Tuesday, May 02, 2006 7:39:33 PM
DRAM spot prices remained slight upward trend (Weekly Summary)
Overall DRAM transaction at spot market slows down last week amid the week-long May1 long holiday at some Asia regions. Both DDR and DDR2 stayed flat or just trend up slightly and DXI grew by a dismal 0.9% (or 29 points) to 3,249.
Prices of DDR 256Mb eTT (uTT) chips gained by 0.9% sequentially at US$2.37 while the same density 32Mbx8 400MHz DDR stayed flat at US$2.47 level. Higher-density 512Mb 64Mbx8 400MHz enjoyed a relative stronger growth rate at 1.5% and closed at US$4.88.
The anticipated mainstream role of DDR2 continues stimulating DDR2 prices heading upward. As some marketers starting re loading their DDR2 inventory from spot market, price of DDR2 512Mb 64Mbx8 533MHz was stabilized at US$5.05. Price uptick of same-specification N.M.B. followed and grew by 2.4% to US$3.79 (or grew by 2.2% to US$3.78?).
The price fall of DDR2 contract prices came to an end in January and shoot in February, the price growth momentum continued in March and persisted through April.
Although some expected that the price uptick might turn weak in late March, the production issues at a leading DRAM maker that affected an entire month's (during late March to early April) output had led to shortages of both DDR and DDR2 in April.
Some chipmakers even grabbed this opportunity and raised their quotes slightly. The entire DRAM industry is pose under a mist of uncertainties, especially when DDR2 price trends did not stay in line with normal seasonality pattern in the previous two quarters.
DDR2 that topped the high price levels in April should be able to result in a higher QoQ ASP growth in 2Q06, if DDR2 contract prices to drop within 10% MoM in May and June.
Projecting ASPs trend in 2H06, DRAMeXchange doubts the possibility of any sharp price growth in 2H06. Disregard DDR2 ASPs may still enjoy a 2-3% MoM growth in 3Q, quarterly ASPs should slip by 3% QoQ. Assuming DDR2 ASPs may pick up its strength again in 4Q, the price levels should top at the highest level in 4Q on an annual basis.
Marketers who dumped their stocks at spot market under the previous quarterly/annually financial accounting pressures had dragged overall NAND prices slashed by 30-40% in March. Samsung that suffered a harder drop than Hynix has reduced its output, as well as controlled its shipment frequencies in order to stabilize prices in April. Under Samsung's measures, spot prices did trend upward at a trivial rate.
However, as overall demand for end-products like Flash cards, digital cameras and MP3 players were listless, demands are barely stimulate. The ramp up of Hynix MLC-made NAND (4Gb and 8Gb) also grows supply considerably at spot market from mid April. Hynix that quotes its MLC-made NAND with lower rates then SLC-made parts hold consumers' interest aside.
The majority of demand was concerted at the 2Gb and 16Gb last week. Most buyers wait aside for clearer price trend amid the May1 holiday and anticipated new products. The expected demand pick up for the holiday failed marketers, buyers did not pre stock their inventory before the holiday.
Although some suggested that the nose-dived contract prices should supplement growth ingredient for the market, some others observe that the blur demand for end products still exist. DRAMeXchange sees quotes for Toshiba's 1GB and 2GB Flash card keep declining, which implies a lower chance for contract prices to go up soon in the near term.
Industry
Where is the beef for handset-use memory under diversity of handset functions? (Part II)
Escalating multimedia content demand prompts higher NAND Flash growth rate than NOR
Although both NOR and NAND Flash are the two complementary flash memory for most of nowadays' handsets (please refer NOR/NAND features in Apr25's special report), NAND is leading the way in terms of future growth in compare to NOR. Despite the production value of NOR is higher than NAND with its higher average selling prices (ASPs), the future growth should be far lower than NAND. Considering the fundamental feature of NAND, it is best suit of storage data than NOR. The escalating multimedia-oriented applications at handsets along with the advancement of mobile communication bandwidth should jointly spur demand for NAND. Ever from the 2.5G generation, handsets start to equip with MP3, camera or camcorder functions and handsets could now even provide mobile video along with the arrival of 3G generation.
Handset to rise as the major demander for memory card
The anticipated camera phone shipment growth should continue to grow associated memory card demand. Card standards, which are now classify into certain major camps, are also deriving from their origins with more alternatives to feed the demand of shrinking handset sizes.
Camera phone has now overtaken digital camera's position as the largest demander of memory card. Shipment of camera phone should occupy over half of overall handsets at an approximate of 450mn units in 2006, versus the 80 million units shipment of digital camera, reflecting the associated substantial demand for memory card.
Among the current three major memory card standards, namely SD (Secure Digital), MMC (Multi-Media Card) and MS (Memory Stick), SD grabs a larger competitive edge over the others on leading handset vendors' support. Vendors including Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG and Siemens have all join the SD camp and roll out respective SD-supported handsets. The card standard of SD is jointly developed by the number one memory card seller SanDisk and Japan's Matsushita and Toshiba while related new standards and marketing are handled by SDA (SD Card Association).
SD cards are now offering a wide range of sizes like mini SD (20x21.5x1.4mm) and microSD (15x11x1mm) in order to feed the demand of handset size minimization. Likewise, the MMC camp has also rolled out MMCmini (18x24x1.4mm) and MMCmicro (14x12.1.1mm) while MS also offers MS Duo (20x31x1.6mm) and MS Micro (15x12.5x1.2mm).
NAND to win ultimate success over NOR battle on constant technology advancement
When tracking the majority flash memory architectures that handsets designers could employ, the trend that the market share of NOR is sneaking from NAND is obvious. Developers are twisting around these architectures in order to preserve the natural benefit of NOR and to optimize the advantage of NAND at the meantime. We believe that the constant progress of NAND should eventually overcome the instability and relatively low data execution concerns over NOR with competitive cost structure.
XIP (execute-in-place)
XIP is a composite structure of NOR Flash and DRAM. A handset system executes program codes via NOR whiles some other program codes and data are managed by DRAM. The simple structure however comes along with the pricy cost and dismal data read/write speed of NOR (5s for writing a new phone number). XIP is relatively less competitive when more memory density is required to house multimedia-oriented applications.
Shadow Model
To overcome the cost and low data execution issues of NOR, some developers whom specialize on high-end handset designing employ Shadow model. Under this model, program codes are stored in NOR while most of the operation system is shadow over to DRAM. Advantages of this structure are the lower overall production cost of handset but weaknesses are the prolonged boot up time and higher power consumption amid the simultaneous operation of the memory.
Hybridized structure
Some memory makers are now introducing hybridized structure (mix of SRAM, NAND and control logic IC) to overcome the shortcomings of the above structures without scarifying the data execution speed of NOR and the storage advantage of NAND. M-Systems and Samsung are the two first introduce these hybridized devices. Samsung's 90nm made OneNAND houses an identical data read rate as NOR Flash at 108Mbyte/s while its write speed is 66 times of NOR's at 9.3Mbytes. M-System's DiskOnChip offers faster write performance than standard NOR but slower read speed.
www.dramexchange.com/img/content/weeklyinfo/special_report_20060502d.gif
News Summary (Apr.26th~May 2ed)
May 2006
2006/5/02 Intel Called the World Ahead program, the effort essentially expands on other programs Intel has conducted to bring computing to countries like India and China, particularly to people who live in small cities and villages. Though India has become a software powerhouse, it's estimated that the country a year ago had only 14 PCs for every 1,000 people.Intel will provide equipment under the program as well as teacher training. The program will also let the company lay some of the groundwork for future sales as the markets in these nations mature. Intel, after all, entered China back in the 1980s and was able to capitalize on the growth of the tech industry in that country. WiMax--the long-range wireless networking standard heavily promoted by Intel--will figure prominently in the program. Overall, Intel is involved in 175 WiMax trials worldwide, a representative said. PCs, naturally, will also play a big part. The company is currently working on six different PCs that will come out during the next six years tuned for various geographies. Intel has already come out with a few PCs and software applications tailored for particular geographies. A PC for India unveiled last year, for instance, comes in a sealed case to keep out dust and runs off a car battery, important in a country where blackouts are a daily occurrence. Meanwhile, in China, Intel devised software to let managers of Internet cafes control their PCs easier. Paul Otellini, the company's CEO, is expected to sketch out the program further in a speech at the World Congress of IT, a biennial event taking place this week in Austin, Texas. Various companies and academics have put forth plans for bridging the digital divide. The ideas can roughly be broken down into four categories: more-rugged PCs promoted by Intel and Via Technologies; a cell phone that can be hooked into a phone or monitor, promoted by Microsoft; thin clients, touted by companies in India; and inexpensive devices that are similar to PCs. This is the so-called $100 laptop from MIT's Nicholas Negroponte.
Overall DRAM transaction at spot market slows down last week amid the week-long May1 long holiday at some Asia regions. Both DDR and DDR2 stayed flat or just trend up slightly and DXI grew by a dismal 0.9% (or 29 points) to 3,249.
Prices of DDR 256Mb eTT (uTT) chips gained by 0.9% sequentially at US$2.37 while the same density 32Mbx8 400MHz DDR stayed flat at US$2.47 level. Higher-density 512Mb 64Mbx8 400MHz enjoyed a relative stronger growth rate at 1.5% and closed at US$4.88.
The anticipated mainstream role of DDR2 continues stimulating DDR2 prices heading upward. As some marketers starting re loading their DDR2 inventory from spot market, price of DDR2 512Mb 64Mbx8 533MHz was stabilized at US$5.05. Price uptick of same-specification N.M.B. followed and grew by 2.4% to US$3.79 (or grew by 2.2% to US$3.78?).
The price fall of DDR2 contract prices came to an end in January and shoot in February, the price growth momentum continued in March and persisted through April.
Although some expected that the price uptick might turn weak in late March, the production issues at a leading DRAM maker that affected an entire month's (during late March to early April) output had led to shortages of both DDR and DDR2 in April.
Some chipmakers even grabbed this opportunity and raised their quotes slightly. The entire DRAM industry is pose under a mist of uncertainties, especially when DDR2 price trends did not stay in line with normal seasonality pattern in the previous two quarters.
DDR2 that topped the high price levels in April should be able to result in a higher QoQ ASP growth in 2Q06, if DDR2 contract prices to drop within 10% MoM in May and June.
Projecting ASPs trend in 2H06, DRAMeXchange doubts the possibility of any sharp price growth in 2H06. Disregard DDR2 ASPs may still enjoy a 2-3% MoM growth in 3Q, quarterly ASPs should slip by 3% QoQ. Assuming DDR2 ASPs may pick up its strength again in 4Q, the price levels should top at the highest level in 4Q on an annual basis.
Marketers who dumped their stocks at spot market under the previous quarterly/annually financial accounting pressures had dragged overall NAND prices slashed by 30-40% in March. Samsung that suffered a harder drop than Hynix has reduced its output, as well as controlled its shipment frequencies in order to stabilize prices in April. Under Samsung's measures, spot prices did trend upward at a trivial rate.
However, as overall demand for end-products like Flash cards, digital cameras and MP3 players were listless, demands are barely stimulate. The ramp up of Hynix MLC-made NAND (4Gb and 8Gb) also grows supply considerably at spot market from mid April. Hynix that quotes its MLC-made NAND with lower rates then SLC-made parts hold consumers' interest aside.
The majority of demand was concerted at the 2Gb and 16Gb last week. Most buyers wait aside for clearer price trend amid the May1 holiday and anticipated new products. The expected demand pick up for the holiday failed marketers, buyers did not pre stock their inventory before the holiday.
Although some suggested that the nose-dived contract prices should supplement growth ingredient for the market, some others observe that the blur demand for end products still exist. DRAMeXchange sees quotes for Toshiba's 1GB and 2GB Flash card keep declining, which implies a lower chance for contract prices to go up soon in the near term.
Industry
Where is the beef for handset-use memory under diversity of handset functions? (Part II)
Escalating multimedia content demand prompts higher NAND Flash growth rate than NOR
Although both NOR and NAND Flash are the two complementary flash memory for most of nowadays' handsets (please refer NOR/NAND features in Apr25's special report), NAND is leading the way in terms of future growth in compare to NOR. Despite the production value of NOR is higher than NAND with its higher average selling prices (ASPs), the future growth should be far lower than NAND. Considering the fundamental feature of NAND, it is best suit of storage data than NOR. The escalating multimedia-oriented applications at handsets along with the advancement of mobile communication bandwidth should jointly spur demand for NAND. Ever from the 2.5G generation, handsets start to equip with MP3, camera or camcorder functions and handsets could now even provide mobile video along with the arrival of 3G generation.
Handset to rise as the major demander for memory card
The anticipated camera phone shipment growth should continue to grow associated memory card demand. Card standards, which are now classify into certain major camps, are also deriving from their origins with more alternatives to feed the demand of shrinking handset sizes.
Camera phone has now overtaken digital camera's position as the largest demander of memory card. Shipment of camera phone should occupy over half of overall handsets at an approximate of 450mn units in 2006, versus the 80 million units shipment of digital camera, reflecting the associated substantial demand for memory card.
Among the current three major memory card standards, namely SD (Secure Digital), MMC (Multi-Media Card) and MS (Memory Stick), SD grabs a larger competitive edge over the others on leading handset vendors' support. Vendors including Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG and Siemens have all join the SD camp and roll out respective SD-supported handsets. The card standard of SD is jointly developed by the number one memory card seller SanDisk and Japan's Matsushita and Toshiba while related new standards and marketing are handled by SDA (SD Card Association).
SD cards are now offering a wide range of sizes like mini SD (20x21.5x1.4mm) and microSD (15x11x1mm) in order to feed the demand of handset size minimization. Likewise, the MMC camp has also rolled out MMCmini (18x24x1.4mm) and MMCmicro (14x12.1.1mm) while MS also offers MS Duo (20x31x1.6mm) and MS Micro (15x12.5x1.2mm).
NAND to win ultimate success over NOR battle on constant technology advancement
When tracking the majority flash memory architectures that handsets designers could employ, the trend that the market share of NOR is sneaking from NAND is obvious. Developers are twisting around these architectures in order to preserve the natural benefit of NOR and to optimize the advantage of NAND at the meantime. We believe that the constant progress of NAND should eventually overcome the instability and relatively low data execution concerns over NOR with competitive cost structure.
XIP (execute-in-place)
XIP is a composite structure of NOR Flash and DRAM. A handset system executes program codes via NOR whiles some other program codes and data are managed by DRAM. The simple structure however comes along with the pricy cost and dismal data read/write speed of NOR (5s for writing a new phone number). XIP is relatively less competitive when more memory density is required to house multimedia-oriented applications.
Shadow Model
To overcome the cost and low data execution issues of NOR, some developers whom specialize on high-end handset designing employ Shadow model. Under this model, program codes are stored in NOR while most of the operation system is shadow over to DRAM. Advantages of this structure are the lower overall production cost of handset but weaknesses are the prolonged boot up time and higher power consumption amid the simultaneous operation of the memory.
Hybridized structure
Some memory makers are now introducing hybridized structure (mix of SRAM, NAND and control logic IC) to overcome the shortcomings of the above structures without scarifying the data execution speed of NOR and the storage advantage of NAND. M-Systems and Samsung are the two first introduce these hybridized devices. Samsung's 90nm made OneNAND houses an identical data read rate as NOR Flash at 108Mbyte/s while its write speed is 66 times of NOR's at 9.3Mbytes. M-System's DiskOnChip offers faster write performance than standard NOR but slower read speed.
www.dramexchange.com/img/content/weeklyinfo/special_report_20060502d.gif News Summary (Apr.26th~May 2ed)
May 2006
2006/5/02 Intel Called the World Ahead program, the effort essentially expands on other programs Intel has conducted to bring computing to countries like India and China, particularly to people who live in small cities and villages. Though India has become a software powerhouse, it's estimated that the country a year ago had only 14 PCs for every 1,000 people.Intel will provide equipment under the program as well as teacher training. The program will also let the company lay some of the groundwork for future sales as the markets in these nations mature. Intel, after all, entered China back in the 1980s and was able to capitalize on the growth of the tech industry in that country. WiMax--the long-range wireless networking standard heavily promoted by Intel--will figure prominently in the program. Overall, Intel is involved in 175 WiMax trials worldwide, a representative said. PCs, naturally, will also play a big part. The company is currently working on six different PCs that will come out during the next six years tuned for various geographies. Intel has already come out with a few PCs and software applications tailored for particular geographies. A PC for India unveiled last year, for instance, comes in a sealed case to keep out dust and runs off a car battery, important in a country where blackouts are a daily occurrence. Meanwhile, in China, Intel devised software to let managers of Internet cafes control their PCs easier. Paul Otellini, the company's CEO, is expected to sketch out the program further in a speech at the World Congress of IT, a biennial event taking place this week in Austin, Texas. Various companies and academics have put forth plans for bridging the digital divide. The ideas can roughly be broken down into four categories: more-rugged PCs promoted by Intel and Via Technologies; a cell phone that can be hooked into a phone or monitor, promoted by Microsoft; thin clients, touted by companies in India; and inexpensive devices that are similar to PCs. This is the so-called $100 laptop from MIT's Nicholas Negroponte.
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