Options

[TarHeel]

Jeff, are you still dabbling with options?

[cosmoworld7]

[disco_queen]

I was curious and started checking out this new site. Guess what? Other than this and few other groups, this site is almost dead. Do I smell an opportunity here or what? Now, don’t get me wrong. I am serious. I think this is a very good forum (very similar to Silicon Investor) without any cost. That’s put this in an advantage (I guess) What do you think? Frankly, I think this site is going to stay and I think this is going to grow big. But that is not the issue. I am just a member who is concentrating all the energy to get rid of the Mafia bastards before they do him in.

[Paule]

1 Apocalypse Bear
Thinks global economy will collapse due to total charade
organized and controlled by The Powers That Be. Predicts
massive inflation followed by repudiation of fiat currency, or
worldwide deflation (take your pick). Looks to political events
for clues about the future. Was hoping Y2K would be more
eventful than it turned out to be.
Holds gold stocks and some bear funds. Isn't quite
ready to commit to shorting or buying puts. Waiting for
confirmation. In the meantime has stocked up on food
and water, 'just in case it gets real bad'.
2
Credit Crisis Bear
Reads complicated essays about esoteric financial issues.
Concerned about low savings rates, trade deficits, the yield
curve, bond market hijinks, bank overextension, and the
money supply. Has seen so much negative data over the past
four years, it's hard to detect any real signal anymore.
Tends to play with broad market instruments as
opposed to individual stocks. Hasn't lost shirt.
3
Weary Bear
Expects high P/E stocks to come back to earth when
fundamentals reassert themselves. Once was an enthusiastic
bear (say in 1997, 8, and 9). Has witnessed the market stall
and dip, only to blast off again, several times. Significantly
burned with worthless puts or short squeezes more than once.
Has developed an exquisite sense for the market. Won't get
fooled again. Mostly in the market for revenge.
Pops in and out of bear funds and occasional
put/shorts. Is waiting for the right time, at which time will
pile on and ride the market down. Is not expecting a
crash, but wouldn't be surprised if it happened.
4
Trading Bear
Looks for stocks to bounce around but generally head south.
Feels that Technical Analysis is the way to go most of the
time. Has been a survivor (unlike some vanquished Weary
Bears) because of nimble trading and tight stops.
Daytrades or week-trades. Has had some successes,
but also some losses in the last three years. Is likely to
short-cover a little too soon if the Big One hits.
5
New Bear
Just showed up and doesn't understand why old-time bears
(listed above) aren't gung-ho about an immediate market
decline. Hasn't experienced a snap-back rally. Hasn't owned a
double-inverse Nasdaq fund, but thinks it's attractive. Hasn't
shorted or held puts, been in the money, only to have some
meatball analyst talk up stocks prior to expiration Friday. May
be in for some rude surprises.
Soon will choose what kind of bear to be. Many become
Trading Bears. Others split into Apocalypse, Credit
Crisis, and Weary Bear categories.

Type
Outlook
Does
6
Smart Bear
Avoided the NASDAQ for the most part. Managed to short
those stocks which were part of the 'stealth' bear market. Most
likely a fundamentalist who also was aware of the great risks
in betting against a momentum sector.
Moves in for gains only after clear and convincing
evidence appears for earnings problems and lack of
market enthusiasm.
7
Information
Overload Bear
Has read Fleckenstein and Tice for years. Paid attention to
Barton Biggs, Alan Abelson, and Jim Grant. Knows all the
arguments regarding market overvaluation. Owns a
dog-eared copy of The Great Crash.
Not much. It's like, "If all these guys are correct, how
come the market hasn't collapsed yet?" Bears sound
convincing, but reality has been different - so far.
8
Lucky Bear
Believed to be extinct.
Unknown.
9
Angry Bear
Is hopping mad at the outrageous P/E for EBAY. Incredulous
about multi-billion market caps for 'blue sky' startups. Rants
about optical, biotech, fuel-cells, and other passing fads.
Makes a lot of noise, but hasn't put too much money at
risk yet. Deep down, this bear senses that as insane as
this market is, no amount of hectoring will change it.
10
Frustrated Bear
Thinks the market is overvalued, but not quite sure by how
much. Tends to be long for the most part - or in low yield but
safe instruments. Wants to participate in a bear feast, but
frankly can't see the right opportunity. Thinks puts are always
too expensive.
Will not do much even in a bear market. Watches the
situation closely, but feels that it's too risky going short.

Type
Outlook
Does
11
CNBC Bear
Has called for a market decline as far back as anyone can
remember. Is usually a guest on CNBC for the bulls to make
fun of.
Issues standard remarks about being in cash, or to
lighten up on stocks that have gained 400% over the
last year. Everybody ignores the advice.
12
Wall $treet Week
Bear
Currently banished from the show. The last one seen there,
Gail Dudak, was tossed from the Elves Index in 1999.
Plots Louis Rukeyser's demise.
13
Sleeping Bear
Figures it's not worth gaming this market.
Hibernates until a recession shows up.
14
Rabid Bear
'Knows' the market will drop starting tomorrow.
Goes whole hog against the market. Indescriminately
buys puts, and shorts momentum stocks while they are
rising. Approximate life span for this species has been
nine months.
15
Naked Bear
Confident of limited upside in selected stocks. A more
aggressive (and foolish - if you can believe it) version of
Rabid Bear.
Writes naked calls during bull markets. Is destined for
bankruptcy in short order. Will lose shirt, shorts, and
everything else.

Type
Outlook
Does
16
Half-hearted Bear
Variant of Trading Bear. Talks the bear talk, but deep down
isn't fully committed. Lacks conviction. It's the same problem
(only in reverse) that perma-bears have when they try to be
bullish.
Will play the short side, but tends to put more money on
the table for upside moves.
17
Bear Rug
Is disgusted with Wall Street and isn't an active trader. No
money left. Got badly burned shortly after one crisis (Asia,
Russia, LTCM, or '98 tech slump) by betting on further
declines, only to see the Federal Reserve step in and save
the day. May have also lost big during the wild ride of
Nov99-Mar00. Would like to have lunch with Julian Robertson
someday.
Writes angry letters to Alan Greenspan. Refuses to
watch CNBC anymore. Uses business section of
newspaper to train dog or line birdcage.
18
Happy Bear
Cheerful. Loves life. Believes we live in the best of all possible
worlds. Thinks Maria Bartiromo is terrific.
Currently on medication under a doctor's supervision.
19
Bogus Bear
Is a bull - no doubt about it.
Shows up on bearish message boards and raises ####
until chased away by the system administrator.
20
Bear-to-be
Currently a bull. Will remain so until bear market is fully
established. Then it will be to late.
Follows the crowd. Pays attention to Peter Lynch, Joe
Battipaglia, and Henry Blodget. Does whatever Abby
Cohen advises.

Type
Outlook
Does
21
Loudmouth Bear
Bearish for a number of reasons: Technical Analysis,
Fundamentals, Market Mood. Doesn't really matter.
Hangs out on Yahoo boards and engages in fiery
debates with believers in the New Era. POSTS IN ALL
CAPS.
22
Bear Cub
Lifetime bearish orientation being shaped by parents' gloomy
estimation of the markets. That will be a great asset or a great
liability - depending on what actually happens when the critter
reaches adulthood.
Can't wait to be old enough to open a brokerage
account and short QCOM (or its equivalent).
23
Sweating Bear
Terrified that another melt-up is in the offing. Only a couple of
days earlier had committed substantial funds to the short side.
Now very worried due to 'froth talk' about pending mergers,
money-on-the-sidelines coming back, 401k inflows, Fed
easing, any speech by Greenspan, or BLS reports.
Closes all short positions at market open. In the past,
this has often been the right thing to do, but is
developing a stimulus/reaction response that may be a
handicap in the future.
24
Relieved Bear
One horrible short play cancelled out by another that went
well. Wonders why bother at all with this nonsense.
That evening, goes out with friends or family for a good
time. Might have a few drinks as well.
25
Smiling Bear
Feeling pretty good about recent successes.
Bought some out-of-the-money puts a week before
Company X warned, and has a ten-bagger as a result.
Looking for another firm with a similar profile in order to
try it again.

Type
Outlook
Does
26
Perma-Bear
Only likes stocks trading below book value and with P/E's
under 5. Favors large cap consumer non-durables. Considers
Warren Buffett too much of a risk taker.
Avoids tech like the plague. Loves bonds. Portfolio has
appreciated by 2% (on an annual basis) over the last
decade. Unlikely to actively bet against the market,
despite feeling that it's a bubble destined to burst.
27
Elliot Wave Bear
Charts up a storm. Can count up to five (according to studies
at the University of Michigan). Keeps portrait of Leonardo
Pisano Fibonacci in den. Bed has length:width ratio of 1.618*

* Golden ratio, Phi [f]
Does quite well at times, but may find market transition
points (churning) hard to resolve one way or another.
Runs risk of being whipsawed. It is not known if Elliot
Wave Bears and Elliot Wave Bulls are distinct species -
though most experts suspect that is the case.
28
Scared S***less
Bear
Shorted a stock at 120 only to see it run up to 160. Hoping for
a market reversal. Either that, or an asteroid to hit Manhattan
before the margin call comes in.
Does not 'do it' in the woods. Is frozen into inaction,
hoping for an exit point that never seems to materialize.
Good candidate for a peptic ulcer.
29
New Era Bear
No such thing. A contradiction in terms.
n/a
30
Kodak Bear
Sub-species of Kodiak Bear.
Shorted EK in '99 and in '00. Recently gobbled up
profits faster than its fellow bears eat salmon in summer.

Type
Outlook
Does
31
401k Bear
Only significant funds are in 401k plan. By law, options may
not be purchased, nor can stocks be shorted. Must look to the
few inverse-market mutual funds as the best alternative.
Buys PrudentBear (BEARX), BearGuard, ProFunds
(USPIX, URPIX), or Rydex/Arktos (RYAIX, RYURX) funds.
32
QQQ Bear
(aka Q-Bear)
Focuses on the Nasdaq-100 trust, though may also get
involved with specific stocks from time to time. Likes the fact
that the Q's average out much of the noise and
unpredictability that accompanies individual securities.
Daytrades. Plays the Q's directly, or may try options.
Has to watch things pretty closely at times since volatility
remains fairly large, even for an index. Even though a
bear in general orientation, has to go long occasionally
'cause that's where the index seems to be headed at
times.
33
S&P Bear
Like QQQ Bear, but prefers working the Standard and Poor's
indices.
Similar to QQQ Bear.
34
Virgin Bear
Innocent as they come. Has actually made trades based on
Alan Abelson's column. Probably shorted a bit of AOL for a
small profit, and thinks playing the downside isn't all that
troubling. Hasn't experienced a short squeeze yet.
Pays no attention to Short Ratio, Shares Outstanding
vs. Float, Shares Short as Percent of Float. Will be
paying attention in the near future.
35
Logical Bear
On endangered species list during times of irrational
exuberance. Prior history shows an ability for the population
to recover sharply during market downturns.
Is a fundamentalist for the most part. Tends not to take
big risks. Unexciting player to watch. Owns a copy of
Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis, and will be
happy to discuss it with you over dinner. (You, of
course, politely decline the invitation.)

Type
Outlook
Does
36
International Bear
Obsessed with the Japanese Yen, British Pound, Mexican
Peso, and the Greek Drachma. Likes the idea of a Currency
Board for 'those countries that lack self discipline'. Sees
economic strength in terms of exchange rates. Is frankly
baffled by the poor showing of the Euro.
Does a little currency futures trading at times, but for
the most part buys and sells equities in overseas
bourses.
37
Vindicated Bear
Relief that much of the pain and suffering endured during the
1990's seems to be finally over. Though there have been big
losses during that time, the fact that the New Era has lost its
sheen, provides some solace. Always thought Greenspan was
way too cavalier about the fact that "we may be in a bubble".
Can't help saying, "I told you so," when dot-coms that
traded as high as $100 are now going for $2 and
change. Is not sympathetic at all to daytraders or margin
players that got hurt - but doesn't tease them either.
38
21st Century Bear
A most fortunate creature. Through luck or skill, didn't
become a bear until the year 2000. Missed out on all the 'fun'
other bears experienced up to that time.
Straightforward shorting and puts on tech. Not a whole
lot of analysis applied. To the amazement of long time
bears, most plays turn out to be big winners. (Sort of the
inverse of the buy-on-the-dips bull: can't lose when the
trend is your friend)
39
Wandering Bear
Moves from Fundamental Analysis to Technical Analysis to
Market Mood to Astrological Influences to whatever catches
his fancy. Although a bear in outlook, the failings of each
school during the exuberant market have made this bear keep
looking for something to make sense of it all.
Does the wrong thing at the wrong time. Shorted during
the wild run ups. Bought puts when the market was
stagnant. Tried to profit on the situation the day after a
big market drop, only to get socked by the snap-back
rally.
40
Media Bear
Cannot believe the television ads for brokerage firms which
feature people who wouldn't know a 10K if it came up and if it
bit them in the behind. Was stunned that Schwab featured
18-year-old tennis player Anna Kournikova explaining
financial terms between sets. Incredulous that so many ads
were aired during the Superbowl. Considers the fact that Jeff
Bezos was Time's Man of the Year a good indicator that the
world has gone mad.
Avoids popular media. Only watches PBS or reads back
issues of Colliers.

[Paule]

Surprise rate cut propels Dow, Nasdaq
Market Snapshot



NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - The major averages zoomed Wednesday, staging an across-the-board monster rally as the Federal Reserve caught investors off guard with its decision to trim short-term rates by half a percentage point one month ahead of its regularly scheduled meeting. Both the Dow Industrials and Nasdaq saw their best closing levels in five weeks.

That marked the central bank's second inter-meeting move since the beginning of the year and its fourth in 2001. The overnight Fed funds rate has fallen 2 full percentage points since January, taking the overnight target rate to 4.50 percent. See full story.

The Nasdaq, up 8.1 percent, saw its fourth largest percentage move ever and its second heaviest volume day.

"Short-term players were forced to adjust positions and this has led not just to short covering but also to outright institutional buying. Investors are putting money to work here," said Scott Bleier, chief investment strategist at Prime Charter.

While Bleier believes the Nasdaq can reach 2,500 in the springtime on the sheer momentum that such oversold conditions typically bring, he advises individual investors to not chase the current rally.

"At some point, it's possible we retest the lows on Nasdaq," Bleier concluded.

In the meantime, Merrill Lynch's chief U.S. investment strategist Christine Callies upped the equity portion of a balanced portfolio to 70 percent from 65 percent while lowering the bond portion to 25 percent from 30 percent. Merrill's 12-month target for the S&P 500 Index is 1,570.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US) soared 399.10 points, or 3.9 percent, to 10,615.83 while the Nasdaq Composite (US) soared 156.22 points, or 8.1 percent, to 2,079.44.

The Dow's frontrunners included Intel, Hewlett-Packard, Home Depot, American Express, Wal-Mart and J.P. Morgan Chase. The only downside movers were Merck, Johnson & Johnson, Philip Morris and SBC Communications.

"The [Fed's] timing was perfect. Everyone had given up hope so the Fed maximized the surprise and got [the most] bang for its buck," said Drew Matus, financial economist at Lehman Bros. Matus now expects the Fed's May 15 meeting to produce a cut of 25 basis points instead of the 50 basis points that had been expected before the latest move.

With an eye to stocks, the policy-makers may have been thinking about investor sentiment, some observers said. "You can easily take from the Fed's statement that rates were cut for the equity market," Matus said.

"If ever there were a surprise, this is it. After a couple of weeks of being told by Fed officials that inter-meeting cuts are generally to be avoided, this was not on anyone's agenda," commented Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at high Frequency Economics. "It must also prompt the question of whether the Fed knows something we don't, though the statement focuses largely on just two elements of the macro story -- the weakness of capital spending and the impact of falling wealth on consumption."

Even before the rate-cut news, tech stocks had flourished right from the start of trading Wednesday amid hopes that most of the bad news on the earnings front may already be reflected in stock prices.

In another encouraging move, investors again managed to shrug off warnings - this time one from Dow component Hewlett-Packard -- and instead zeroed in on better-than-expected news, such as Intel's better-than-expected earnings report.

All tech sectors registered massive gains, with hardware and chip issues enjoying the heftiest advances. In the broad market, brokerage, bank, biotech, retail and cyclical shares climbed while traditionally defensive areas of the market -- such as drug and utility -- declined. Natural gas, oil, and oil service issues also sagged. View the latest market stats.

Among other major market gauges, the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) climbed 159.28 points, or 9.5 percent, to 1,830.79, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (US) surged 3.9 percent and the Russell 2000 Index (US) of small-capitalization stocks gained 2.4 percent.

See After Hours for post-market trading activity.

Volume stood at a heavy 1.90 billion on the NYSE and at 3.18 billion on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Market breadth was extremely positive, with winners trouncing losers by 20 to 11 on the NYSE and by 29 to 12 on the Nasdaq.

Merrill's Callies said the market was acting appropriately to the move.

"We would point out that investors should not be too quick to assume that the rally cannot last. We believe this is very powerful stimulus and we think the market has already set itself up to respond to improving data from the economy at some point this year," she said in a research note.

Shepherdson applauded the Fed for its "willingness to overlook" recent signs that the manufacturing sector may be warming up again.

"We are reluctant immediately to assume that the Fed will for sure cut rates again on May 15 -- it depends on the data -- though it seems a reasonable working assumption unless we hear otherwise from the Chairman," Shepherdson added.

In its statement, the FOMC worried about the threat of capital restraints and declining wealth combining to keep the pace of economic activity unacceptably weak. The panel noted that "capital investment has continued to soften, and the persistent erosion in current and expected profitability, in combination with rising uncertainty about the business outlook, seems poised to dampen capital spending going forward."

However, the Fed also noted that a significant reduction in excess inventories seems well advanced and that consumption and housing expenditures have held up reasonably well.

Cohen cuts S&P, Dow targets

Goldman Sachs's head of investment strategy Abby Joseph Cohen lowered year-end targets on the S&P 500 to 1,550 from 1,650 and on the Dow Industrials to 12,500 from 13,000. That represents gains of 30 percent and 22.4 percent from current levels, respectively. Cohen said her 12-month forward price target for the S&P 500 for spring 2002 is 1,600.

"Above trend gains are achievable for these major indexes owing to current undervaluation and belief that an economic black hole is not likely," the Goldman pundit said in a note to clients.

Additionally, Cohen reduced her longstanding 2001 estimate for S&P 500 operating earnings-per-share to $56.50 from $60. She also introduced a forecast for 2002 EPS of $61.50, a projected gain of 9 percent vs. 2001 levels.

"We do not expect an intractable recession and expect profit growth to reaccelerate in the second half of 2001," she added. "The critical point is that we believe much of the damage to profits has already occurred and/or been reflected in stock prices."

Earnings galore

Meanwhile, the downpour of earnings news continued unabated.

Hardware stocks, for one, dismissed H-P's profit warning and were among the biggest upside movers within technology. The company (HWP) told investors Wednesday that rapid deterioration in global information technology spending would cause it to miss second-quarter estimates. H-P climbed 9.1 percent, Dell 8 percent and Compaq 11.8 percent. See full story.

IBM (IBM) swelled 6.8 percent. The company posted after the close Wednesday a first-quarter profit of 98 cents a share, in line with the Wall Street consensus estimate.


Chip stocks reveled in Intel's good news, pushing the Philly Semiconductor Index ($SOX) up a smashing 11.7 percent. The chip behemoth (INTC) jumped 20.1 percent and was the Dow's biggest upside mover after posting late Tuesday a profit from operations of 16 cents in the first quarter, beating the Wall Street consensus estimate by a penny. Investors latched on to Intel's comment that its microprocessor business appears to have stabilized. The stock received a number of upgrades. See latest upgrades and downgrades.

AOL Time Warner (AOL) registered first-quarter earnings of 23 cents a share, topping estimates by 3 cents. Revenue climbed 9 percent during the period and the Internet and media colossus said its America Online unit added 2 million subscribers during the quarter, bringing the total to nearly 29 million. The stock ended up 11.6 percent. See full story. Among other stocks in the Net space, Yahoo jumped 7.6 percent and Amazon climbed 12.2 percent. Business-to-business stocks also enjoyed heady gains.

Brokerage stocks were on fire, sending the Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD) up 7.4 percent. See related story. Powerhouse Merrill Lynch (MER) posted first-quarter earnings of 92 cents a share, down 21 percent from the $1.24 a share last year and 2 cents ahead of the Wall Street estimate. The company said profits declined amid a slump in retail order flow as stock prices dropped. Shares added 9.3 percent.


The Dow's financial components were also on a roll. J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) posted a profit from operations of 70 cents a share, down from $1.10 per share in the year-ago period and ahead of the 66 cents a share that had been expected by First Call/Thomson Financial. The company said weak stock market conditions resulted in lower equity underwriting. See full story. J.P. Morgan surged 8.2 percent, Citigroup 4.4 percent and American Express 9.2 percent.

Among other Dow stocks reporting results, Coca-Cola (KO) said it made 35 cents a share in its first quarter, two pennies ahead of the consensus estimate. The company also said it's comfortable with current earnings expectations for 2001. And General Motors (GM) reported a profit of 50 cents a share, down from $2.80 a share made in the first quarter last year but well ahead of the 26 cents a share that Wall Street had expected. For the current quarter, GM said it's on track to earn 95 cents a share. See full story. Finally, International Paper (IP) said it had a profit from operations of 5 cents a share in the first quarter, in line with the consensus estimate but well below the 60 cents earned in the same quarter last year. Coke rose 2.3 percent, General Motors 5.9 percent and International Paper 4.6 percent.

Drug giant Pfizer (PFE) posted a profit from operations of 33 cents a share in the first quarter, two cents ahead of the Wall Street estimate and up 34 percent over the year ago period. Shares fell 3.6 percent, mirroring declines in the drug sector.

Select consumer stocks also declined, with the dour tone triggered by an earnings miss from Gillette (G) due to sagging sales and adverse foreign exchange effects. See full story. Gillette lost 8.6 percent, Kimberly-Clark 1.8 percent and Dial 3.2 percent.

Treasury focus

Government prices were mixed in light of the Fed's move. Only short-dated issues gained traction on the rate cut while long-dated securities languished at lower levels.

The 10-year Treasury note was off 1/4 to yield (US) 5.265 percent while the 30-year government bond slumped 1/8 to yield (US) 5.67 percent. See Bond Report.

In economic news, the February trade gap narrowed to $26.99 billion vs. expectations of a $32.7 billion deficit. It was the narrowest level in 14 months. See full story.

And leading economic indicators fell 0.3 percent in February vs. a projected 0.2 percent increase. Thursday will see the release of weekly initial claims and the Philly Fed Index for April. View Economic Preview and economic calendar and forecasts.

In the currency space, dollar/yen slumped 0.7 percent to 122.39 while euro/dollar rose 0.5 percent to 0.8877.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Julie Rannazzisi is markets editor for CBS.MarketWatch.com in New York.

[Paule]

New Economy vs New World Order

chnic: the money men are all from old money
(in fact, a previous poster was kidding about a two headed monster.. when you consider how closely they intermarry.. lol).. Rothschild, Warburg, Rockefeller, Oppenheimer, JP Morgan (chase), etc... Hey, recognize any of those names from the talking heads on CNBC and the other financial channels? You know, the same talking heads who upgraded a stock at 200, but who are now advising you to sell at 10, because the outlook is cloudy for a quarter or two?

You'll note that the 'destruction & chaos' in the market that you refer to has NOT hit the NYSE.. it never did close in bear market territory. (yet. The bankers might need to kill more business to achieve their ultimate goal).
I suspect that it's because the NYSE was not the target of Greenspan and the bankers. They already have the business (debt) of all those companies.

However, they did not have the business of the internet.
Angels, venture capital companies, incubators, and bootstrappers owned the new world economy.
The bankers wouldn't touch them because they have a myopic view of the world.
What collateral did a dot com have to offer? 'hits'? 'eyeballs'? What would they repossess if the loans went sour? Servers? Technology moves so fast that there is no value auctioning year old equipment.
Besides, the only 'servers' that the fatcat bankers knew were the ones who lit their cigars and heated their brandy in their private clubs.
They didn't realize that eyeballs were the same as window shoppers. They didn't realize that a percentage of window shoppers will eventually buy and become repeat customers.
They didn't realize that a computer screen (and now, a laptop, a pda, and a cell phone) would become personal, portable shopping malls and bank branches, and brokerage houses, and Dick Tracy-like two way communications devices.
Bankers were happy to carry bonds to build a shopping mall with brick and mortar, but they were highly suspicious of an ethermall. After all, to them ether was the stuff Holmes used to inhale.
This is all evidenced by the fact that the internet explosion took them by surprise.
Remember, a very young Alan Greenspan was one of the people who decided to save memory space in line code by using two digit numbers for the year, instead of four. Greenspan himself was concerned enough about the potential effect of y2k that he made sure there was excess cash in the system, correct? The old money bankers had no idea that e commerce, b2b, b2c, b2g, etc would take off so quickly. They thought it was so shaky it would fall apart.
They were half right. But they were also half wrong.

Suddenly, billionaires were created. Money was changing hands. Wealthy new, young entrepreneurs (with vision) were willing to bankroll newer, younger entrepeneurs who capitalized on yesterday's new inventions. New money suddenly threatened to become debt AND equity financing (that's all there is). They provided liquidity. LIQUIDITY! They used their asymmetrical information (they are the first to know if a new technology is going to make it, or fail) and began to form their cyber version of the Japanese kereitsu.
But wait.. isn't that the bankers' job?
Didn't the bankers try and fail time and again to control the currency of the nation, until they crammed the Federal Reserve down the throats of Congress?
Bumps in the road? Of course. Scams? of course. Fools gold? a bubble? Of course! But peel back the negatives that stopped the bankers from backing the internet start ups, and you'll discover the internet revolution. sans the problems, it changes everything. Permanently.
The bankers discovered it, too, but they were late to the party.
So they did the only thing they could. They choked the economy, under the guise of fighting phantom inflation. Zero growth, that'll teach 'em. Negative growth, if they have to, but the bankers will do whatever they have to do to gain control.
Pure dot coms were doomed (and a lot of them WERE only a bubble). But there was collateral damage as well. Hybrids. Those who helped brick and mortar businesses to save millons. Consumers. Biotech breakthroughs. It doesn't matter. They [the bankers] have not yet developed a monetary smart bomb that leaves the buildings standing, and just kills the enemy. They carpet bombed everything. After all.. where will we turn if everything goes to he11 in a handbasket? Why, the big bankers, of course.
But fear not.
You're right. The new economy leaders have had a taste of true freedom, and they will not quit.
It is a battle of the New Economy vs the New World Order.

[Paule]

By: 2_Steel_Balls 04-14-01 at 10:21 am
Reply To: None Post # 72001


Happy Easter to everybody

Friday's action was nice, very typial for bear market explosive rallies. I would like to talk about the general market for a minute, to explain the rally we had last week, and possibly to try to pedict where it is going.
last week's rally took by surpise all the traders on all the boards I talk to. and Ianalyzed the forces in the market(like a weather system) and came to some very intresting conclusions
1) The market was so oversold, that nobody was left to sell volontarily, margin was forced out .
2) People who sold positions lastyear, long tem positions such as Yahoo and AOL , who bought the stocks a ot lower, sold at a profit, maybe they bought AOL at $10, it reached 100, and they sold say at 50, on tyhe way down. so they have to pay taxes

3) these people bougt back in january into the bull trap rally.
4)since they thought bthat the bear market was over, they kept their new positions, knowing that they had to sell positions to pay taxe by april
5) the situation got so out ofhand in March, that they had to get out due to marketconditions and margin calls earlier than they would havve hoped, with bigger losses.

6) by last week, the market lost all its individual sellers, and institutions were left to guard the milk

7) all of a sudden, we had a situation where sellers were a small force, the short sellers got nervous, and started covering slolwly.
8) people put money into IRA accounts, andthat poured billions into mutual funds.

so what happens when we are still in a bad bear market, where nobody believes that the economy has any signs of recovery, and they are scared to buy?

the individuals freez. funds spend IRA monew causing a big rally. sellers are gone cause they lost their money, the come the shorts, who made tons of money, and they cover.
this recovery gets out of hand, whensome ANALyst realizes that (oh' things are so bad they cant get worse, so I call a"bottom"). this adds fuel to the unbalancded fight between sellers and buyers, and we get a rally.

now, shorts are used to these rallies failing, and short all the way up, loosing andd over5ing higher. then the chinese situation seems to resolve itself (I will elaborate later on that
anyway this rally looked like it is thereal thing.



my analysis shows that we got out of the oversold situation.
fundamentals ar still terrible
earnings are ahead of us, and they are UGLY

IRA money is done buying

we are still in a bear market.


looking at charts, 1950 nasdaq is a good place for the rally to sotp for many reasons, with a slight possibility for 2350 as the top. (great shorting opportunity if we getther.

now we are left with a decision to sell or roll the dice for 2350. that is all. no new bull market nonsense.

I expect monday to open slightli positive, and drift down towqards theclose. the close will be violently down.

now if we break higher , say 2000 on monday, then I expect 2350, and the play will be to the short side.


be carful guys. none of this analysis has to do with AMD specifically, but AMD is part of the market.

About the Chinese situation.
After the crews arraived safely, and the celebrations are over, and the medals are awarded to the pilot, we have to sit down and reflect

1) the Pentagon has a new reality, Chinese are phisically interfering with US flights in international waters. they consider the enatire area to be chinese.
2) The chinese still hold the 300 million dollar plane
3) the Taiwan situation is getting tense
4) they have to decide if to Sell Taiwan the technology they want , and the chines oppose it very much, some missile defense system mounted on boats/ships

I think that after the celebrations are over, the chinese situation will get worse.


I think that earnings are going to be terrible, even if the market (very unlikely) can shrug them off.
IRA money is done buying
People will not buy the higher prices, when stocks were 30-80 % lower last week
leyoffs, FED not doing didly
Inflation in the horizon, oil prices higher


The auto industry, that suprisingly showed nice growth last quarter, (besides american cars) BMW had a great quarter. I believe that this is due to agressive leases expiring, and new ones starting.
The situation in the middle east is about to explode into a war


honestly, can anyone here on this board show me 1 reason for a market recovery? I mean a sign of recovery that already started in the industry, not stock market related.

I plan to put my money in the short side, possibly QQQ shorts or Intel short/ puts.

[Paule]

KO may 35 puts.

[bbgold]

FIUDA daddydo! April 5 calls on FIRE. Keep an eye for them to go under 1/4 again. I think that FIRE will be $5 by March and the calls should at least double IMHO. How do the ICGE and CMGI calls look now? Let's hope that the Nasdaq can continue to move back up. Good Luck daddydo! :^)

[daddydo]

TXN looking very strong going into close on Monday....Calls opened at .90 and hit high of 2.20 for the day....So far so good....

[daddydo]

Picked up some TXN Feb 15 calls for 1 1/8 on Friday....Should be good next week or two...IMO

[bbgold]

Hey daddydo, Happy New Year to you to! I just picked up some CMGI today for 3.75 so now I need to decide on whether I sell for the profit or sell some calls and hold onto the stock. Do you think that I can get .50 for a Jan 5 call tommorrow <gg>. You can get a March 5 for a $1 now, Wow. I guess that no one has any faith that the markets will be moving up any time soon Eh? Good Luck to you in your investments! Any good Options out there in your opinion? TIA, bbgold :^)

[daddydo]

Happy New Year and let's hope this new year brings back some easier times in this market...

Jeff

[bbgold]

Hey Jeff! I missed Xmas but for now I wish to say, "Let the New Year bring us lots of Prosperous memorays" Happy New Year! :^)

[daddydo]

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE.....HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY HOLIDAY WITH YOUR FAMILIES....

jEFF

[daddydo]

Jerome thanks for checking in and welcome to the thread. Good luck in your options trading.Will take a look at those and thanks for the information....Hopefully over time we can build this thread to the point where we have many option ideas and eyes out there on this sector of the market that so many seem reluctant to get into...Merry xmas....have a safe and happy holiday.

take care

Jeff

[bbgold]

Hey Jerome, Yes, I think that the shorters are still hovering over a lot of stocks out there looking for any sign of weakness. PALM could move as high as $40 IMO if Santa has any Reindeer powder left over. We shall see. :^)

[myDDdotcom]

Yea, I sold half that PALM after a 35% gain with PALM jsut over $30. It still has a upside gap to fill, so if it moves up to $35 quick, I'll sell, cause I expect the shorters would return strong.

imo

[bbgold]

Thanks for the posts Jerome! Nice pickup on Palm. I'll check the other thread also.

[myDDdotcom]

Here's another option thread for resource:
http://www.investorshub.com/beta/board.asp?board_id=292


imo

[myDDdotcom]

hey Jeff, thanks for starting this thread. I just started trading options this week, have been tracking a friends (K4S) getting into them for the past couple of months, and I like it a lot. Seems very similar to position trading in the otcbb, best tactic is to take profit when it comes. But I guess that will eventually turn into a hold and let run, if the bull ever returns, until then, we just keep playing the rebounds off of lower floors.

Anyway, the two I have are GX--2002 Jan $20, and PALM-- Aug $35.

PALM's were on a really great sale on thursday, already up 37%, GX's, anything near $3 is a great buy.

Anyway, here's to good returns.

imo

[bbgold]

Thanks Jeff, Good Luck to you also. :^)

[daddydo]

CMGI mar 10 for 2$ doesn't sound too bad .IMO....It is volatile enough that it seems to have nice pops fairly often.I trade open options only right now.Have not tried covered or writing my own yet.I have had decent luck with open options and will probably stick with them for now.But I started this thread so we could all learn about other types of option trading.

good luck

Jeff

[bbgold]

Hey daddyo, RHAT looks like it is going Down EH? CMGI calls do not look Too cheap but I think that they are Fair. If I may ask, do you trade covered shares or trade open options? Right now I am interested in how options can help my Held positions. I just picked up some NZRO at 1 1/16. If I can sell Jan 5 calls for 1/4 then I would pick up .25 cents per share (less commissions) and the only way that I would lose my shares is if the stock price was above 5 in Jan? And if I waited until the price rose to say $2 then perhaps I could get a higher price for the Jan calls? BTW, It I could I would buy Mar 10 calls on CMGI for $2, VERY VERY CHEAP! What do you think Jeff? TIA bbgold :^)

[daddydo]

CMGI Jan,Mar,Jun calls looking good here.IMO....I bought some too early but these are cheap.Gonna take a look next week.Made it out of RHAT calls barely this week for Dec 12 1/2...Just in time...

Jeff

[daddydo]

Hey I am with you the more you learn the better off you are..I am going to try and get a couple of others over here soon that trade options also...Options can be very good when you can find the right ones cheap....

[bbgold]

Hey daddyo, Yes, I would like to learn more about what options are available with Options. There are so many possibilities in how you position yourself that it seems amazing at times what can be done. I am only approved for covered Options so that is mainly what I am interested in at this time. I would like to learn all of the Ins and Outs to all sides of Options trading though. I once read somewhere that anyone can become an expert on Any subject within 3 years if they commit the time to learning the subject. I guess that means that I will probably be around here for the next 3 years since I have just started to learn Options. The more people involved here who are experienced and willing to help us lower folk the better. Looking forward to your posts, bbgold :^)

[daddydo]

BBGOLD,Each put or call represents 100 shares that you control.So in order to write 100 calls or puts I believe you would have to risk 10,000 shares...I am not sure I fully understand the Question but I honestly have not done any put or call writing.I am inviting a couple of others to this thread that will hopefully take a look and help with some of these questions as well.I am not 100% sure on the writing of calls and puts yet,but am anxious to learn that as well...

thanks

Jeff

[bbgold]

Hi Jeff, I am new to options. If I purchased 100 shares of KDE I know that I could sell a Call on my shares. Would be able to sell a Put on the shares also, and how would that affect my position? Would I be giving someone the write to sell my shares at the strike price? If so, why not buy 100 shares and sell 100 Feb Puts at 35 for $24? I am understanding this correctly? I think that I have something wrong because it sounds Too easy. TIA bbgold :^)

[bbgold]

Thanks Jeff, It helps. :^)

[daddydo]

KDE....may 10 and 12 1/2 calls look very good here.IMO
That gives us the christmas earnings and if positive growth I believe that marks about the 14th straight growth Quarter for KDE...I can not believe this stock with a p/e of about 3.18 and approx 11.40 per share cash in the bank is sitting where it is right now...I have heard rumors that have been floating around of share buyback coming.Rumor only so far,but it does make sense with that much cash and the large short interest position that it currently has...

Jeff

[daddydo]

bbgold....I am no expert either and that is why I started this thread,but tht sounds about right....Here is an example...hope it helps.
Investor owns 1000 shares of Stock x @ $55 a share

write 10 covered calls strike price of $60
collect premieum of $750
If stock price rises to 60$
buy 10 calls to cancel obligation and prevent losing stocks

This is called writing a covered call

good luck and do your own DD for sure on this stuff....Not a recommendation here by any means to trade options...

Jeff

[daddydo]

Bernard,I saw INSP too as low as it was and was going to buy and then looked at revenues which weren't bad...But then the loss was pretty scary and the shares o/s along with book value pretty much made my mind up....Decided to stay away...Puts probably would not be bad on it..For some reason I have had better luck with calls....Last PUT i bought was PPRO at 46 and then about 3 days later they announced a split and it ran to 90+....lol
Funny thing is I watched it for months follow the same pattern from 20 to 45 back and forth.As unstable as the market was I thought I could not lose on it and learned a hard lesson...Only option so far I have lost on...

[bbgold]

Thanks Bernard, I think it may only pertain to a covered call. Where you have to give up your shares at the strike price you sold the call at if the Option is excercised. I am not sure, I will have to go back and read the book again. LOL. Have a good night Bernard. :^)

[Bernard Ng]

hum... I don't think so, you sold your potato, and someone got it... you have no obligation anymore, coz' you don't have the contract. Don't quote me on this topic... I don't think I know more than you LOL.

signed,
Bernard

[bbgold]

Thanks Bernard, Someone explained it too me that if I sold the call early(before it expired) and the stock price went higher then I would be responsible to purchase the shares to cover the call that I had sold. True?

[Bernard Ng]

Hi bbgold, the post is just a lead so that daddydo and smudge can start to discuss options here... as smudge said that she will come over soon... and this is not my thread, so I don't understand what are you talking about...

Once you buy the call, it's your hot potato... you can sell your hot potato to someone before it gets cold, or you can let it expire (cool down), and become 0 value (non-eatable) if you choose not to exercise the contract (eat the potato)... is that how your analogy work?

Hope this helps, and I'm absolutely not an expert in this field LOL




signed,
Bernard

[bbgold]

Hi Bernard, Is that an 'Example' of a post Or an Example of a post that might get daddyo and smudge to give up the juice to your thread? I can only get covered calls at this time. I guess I do not have enough money in my brokers account for him to trust me with an Uncovered call. I guess he thinks that I might buy one and then sell it before it expires and have to cough up the dough to cover the call. Isn't that how it works? Once you buy the call it is Your Hot Potato until it expires even if you pass it on? TIA bbgold :^)

[Bernard Ng]

From a newsletter... maybe this can help to heat this thread up a bit, so daddydo and smudge will post more about options based on a lead or an example...

Immunex Corp. (NASDAQ: IMNX - $40.50) - The source who gave us REGN back in
the 9 area and it shot up to 57 3/8, told us today to buy IMNX. He said
something big is about to break over the next week.
The principals in Xcel have purchased 150 December 45 calls at a price of
$1.50, which is always high risk, but we know the source to be very
accurate. Pick your spots carefully!

signed,
Bernard

[alexed]

What I was hoping for here,was if you could explain how this guy is trading these commodities?I don't see calls or puts for each one.Rather I see prices and stops.
November 20, 2000 Daily Updates 8:00 am CST.
To know what to do is…WISDOM
To know how to do it is…SKILL
To know when to do it is…JUDGMENT
To combine them all through futures trading is what we provide….

Trade Recommendations
Buy/Sell Month Commodity Strike Put/Call Price Stop
Buy Jan Orange Juice *7290 *7140
Buy Feb Lean Hogs 5580 5517
Buy April Live Cattle 7547 7477

Spreads
None



Open Trades
Buy/Sell Month Commodity Strike Put/Call Entry Stop
Bought Jan Soybean 460 Put 50 TBA
Bought Dec '01 Euro $ 93615 93530
Sold Dec Silver 4855 4735
Bought Feb Live Cattle 7365 *7472
Bought March Wheat 2702 2634
Bought March Corn 2192 2142







Spreads

Bought Jan Soy Meal 16920
Sold Jan Bean Oil 1535 tba






Legend:
GTC - Good 'Till Cancelled
MIT - Market If Touched
MOC - Market On Close
OCO - Order Cancels Order (or)
SCO - Stop Close Only
TBA - To Be Announced
TP - Take Profits or Target Price
{ } - If Filled
/ - Or
* - Denotes Change From Previous Day
Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial situation. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in commodity trading can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as large gains.
The Trade Accord™ consists of educational futures and options recommendations to be used in conjunction with a hypothetical $25,000.00 account. This material is provided for informational purposes only; no recommendations to buy or sell actual futures or options contracts are being made. All information is derived from sources believed to be reliable, but does not guarantee its accuracy. Any losses resulting from following information contained herein are the sole responsibility of the reader. The information provided above is not intended as a solicitation. Excel Futures will not provide past performance information on any past recommended trades and will not provide profit projections for any currently recommended trades.

Excel Futures

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888-959-9955 / 714-843-9937 / FAX: [phone]

International: 01-714-843-9937

http://www.excelfutures.com or E-mail to [e-mail]

[Bernard Ng]

INSP, with a market cap of over $5B, should we play the put options... I simply don't understand why can it stay at the current level... <ggg>

signed,
Bernard

[Bernard Ng]

Bernard,CMGI I have traded options on before and just like it's volatility and ability to move quick when the market bounces.Played it for a 55%
gain on the last run to 24 a week or so ago....However I did pick up LU,ORCL,ISSI calls in the past few days and also KDE may 10 calls..I feel
that with a post election bounce will be good to all of them.KDE has been very frustrating,record earnings and it goes from 20 to 12 never to
come back yet...If shorts begin to cover I feel we will have a nice move on it..So much looks good on KDE it is hard to imagine why it won;t
move.ISSI rock solid earnings and it is now at a p/e of about 11.ORCL p/e of about 20 and LU just looks cheap.Just hope that the election is
settled very soon...Have a great thanksgiving Bernard.

take care

Jeff

signed,
Bernard

[daddydo]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone

[daddydo]

Bernard if you will Please post the private message that I sent on the board here...My mistake I thought i sent it public and could not figure out how to change it once I sent.

thanks
Jeff

[Bernard Ng]

daddydo, you got any systematical way to get the options picks? or just a hunch... like CMGI has fallen so much, and since they have tried very hard to make a profitable company, and cut all the fat... so you assume that by Jan, it's going to make a come back, etc... is that why you make this trade?

signed,
Bernard

[daddydo]

Sure thing Bernard,glad someone else noticed and maybe over time we can all learn more about them and am hoping that we can get many people bringing some to the table...Currently bought back CMGI Jan 12 1/2 calls and KDE may 10 calls....Both look good IMO....If anyone else has any suggestions,please bring em to our attention...

take care

Jeff

[daddydo]

Sure thing Bernard,glad someone else noticed and maybe over time we can all learn more about them and am hoping that we can get many people bringing some to the table...Currently bought back CMGI Jan 12 1/2 calls and KDE may 10 calls....Both look good IMO....If anyone else has any suggestions,please bring em to our attention...

[Bernard Ng]

Options... I don't know much except the basic, would like to learn more here.

Thanks daddydo for creating this thread.

signed,
Bernard

[daddydo]

IMO...CMGI has some very good prices on calls for Jan and also looking at Mar and June calls here.Also like KDE calls for May as they are reporting earnings this week.May options in KDE gives you the benefeit of the X-mas season numbers as well as this weeks numbers that if good will be the 13th straight growth Quarter for KDE.

Take care

Jeff