News 
Market Data 
Discover
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
hal
test
test
test
test
DDR contract prices lift 3% to 5%; DDR2 quotes flat in 1HMay
Contract prices of DDR were lifted by a slight 3-5% while DDR2 prices were quoted flat in 1HMay. As Intel still reserve 30% of its chipsets for the DDR-supported 865 series in 2Q, solid demand of DDR keep prices stay strong. However, as the actual output of DDR trails behind demand, chipmakers succeed to raise their quotes by 3-5%. DDR2 prices were remained stable, thanks to the 10% ASP premium over DDR and its mainstream role at the market. Chipmakers are continue ramping up their DDR2 output.
DRAMeXchange records that the up tick of DDR2 module demand boost prices significantly over the last quarter. ASP of DDR2 512MB was quoted at US$41.23 in 1Q06, up 10.6% from US$37.27 in 4Q05. Prices of DDR module were relatively weak than DDR2 in terms of QoQ price trend. ASP of 512MB DDR were still quoted 10.6% lower than the same density DDR2 in 1Q at US$37.27, versus the US$39.52 in 4Q05.
DDR spot price was down 1% while DDR2 eTT spot price up 1.3%
DRAM transaction is persistently sluggish amid the week-long holiday at Asian regions with DXI only trended up by 0.9% (or 30 points) to 3,289 in the week May2-9. Despite the absence of obvious demand growth, the deprecation of US dollar against NT dollar prompt chipmakers to seek for price adjustment, thus, any hurting price downside risk is unlikely in near term, we believe" DDR 256Mb eTT (UTT) price reduced by 1.3% sequentially and closed at US$2.35 while prices of both DDR 256Mb 32Mbx8 400MHz and DDR 512Mb 64Mbx8 were stabilized at US2.46 and US$4.87. The emerge of DDR2 demand from the spot market grew prices up. DDR2 512Mb 64Mbx8 533MHz kept at US$5.07 level while the same-specification N.M.B gained 1.3% on week and closed at US$3.84.
2Gb/4Gb NAND Flash contract prices raised slightly at the end of April
The price rally of NAND Flash contract prices stabilize from early April with most makers insist to preserve price stability. Some even insisted to raise quotes for 2Gb to US$5-6. Hynix quotes its SLC made 4Gb at US7.10-7.20 and Toshiba quoted at US$8. Prices of high-density 8/16Gb were still subject to slight drop with 8Gb SLC quoted at US$17-19, MLC at US$15-17; 16Gb SLC at US$35-36, MLC at US$33-34. Price changes of chipmakers vary on distinct production situations.
The latest shipped prices for 2Gb/4Gb were just raised slightly while 8Gb/16Gb still dropped by an approximate of 5% in 2HApr. We've noted that both Samsung and Hynix had raised their quotes to major customers like Flash card makers at early May, though the quotes were not the finalized quotes for the latest batch of shipment yet.
Note : DRAMeXchange will adjust our release frequency of NAND Flash contract prices from once a month to twice a month from this update in order to deliver a real-time market trend amid the elasticity of the NAND Flash market.
In compare with the price negotiation mechanism of DRAM, NAND Flash makers adjust their price negotiation period and frequency upon customer relationship, shipment amount and market trend. The negotiated prices will remain unchanged if the supply-demand balance is healthy but makers may adjust their final quotes before shipment starts, especially during the shipment peaks near month end. Market-sensitive prices are usually reflected when shipment approached during these periods.
Since the price negotiation period between sellers and buyers is flexible, the announced prices were the recent quotes that chipmakers set for their latest batch of shipment. The published NAND Flash quotes on April 17 were the prices that chipmakers quoted on their latest shipment prior to the published date and reflected the price trend during March 17 to April 17. As chipmakers were exposed to the financial pressures during the quarterly/annually end during late March, the rapid growth in shipment dragged prices down and the released prices should be interpreted as a price indication during this period, rather than the stabilizing price trend that emerged from early April.
1Gb/2Gb NAND Flash spot prices show tepid signs
NAND Flash transaction at the spot market was notionally listless in the week May2-8. Positive signs emerged during May4-5 on manufacturers preparation on production resuming.
Although the NAND Flash spot market tended weak on May 2, prices for both 1Gb and 2Gb chips stabilized from May 3 along with China makers transaction resuming after the week-long holiday. As inventory for these density chips is in tight, slight price gains are observed.
Prices of 4Gb were also notionally stable despite the slight drop that recorded on May 2. Price of 8Gb suffered relatively larger price fluctuation while quotes for 16Gb were set still at the US$35.78 level.
Sony and Fujitsu both outshine in 2005 annual revenues
Despite revenues and margins growth, Sony deserves more improvement at its electronics goods sales
Sony announced that its fiscal 2005 revenues (Apr05-Mar06) grew by a slight 4.4% YoY at 7,457bn yen with operating margins shoot by 67.9% to 191bn yen but the sales from its electronics sales just improved slightly.
Sales contribution from electronics goods grew 1.7% YoY at 150.5bn yen on the solid sales growth of LCD TV and RPTV. However, the sales amount recessed by only 3% YoY and reflected the positive impact of Japanese yen against US dollar in this period. Loss from electronics goods was reported at 30.9bn yen, down by 3.4bn yen from FY 2004's 34.3bn yen.
Despite Sony records sales growth for its game consoles, the operation margins did not grew in a corresponding trend. Sales of game consoles grew by 27% YoY at 958.6bn yen with a majority of this sales amount were contributed by the 14.06mn PSP shipped. Operation margins for game console, however, were declined by 62% at 8.7bn yen on the associated R&D expenses from PS3. Sony projects that shipment for its upcoming PS3 will reach 6mn units during Nov06 to Mar07 after the game console launched in the coming November.
For movie related sales, Sony records its sales amount grew by 1.7% at 745.9bn yen but operation margins slashed by 61% at 27.4bn yen amid the drop of number of movies as compare with the Spiderman 2 that launched last year.
Financial business is the segment that contributes most to Sony's revenues in the last year. The sales amount grew by 32.6% with operating margins shoot by 239.4% at 188.3bn yen. The swing of industry-wide upside at stock market is the major cause. Music related business also drew attention with its encouraging 286.4% growth (at 16.2bn yen), despite the sales amount slipped by 11.1%.
Overall speaking, Sony projects for a 10% revenues growth in FY 2006 at 8,200bn yen while operation margins are expected to decline by 48% at 100bn yen. Sony budgets an additional 20% of expenses at equipment expansion at 460bn yen. Among this budgeted amount, 170bn yen will be allotted for semiconductor business, a growth of 30bn yen an year.
Fujitsu records encouraging results after reshuffle
Fujitsu reports its FY 2005 (Apr05-Mar06) revenues grew by a slight YoY 0.6% at 4,791bn yen with operation margins grew by 3.8% at 181.4bn yen. Both revenues and operation margins picked up along with the reshuffle of the re-defined three major business units in 2005.
Revenues from technology solutions and IT system & software contributed a total of 164.2bn yen Operation margins from these segments were up 1.7% (49.5bn yen) and 15.6% (22.1bn yen), thanks to the growth of UNIX server shipment from overseas, opto-transmittance system demand from North America and the IT service outsourcing business from UK.
Contribution from PC, handset and hard disk drive (HDD) grew 2.8% at 28.5bn yen while operation margins grew 10% at 3.1bn yen. Although Fujitsu recorded PC shipment growth at overseas regions, the company suffered setback in Japan amid the keen domestic competition. HDD sales and operation margins, however, show encouraging growth.
The component unit, which includes both LSI and electronics component, reported a sales reduction of 11% at 87.2bn yen on the spin-off its FPD business. Operation margins at this unit grew by a slight 2.2% at 700bn yen.
Industry
3C applications to rise as new NAND Flash demand drivers
Series of NAND Flash-based storage applications and multimedia-oriented handhelds should supplement new ingredients for NAND demand after 2006. The strengthening consolidation of 3C (computer, consumer electronics & communications) will grow demand for associated memory card density in order to feed rising demand for video storage. Buoyed with the shrinking per MB cost of NAND, the average density of embedded NAND Flash at 3C applications should keep escalate.
DRAMeXchange foresees that more 3C goods will able to house as much as 4GB memory card in 2007 by the advancement of build-in firmware solution. Memory cards will be growing popular at other consumer electronics goods such as digital flat displays. We observe that some sellers are advertising their products via DTVs or portable display devices in those regions that are lack of comprehensive infrastructure. These devices are usually equip with external memory slot in order to broadcast stored propaganda clips that stored in memory cards and this substantial demand is also serving as an encouraging sign for NAND demand in the future.
The growth of NAND-based storage applications should drive NAND demand from 2007. Flash-based storage devices among portable consumer electronics should start replacing some low-density micro HDD from 2007. The solid foothold of low-cost HDD should persist without being threatened by the introduction of low-density Flash-based Solid State disk (SSD) for PCs by 2008 amid the current technology roadmap of NAND flash makers.
Microsoft's Vista, the brand-new 64-bit OS, will support Samsung's hybrid HDD architecture. Intel that schedules to introduce the Robson cache technology on its Santa Rosa platform for notebooks in 1Q07 hints another NAND demand driving force. Under this new technology, NAND will be adopted as cache memory to consolidate with HDD in the Hybrid HDD.
Handsets vendor, at the meantime, are also paving the path for new NAND demand driver as the upcoming multimedia-enriched applications should grow density of memory cards. We expect the proportion of high-density memory cards to rise in 2007.
Nokia, Apple, Microsoft, Samsung and Sony are all developing brand-new multimedia handsets that enable handsets to perform duties as DSC, MP3, PMP, PDA, GPS, portable game console, DV & TV broadcasting carrier.
The rise of these multimedia-enriched handsets will spark the competition with 3C (consumer electronics, computer, and communications) goods and we should see low-end MP3 players, DSCs and PMPs to encounter stiff competition in near future.
The growing popularity of mobile TV, especially in mature markets, is a positive sign for NAND market for no doubt but we do not expect TV phone to spur NAND demand much by 2008. Industry players have to overcome the barriers from infrastructure and industrial standards and make a more concrete step on deployment on the hand. The bonds from battery life and the demand for suppressing cost also constrain the growth of TV phone and associated NAND demand at the meantime. With the anticipated substantial demand for NAND among TV phone, the shrink of price per MB should help boosting shipment for external high-density memory cards over the coming years.
News Summary (May.3rd~May 9th)
May 2006
2006/5/9 SMIC China-based Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) and US-based Aurora Systems have announced Aurora's LCOS (liquid-crystal-on-silicon) panel chips have successfully entered volume commercial production at SMIC.The digital LCOS panel chip is designed by Aurora Systems in both 1,080p (1,920~{!A~}1,080) and 720p (1,280x720) resolutions for rear-projection TV (RPTV) in high-definition format.Several leading consumer electronics manufacturers have already employed these LCOS panel chips in the production of high-resolution, large-size RPTVs.Aurora's collaboration with SMIC started in early 2005, said Poking Li, acting CEO of Aurora Systems.
Silver 1975-1980's spike
DRAM spot prices remained slight upward trend (Weekly Summary)
Overall DRAM transaction at spot market slows down last week amid the week-long May1 long holiday at some Asia regions. Both DDR and DDR2 stayed flat or just trend up slightly and DXI grew by a dismal 0.9% (or 29 points) to 3,249.
Prices of DDR 256Mb eTT (uTT) chips gained by 0.9% sequentially at US$2.37 while the same density 32Mbx8 400MHz DDR stayed flat at US$2.47 level. Higher-density 512Mb 64Mbx8 400MHz enjoyed a relative stronger growth rate at 1.5% and closed at US$4.88.
The anticipated mainstream role of DDR2 continues stimulating DDR2 prices heading upward. As some marketers starting re loading their DDR2 inventory from spot market, price of DDR2 512Mb 64Mbx8 533MHz was stabilized at US$5.05. Price uptick of same-specification N.M.B. followed and grew by 2.4% to US$3.79 (or grew by 2.2% to US$3.78?).
The price fall of DDR2 contract prices came to an end in January and shoot in February, the price growth momentum continued in March and persisted through April.
Although some expected that the price uptick might turn weak in late March, the production issues at a leading DRAM maker that affected an entire month's (during late March to early April) output had led to shortages of both DDR and DDR2 in April.
Some chipmakers even grabbed this opportunity and raised their quotes slightly. The entire DRAM industry is pose under a mist of uncertainties, especially when DDR2 price trends did not stay in line with normal seasonality pattern in the previous two quarters.
DDR2 that topped the high price levels in April should be able to result in a higher QoQ ASP growth in 2Q06, if DDR2 contract prices to drop within 10% MoM in May and June.
Projecting ASPs trend in 2H06, DRAMeXchange doubts the possibility of any sharp price growth in 2H06. Disregard DDR2 ASPs may still enjoy a 2-3% MoM growth in 3Q, quarterly ASPs should slip by 3% QoQ. Assuming DDR2 ASPs may pick up its strength again in 4Q, the price levels should top at the highest level in 4Q on an annual basis.
Marketers who dumped their stocks at spot market under the previous quarterly/annually financial accounting pressures had dragged overall NAND prices slashed by 30-40% in March. Samsung that suffered a harder drop than Hynix has reduced its output, as well as controlled its shipment frequencies in order to stabilize prices in April. Under Samsung's measures, spot prices did trend upward at a trivial rate.
However, as overall demand for end-products like Flash cards, digital cameras and MP3 players were listless, demands are barely stimulate. The ramp up of Hynix MLC-made NAND (4Gb and 8Gb) also grows supply considerably at spot market from mid April. Hynix that quotes its MLC-made NAND with lower rates then SLC-made parts hold consumers' interest aside.
The majority of demand was concerted at the 2Gb and 16Gb last week. Most buyers wait aside for clearer price trend amid the May1 holiday and anticipated new products. The expected demand pick up for the holiday failed marketers, buyers did not pre stock their inventory before the holiday.
Although some suggested that the nose-dived contract prices should supplement growth ingredient for the market, some others observe that the blur demand for end products still exist. DRAMeXchange sees quotes for Toshiba's 1GB and 2GB Flash card keep declining, which implies a lower chance for contract prices to go up soon in the near term.
Industry
Where is the beef for handset-use memory under diversity of handset functions? (Part II)
Escalating multimedia content demand prompts higher NAND Flash growth rate than NOR
Although both NOR and NAND Flash are the two complementary flash memory for most of nowadays' handsets (please refer NOR/NAND features in Apr25's special report), NAND is leading the way in terms of future growth in compare to NOR. Despite the production value of NOR is higher than NAND with its higher average selling prices (ASPs), the future growth should be far lower than NAND. Considering the fundamental feature of NAND, it is best suit of storage data than NOR. The escalating multimedia-oriented applications at handsets along with the advancement of mobile communication bandwidth should jointly spur demand for NAND. Ever from the 2.5G generation, handsets start to equip with MP3, camera or camcorder functions and handsets could now even provide mobile video along with the arrival of 3G generation.
Handset to rise as the major demander for memory card
The anticipated camera phone shipment growth should continue to grow associated memory card demand. Card standards, which are now classify into certain major camps, are also deriving from their origins with more alternatives to feed the demand of shrinking handset sizes.
Camera phone has now overtaken digital camera's position as the largest demander of memory card. Shipment of camera phone should occupy over half of overall handsets at an approximate of 450mn units in 2006, versus the 80 million units shipment of digital camera, reflecting the associated substantial demand for memory card.
Among the current three major memory card standards, namely SD (Secure Digital), MMC (Multi-Media Card) and MS (Memory Stick), SD grabs a larger competitive edge over the others on leading handset vendors' support. Vendors including Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG and Siemens have all join the SD camp and roll out respective SD-supported handsets. The card standard of SD is jointly developed by the number one memory card seller SanDisk and Japan's Matsushita and Toshiba while related new standards and marketing are handled by SDA (SD Card Association).
SD cards are now offering a wide range of sizes like mini SD (20x21.5x1.4mm) and microSD (15x11x1mm) in order to feed the demand of handset size minimization. Likewise, the MMC camp has also rolled out MMCmini (18x24x1.4mm) and MMCmicro (14x12.1.1mm) while MS also offers MS Duo (20x31x1.6mm) and MS Micro (15x12.5x1.2mm).
NAND to win ultimate success over NOR battle on constant technology advancement
When tracking the majority flash memory architectures that handsets designers could employ, the trend that the market share of NOR is sneaking from NAND is obvious. Developers are twisting around these architectures in order to preserve the natural benefit of NOR and to optimize the advantage of NAND at the meantime. We believe that the constant progress of NAND should eventually overcome the instability and relatively low data execution concerns over NOR with competitive cost structure.
XIP (execute-in-place)
XIP is a composite structure of NOR Flash and DRAM. A handset system executes program codes via NOR whiles some other program codes and data are managed by DRAM. The simple structure however comes along with the pricy cost and dismal data read/write speed of NOR (5s for writing a new phone number). XIP is relatively less competitive when more memory density is required to house multimedia-oriented applications.
Shadow Model
To overcome the cost and low data execution issues of NOR, some developers whom specialize on high-end handset designing employ Shadow model. Under this model, program codes are stored in NOR while most of the operation system is shadow over to DRAM. Advantages of this structure are the lower overall production cost of handset but weaknesses are the prolonged boot up time and higher power consumption amid the simultaneous operation of the memory.
Hybridized structure
Some memory makers are now introducing hybridized structure (mix of SRAM, NAND and control logic IC) to overcome the shortcomings of the above structures without scarifying the data execution speed of NOR and the storage advantage of NAND. M-Systems and Samsung are the two first introduce these hybridized devices. Samsung's 90nm made OneNAND houses an identical data read rate as NOR Flash at 108Mbyte/s while its write speed is 66 times of NOR's at 9.3Mbytes. M-System's DiskOnChip offers faster write performance than standard NOR but slower read speed.
www.dramexchange.com/img/content/weeklyinfo/special_report_20060502d.gif
News Summary (Apr.26th~May 2ed)
May 2006
2006/5/02 Intel Called the World Ahead program, the effort essentially expands on other programs Intel has conducted to bring computing to countries like India and China, particularly to people who live in small cities and villages. Though India has become a software powerhouse, it's estimated that the country a year ago had only 14 PCs for every 1,000 people.Intel will provide equipment under the program as well as teacher training. The program will also let the company lay some of the groundwork for future sales as the markets in these nations mature. Intel, after all, entered China back in the 1980s and was able to capitalize on the growth of the tech industry in that country. WiMax--the long-range wireless networking standard heavily promoted by Intel--will figure prominently in the program. Overall, Intel is involved in 175 WiMax trials worldwide, a representative said. PCs, naturally, will also play a big part. The company is currently working on six different PCs that will come out during the next six years tuned for various geographies. Intel has already come out with a few PCs and software applications tailored for particular geographies. A PC for India unveiled last year, for instance, comes in a sealed case to keep out dust and runs off a car battery, important in a country where blackouts are a daily occurrence. Meanwhile, in China, Intel devised software to let managers of Internet cafes control their PCs easier. Paul Otellini, the company's CEO, is expected to sketch out the program further in a speech at the World Congress of IT, a biennial event taking place this week in Austin, Texas. Various companies and academics have put forth plans for bridging the digital divide. The ideas can roughly be broken down into four categories: more-rugged PCs promoted by Intel and Via Technologies; a cell phone that can be hooked into a phone or monitor, promoted by Microsoft; thin clients, touted by companies in India; and inexpensive devices that are similar to PCs. This is the so-called $100 laptop from MIT's Nicholas Negroponte.
DRAM contract price falls limited in 1HApr, temporal NAND rebound not to grow contract prices
DXI rebound highlights DDR price resumes
DXI reversed its downward trend from Mar30 (up from 2,894 to 3006) and signifies the stabilizing prices of DDR at spot market recently. Although DDR2 still suffered slight drop last week, the stable DDR prices hold overall DRAM spot prices firm and reflected in the rebound of DXI accordingly. DRAMeXchange observes that DXI trended downward since late Jan with the index once nose dived from 3,158 to 2,184 (or 174 points) and the index resumed to normal levels after bottomed out.
We observe that DDR 256Mb eTT (uTT) showed the strongest price rebounding sign (up 12% to US$1.91) last week, thanks to the rumors about PSC's possible supply suspension. Demand of DDR continues holding a stronger trend than DDR2 amid Intel's clearance on 865G chipsets in 1H06. Those 865 chipsets with reduced prices are flooding at downstream motherboard makers and spur DDR demand to pick up further.
Price of DDR 256Mb 32Mbx8 400 MHz grew by a slight 1% to US$2.01 while the higher density 512Mb DDR also grew by 3.8% to US$4.10. DDR2 prices still remained weak last week with DDR2 512Mb 64Mbx8 533MHz dipped by 2.1% to US$4.72.
DRAM contract prices to stay flat in 1HApr
Checking the ongoing price negotiation trend on 1HApr DRAM contract prices, DRAMeXchange believes DDR2 512MB module should stay flat or drop by a slight 2-3%. Overall DRAM contract prices should not fall as our initial expected 5% as supply of DDR2 is still in short. Although supply of DDR2 should be improved in Apr in compare with the previous two months, its present shortage should help stabilizing overall DRAM (including DDR) with stable price trend in April.
Thanks to the escalating shipment for DDR2 667MHz, DRAMeXchange forecasts that DRAM makers should able to see better than expected ASPs in 2Q despite dropping DRAM prices. We see demand for DDR2 667MHz has been picking up recently and such specification of chips are now enjoying a price premium of 10-15% over 533MHz. Transaction volume for DDR2 1GB 667MHz SO-DIMM for notebook applications is also rising and results in an over 15% price premium over DDR2 1GB 533MHz Unbuffered DIMM.
Despite NAND Flash prices snap back, shortage illusion should diminish on anticipated contract price falls
NAND Flash spot prices for 1Gb-16Gb surged by 2-13% during Mar31 to Apr1 but only 1Gb reports a mere 2% price growth on a week-on-week basis. Does the price rebound signify that the NAND Flash market has finally reached equilibrium? Or spot prices have already hit bottom? DRAMeXchange believes not.
We believe this is only a temporary mismatch of supply and demand as spot customers were forced to source for NAND Flash supply at higher quotes to meet urgent demand amid the insufficient TSOP package chip supply.
This false supply shortage illusion will not last over a week as April NAND contract prices will be release next week. The anticipated price drops amid flattish demand and escalating supply should dispel this temporary NAND shortage illusion.
Last minute orders spur demand but not in an industry-wide level
The entire spot market highlights the chaotic demand and supply mismatch amid the delayed contract deals. The persisted oversupply not only delayed the price negotiation but also shipment to smaller scale customers at the spot market. These customers who were unable to secure expected amount of stock from contract market were forced to source stocks from the spot market, regardless the quotes they took were higher. Although the delayed shipment at the spot market did spur demand, transaction volume kept minimal as players were still aware of their inventory levels. They only source the exact amount that they look for in order to avoid any inventory loss.
Oversupply situation to induce finished goods demand however its supply remains limited
Since NAND Flash component prices keep sliding on a daily basis since Feb06, module houses and OEMs tend to source finished goods (i.e. memory card) rather than components (i.e. TSOP package chip) in order to avoid potential loss from the prolonged lead time. However, supply is not sticking in line with demand and more NAND are shipped in wafer form rather than in chip or finished goods form in March. This unbalance demand/supply scenario is especially strong for the mainstream chip 4Gb.
PC market watch: International vendors cultivate China expansion to grow potential revenues driver
Toshiba fosters China NB sales via complete " localization "
After extending its presence at the China market for over a decade, Toshiba should enjoy the blossom of complete localization on production, human resources and channel management.
Production Toshiba starts investing in China from 1995 and its market share of notebook (NB) grew 8% within a year. In line with taking the lead in China NB market, Toshiba established its Shanghai production plant in Jun00 and extended its production base to Hangzhou in 2002 in attempt to strengthen its NB production for global market. The company had also relocated its Philippines capacity to this site in 2005 - further fosters its production core at China.
Human resources Ever since Ishiwatari Toshiro serves as the president of Toshiba Personal Computer & Network (Shanghai) from 2005, he aggressively grows the number of China professions at the company. Gang Wang is appointed as the company vice president and CEO in Nov05 and responsibles for the management of products, market, sales and services at China. Built on the 11 years of service at Lenovo and the previous duties at TCL, Wang is an expertise on China's IT industry. After taking the CEO position at Toshiba, Wang establishes a solid management team with local professions right away.
Channel management Toshiba announced to adopt the multiple distribution agents mode rather than multiple distributors mode in late March, 2006 and the company plans to grow the NB direct sales spot number from the present 200 to 500. Toshiba will also partner with large-scale retailer in order to extend its coverage at channels and add efficiency to its supply chain partners.
Dell continues to expand R&D forces in China
In order to seek for revenues drivers aside from the steady PC sales at mature markets, international vendors like Dell have all grown their investments overseas. Take Dell for instance, the company reports its overseas market contribution hit US$80bn and the contribution ratio had shoot by 21% to 43% of overall sales through Jan3106.
China could be described as an indexical market for Dell among all oversea markets. Dell topped as the number three PC vendors in China but its share still kept under 10%. As the market share from China is far lower than its share at mature markets, the company announced to continue expanding at its CTC (China Technology Center) in late March in order to grow its market share on expanding R&D team resources at the region.
CTC was established at Beijing in 2002 and houses a team of ten professions at initial stage. Dell relocated the center from Beijing to Shanghai in 2003 and expanded the workforce number to 300. The number of workforce will further boost by another 200 by 2006. Among the planned expanded workforce, Dell will also recruit local graduates or offer internship. This center is mainly responsible for designing NB and DT and serves a key contact window for Dell's domestic suppliers in order to meet the growing numbers of partners at the region.
DDR2 shortage to ease from late Mar, price fall of NAND mitigates
TAIPEI, Taiwan - Mar. 7, 2006 - The market of both DRAM and NAND trend more stabilize last week, posting good signals for buyers and NAND Flash makers but mist over DRAM suppliers. The observed crossover of DDR2 contract and spot prices prompts us to foresee the ease of present DDR2 shortage to emerge from late Mar, coupled with the anticipated supply growth. NAND Flash, which had been suffered a dramatic price fall recently, finally shows stabilizing trend. DRAMeXchange regards the upcoming CeBIT (Mar 9-15) as an key indicator for both DRAM and NAND Flash price trends.
Crossover of DDR2 spot &contract prices highlight ease of DDR2 shortage
DXI descended to 3,007 points from 3,013, reflects the slight DDR2 spot prices drop last week. Despite the weak PC clone market demand had led to a 8% price drop for DDR 256Mb 32Mbx8 400 MHz and 1.2% drop for DDR2 512Mb 64Mbx8 533MHz since February, prices of the listed chips rebounded last week. DDR 256Mb 32Mbx8 400 MHz trended to US$1.8 after bottomed out at US$1.77 and DDR2 256Mb 32Mbx8 533MHz was stabilized at US$2.1. Demand for DDR2 chips at the spot market remains weak and Elpida has started clearing stocks with price of DDR2 512Mb 64Mbx8 533MHz dragged by a slight US$0.06 to US$5.09.
Spot prices of DDR2 had once maintained with a slight difference with contract prices during Dec05 but rumors suggested that the shortage in early Jan06 had prompted system makers to procure considerable amount of DDR2 chips from spot market and led DDR2 spot prices enjoyed a relatively high price premium over contract prices (Chart 1). This crossover maintained through late Feb and spot prices of DDR2 finally showed softening signs. Contract prices, on the other hand, trended up in 1HMar and resulted in a reverse spot/contract market crossover. DRAMeXchange estimates that the upward trend of DDR2 contract prices will counter a respite in 2HMar with chips either traded flat or report slight price drop.
The weakening DDR2 spot prices highlight that demand from system makers at the spot market no longer persist and interpret that the previous shortage should result in equilibrium from late Mar. We expect DDR2 output should start ramping up from late Mar as chipmakers have shifted more capacity on DDR2 production from early Jan. Demand, at the meantime, should trend down as the traditional low season approach. The record-high DDR2 shortage of 50-60% that observed in Feb should no longer exist.
Contract price trends of "High" and "Low" chips trended reverse in 1HMar
Tracking the contract price records for 1HMar, price trend for "High" and "Low" level chips trended divergently in the previous two updates. "High" level chips reported a sequential growth of 2% only in 1HMar, versus 2HFeb's over 10% jump. "Low" level chips, however, rebounded by an over 10%, versus 2HFeb's 2-3% growth. We conclude the factors as (1) Some vendors had fixed contract prices for 2HFeb for some customers . This price settlement in turns limited the price up rate for "Low" level chips in 2H Feb.. Noted the rate of price up among different system makers fluctuate amid the difference of bargaining power. (2) DRAM insisted to raise prices for "Low" level of DDR2 256MB modules to $ 22 in 1HMar and the average price of DDR2 256MB DIMM being boosted up by US$1 to US$23. For those customers whom accepted the over 10% price adjustment in 2HFeb, the narrow-down price up of 2-3% had adjusted the price difference nearer. Contract prices for DDR were able to maintain at its plateau as some customers were open for slight price up to trade for sufficient DDR2 supply.
NAND Flash spot price stabilized within 4% fluctuation rate
After reporting a maximum of 18% MoM dramatic price fall, the NAND Flash downward pricing trend has finally come to a stop in the week Mar1-6 with the maximum drop rate only recorded at 4% for 4Gb parts. Demand, though not in a large amount, was being encouraged by the price reductions and stimulated demand from memory card makers. We observe that China market mainly focuses on 1Gb and 2Gb while Korean market focusing on 4Gb and 16Gb. Apart from demand of NAND devices makers, we also see speculators started collecting 1Gb and 2Gb parts, thus sustaining these parts' current price levels at certain levels. However, overall demand is not strong enough to swing the price trend up side down and industry players are still observing the order landed status after CeBIT.
Supplies of high-density NAND Flash chips still occupy the majority at the spot market these days. But agents and customers still have bountiful inventories on hand. As prices for 2Gb, 4Gb, and 8Gb NAND Flash chips had dropped belowUS$9, US$15 and US$30, we believe contract prices for these chips should counter with the stiffest price drop pressure in March as makers still expect to push sales.
.
Market watch: Lenovo debuts 3000 series to complete product coverage
After the stunning consolidation with IBM's PC unit last year, Lenovo debuted its "Lenovo 3000" for the global market during late February and target to meet the needs of small business and individuals. Lenovo 3000 will be first introduced at London , Paris , Singapore and Sydney and deliver to 45 countries soon after the initial launch.
Lenovo sets its Lenovo 3000 for the mentioned customer groups in attempt to distinguish the small business market with the original PC group that inherited from IBM. The arrival of Lenovo 3000 also helps to complete the product range to the high-end market group that established by IBM previously.
This series of PC is currently the entry-level models with desktop version priced at US$350 and notebook version priced at US$599. The price ranges of Lenovo 3000 are similar to fellow players including Acer, Dell and HP in US with sales only available on Lenovo/IBM's website but not distribution channels.
As Dell already established a solid foothold at the PC direct sales channel in US, Lenovo could hardly compete head-to-head with Dell. Competition at distribution channels, on the other hand, are grabbed by leading players such as Acer and HP. DRAMeXchange is conservative about any rapid market share growth of Lenovo PC in near term but remains open for its long term development. If Lenovo could fulfill demand of small business groups and individuals with complete after-sale service and strengthened tie with distributors, Lenovo should able to polish its brand name among others. Sparking any price competition is definitely not a wise move for Lenovo, especially when its PC shipment level has not yet reached economical level.
Market watch: Tsinghua Tongfang wins Anhui government bidding orders again
The deployment of five-year long "Billion Project" by the Chinese government posts a positive outlook for China-based PC makers with leading local player, Tshinghua Tongfang, reports encouraging news recently.
Tshinghua Tongfang, which is profound for its PC at the education institution in China for a long history, had recently landed the bidding cases from the Anhui province government. The total ordering amount totaled at an approximate of 2,300 desktop PCs and another 600 servers. The amount landed by Tshinghua Tongfang ranked at second place after the number one bidder.
Tshinghua Tongfang has been devoting years of efforts on supplying PCs for education institutions and its established foothold enables the company to gain the bidding orders for the third time. In addition to the Anhui province government orders, it had also landed a total of 150,0000 PCs ordering amount from various regions including Hebei, Hunan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Shanxi and Xinjiang.
