Let's not, given how fruitless that ended, LOL.
I second that sentiment, money talks, BS walks. They have known results for some time now so if Merck is serious we need to close lucrative deal, otherwise what a gigantic waste of time and resources this 4 year "collaboration" has been.
Fidelity
Good point Donja .... my observation is that the trading since announcement suggests that all the bad news for time being has been priced in and should we get the hold lifted we could in a heartbeat be in $ 2 PPS range pushing $3 where major resistance now lies.
But rising to what level? $2? $3.... Where is endgame before next dilution is upon us?
Nobody trusts this management, that's the long and short of it....safe to assume those who bought last offering are cursing becoming involved with us as no sooner does the offering close, the Hold is announced.
BTW, still no information on those buyers of (obviously they aren't touting their participation given events.) Hopefully the hold has been lifted and they are holding back that news so new team can benifit but since it's a joint hold with AZN, doubt it. So begs next question: how desperate are these new officers to join a company that has a clinical trial hold yet to be resolved?
Easy ---- you've also been here a very long time; wouldn't you like to see this end? Hope you are right and B/O does come eventually but what this news today signifies is that our can is being kicked further down the road AND ADXS is still trying to make it as a scientific Biopharma company when in reality they are holders of IP for an amazing technology but have yet to capitalize on this technology in 20 years. I still think all would be better served if we put the science in more capable hands and I thought the stars were lining up for this to occur but alas not to be.
I for one apologize Steve; this is most definitely not the "big news" I wanted to hear; it's actually the opposite. Let me summarize my sentiment: F'k me.
Copy that FBG, we both have been here for a ridiculouly long time and let's hope the endgame is in sight. I do differ with you regarding our ultimate value but am in full agreement that this needs to transition to more capable hands. Enough is enough, this technology is so much more than a company our size can manage to market and we have already seen DOC's missteps attempting to grow into a pharma in our own right; I see our current valuation as a judgement on management's record getting our science to market rather than a valuation of our technology. Hopefully Lombardo validates our judgement to hang in here all these years.
Hey GB --- also remember that in the month or so preceeding the offering but after the proxy whereby they were applying for authority to issue more shares, same Noelle had in direct conversations related on those on this board repeatedly downplayed the possibility of an offering in near future, At end of day she's mouthpiece and her boilerplate characterization of the secondary offering's reception by marketplace is what one would expect to hear and if parsed revealed nothing other than water is wet lip service. At end of day you are right howevet that we've all been reduced to blind folded investors guessing where is the light switch as it were...
Copy that Donja, little more than a week away ....
FBG --- Hate to speak for him, but --- not according to Cattdog who say's he once read it somewhere that a Bio doesn't necessarily have to disclose their ownership via standaard SEC reporting regs. Obviously they would have to do so on their own quarterly disclosures but as of their last quarterly report for 4q which they released on 02/01/18, the offering had not yet gone down.
Smoking gun proof that B/O is on the way would be if Amgen did indeed take down the last share offering. So far nobody knows who took down the latest offering and nobody here has even attempted to explain this huge missing piece of the puzzle. But for arguments sake let's assume they did purchase the 10m offering, that would give them 13m out our 52m outstanding, a full 25% ownership stake. If so from their point of view any negotiated purchase price is really just a negotiation for 75% of the shares as they would already own the remaining balance of 25% under this scenario. So for simplicity sake call it a $4B price tag only nets them $3B out of pocket and subtract out the $500m that they would owe themselves for the future licensing that they have agreed to --- we are talking roughly $2.5B net out of pocket. $2.5B to assume ownership of our science from A-Z and just as important, unfettered freedom to bring any/all of our technology to market in a more efficient manner than our management team has shown. If so it's really not that far fetched that we are in play for B/O! Here's hoping the "best bio stock company to work for in New Jersey" becomes the best bio stock investment in New Jersey.....
Hope you're right Catt as that would make their buyout equation and cost much more feasible but wouldn't they have to report this per SEC requirements? Were that true and the information public I don't believe we would be sitting here @ $1.64. The way we've traded since the offering suggests that the broker is still holding the offering and is hung out as it were to this point.
Who bought the latest 10m shares??? If we assume the reason DOC was let go was because he stood in the way of reasonable offers to BO, this other total mystery remains unexplained: who bought the latest offering? Anybody? The irony that we received the FDA hold almost immediately after the placement occured would obviously make any prominent purchases somewhat embarassing but legally they are required to fess up as it were yet nobody has done so. Thoughts?
Fbg --- so a stock swap? I've wondered if that could be a possibility? And of course at what ratio, 10 of ours for 1 Amgen @ $172.93 as of close today? Is that where we are, bartering the appropriate share swap ratio? Hopefully this pans out in some shape or fashion in the near future, really has been a long, arduous and strange trip.
If the science is what many of us believe then our management's ineptitude furthering said science is why we are priced where we are. Current valuatio doesn't reflect science's true value, it reflects our management's inability to bring it to market in an efficient manner. The science in fact if valid is worth many, many multiples of our current valuation. Don't believe Amgen will get us based on current valuation, other BP's would have to join bidding. Hopefully we are well along path to being sold to Amgen for $1-4B...
Hey FBG, I have thought that is a given since the hold was announced .... any significant deal or personel moves (any news other than Buyout) could only be announced after hold is lifted.
Iggy --- let's hope sooner rather than later. Any further dilution (s) at this point, at this level of valuation will be ruinous to current shareholders. Only self serving management can favor this path and current shareholders must realize further dilution (s ) are diametrically contrary to our best interest moving forward.
Z --- there lies the rub; What you are advocating is DOC's strategy. The fallacy of this thinking is we (may) indeed fetch more at a later date but unless we are able to license for real, meaningful upfront cash in the near term --- something which we have never been able to achieve ---- we will undoubtedly suffer through further dilution to get to your point into the future where we may be sold at $4B. At what point is our leverage as current shareholders best served? At this point where your estimate of $1.75B might yield a PPS in the $30+ range or in the uncertain future wherein a $4B+ buyout is achieved but if the outstanding share count is 100m + due to further dilution(s), where is the benefit in holding out for the current retail shareholder unless one constantly increases their investment risk to remain whole vis a vis the needed ongoing dilution(s)?
Copy that, agree that Petit is first class; let's hope the science is indeed what we all hope for, this in the end is the only crucible test that can salvage our investment. Also agree with your assessment of BOD, etc. ....
Not to mention that PETX has this on their back burner and even if inclined isn't strong enough financially to push aggressively forward.
Gantor ---agree that the optics were and still are bad because this momentous event was never explained by current management. Do you have any theory to explain what happened regarding O'Conner? I've yet to see anything factual or that rings true other than some of the anecdotal information that DOC was as surprised as the rest of us when he was canned. Here we are nearly a year down the road and we still don't know why he was pushed out; to understand that is the most critical piece of the puzzle to understand where we actually are now and more important what we can expect moving forward. I only recently came to subscribe to the theory that we are involved in buyout discussion(s) as the best explanation for O'Conner's dismissal but I'll be the first to admit that the current valuation certainly doesn't match that explanation.
Easy --- so why then was DOC fired if it wasn't his steadfast determination to go it alone and ostensively maximize our valuation & become a major pharma in our own right? The reason for his dismissal as you know has never been formally addressed or explained to anyone's satisfaction. I don't disagree that his removal and the vacuum created gave Adage the perfect storm to unleash their coup de gras tegarding their ongoing short attack. But again if DOC was removed because he wouldn't negotiate a sale then it fillows we have been in discussion(s) since his removal. Nothing else explains why he was so suddenly dismissed and the apparent lack of urgency regarding just about everything besides cursory lip service on the part of management since then.