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hey dead in here anything new the show got too episodes left whats every on think???
Good interview with CEO Mike Crowder
http://electric102.com/new/nickscott/spiketvs-coal-mike-crowders-interview-with-nick-scott
Ibox updated:
Updated current share structure (increase from Phase 1 Westchester Expansion Private Placement)
Also added charts. Will be tweaking on more as I get time.
Edit: looks like when I updated a lot of the links from the old website went away. The company just recently updated to their new site, so I'll fix when I can. Sorry for the troubles.
Haya, I apologize for not getting back to you sooner. I have been busy on some other plays that I am involved in at the moment. I believe that you can't value mining plays in the same manner as you do typical stocks. Sure some valuations can be placed on established companies, but these startup companies typically run more on key mile-stones and events and also just plain hype.
We currently have the hype from the show which will last a couple of months and also some pending news per Investor Relations on production status which should be coming in the next week or so based on my talks with Michael. Another key thing to remember is that this company is currently only at a fraction of their planned capacity. IMO, the company chose the smart route to sell their coal at a set price to keep cash-flow positive by allowing someone else to clean the coal for them. As they expand via the Westchester expansion, capacity will be much more than the current output and it's on the site, which means work can be grouped together (more with less).
Once the expansion is finalized, watch what happens to the share price... it'll run for sure. Should happen in quarter 3 of 2011. IR says hopefully Q2, but these things are rarely on target. Once the expansion is up and running the company can begin to eye either additional acquisitions or possibly, like you mentioned, cleaning their own coal to increase revenues.
Mike Crowder (CEO) invested a decent chunk of his own money via Private Placement just back in November 2010 in this company, so he has a vested interest in seeing it succeed. Watching operations on TV gives us a great insight into how this company is run and from what I saw of the first episode, they seem quite capable. I like the prospects here.
I thought the show was very well made. Keep in mind, this show was filmed quite a while ago and doesn't really reflect the day to day operations of the company in it's current position. I would expect the show to show the progression of the company over the 10 episode season. All in all, I was impressed with the production quality. The buzz on this is just getting started and I expect for it to continue as the season progresses. I only wish there were more episodes.
Sandwin are you following Cobalts US ticker CCCXF -
Also seeing as I am poor and unable to PM please email me
@ jeppspc@mac.com thanks for you guidance - Jgervasi1
Ameritrade and Zecco were not showing B/A this morning, though I assume one could still purchase; still not showing b/a...hmm, down today 0.0039 would have thought it went up some...heavy volume too
It depends on which broker you use. Some days are thinly traded, and I've had others say theat it didn't show up, I think Ameritrade is one, or etrade, cannot recall which.
Hello Moontears =) yeah I mentioned that I didn't include any effect the show will have in the stock price, I'm pretty sure as you say it will be a very positive effect, I think I should increase the P/E to show the effect of how the show will affect the stock price.
Also I reread the january news statement and the 7000 production target on the site and realized I crunched the numbers wrong XDDDD (actually I'm still probably crunching them wrong, I'm still trying to learn on how to valuate a stock) but now i get a much better more reasonable number for this year's target price.
I changed capacity %, grade %, basically anything to do with capacity, I think i underestimated their capacity by a lot, at first read I read that 650 raw tonnes per day was their capacity and now I realized that that's what they are producing currently or around there hopefully on avg. so with capacity up, and revised p/e of 8, my current this year target for cbt is 29 cents including what i estimate the effect of the show will be on the price but without including westchester expansion's effect.
Including that will turn it to (assuming double production and increased pe)....this yr target of 1.01
still concerned as to why they don't raise capital to implement a washplant so they have better control over their margins but I guess that comes after ramping up production?
I mean if they're able to produce their january stated expected target of 5000 kg/ton then they can produce 60000 clean tons a yr @ spot met coal = 250ish - 110 contract price = 140 / clean ton
so... 60,000 x 140 / clean ton = additional revenues of 8,400,000
uncaptured. Even if you say there are costs I believe IRR should still be pretty high... and there is even a bigger business case for this after they get concurrent production in the westchest expansion
I wish more people would discuss this stock with me =(
I have some good news.
Your buying a growing company with a TV show about it's miners coming on in less than 48 hours. The exposure alone, to millions of viewers is noteworthy. Many of it's peers are miners with less production and higher stock prices which have zero exposure. JMO
Hello everyone again =D I have some not so good news =(
As I have found some news releases with some numbers to base off of and more things have been made clear to me through further dd, I revised my eps outlook for Cbt though i dunno if that's the correct way to calculate stock price for cbt since it's a junior mining company.
I hope you don't think i'm bashing but with the new numbers I'm getting a target price of around 6 cents/share using 55 mil shares outstanding (i think this number has increased but i don't know to what) and p/e of 5 due to it being a relatively new company don't know whether results are solid or not though I know, other big buyers probably don't think as much of it.
my forward looking eps estimate is .012 for the year if there is no expansion and no further efficiency improvment since january's news release statements(current news statements and news articles lead me to believe grade of coal is around 33% with efficiency (% amount of full production capacity) at around 60%) I wish more news releases arrive so I can revise my numbers upwards.
However I believe they will invest in weschester expansion pt1 and there will be improvements on efficiency throughout the year and they will average an eps of .019 for the year and a revised p/e of 7 for anticipation of future revenues consequently a target price of 13.5 cents
The year after though it will be more interesting, I'm assuming no change to grade of coal, revised pricing contract to only hedge part of production at an yearly avg of 140(i made this one up) per clean ton of coal, increased annual avg efficiencies (from 60% to 80% capacity made this increase up due to faith in mgmt), concurrent production of both coal seams, increase in avg seam width (was assuming worst before, eg: 32inch compared to avg 40 afterwards also assuming increased throughput linking bottleneck to seam width.) and last assumption of concurrent production in jan 2012, and pe of 8
with those assumptions I get 0.92 2012 target price
if expansion, at first there will be a drop due to costs incurred for capital equipment purchases, and training new staff for the concurrent production but it should ramp up profits as efficiencies improve.
but my numbers do not take into account ANY effect the show COAL may have on cobalt coal corp. I'm pretty sure the effect will be very good and very positive but I expect a lot of pump and dumpers to start showing up once the interest generates a substantial market for trading (volume wise)
Also im going to make a note here to myself if cobalt coal corp has a conference call, can someone please ask mike or whoever knows what the bottleneck and critical control points are for the mining operation right now and how they are being addressed. And how they are addressing health and safety issues identified throughout the show (without hampering production) as I read that regulatory authorities are going to be harder on the mine once the show has aired. I'd ask myself but I usually work during those type of hours and can't phone in to listen or ask a question.
I'm also looking forward to announcements of future projects other than the westchester area even though it'd make sense for them to try to acquire 100% interest for as many of the properties there as possible first to make the most use of the capital equipment, and trained staff... and I don't see them exploring anytime soon but I hope they prove me wrong and stake some claims somewhere =D (and mine for something that uses the same processes as mining coal but a different mineral so they retain the expertise but diversify the risks since I don't think met coal will go up forever next few years I think but after that who knows?) then it can be a true speculative junior miner. oh btw philosophy I saw you have some posts on another board i found this afternoon, I believe it was hsm or something? but i'm not going to reg for that yet and post anything, maybe I will later though! =D
I'm in the US too, I just prefer the liquidity offered by buying the TSX version. The commission is double on entry and exit, but well worth it for my style of investing. Great day here... looking for this to continue it's march up to the high teens. Big time exposure is just beginning here.
I own CCCXF, the US stock for Cobalt. Hiya, haya! To your question I started late last year buying the CCCXF ticker, I have not gotten any CBT, though I support it, too. PhilosophyAskew and I met here on Ihub, so not sure of his(/her?) length of ownership. I was doing DD on metal mines, when I found this. I remember watching a stock which had a Racing TV show on Spike run 1250% a few years ago. That show had a poor production quality and a bad time slot. "Coal" has a proven producer (his "Deadliest Catch" was awesome!) and good time slot(10 pm est Mar 30), So it's a gamble with some exact time lines for results IMO. Good job scratching some #s, BTW, haya.
OK I did a calculation, used many many assumptions and made up some numbers, but based on that, I estimate that fair pricing would be 0.29, and when westchester part 2 is put into production alongside part 1 and they exceed production expectations and if they can get better pricing for their contracts, 1.97, if no pricing changes 1.28, if no pricing nor double shift .52
Yeah I spoke with one of the new IR hires as well last weekend, much better than the last IR person, howard or something... I had to look him up, email him, then he told me to phone the operations manager at the mine for details, but I couldn't since it was during my work hours =(
I bought a small position today.
=)
I'm going to try to model out a profit estimate model tonight for cobalt.
How long have you and Moonstears have been following cobalt, I first started the day it announced that operations were temporarily suspended last year in the summer. I bought a very small position then and When september came along do you guys remember that their website news feed was filled with spam? At that point in time I thought that cobalt was over but it came back, announced so many things and I was very impressed with management's leadership through the crisis!
Anyways I'm going to go try to make a model now, I'm not that good at this so all my numbers should not be used to make or be an influence on any investment decisions!
Volume and overall interest looks to be improving. I spoke with the New IR hire and was very impressed with what he had to say. I think we have good things headed our way...
The show is only the beginning here. The real gains will be made once the Westchester Expansion is completed. I also expect some other acquisitions will happen over the next year or 2. This a terrific buy and hold.
US price action on the other Cobalt board here:
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=squote&symbol=cccxf
CCCXF board thanks PhilosophyAskew new assistant moderator.
No valuation info from me, but did post on Yahoo, about th CCCXF board. To me there's valuation to be seen in TV show's promo alone. If the show's as interesting as it seems, I'd think we'll see interest. I personally haven't crunched #s. I don't trade the CBT ticker, just the CCCXF in the USA, but glad to see this board, best to all.
Not sure where you got that valuation from. I do feel that if Cobalt executes the plan that they've outlined they could be a company with a dollar or more share price. Here is a post that I made about a month ago on another board. This will get you started. I will answer your question in much more detail soon as much more info has come to light since that time. There is a lot to be excited about here... management has been fairly poor at getting news to shareholders, but that will change with the new IR hire. My thoughts are Cobalt is a company that is run with great management and is poised for growth.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59870978
Hey, I noticed someone's post on yahoo msg boards and came here since no one talks over there.
I haven't really done proper calculations yet but I'm interested in how you got numbers like over a dollar with approval of westchester expansion and 20something cents fair value.
I'll do my calculations sometime within the next 7 days and buy a position or something.
Nice rebound here today. Only word for this company at the moment... Undervalued.
SPIKE TV's COAL homepage:
Tons of great clips of the show and tons of other info. Well worth taking a look at. Series Premiere is 3/30/2011
http://www.spike.com/shows/coal
COAL Homepage on Spike:
http://www.spike.com/shows/coal/
Cobalt Coal Corp. Announces Engagement of Investor Relations Consultant
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - March 9, 2011) - Cobalt Coal Corp. ("Cobalt" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:CBT), is pleased to announce the engagement of Mr. Michael Marshall to provide investor relations activities for the Corporation. Mr. Marshall will assist the Corporation by providing introductions to investment groups and individuals and assisting the Corporation with investor and shareholder communications. Pursuant to the terms of the agreement (the "Agreement") dated as of March 7, 2011 between the Corporation and Mr. Marshall, the Corporation will grant Mr. Marshall 150,000 options at an exercise price of $0.11 per common share, will pay a monthly retainer of $5,000 and will reimburse Mr. Marshall for any reasonable expenses incurred. The Agreement is for a twelve (12) month term, which commenced on March 1, 2011.
Mr. Michael Marshall has worked with numerous clients ranging from mining, technology and oil and gas assisting them in their Investor Outreach Programs. Mr. Marshall has built strong relationships within the North American investment community as well as building strong relationships internationally.
The appointment of Mr. Marshall and the granting of the options is subject to TSX Venture Exchange approval.
About Cobalt:
Cobalt is a publicly traded coal exploration and production company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada with a regional office in Welch, West Virginia USA. Cobalt was created in August 2007 to capitalize on the growth opportunities that exist in the modem metallurgical coal mining industry.
This news release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements or information are based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by Cobalt. The forward-looking statements or information contained in this news release are made as of the date hereof and Cobalt does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.
NEITHER TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE NOR ITS REGULATION/SERVICE PROVIDER (AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED IN THE POLICIES OF THE TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE) ACCEPTS RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THIS RELEASE.
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Cobalt-Coal-Corp-Announces-Engagement-of-Investor-Relations-Consultant-TSX-VENTURE-CBT-1408950.htm
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