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~CREE Weekly Chart~
long term play w/ target pps @60.73+- on the Falling Wedge (Reversal) and/or diamond bottom (pattern) in play
Diamond Bottom (Pattern)
http://thepatternsite.com/diamondb.html
Falling Wedge (Reversal)
The falling wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout.
The falling wedge can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the falling wedge will still slope down, but the slope will be against the prevailing uptrend. As a reversal pattern, the falling wedge slopes down and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), falling wedges are regarded as bullish patterns.
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_revers
Well by reading your posts and looking at the time frames, you definitely have my respect and the respect of a few other traders I know that do not post often.
The more info you provide, the more I will read and try to absorb. Let me know when you find another MELI 
Until then....do what you do no matter what other people say.
~ISTA~ June 10 calls looking good
~AGP~ June 70 calls looking good
Conservative option plays = covered LEAP's
...All three of these plays have pretty good Called & uncalled potential return vs. Risk...(btw, I edited it ,but it's long the January's and short the June's)
I am short-term bearish, but Im not going to completely sit-on-hands...In a situation like this...Cover some LEAP's (trade @ your own risk)
~ACAS~ update...price projection met...
The power of Technical Analysis...When I put some of these price projections on the chart, some may feel like it's voodoo or just a guess...In a way they are right, it is a guess...just a guess that has a higher probability due to methodology...
How many times do I have to make these kinds of precise predictions for some to say..."you know what, this trader is on to something"...
Just a quick look at some of the calls on this board reveals a lot...There are very few eyes here...The boardmarks can mislead many into thinking that the information here is unimportant...
Sometimes the most powerful things are out of the light of the mainstream...Dont be fooled...The truth cannot hide here...Check the dates/times & prices of some of the calls here...I've only shared maybe 10% of actual trading...even that 10% is profitable...
COT reports combined with charting...
This weeks COT report is a little distorted, but it was enough to make me increase Bearish positions 10 - 1 (& holding over weekend)...
This weeks secret is the Other Reportables positioning (= traders big enough to have to report their positions to the CFTC = smart money)
They heavily increased their short positions and Long VIX holdings this week bringing the Net positions 7-1 biased to the short side (btw,thats really unusual)...
The chart backs up this kind of positioning...Today's huge bearish reversal Bear Hammer, the rise up to but not exceeding the 45 descending Gann angle,extended MACD turning negative,etc,etc,etc...My minimum target is of course around the 50dma (which is also at a cluster of possible support areas)...If we break past that then it could get really ugly...
No trade is guaranteed...but some trades have a very high probability of success...Trade @ your own risk...And recognize when a trader is giving you the Real...
...lol...some traders think that charting is just a joke or voodoo B$...let them keep thinking that...
...in the mean time........YAH!!! YAH!!!
Yeah I caught bottom...
~SPX~Warning:
Just wanted to show a few circles...Possible heads up...
Second week is usually worse than the initial candlestick...
Just to let it be known, I am 100% cash strapped until further confirmation...
...I am in heaven right now...
...I have to get this {Trader-related-stress} taken care of...
...Trader Mathematics...
1)Take my initial and put that to the side...
2)Put 30% over here for april 15th
3)Put 20% back into the kitty (initial)
4)Take the remaining 80% and splurge...
Well folks...it's about that time...If you haven't noticed, I've been silently stacking for the last last three months (= trading my A$$ off night & day)...I had a few bad days...but the good exceeds the bad by multiples...
One thing that I learned in this life, is that you have to take advantage of the good times while you can...I am heading to Utah this morning to attend a week long Technical Analysis Seminar (a bunch of live trading & bouncing ideas off of each other)...continuing education is very important to me...keeps the mind fresh...
...after that, I'm going to do a little traveling and enjoy some of this free money... ...I dont know exactly when I'll be back...I am a pretty good poker player so sometimes my little vacations last longer than first planned...(people just enjoy giving me $$$...LOL)
...you know without a shadow of a doubt that I absolutely love the markets and T/A...I will be back, you can bet on that...
...I shared some pretty heavy material in the sticky post's on this board...I figured I would give a little something extra to the few people that have been watching me trade...
...When I come back, it will be more of the same...I will trade like Commando for several months, rinse wash & repeat...
My mind will drift toward the markets Im sure...but I will keep myself surrounded by very distracting things...
I follow the best...(Jesse Livermore)...he often walked away from the markets to clear his head... ...not a bad idea, especially when you're winning...
Good Trading to you my friends...I look forward to the next round of taking this market by STORM!!!
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Everyone trading next week should take a close look at these two charts...These come from my personal Excel workbooks...
If you are thinking about being short this market next week...theres something that you should know...There was a huge move in the COT reports this week...The NET Buying Positions had a huge jump up in the S&P500 Futures only contracts...
I am going to explain what actually happened...then you can contemplate this and make your own conclusions...
This past week, Big Leveraged Funds (Hedge Funds) covered massive amounts of short positions...Usually, these are the very astute traders (smart money)...For them to cover that big of a short position tells me only one thing...They were extremely scared of those positions... ...This also tells me that the markets will continue to rise, and quite possibly rise very high in a very short time period... ...something big is about to happen, and it is most likely bullish... ...maybe they know of a potential announcement of a QE3 or something...who know's...that's just speculation...But I come here today with Facts!!!
See for yourself...(pay particular close attention to the Leveraged funds Sort positions last week compared to this week)
Notice also that the Open Interest went way down (OI)...It was Commercial Market Makers that soaked these covered short positions up...
If you dont trust my #'s, then you can go Here and get your own:
LINK: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
I have no idea why I keep sharing so much crucial trading information here...I guess I love this site...
...lol...
Fibonacci chart lessons...what they dont teach...
...and a nice little short as an added bonus...
...yes, it is a play...but if you look deeper, it's also a message...
...just look at all the mathematical consistencies...
Lee, do you remember this ~LFUS~ trade...both strategies worked out pretty well...I know that you probably didnt play it (definitely illiquid)...but even these work sometimes...the original price target was reached and exceeded today...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=60383622&txt2find=6979
~VHC~ = monster...yesterdays alert paid off really well...
(compliments to Buddiee18 for alerting me to it initially)
I seen the double bottom breakout and didn't hesitate pulling the trigger...
...the apr 17's went up over 400%...1 day
...the may 17's went up over 125%...1 day
...pattern recognition is extremely important...if one only looked at the intra-day chart, they may have assumed it had ran too far as many probably did...the daily chart revealed a much different picture...the probability of this kind of breakout being successful is about 70/30...those are good odds for option trading...
S&P getting a little support at its 50dma...a bounce is expected there...but follow through is another story...this may take a few days to play out...My posture remains bearish for now...the key S&P chart is the daily imo,if it gets a strong close above the triangle pattern, I will re-evaluate my stance...The real test is whether it can break above the 50% channel line...Thats what I am watching...If it breaks above the mid-channel I would turn very bullish near-term...
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3 ~S&P~ charts that will = $$$$$$$$$$$$$ tomorrow
...tomorrow = ~TVIX~ day...
If anyone is riding ~TVIX~ or ~VXX~ with me (the stop is directly above the triangle, seen on the daily chart)
~VHC~
~ACAS~ chart...interesting projection...
~NCT~ potential Buy/calls
~CMO~ potential short/put
My Excel Spreadsheet (Risk Management){shared}
My new spreadsheet = now I can keep track of Stocks,Options, and Futures trades (Long & Short) all in one worksheet...
(with options , you have to move the decimal point over 2 #'s to make it work...& 4 #'s for Futures)
{example:if an option is .45, you have to input the trade as 45.00...It will also differentiate between long and Short trades simply by putting a L or an S in the (Long or Short)column...
Its not perfect,but it really helps me keep track of my trade history...(remember, Im not an Excel expert)...the only problem is inputting data on an open trade skews the #'s in the blue box...its probably best to enter the entire position once closed...Other than that, it works really well...the # in the blue box are not correct because I have open trades on my sheet...until you close the trade it counts the position as a loss...
these trades are real...as you see..I never risk more than 3% of my portfolio...Never...the most important column for me is the Portfolio Risk column...and of course the % of winners & Losers... ...It really brings your game up when you make a spread sheet like this...Trading is a competition against yourself...You have to constantly keep an eye on yourself so you dont lose control...this is a good way to do that...
...here it is...trade well my friends...
...in the second image, Im sharing the formulas that you will have to input into Excel if you would like to use it...
~BODY~ Huge update + a little self-horn-tooting...LOL...
(link back to the message this post is responding to)
...I only shared this play with this board...if you notice, I dont post a whole lot of charts on this board...(unless I actually have a position)... ...Mostly, I am a Technical trader...but I do perform extensive fundamental analysis as well...
...every now & again, T/A & F/A unite and form something special...It is these situations that I am looking for...{for the record,I dont own any ~BODY~}...It doesnt have options so I back-burner-ed it...knowing that it had all the same key elements of ~LULU~...
...Im only writing this post to express that I am very instinctual in terms of calculated position selections...
...someone recently told me that my entry/exits are very rapid...Its not that Im trying to trade quickly...its just that many times my targets are met very quickly...timing is extremely important...
...a pattern is developing here on this board...I pick a position, and very soon after, there is a big price move...more times than not...the price swing is exactly the way I called it...
...after a certain period of time goes by...Im hoping that people start to realize that it isn't blind luck here on this board...I show a nice chart with a price & a general target...but there is a whole lot more that goes on in terms of Due diligence behind the scenes...Im not throwing darts at the newspaper...
(LOL...I ramble on & on sometimes when I drink....excuse me...dam am I writing a book?)...you guys have a good weekend...{all 22 of you...LOL)
...LOL...Nat Gas 4.413...
...$teak tonite...
~SMOD~ 4 hour chart...beauty4sure...
...~6979~ Reiterating Buy...LOL...
...Long Nat Gas @4.272...dam...I traded it last night but took the quick profit...I just paid way more than I sold it last night...
...Bullish is Bullish...
~FNSR~ playing for a bounce...apr 25 calls
~SMOD~ wkly...= Inverted Head & Shoulders
...the fundamentals are strong...I really like this one...might not happen as fast as I would like, but it looks like a big breakout is coming...gl
~SMOD~
...LOL...took me all night...but ,Im green...now for some shut eye only to awake and do it all over again...
...so many things to trade...$tick-to-it-ive-ness & patience will always persevere...
...on a side note...crushing the Euro E-Mini...LOL...
...tight stop...Im not giving back anything today...
~NVDA~...(special situation)...heads up 4 tomorrow...
...;)...
...come to me Black G0ld...105.5...
...been waiting patiently for Dayzzzzzzzzzz$$$$$$$$$$$...
...LOL...I dont know if any of you realize what almost just happened to me...but I got lucky 2 say the lea.$t...chalk up another $1150, my way...
...phew...
averaging down on NatGas...(not recommended)...remember I have a big cushion to play with...my new average is 4.1526
...should get a nice bounce from here...
Re-entereing Nat Gas @ 4.18...unbelievable...so many opportunities back 2 back 2 back...
...and that my friends is how you scalp $1125 in 15 minutes...
...LOL...I dont play...
"...there are three things that really make an excellent Trader... Self-Control ...Peripheral Vision ... & Depth Perception ..." ~6979~}{ 2-22-11
