augieboodicators

[augieboo]

SPX & VIX compared since Jan of 1990.





home.earthlink.net/~augieboodicators/vix-n-spx.png

[augieboo]

Yeah, volume has been low, but what there is has been pretty strongly positive since the beginning of Xmas week. I'm not sure what to make of it. Maybe the pros are in the Hamptons & J6P is sitting at home with a big glass of eggnog in an Xmas season buying stupor/frenzy?

[hk2]

The last week or so I've noticed that $TRINQ has been running rather low in spite of a weak Adv-Dec line. They are usually somewhat inverse of each other, yet lately I've been seeing both of them run well below 1.0, heck, I've even seen them both below 0.70 at the same time.

Rather atypical behavior.

[augieboo]

My custom OB/OS indicator is showing a weird pattern.
It keeps showing negative readings even though the market
been going up. I can't figure out why, and I can't
find any earlier period during which this happened.

Any ideas?

My guess is that it means the market is either about to blast
off, or that it's about to drop like a rock.

Here is the entire data set, all in one long string. Scroll to
the right for the most recent stuff.

WARNING: This post is about 27 feet wide. (G}

[augieboo]

Posted by: market_watcher
In reply to: augieboo who wrote msg# 6116 Date:8/3/2003 4:51:57 PM
Post #of 7534

After some noodling around in Excel, here is the system that I came up with:

1. Always buy the open on the first day after the signal.

2. If the first day is positive, hold another day. If the first day is negative, sell at the close.

3. If the first day was positive and the second day is negative enough to bring you back to breakeven, sell at the breakeven point. Otherwise hold until the end of the second day.

4. If the second day is negative at the close, sell at the end of the second day, even if you are above breakeven.

5. If the first day was negative but at the end of the second day, the trade would have been positive, buy at the open the third day.

6. If the third day is negative enough to bring you back to breakeven, sell at the breakeven point. Otherwise hold until the end of the third day.

7. If the third day is negative at the close, sell at the end of the third day, even if you are above breakeven.

8 etc. Repeat for 4th and 5th days.

The way I calculated it 307 trades are winners and 106 trades are losers and 49 stopped out. The losers and the stop outs are very close, but could be off by a couple of trades because of the stop loss calculation logic, which is a little messed up, but doesn't invalidate the whole thing.

This strategy turned $1 into $139 over the time period in question. That $139 slightly overstates the return because the the stop loss messed up the return on 17 trades. In the spreadsheet, I put X's next to those trades. If you want to mess around with the logic to fix it, you can calculate the historical performance more accurately. If I were to guess, I don't think it impacts the overall return by more than 10%, so you could decrease the overall return to $126 and be in range of the actual return. At its peak the COMP had a $20.36 return. Average return is 1.09% per trade. Average holding time is 3.17 days. I'll post the spreadsheet on my site:

http://www22.brinkster.com/marketwatcher/

I hope that is along the lines of what you're looking for. I think it's a good system because it gets you out of bad trades very quickly and gives you a second chance to jump in if a trade turns around. Another nice thing is that it's making it's all-time highs now, so you know that it works in a bear market as well as a bull.

[ajtj99]

Just stopping in here to hurl <G>

[augieboo]

Long RRI @ 4.09 on triangle breakout.

Hard stop @ 3.81 (yesterday's high).

[All Mtn Ski]

Hey augieboo,

I just wanted to commend you on your charts, they are beautiful and always amaze and inform.

You're dog's cute too. <g>

Wish my shorts were looking as nice. <BG>


A-M-S

[augieboo]

I feel like I'm out of synch with this market action, so I'm going completely, 100% cash and plan to take the weekend to regroup.

Sold BBH @ 95.30

Order in to sell USPIX as well. (It will be at a small loss from yesterday.)




Posted by: augieboo
In reply to: augieboo who wrote msg# 42 Date:3/21/2003 11:59:35 AM
Post #of 43

Well, I had a bad feeling about yesterday's decision by the time I went to bed last night, and by the time I got up the morning Ms. Market was on the move once more, so I bought some BBH @ 94.48 as a partial hedge vs the USPIX.


**********************************************************
Posted by: augieboo
In reply to: augieboo who wrote msg# 41 Date:3/20/2003 3:27:59 PM
Post #of 42

Looking at charts today I think this move is getting long in the tooth, at the least on a short term basis. Thus I am for the most part stepping aside for a day or two.

Closing all long stocks.
Closed 2x NDX profunds.
Keeping only the -2x Profunds, which amounts to about 25% of the account.

[augieboo]

Well, I had a bad feeling about yesterday's decision by the time I went to bed last night, and by the time I got up the morning Ms. Market was on the move once more, so I bought some BBH @ 94.48 as a partial hedge vs the USPIX.


**********************************************************
Posted by: augieboo
In reply to: augieboo who wrote msg# 41 Date:3/20/2003 3:27:59 PM
Post #of 42

Looking at charts today I think this move is getting long in the tooth, at the least on a short term basis. Thus I am for the most part stepping aside for a day or two.

Closing all long stocks.
Closed 2x NDX profunds.
Keeping only the -2x Profunds, which amounts to about 25% of the account.

[augieboo]

Looking at charts today I think this move is getting long in the tooth, at the least on a short term basis. Thus I am for the most part stepping aside for a day or two.

Closing all long stocks.
Closed 2x NDX profunds.
Keeping only the -2x Profunds, which amounts to about 25% of the account.

[augieboo]

Added very small position in AETH @ 3.05 plus fees

*************************************************************

Posted by: augieboo
In reply to: augieboo who wrote msg# 38 Date:3/19/2003 1:47:23 AM
Post #of 40

Added very small positions in SSTI & VTSS today.

SSTI @ 2.70
VTSS @ 2.46

Probably early and/or late with these, but the positions are VERY small, so I'm not going to worry about it.


**************************************************************
Posted by: augieboo
In reply to: augieboo who wrote msg# 37 Date:3/13/2003 2:09:12 PM
Post #of 39

Position Update:

Dumped RMBS @ 13.08, a small loss, because:
[1] It's looking wedgie, and if it's going to retrace most of today's move up I'd just as soon reload.
[2] Internet connection acting like shit today, and I don't want to get trapped.

Put in order to switch UOPIX to USPIX, which means I'll have about 52% USPIX and 48% ULPIX in my Profunds section.

Still holding MIR, as it is chugging slowly upward.

[augieboo]

Added very small positions in SSTI & VTSS today.

SSTI @ 2.70
VTSS @ 2.46

Probably early and/or late with these, but the positions are VERY small, so I'm not going to worry about it.


**************************************************************
Posted by: augieboo
In reply to: augieboo who wrote msg# 37 Date:3/13/2003 2:09:12 PM
Post #of 39

Position Update:

Dumped RMBS @ 13.08, a small loss, because:
[1] It's looking wedgie, and if it's going to retrace most of today's move up I'd just as soon reload.
[2] Internet connection acting like shit today, and I don't want to get trapped.

Put in order to switch UOPIX to USPIX, which means I'll have about 52% USPIX and 48% ULPIX in my Profunds section.

Still holding MIR, as it is chugging slowly upward.

[augieboo]

Market Analysis & Charts

Overall Market View: #msg-837554

NDX & COMP
Analysis of intraday charts: #msg-837574
Daily charts: #msg-837564 #msg-837539
Comp/NDX comparison Chart #msg-837680

BOND CHARTS:
TNX (10-year yield) #msg-837711
TYX (30-year yield) #msg-837723

SUMMATION INDICES: NASI & NYSI #msg-837790

What got into the dollar today? CHART #msg-837702

[augieboo]

Position Update:

Dumped RMBS @ 13.08, a small loss, because:
[1] It's looking wedgie, and if it's going to retrace most of today's move up I'd just as soon reload.
[2] Internet connection acting like shit today, and I don't want to get trapped.

Put in order to switch UOPIX to USPIX, which means I'll have about 52% USPIX and 48% ULPIX in my Profunds section.

Still holding MIR, as it is chugging slowly upward.

[augieboo]

2nd Correction on Note to Self:

Cost bases including commissions to buy:

MIR = 1.54
RMBS = 13.19

[augieboo]

Corrected note to self:

Cost bases including commissions to buy:

MIR = 1.54
RMBS = 13.31

[augieboo]

Note to self:

Cost bases including commissions to buy:

MIR = 1.54
RMBS = 1.31

[augieboo]

Swapped USPIX (-2x NDX) for ULPIX (+2x SPX) in Profunds.

Profunds now 1/2 UOPIX (+2 x NDX) & 1/2 ULPIX (+2 x SPX)

Still holding MIR & RMBS. ):

RALLY YOU PIECE OF CHIT MARKET!

[augieboo]

Added to RMBS @ 12.48. Basis now 13.11.

[augieboo]

Went flat in Profunds by swapping 1/2 of USPIX shares for UOPIX shares. A 4% one-day gain is just too nice to mess with.


Still holding RMBS & MIR, but getting impatient.

[TREND1]

augie
I think you are in a race.
Take a look at new board
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1609

Question?
Who will post more charts on 3/10/03 ?

Larry Dudash

[augieboo]

Swapped UOPIX for USPIX on Friday. Still holding RMBS & MIR.

[augieboo]

I see lots of squiggles. {g} What am I supposed to see?

But seriously, one can't tell all that much from a 5 minute chart. Here's my impression on the dailies on those two stocks.

NOVN: Looks perhaps a tad over done.

RNBO: Looks like a very happy chart with a chance to bust a pretty serious move from here. Judging by the levels of the RSI & Stochastic compared to their levels at the last big move up, and also taking into account an apparently successful breakout from a falling wedge, I would guess that this thing could make another move similar to that previous big up spike.

DISCLAIMER: I've never looked at these stocks before, so far as I know, so I'm speaking from EXTREMELY limited knowledge.

Here are the dailies.

[brainlessone]

hey augie look at the 20 day 5 minute charts of rnbo and novn

set the lower indicator to accumulation/distribution
and

volume

like what pops up in medved, prophet.net
what do you see

[TREND1]

I think I made a mistake with PLUS 100 board
Very close to cutting my losses with this PLUS 100 Board.

Larry Dudash

[wahz]

Its shows +1 on the 100 plus board. I am filing a protest with the UN Security council!

[augieboo]

"HEEEEYY!!!! how did Augie get a plus one!!??"

Beats me.

[TREND1]

I do not know if augie is +1, 0, or -1
And I am not sure augie knows(g)

Larry Dudash

[wahz]

HEEEEYY!!!! how did Augie get a plus one!!?? I don't see where he posted that he went long, and bullish. I PROTEST!!!!!!

<VVBG> rotflmao...(yeah I laugh at my own silliness)

[augieboo]

Long RMBS @ 13.64
Full position for a swing trade.

[augieboo]

Cancelled that UOPIX/USPIX swap. 120 Minute charts bottoming, so I think it might be premature.

[TREND1]

Translate please
into long - short - market
do not keep up with fund names

[augieboo]

Swapping UOPIX for USPIX at the close today. Still holding MIR.

[augieboo]

Went flat in ProFunds by swapping half of USPIX position for UOPIX. Going to sit out whatever happens this weekend.

[augieboo]

#msg-798733

[augieboo]

Position Update

Got busy and missed a few days' worth of updating.

2/24/03
Long BEAS @ 9.97 (Full Position)
Long QLGC @ 34.36 (FP)
Long SMH @ 22.90 (FP)
Short via USPIX @ 52.79 (Triple Position)

The theory here was to play the longer term
down trend via USPIX while hedging against
the ST up trend via BEAS, QLGC, SMH.

******************************************

2/26/03
Stopped out BEAS @ 9.55 (Loss 4.2% )
Sold SMH @ 22.89 (Loss $0.01)
Sold QLGC @ 34.18 (Loss 0.5%)

Note to self: That theory didn't work too
well, at least insofar as BEAS is concerned. ):

2/26/03
Long MIR @ 1.40 (2nd 3/5ths position)

[boo boo]

Augie

You still holding MIR? Will you double down and if so, what price?

[augieboo]

Long MIR @ 1.63 for a swing trade based on longer intraday charts.
-- 8% of account
- remainder cash

[augieboo]

Earlier Efforts at Intermediate Indicators

Charts current as EOD 02/14/03

************************************************************

Nasdaq 40-Day Rate of Change, 1985-2003

This is just a long-term look at volatility in the Nasdaq as a whole.



Nasdaq 20 & 40 Day Rates of Change, 2000-2003

A closer look at the volatility of the Comp.




************************************************************

Percentage True Range, 2000-2003

This measures, in percentage terms, the average distance between the daily close and each day's "true range." For an explanation of Average True Range, (of which this indicator is a variant), see http://stockcharts.com/education/What/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_ATR.html



************************************************************

Intermediate-Term Indicator Based on the Percentage of Issues Advancing.



************************************************************


A Different Look at Rate of Change

The problem with ROC is that it is so volatile. So I created an indicator which takes the rate of change of a 50-Day Exponential Moving Average of price, rather than price itself.

As you can see, this has two major results:

[1] The indicator is much smoother, which means the signals are much easier to read correctly. (:

[2] Because the indicator has been smoothed quite a bit, the signals arrive much later than they otherwise would. }:

I think of this one as a rear-view mirror. It's not worth much as far as forcasting the future goes, but it can tell you whether that bottom or top that passed a little while ago was a big one or not.






*************************************************************

[augieboo]

Sold QCOM & QLGC. Now flat.

 
 QLGC 
 In    33.45 
 Out   34.97 
 =========== 
 Gain   1.52 (+4.5%) 
 * 
 QCOM   
 In    33.79 
 Out   34.85 
 =========== 
 Gain   1.06 (+3.14%) 
  
 

Nap time. (Little doggie woke me up a few hours too early this morn. Now he's snoozing peacefully.)

[augieboo]

Sold everything except QLGC & QCOM Friday.

Current Position Distribution:

 
 Cash:    79.35% 
 QLGC:    10.30% 
 QCOM:    10.35% 
 * 
  
 Most Recent Trades:   
 * 
 JNPR 
 In    9.04   
 Out   8.59 
 ========== 
 Loss  0.45 (-5%) 
 * 
 QQQ 
 In    24.23 
 Out   24.16 
 =========== 
 Loss   0.07 (-0.3%) 
 * 
 QLGC 
 In    33.45 
 Last  34.56 
 =========== 
 Up     1.11 (+3.3%) 
 * 
 QCOM   
 In    33.79 
 Last  34.70 
 =========== 
 Up     0.91  (+2.7%) 
  
 

[augieboo]

Bought QCOM @ 33.80

Updated Position Distribution:

 
 Cash     1.7% 
 JNPR     7.4% 
 QLGC     9.9% 
 QQQ      7.1% 
 UOPIX   37.0% 
 USPIX   26.0% 
 QCOM    10.2% 
 

[augieboo]

Current Positons:

 
 Cash    11.9% 
 JNPR     7.7% 
 QLGC    10.0% 
 QQQ      7.2% 
 UOPIX   37.9% 
 USPIX   25.5% 
 

All numbers approximate.

[augieboo]

AVERAGE TRUE RANGE, (PERCENTAGE), 1991-2003




MDA Thread #board-1320
augieboodicators #board-1545
Trading Info #board-1220
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[augieboo]

COMPOUND STOCHASTIC -- HISTORICAL CHARTS














MDA Thread #board-1320
augieboodicators #board-1545
Trading Info #board-1220
Like my charts? Join StockCharts! http://www.stockcharts.com

[brainlessone]

hey augie all it has to do is hit about 7 and we go up again

[augieboo]

Thanks, I worked hard on that one to get it just right. Just round enough so that it fits the Platonic ideal of roundness, yet not so round that it seems inorganic. Sort of a Yin/Yang balancing act. I was up all night.


MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
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[hk2]

Nice dot.


Jim

[augieboo]

.


MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
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