Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[PioneerUniverse8]

Daxxi practice locator tool for Miami area is now showing 52 locations compared to 26 just yesterday. Whatever they did to gain traction in Miami seems to be working.

[MrMILL]

Well, thank you for the insight. I didn’t know that! 🤦🏻‍♂️

[go seek]

$280M guidance… of course management will reaffirm at least $280M.

[Fred Kadiddlehopper]

NYT article: Market flooded with fake Botox
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/25/well/live/counterfeit-botox-risks.html?unlocked_article_code=1.nU0.5syV.RaMIYrMIOJG_&smid=url-share

[go seek]

If you really want to know about Revance Therapeutics and Daxxify, no way is better than to do your own research.

[MrMILL]

New to this board…Can someone tell me, this stock was not 97% higher only because of the Dax product, correct? Am I wrong? Is this company betting the house on this product alone?

[soma2022]

thank you for the feedback boraborak. So it sounds like you and your contacts have not tried Daxxify so you have no year over year purchase comparisons?

I too am hearing about multiple sales rep departures (in the 10 to 15% range) and territory reshuffling and that new account growth and growing existing accounts had been slow but hearing that they are starting to gain some traction since the Daxi price cut and rebates this past quarter. The 40K rebates that are expiring this month should have helped to get new patients to try Daxi and for Revance to be able to market directly via text in the future to these 40K new patients. This program should be extended IMO. Even $25 to $50 helps to move the needle and reduce friction points in getting clients to transition to Daxxify.

[randychub]

Another 1500 shares for me.

[alertmeipp]

Would be extreme bullish if RVNC re-affirm their at least 280mm sales guidance given Botox's weakness.

We can all hope. I bet Abbv would love to buyout RVNC even for 4-5 billions as then they will have a better product to push. But obviously, they can't due to competition concern.

[DewDiligence]

1Q24 Botox sales by indications and geography: #msg-174309306.

[Emannow]

AbbVie just released Q1 2024 numbers and US Botox was down 4.9% YOY and Juvederm was down 13.9% YOY! And that is with the Botox price increase!!! Take out the price increase and Botox is down 7 to 8%!

Allergan is losing market share in aesthetics! Now we know why so many directors and VPs are leaving Allergan! I would expect to start seeing layoffs and open jobs go unfulfilled! This loss of market share will continue as both Botox and Juvederm are 20 yr old products and patients are migrating to new better products!

Any practice still using only Botox and Juvederm is on a sinking ship! Allergan will continue to raise prices to make up for lost market share and squeeze profits from injectors.

[alertmeipp]

Are you not concerning that your business will be taken away sooner or later by your competitors that offer the new and better product?

Seems rather naive on your part to not trying harder on this as it seems you agreee Daxxify is the best and cost less?

[biotech_researcher]

Soma, thank you for taking the time post your informative information.

[mrwilson31]

So owning a few spas verses reading information on IHUB should give them enough information that Daxxify is what they should be offering?

Read that again. You are stating that he/she should run their business based on the information from a message board? 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

How is your Med/Spa or clinic going with toxins?

[edcoolidge]

Honestly your story has always been suspect. You have the information provided here to know that Daxxify is the best toxin when injected properly and can make a practice more money so you should be enthusiastically offering it. You only showed up on this board after Daxxify was approved and have shown at times a complete lack of understanding about toxin injection. You claim to own practices but there's no way to verify that. I can't prove it's false either but frankly I think you're not truthful and have ulterior motives.

[boraborak38]

Always good posts and info soma. In my circles (and I own practices), I am not seeing adoption of Daxxify. I asked another well known owner in my area what she is seeing and she said:
“ The daxxify buzz kind of died. I haven’t heard or seen anything on the groups good or bad. Revance has “restructured” and let go of some positions recently.”
So….i think it depends who you ask. It’s no secret that their sales force has been upended. And the relationships that take time to build have stalled. I saw something similar a few years ago with the lawsuit against Evolus. Sales staff got turned upside down when they were essentially frozen from doing business. And so it took a long time to rebuild that.
I don’t hear people/patients asking for Daxxify yet either. You can call me some shill for another toxin company but this is the truth. And the things I have said the past couple years have been pretty accurate.
I’m still long some shares around $5.50 FWIW

[edcoolidge]

That explains why Galderma shill and perpetual loser CosmeticMD was working overtime today to tag my posts with clown emojis. The majority of patients who try Daxxify with a skilled injector stick with it. That's bad news for those desperate to maintain the status quo.

[soma2022]

The strategy of lowering the price and changing the messaging to acts fast and lasts and the $75 rebate to get injectors and patients motivated to try it appears to be working. What strategic change on price, messaging, rebates, etc would you make? This is not a marketing issue. This is a getting word of mouth out issue and my 800 patients are acting like Daxxify ambassadors in my geography. Do you feel that the product is not gaining traction in well established accounts?

[alertmeipp]

>> Foley is making a good decision!!

Finally. :) All while stock keeps making all time low almost daily.

[alertmeipp]

Ms.Dtox - If you don't mind, where about are u in the org chart? Are you still with the company?

You seems to hate the company or at least its strategy. You have already lost a ton on the stock. Have you tried to raise your concern to management?

[Emannow]

Had a discussion today with a friend who has connections with RVNC, Evolus and Galderma. RVNC had so many Daxi promotions in Q1 that the reps from the other companies were complaining about the average price of a vial of Daxi at $240 to $250. The RVNC reps were moving Daxi into new accounts and the competition was upset with the low price!

In retrospect, this is EXACTLY what needs to happen which will motivate new injectors to put Daxi into new faces. The aesthetic patient is looking for the best spend for their dollar and Daxi will give this patient double duration, quick onset and improved skin tone as compared to their normal toxin! RVNC needs to continue these Daxi price promotions for.a few quarters and grow the base of Daxi users! For once, Foley is making a good decision!!

[Ms.Dtox]

(I don’t see an edit button) I meant to say, there is no effective strategy in place.

[Ms.Dtox]

Hi think the price change and messaging HAD TO HAPPEN and believe course corrections do not happen quickly when there is an effective strategy in place for Daxxify commercial launch other than what’s already been mentioned.

[alertmeipp]

The current price is so low, any buyout will need sky high premiums. I think many will be upset with a buyout price of 10 bucks

But $10 is 300 premium

[edcoolidge]

Great post soma! In the hands of "authoritative and expert injectors" Daxxify is clearly the best toxin on the market. This of course dovetails with what I've seen on social media and heard from my own contacts. Unskilled/unscrupulous CosmeticMDs/PAs/nurses who "couldn't quite figure it out" or "didn't want to take the time and effort to" figure it out lest they lose their kickbacks have been less enthusiastic about Daxxify. I am not a practice owner myself.

[Tomdontworry]

This does not apply to Pharma. Each of the mega pharma companies put aside billions per year (per company) for strategic acquisitions (companies in p2, p3, post approval early stages). It is a cut throat competition to stay ahead of the pack, or become the next PFE, BMY. Now, RVNC is opex heavy, but find 100m in synergies (legal, hr, finance, c suite, hq, etc) and you got yourself a break-even earner purchase and potential future pipeline…

[alertmeipp]

Yes higher rate will reduce demand for speculative stocks. But I just don’t think it’s a significant factor

[alertmeipp]

Yes and no insider buy (maybe in blackout) and no activists interested as well


I still hope to see some 13G or F soon at current valuation

[Tomdontworry]

Daxi is best in class and costs similar, if not cheaper, than botox. There is huge growth potential in Aesthetics and Therapeutics markets, and dont forget the RHA fillers AND the new lip flip (no more fish lips??) campaign. My guess wall st lost faith in Mark’s failures, on top of non-existing IR dept. Now what i dont understand is why big pharma (Pfizer failed to acquire Allergan) has not yet bough this co for 2-3B.. every pharma co has huge budgets each year for acquisitions, and with the right leadership this company can be profitable sooner than projections with blockbuster potential… what am i missing?

[edcoolidge]

These big ticket items are much more sensitive to financing rate and inflation.

Guess what, automakers have actually done well despite higher rates and record prices. TSLA is a meme stock so we can leave that out of discussion. There has been a slowdown in growth of EV adoption which is unique to that sector sure but the other EV companies you mentioned are also unprofitable so are suffering the same fate as RIVN and RVNC. Interest rates are impacting the desire to own speculative stocks more than they're impacting the underlying business. This is my last post on this as it's obviously tangential.

[girlfriend]

It's screwed up because you can't really factor in the shorts. The shorts feed off small bios and small caps when the markets are down or there is no news no updates no positives....the company could put out some kind of PR to calm every body down if the treatment(s) look like they will produce revenues and take market share. Just my take but the shorts can destroy a stock price.

[alertmeipp]

It’s down because EV was hyped up and now people realize EV is not for everyone. R1s and R1j are not cheap, they cost about 70k usd after the recent car. These big ticket items are much more sensitive to financing rate and inflation.

Even Tesla is down 30 ytd

Nio xpev fisker lucid all down even more. So for rivn , its a sector thing

For RVNC, Eols is doing well, Botox sales was growing fine. So it’s not even a sector thing

[alertmeipp]

Yes those who subscribed to the recent secondary already down like 50 percent

Doesn’t look good for Barlays at all

It’s odd. The purpose of the raise was to clear overhang. The stock drops half after the overhang is removed

Like how screw up is that

[edcoolidge]

Why is RIVN down? Because their expenses have grown faster than their revenue. Because they're a newcomer in an industry with established brand heavyweights. Because the market is unsure if they can become profitable before they go bankrupt in a fearful interest rate environment. But if you've been following the story closely you know that their products are excellent—some of the best available—in a business with an increasing TAM. It sounds a lot like another stock we talk about frequently here, which might be why their YTD charts are nearly identical.

[alertmeipp]

I know what u are saying actually but I just disagree that it’s a general market thing. The drop is very specific to RVNC, same for RIVN

[vinmantoo]

As you all know, I am a long time injector of Daxxify since Prevu Dec 2022. I launched conservatively to a small portion of my practice, and since that time, Daxxify has taken over 80% of my own NT business (not including my nurse injectors). I used to be Botox only. This is the biggest revenue shift that I have seen in my practice in 20 years.

I am also seeing gradual adoption of Daxxify from many of my nurse injectors the past 3 quarters and we did over 6 figures of Daxxify purchases (over 400 vials) in Q1 2024. The march $75 rebates did help to get us to buy more Daxxify and to entice clients to try Daxxify. This represents over 500% growth over the Daxxify vials I used in Q12023. Although I am still the largest single injector of Daxxify in my organization, my nurse injectors, as a group, exceeded my total vials injected in Q4 2023 and have continued to grow their percentage of Daxxify used within my company.

Soma, thanks so much for your input. It is very encouraging to RVNC investors as they watch the stock price continue to sink. You should message Ms.Dtox before she sinks further into depression over RVNC as her big losses and tell her not to lose hope as it may yet turn into a gain.

[edcoolidge]

I never said RVNC is down because of interest rates and inflation. Revance is down because they're a loss making company and they've grown expenses faster than revenues. The market has turned extremely negative on companies like that and punished them unduly on days where rates have moved higher. RVNC is essentially priced for bankruptcy at this point, as is RIVN, and many other companies, some of whom will go bankrupt, and many of whom will not and the market will have been wrong about.

[alertmeipp]

Thanks soma2022 for such a valuable posts

[alertmeipp]

If you still think rvnc is down 60 percent ytd mainly because of inflation and interest rate, I think we have to agree to disagree.

RVNC is not even in an highly inflation or rate sensitive sector

[Monksdream]

RVNC new 52 week low

[alertmeipp]

As you said, RIVN is in a much more capital intensive market. Plus they have to scale up much bigger in order to compete on cost. Currently, their gross profit is still negative. So very different story

[Emannow]

One of the offices I am friends with uses approximately 350 vials of Daxi a quarter. This practice was not part of the Daxi Prev program. The doctor does 95% of the toxin injections and there are 3 PA who injected the other 5%. The PAs have not converted patients to Daxi and are still using Botox. The doctor has converted 98% of the patients to Daxi and now has more availability on the schedule since the toxin patients are get more duration. The doctor is also making more profit per day/month using Daxi. Also, this office is now 100% RHA and no longer uses Juvederm.

It took the doctor about 3 months to master the Daxi injection technique. 98% of the patients stay with Daxi and do not go back to Botox.

On another topic, rumor is that both Daxi and RHA achieved their sales numbers in Q1.

[marthambles]

I bought more earlier, but with a very tight stop loss.

[edcoolidge]

Don't be ridiculous. I already posted about one, except they have billions in cash.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174304081

[soma2022]

Call For Doctors/Med Spa owners on this Board to Share Daxxify Sales Data

As you all know, I am a long time injector of Daxxify since Prevu Dec 2022. I launched conservatively to a small portion of my practice, and since that time, Daxxify has taken over 80% of my own NT business (not including my nurse injectors). I used to be Botox only. This is the biggest revenue shift that I have seen in my practice in 20 years.

I am also seeing gradual adoption of Daxxify from many of my nurse injectors the past 3 quarters and we did over 6 figures of Daxxify purchases (over 400 vials) in Q1 2024. The march $75 rebates did help to get us to buy more Daxxify and to entice clients to try Daxxify. This represents over 500% growth over the Daxxify vials I used in Q12023. Although I am still the largest single injector of Daxxify in my organization, my nurse injectors, as a group, exceeded my total vials injected in Q4 2023 and have continued to grow their percentage of Daxxify used within my company.

I am seeing a 54% Daxxify adoption rate within my practice (7 of 13 nurses who trialed it in Q2/Q3 2023 are now ramping up sales in a meaningful way = 10 or more vials a month of Daxxify purchases). 25% are ramping up at a slower rate and 25% tried it and kind of gave up and couldn't quite figure it out or didn't want to take the time and effort to. This implies that roughly 50% of experienced nurse injectors will take 6 to 9 months to get comfortable with their injection outcomes and sales pitch before blowing it out, these nurse injectors tend to be our more authoritative and expert injectors - the type of nurse injectors that clients trust implicitly with 10 or more years of experience. These nurses are the heavy lifters in the NT industry that typically do 40 to 70 vials of NT each month. They likely account for 50% of the US NT market. They are my heavy hitters and largest profit centers. Moreover, the transition to Daxxify is making our organization more profitable with higher client satisfaction rates.

Emmanow, Edcoolidge, Boraborak38, others: would you be able to share some of your Daxxify purchase data for the board to gain some color on traction of Daxxify within your practice?

[alertmeipp]

RVNC is much worse than most recently. Actually, find me another name that has 350mm cash on hand, that is down close to 40 percent MTD.

It’s clearly not just inflation or interest rate.

[soma2022]

Perhaps the better question to Ms. Dtox would be: Do you feel the pricing change last fall and the change in messaging early this year and injectors getting more experience with the product have helped to course correct Daxi and do you feel that the worse is behind the Daxxify commercial launch?

[alertmeipp]

Anyone selling? Buying?

[Emannow]

The Board of Directors meeting is May 1st so there will probably be a preliminary earnings announcement before their May 5th Q1 date.

Also AbbVie will announce Botox sales tomorrow morning!

RVNC has cash to get them through the end of 2025.

CD Daxi sales will start May 9th…there is already a backlog of orders!

China approve any day!

I am convinced AbbVie has a fund which is shorting RVNC.

[edcoolidge]

There are dozens or hundreds of comparisons just like this. RIVN makes fine products but they're unprofitable and their pathway to profitability is uncertain—not something people want to own in this interest rate environment. I don't own that stock but I've been looking for an entry point as I expect them to survive and they could easily be worth 10x in 10 years—but Rivian is far more likely than Revance to go bankrupt given the capital intensive nature of their business.