Hello Moontears =) yeah I mentioned that I didn't include any effect the show will have in the stock price, I'm pretty sure as you say it will be a very positive effect, I think I should increase the P/E to show the effect of how the show will affect the stock price.
Also I reread the january news statement and the 7000 production target on the site and realized I crunched the numbers wrong XDDDD (actually I'm still probably crunching them wrong, I'm still trying to learn on how to valuate a stock) but now i get a much better more reasonable number for this year's target price.
I changed capacity %, grade %, basically anything to do with capacity, I think i underestimated their capacity by a lot, at first read I read that 650 raw tonnes per day was their capacity and now I realized that that's what they are producing currently or around there hopefully on avg. so with capacity up, and revised p/e of 8, my current this year target for cbt is 29 cents including what i estimate the effect of the show will be on the price but without including westchester expansion's effect.
Including that will turn it to (assuming double production and increased pe)....this yr target of 1.01
still concerned as to why they don't raise capital to implement a washplant so they have better control over their margins but I guess that comes after ramping up production?
I mean if they're able to produce their january stated expected target of 5000 kg/ton then they can produce 60000 clean tons a yr @ spot met coal = 250ish - 110 contract price = 140 / clean ton
so... 60,000 x 140 / clean ton = additional revenues of 8,400,000
uncaptured. Even if you say there are costs I believe IRR should still be pretty high... and there is even a bigger business case for this after they get concurrent production in the westchest expansion
I wish more people would discuss this stock with me =(
