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Bullish Morning Doji Star
• Direction: Bullish
• Type: Reversal
• Reliability: Strong
• After an established down trending day-one is a long red day
• Day-two is a doji where the open and close are equal.
• Day-three is a blue day
Bullish Morning Doji Stars are a rare reversal pattern that offers one of the strongest bullish reversal signals in the Forex Market. Morning Star formations are characterized by a continuation of a bearish trend followed by a Doji, reflecting uncertainty in the strength of trend.
Up to day two we actually have a Doji Star formation, a moderate strength bullish pattern. After the day of indecision, the trend reversal is confirmed when a rally creates the large bullish candle. The stronger the move up on day-three, the stronger the reversal signal. Watch for additional bullish price action in the next few days.
In FX this formation practically identical to the bullish Abandoned baby. In non-FX markets candlestick analysts traditionally look for gaps to signal the strength of the Morning Doji Star pattern. Gaps between the close price and open price are very common outside efficient FX markets, since exchanges are traditionally limited to very short trading periods. Because Foreign Exchange trades 24 hours, gaps are very uncommon and need to be ignored in identifying Morning Star patterns.
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Conclusions
Even though many different charting techniques are available, one method is not necessarily better than the other.
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SEC Filings Explained ~ Form 3
Form 3 is an SEC filing filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to indicate a preliminary insider transaction by an officer, director, or beneficial (10%) owner of the company's securities. These are typically seen after a company IPOs when insiders make their first transactions. After a Form 3 is filed, future filings of the same nature are filed under Form 4 (standard disclosure) or Form 5 (annual disclosure).
Trading Range
Trading ranges can play an important role in determining support and resistance as turning points or as continuation patterns.
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The break of support signals that the forces of supply have overcome the forces of demand.
Moving Averages - Double Crossovers
Two moving averages can be used together to generate crossover signals. In Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, John Murphy calls this the "double crossover method". Double crossovers involve one relatively short moving average and one relatively long moving average. As with all moving averages, the general length of the moving average defines the timeframe for the system. A system using a 5-day EMA and 35-day EMA would be deemed short-term. A system using a 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA would be deemed medium-term, perhaps even long-term.
A bullish crossover occurs when the shorter moving average crosses above the longer moving average. This is also known as a golden cross. A bearish crossover occurs when the shorter moving average crosses below the longer moving average. This is known as a dead cross.
Moving average crossovers produce relatively late signals. After all, the system employs two lagging indicators. The longer the moving average periods, the greater the lag in the signals. These signals work great when a good trend takes hold. However, a moving average crossover system will produce lots of whipsaws in the absence of a strong trend.
There is also a triple crossover method that involves three moving averages. Again, a signal is generated when the shortest moving average crosses the two longer moving averages. A simple triple crossover system might involve 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages.
The chart above shows Home Depot (HD) with a 10-day EMA (green dotted line) and 50-day EMA (red line). The black line is the daily close. Using a moving average crossover would have resulted in three whipsaws before catching a good trade. The 10-day EMA broke below the 50-day EMA in late October (1), but this did not last long as the 10-day moved back above in mid November (2). This cross lasted longer, but the next bearish crossover in January (3) occurred near late November price levels, resulting in another whipsaw. This bearish cross did not last long as the 10-day EMA moved back above the 50-day a few days later (4). After three bad signals, the fourth signal foreshadowed a strong move as the stock advanced over 20%.
There are two takeaways here. First, crossovers are prone to whipsaw. A price or time filter can be applied to help prevent whipsaws. Traders might require the crossover to last 3 days before acting or require the 10-day EMA to move above/below the 50-day EMA by a certain amount before acting. Second, MACD can be used to identify and quantify these crossovers. MACD (10,50,1) will show a line representing the difference between the two exponential moving averages. MACD turns positive during a golden cross and negative during a dead cross. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) can be used the same way to show percentage differences. Note that MACD and the PPO are based on exponential moving averages and will not match up with simple moving averages.
This chart shows Oracle (ORCL) with the 50-day EMA, 200-day EMA and MACD(50,200,1). There were four moving average crossovers over a 2 1/2 year period. The first three resulted in whipsaws or bad trades. A sustained trend began with the fourth crossover as ORCL advanced to the mid 20s. Once again, moving average crossovers work great when the trend is strong, but produce losses in the absence of a trend.
United States Natural Gas (NYSE:UNG)
Funds can also provide a way to invest in natural resources. This investments gives a replication of natural gas prices , after expenses. It will try to follow the prices of natural gas by buying futures contracts on natural gas in the coming months. As with all funds you need to keep an eye on the total expense ratio before investing.
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