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Your the one doing the BSing and playing armchair CEO. In your imaginary CEO' world , not only world you would have been able to raise all the money you needed at any time but also at a freaking premium to the market, no less. You talk a lot of meaningless fairy tale talk with no relation to reality. Everything is super easy to do when it's all done in 20-20 hindsight in your high flying imagination. Get real!
"a well rounded CEO would have raised a ton of money at $2 or $2.5 or when it was trading around $1.5."
Linda said they were still doing development work on Eden for optimization as of the ASM. That definitely means that they cannot already have completed all their needed testing and moved into an MHRA evaluation at this point in time. Though that was as of the ASM so the current status on finalizing design iteration 1 right now is unknown. Still, no way the fully optimized design, build, and test-out could have been done by now to have moved into any RA review status, imo.
The question of whether or not they get a full approval of manual design mfg technique is an entirely separate issue. A partial approval but requiring an additional trial before NW can start any commercial sales would not be fatal, but surely longs would be semi-fvcked in that case. Because that would mean no way for NW to demonstrate commercial viability yet, and the only chance for revenue in the near-future would be a licensing agreement but without the approval being a done deal, any partnership deal would be at shitty terms at best and not likely to even get anything at any decent price, yet they will still need a lot of $ that they don't have to run another ph 3 trial. The time required would be unknown but at least a 2-year delay and maybe longer. IMO that would make the current market cap too high for where we would be. I don't think that can rationally be denied. The stock is undervalued here but only as long as they are going to get the MAA approved for immediate use (even if MHRA also requires an additional trial to be done but meanwhile also giving NW the green light to start selling the treatment now).
Thanks Gary. I wasn't focused on use of Eden in any trials, though that would obviously be desirable. What I was objecting to was the random claim by negative Nelly investor082, that it will be years before Eden can be used in commercial production. That was baseless nonsense imo.
Here is the path to biologic equivalence according to LP at the ASM [highlighting below is mine]. What part of no clinical trial is required don't you understand? Please explain where you get your claim that a clinical trial will be required to certify Eden for commercial production.
What LP said about Flaskworks at ASM 1. LP said very clearly in the ASM was that they were not going to wait for Eden to be ready before they start commercial product shipments. 2. There will not be any clinical trial required to move from manual to Eden production.
You're making another negative WAG. Two in fact 1. Flaskworks is not going to be ready to be deployed in clinical trials for another year and 2.Commercial approval will likely take 2 years or more. I don't accept that a clinical trial will be necessarily be required to certify Flaskworks as a replacement to the artisian method. It's automation, not a complete reinvention of the process. I'm not an expert on this kind of engineering but what basis if any do you cite for your claim?
Your nervousness is understandable but haven't you been saying we're about to lose .30 since around the start of August? That being said, if we lose .support at 30 after holding this long it will most likely run down 2-3 cents before bouncing back to .30 as upward resistance. I think there is still an expectation that we will get a response from MHRA this month. If Sept comes and goes without that news it's not clear if the expectation just gets reset to October or not.
The stupidest thing I've been reading for days is a guy claiming to own a position yet joining the bashing brigade in constantly trash talking their own (claimed) position. Who does that?
Or e.g. 3) LP is confident of getting a large settlement out of the spoofing lawsuit and so she's not going to cut a large deal now when she anticipates getting large nondilutive $ from the lawsuit.
I'm not pushing this idea as likely, just saying there are other possibilities you have failed to imagine.
Laura Posner has already won one $B+ settlement in similar litigation IIRC. The decision to settle will not be hers to make but it has surely been discussed between Posner and our LP and I have a strong feeling that Posner is loaded for bear, not squirrel. For NW, even $100-200M of non-dilutive funding would help both the stock and the business but a number closer to $1B would really be a game changer. Of course until the MTD is squashed we've got precisely zippo in hand. Well maybe not completely as LP sold a few contingent settlement futures, probably selling some $ of settlement before the fact at a large discount.
That's just standard. The thing that really obscures the actual market is the fact that often the bids and asks are like icebergs. Meaning that more often than not we see a size of 2500 but that's just like the top part of an iceberg floating on the water and in fact there are thousands or tens of thousands more shares on the same bid or ask but hidden from view. Sometimes they show much larger size but it's more usual not to see the actual depth of the bids and asks.
The $ amount is not the issue. Rather, no OTC stocks are supposed to be reported.
Wrong. OTC positions are not reported on form 13-F. We don't know how many shares of NW SIO owns.
Are you Debbie Downer's brother by any chance?
I don't remember how long ago that was. He's still in the stock. It doesn't follow at all that if he didn't go activist he divested.
Pure bullshit. Zero evidence.
We had to fill the opening gap up..
Maximum pressure on the FDA can be achieved once DcVaxL is approved and is rapidly finding acceptance as the SOC for GBM in the UK. Any wait seems intolerable to some investors, but you can't always get what you want as soon as you want it. NW does need to get payment arranged asap to make that happen. Once the MTD is rejected, they will have good leverage for negotiating a quick settlement for several hundred $M with the MMs for working capital. MMs will have good reason to cough up $200M immediately vs resisting settlement indefinitely and being forced to pay close to $1B later. NW has the civil lawyer of the year to drive the settlement. If they can get the MTD and NICE payment agreement in place anytime soon, the stock will be trade north of $2 even before they apply to the FDA.. Much lower than longs, want but a lot better than .30, and very ready to move to the next level once they have the next phase 3 trials going and make the application to the FDA with strong leverage from having DcVax available at no cost to all UK patients even if still limited to numbers they can produce manually.
The whiners will whine ceaselessly in any case but I can see NW being very close to self-sufficiency via lawsuit settlement plus revenue in the UK, and being in reach of large profits in the US with reasonable expectation of FDA approval. IMO the reasonable expectation of FDA approval will drive a higher price once they apply.
What kind of cheese would you like with today's whine?
Have you found incessant whining to be a winning strategy in your life? How about trash-talking your holdings?
BTW, you had written "If Advent is sold by Toucan for shares of NWBO, then obviously Toucan will increase its holdings in NWBO." From your following post I gathered for the first time that what you had meant by the above may have been "If Advent is sold by Toucan to NW..." Read that way it starts to make more sense to me. But there would be some big problems with that premise, IMO. The value of NW shares could only be the current market value. It would be impossible to say what value other than the open market price would be fair, unless that were set by a 3rd party. You'd still have more or less the same problem of what value to place on Advent, where there is no market to establish that value. Even if a completely neutral party were to come up with a fair value for Advent, doubts could remain on whether NW got a fair deal from LP/Toucan imo, unless a very low value was placed on Advent, and there are some other owners of Toucan besides LP who would have to agree. All way too messy as far as I can tell.
That's OK. Your post I replied to didn't make much sense to me, so we're even.
"if NWBO were to acquire Advent that the purchase price should then be very minimal. Maybe $10 million or less? Something in that range."
Not hardly. First of all NW doesn't have even $10M cash available to buy Advent.
Secondly the Advent balance sheets to 2022 are available online and they show Advent's annual profits in the form of retained earnings. For 2022, Advent had $8M (I forget if that was GBP or usd equivalent) profit. Anyway as of even Y/E 2022 Advent had more than $10M in cash or equivalents. From generating $8M profit in 1 year, we can assume Advent's enterprise value is far more than $10M, unless most of that earning power is from contracts with NWBO which are severable with 1 year notice. We still don't have Advents 2023 financials online though they will probably appear shortly. The shorts have a valid point that Advent is making a lot of money and we don't know what other business they have besides NW, from which they are making so much. If all Advent's profit had come from NW, then the shorts would have a valid point that LP/Toucan made a lot of profit from their business with NW.
PM you seem to be more confused than I had thought you were! You wrote: "If Advent is sold by Toucan for shares of NWBO, then obviously Toucan will increase its holdings in NWBO." Just no. Who would tender new shares of NWBO to purchase Advent from Toucan? Cognate was bought out from Toucan by Cognate management plus VC partners for cash. Cognate still had shares of NW on their balance sheet from accepting payment in kind by NW for payables. The new owners of Cognate didn't want to own the NW shares so part of the payment by the new owners to Toucan and/or LP personally was fulfilled by the transfer of NW shares in lieu of cash from Cognate to Toucan/LP. I'm sure those NW shares were credited at the prevailing open market price for the same. And BTW they had already been owned by Toucan indirectly to the extent that Toucan had owned Cognate.
To the extent that Advent holds any shares of NW on their balance sheet, yes those shares could be used as partial payment for a leveraged buyout of Advent from Toucan/LP. But to the extent that Toucan/LP OWN Advent now, they already own any shares currently on Advent's balance sheet. Hence any such transaction would not increase Toucan's holdings of NW, rather the shares would go from Toucan owning them indirectly to their owning them directly.
That's a really dumb thing to say, friend, and I know you know much better. The ultimate value is in the IP, patents for the treatments and for the manufacturing techniques, and RA marketing permissions.
The cash flows for specials are unique to that. I'll certainly admit that has been screwed up in that NW hasn't made it transparent. But with commercial production, the cash flow will all appear on NW's P&L statements. No company makes it easy to figure out all the details just from those statements to derive everything like what their GMs are, but the cash flows will be more transparent once NW is selling commercially.
If you really were long, what would you be trying to accomplish by bashing the company every day? You have turned into typical example of the 'concern troll' species. Everybody has a motive for posting here. What's yours?
You poor schlubs have to work Sunday morning, too? Well I guess it wouldn't pay for your bosses to let you go to church. You might even find your conscience if allowed to visit God's house. That might make it hard for you to keep up your daily quota of ill-will and BS!
I admit I'm biased but I think the court's ruling on MTD is 'more overdue' at going on 3 months than MHRA's ruling on the MAA. Many expect the MAA ruling to come this month, but it could come in October or later. Hence imo we are more likely to get the MTD ruling first, especially the longer we wait for the MAA ruling. Either ruling will hopefully be enough to support a 30% or greater boost to the stock price.
The MTD decision especially, has the potential to come any day now, so the swing traders saying 'keep your powder dry' might well end up missing their best opportunity to go long here. JMO.
I think you are a bit too pessimistic about how easily the pps can be broken down. There has been good resistance over the last 5-6 weeks. Also you had said you expected some other catalysts - I'm pretty sure it was plural - before the MHRA announcement. Like an MTD decision. Do you think that gets less or more likely with each passing day?
In the words of Julius Caesar: Illegitimi non carborundum - don't let the bastards get you down.
Which paper is the atl-dc+poly data from? Do you have a link for free access? TIA!
Yes, it's pretty foolish to assign 0 value to all other products and markets, just as it's now foolish of the shorts to assume that the MAA won't get approved, and to assume that even when DcVax does get MHRA approval, NICE approval won't come for another year later if at all, and meanwhile, even with MAA approval in hand, NW should be assumed to never be able to get FDA approval. NW valuation should include a discount on the market value in the US. That would be P_fda * total US market * %_MP, i.e. probability of FDA approval times total patients for approved indications times assumed penetration of that market. Shorts assume NW will never get approved by the FDA, but if MHRA approves then certainly the probability of FDA approval is clearly greater than zero and if there is any justice in the world, NW's valuation needs to factor that in. P_fda ought to jump on MAA approval and jump to > 50% when NW applies to the FDA. Say nothing of assigning value to DcVax direct and to the value of the pipeline purchased from Roswell.
Yeah, you're right. Better we should all whine ceaselessly. When the going gets tough, the tough whine like babies is it? Very constructive, NOT.
So you think they will never get NICE payment large enough to make a profit. Noted. Why then are you wasting your time here saying the same thing repeatedly? What are you getting out of it? Do you need to get an ego boost every day by telling people again and again that they are stupid and you are smart? I don't get it.
level 2 page is also stuck on yesterday's close https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/NWBO/overview
What about by killing most of the tumor cells that express those genes? I don't know which publication Dstock got those charts showing the effect of dcVax+poly-ICIL from. That source must explain more about why those counts are drastically down.
Get real! "meteorological fall" is bullshit. It was only invented artificially for the purpose of easy collection of weather statistics. Since ancient times the seasons have been celebrated according to astronomy, .ie. the Earth's orbit around the sun, marked by the solstices and equinoxes. I find the throwing away of science and millennia of tradition, to say nothing of standard English language, to be abhorrent.
Astronomical fall starts on the autumnal equinox, between Sept. 21 and Sept. 23, and ends on the winter solstice, between Dec. 20 and Dec. 22.
These dates vary from year to year due to leap years and the elliptical shape of Earth's orbit around the Sun, with the autumnal equinox in 2024 falling on Sunday, Sept. 22 at 8:43 a.m. EDT.
Stop lying. Everybody but you know that it would be a serious offense if anybody leaked confidential info to you. They would be lucky if they only got fired and not prosecuted if they leaked and were found out. The authorities need to take confidentiality very seriously.
Doc, not that I know what is going on, but I don't think this your hypothesis is obvious at all. I think it's very possible that they can show a lot better longevity for a larger % of patients with the data from the trial with 40 patients treated with DcVax (UCLA version thereof) plus poly-ICIL, both as the placebo arm and also in the active arm with pemb-whatever the name is added, hence they can get higher reimbursement from NICE that is very well worth waiting for, and get it fast-tracked thru NICE to boot. 90% confidence level imo.
Ex, thanks for sharing those links!
Your linked Chinese mouse study from Nature raised questions that freezing/thawing can affect mouse DCs in ways that could limit their efficacy a little. But the 2 Journal of Immunological Methods articles concluded that frozen and defrosted human DCs work just the same as fresh ones. So the questions were asked and answered and the conclusions agree with what Linda Liau answered on more than one occasion, namely that the ATL-DC vaccine UCLA used in their trials is the same as NW's Dc-Vax. Have you got a problem with the good doctor?
The conclusions of the Science artules:
BTW, Flipper, Sully sucks at interviewing. I've seen him do this to Les as well as to Mike Taylor. These subjects have their stories to relate and Sully needs to just give them the floor. Instead he'll give them 30-40 seconds and then just as they start to get warm he'll cut them off with a needless and maybe even very irrelevant question on some random thought that popped into his head. Sorry for ranting on this but it's so damn painful to watch - worst interviewer ever!