Andy Bear Picks

[surf1944]

Still staying away from the short side, but after the 1st quarter of 2024 it may be time to go 100% short!

[surf1944]

The shorts funds may pay off hugely this coming week with the coming next "banking crisis"

[surf1944]

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p3809067389

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=qid&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38090673899

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=sqqq&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38090673899

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=sdow&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38090673899

Short funds looking for another run!

[surf1944]

Back into short funds this past week!

[surf1944]

Negative action today, the market fall may increase in the push down to much lower levels!.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=36&dy=0&id=p38090673899

[surf1944]

The markets are back to recent lows, if they do not hold here, another large push down is coming!

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=16&dy=0&id=p38090673899

[surf1944]

Still heavily on the short side!

[surf1944]

The test of 30K on the DOW may come quick!

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=16&dy=0&id=p38090673899

[surf1944]

The markets have reversed likely to test last month's lows!

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=16&dy=0&id=p38090673899

[surf1944]

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=16&dy=0&id=p38090673899

We are getting closer to going back short the market as we move toward the 200 DMA on the Nasdaq & DOW.

[surf1944]

That pop and drop in the markets this morning was very negative!

The DOW could fall to the 200 week moving average at 29125, Nasdaq 200 week average is 10683.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tza&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38090673899

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=16&dy=0&id=p38090673899

[surf1944]

The short funds are setting up to attempt to break this years high!

The DOW could fall to the 200 week moving average at 29125, Nasdaq 200 week average is 10683.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tza&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38090673899

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=16&dy=0&id=p38090673899

[surf1944]

The DOW could fall to the 200 week moving average at 28706, Nasdaq 200 week average is 10425.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=16&dy=0&id=p38090673899

[surf1944]

The DOW could fall to the 200 week moving average at 28448

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=16&dy=0&id=p38090673899

[surf1944]

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/let-the-wild-rumpus-begin/

This Bear market could last for years, in both stock and housing markets!

[surf1944]

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tza&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38090673899

The short funds may finally be breaking out of the current bottoming move, broke above the 200/50 DMA for the third time, if it holds above them they can double or triple from here.

[surf1944]

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tza&p=D&yr=0&mn=12&dy=0&id=p38090673899

The short funds have been basing for most of the year, the funds have been tradable short term plays during that time, it seems as if we may finally break out of that trading pattern with a strong move down in the major trading averages.

[surf1944]

Loaded again with short funds!

[surf1944]

Just bought back many of the shorts funds for another short bounce, one day soon it will be a more continuous move!

[surf1944]

Back to the short side, markets are as overpriced has they have been in my trading lifetime!

[surf1944]

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?sdjia&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38090673899

Looking to get short again, huge gap at 28500 on the DOW that will get filled sometime in the first Q 2021

[surf1944]

Bought into the big gap down on TECS, TZA & FAZ!

[surf1944]

Trading is the game now both long/short, the easy money has been made on the short side, you have to work for the $$$ now! I am still leaning toward the short side and selling any big up moves. I hope you have a profitable trading week.

surf

[andrius]

crazy times! hope you been crushing it. think I had my best month ever. not so much just nailing downside with bias. just flipping intraday moves.

[surf1944]

Bought back into some short funds this morning!

[surf1944]

18000 DOW target, where the trump rally began!

[surf1944]

Shorting on any major rally up!

[surf1944]

The weekly support level was crushed at 23500 on the DOW, next support level is around 18000

[surf1944]

The 23500 area is the last big support line for the DOW and most averages are at similar areas, taking most short positions off the table, could have a big reversal today or tomorrow!

[surf1944]

Looking for a trad-able bottom on the weekly DOW chart at 23500

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=16&dy=0&id=p38090673899

[surf1944]

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tza&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38090673899


2020 looking to be on the "short side" this year!

[surf1944]

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tza&p=D&yr=0&mn=36&dy=0&id=p38090673899

Many of short funds are setting up to make a run on their recent highs!

[andrius]

Harbs moved to UT so I might stop though visit him. Park City is on my Ikon pass. Always had epic pass but all the mountains in Tahoe area on it close 3rd week in April. Last year bought Ikon pass in spring that has Squaw and Mammoth on it, two mountains that stay open until July 4th usually.

Love Mammoth area. Last spring spent 2-3 weeks out there. Build a couple nice camp spots deep down some dirt roads. If drive up a little higher on mountain get great 4G service. So I'd work till 11 then go snowboard until 4. Then catch some trout for dinner in creeks. After dinner go chill in hot springs. Rinse repeat day after day.

CA is expensive almost everywhere, been looking around last year. You'd probably find affordable spots that'd fit your bill in Siskiyou county. Gets remote but beautiful mountains and elevation high enough for snow so there is rivers and some lakes.

[beachcomber1]

Currently, Bend OR. Mt Bachelor is less than a 30 minute drive. Looking at property in Brian's Head. Park City is too pricey for me. Hell, looking in N CA also. I need mountains, mature trees, & water. Oh wait. Must have Internet to trade. Lol.

Damn man. Good for you for still hitting the sloops! I'm jealous.

NFLX I'm going to reach out a couple weeks, minimally, for more puts. I think analysts will defend their price targets until "the boys" pull out. Just my 2 cents worth. Futures are up. They have a mission. That algo spike today was insane. May as well been a Tweet. Phew.

[andrius]

which ski town? In Chicago at the moment but will be heading west soon. Got Epic and Ikon pass. Will stop in CO on way back. Probably do Abasin, Beaver Creek, Vail and Snowmass. Maybe do night skiing couple nights at Keystone if not too beat on way back to Denver. Couple days in UT. Snowbird and Park City most likely. Then back to CA. Hearing Tahoe getting dumped. Get most days in at Kirkwood and Heavenly during the year. I am sure will get at least half dozen days at Mammoth later spring when other mountains close.

[beachcomber1]

As am I. Most rooms suck, but I'm OK where I'm at. Some heavy hitters that are not screwing around.

Are you still hitting the slopes? I moved to a Ski town & yet I can't ski again this year. Just here for the Sites, apparently. I miss the surf.

[andrius]

been around just don't come on ihub much. mostly in live chat, bit more useful and quicker than msg board.

[beachcomber1]

Are you back to trading full time? I shifted boards on you. Lol. Sip. Now I'm good

[surf1944]

Great! I hope you have been as well! It looks like the charts are looking for the next leg down on the DJIA and next leg up for the short funds! I have been moving back into many of the short funds this week.

surf

[andrius]

this bounce to near 50 dma indexes looks like good spot to sell or start establishing short positions. SPY/QQQ could try for 200 dma but given whole picture seems like finally good short swing opportunity given r/r. First time in a decade? I know there were a couple times 200 dma failed followed by big reversal but not sure likely here.

[surf1944]

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=26&dy=0&id=p38090673899

The markets could have hard times come the first of the year! The next support line is 20600 at the 200 DMA, breaks that then 18000 area.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tza&p=D&yr=0&mn=26&dy=0&id=p38090673899

[andrius]

Bend nice! Was in area for eclipse. There were lot of fires in the area.

[beachcomber1]

Doing good. Just focused on Options. Made a big move to Bend, OR

[andrius]

been around just not this board. Been doing excellent. Nutty market out there. Ops all over. Cryptos totally insane. Pots sort of awoke a bit too. How you been?

[beachcomber1]

You're back! How goes it?

[surf1944]

Longs are going to have their money taken, not sure when, but in the coming months it should begin. We will not know what that catalysis is until it appears and then they say "they saw it coming".

I have been good, made a lot of coin on the long this year, next year I believe it will be made on the short side.

surf

[andrius]

How you been? Man what a crazy market. Haven't bothered to look to swing short anything for awhile but thinking to start looking at some options soon.

[surf1944]

Buying some short ETF's, the market is going to come apart again, it has been nearly ten years since the last time. There is a long list of reasons why it could, can & will!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tza&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38090673899

[andrius]

BTW today I made only 1 trade short, some days its 100+ short trades. 1500 DRYS short 5.26 and covered way early 5.16 for $142 after commissions. I did flip 15M PSID .0008 to .0009-.001 for $2,500 gain. Again you'll probably tell me pink sheets are a losing proposition but whatever I am ok with $3,000+ day.

Bottom line is there are a thousand ways to make money in the market. Your self righteous opinion is not needed on this board.

[andrius]

I am sorry you are terrible trader and never learned how to short. I have a college buddy that invested a 2M inheritance in long higher risk mutual funds. He cashed out a 1.5M loss near lows and hasn't dipped his toes in markets since. lol

I am not your college buddy and Warren Buffet doesn't day trade(in case you missed it again its what I do). 95% of day traders fail within 1 year. I been doing this for almost 2 decades. What you think is right for me does not apply. My approach to market is completely different to yours and it has worked for me for 20 years. There is no need for you to save me from making money.