augieboodicators

[augieboo]

Earlier Efforts at Intermediate Indicators

Charts current as EOD 02/14/03

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Nasdaq 40-Day Rate of Change, 1985-2003

This is just a long-term look at volatility in the Nasdaq as a whole.



Nasdaq 20 & 40 Day Rates of Change, 2000-2003

A closer look at the volatility of the Comp.




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Percentage True Range, 2000-2003

This measures, in percentage terms, the average distance between the daily close and each day's "true range." For an explanation of Average True Range, (of which this indicator is a variant), see http://stockcharts.com/education/What/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_ATR.html



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Intermediate-Term Indicator Based on the Percentage of Issues Advancing.



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A Different Look at Rate of Change

The problem with ROC is that it is so volatile. So I created an indicator which takes the rate of change of a 50-Day Exponential Moving Average of price, rather than price itself.

As you can see, this has two major results:

[1] The indicator is much smoother, which means the signals are much easier to read correctly. (:

[2] Because the indicator has been smoothed quite a bit, the signals arrive much later than they otherwise would. }:

I think of this one as a rear-view mirror. It's not worth much as far as forcasting the future goes, but it can tell you whether that bottom or top that passed a little while ago was a big one or not.






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