iShares FTSE Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI)

[Myself °¿°]

Chinese New Year is the longest and most important celebration in the Chinese calendar.
The Chinese year 4706 begins on Feb. 7, 2008.

Chinese months are reckoned by the lunar calendar, with each month beginning on the darkest day. New Year festivities traditionally start on the first day of the month and continue until the fifteenth, when the moon is brightest. In China, people may take weeks of holiday from work to prepare for and celebrate the New Year.

Fireworks and Family Feasts
At Chinese New Year celebrations people wear red clothes, decorate with poems on red paper, and give children "lucky money" in red envelopes. Red symbolizes fire, which according to legend can drive away bad luck. The fireworks that shower the festivities are rooted in a similar ancient custom. Long ago, people in China lit bamboo stalks, believing that the crackling flames would frighten evil spirits.

The Lantern Festival
In China, the New Year is a time of family reunion. Family members gather at each other's homes for visits and shared meals, most significantly a feast on New Year's Eve. In the United States, however, many early Chinese immigrants arrived without their families, and found a sense of community through neighborhood associations instead. Today, many Chinese-American neighborhood associations host banquets and other New Year events.

Chinese New Year ends with the lantern festival on the fifteenth day of the month. Some of the lanterns may be works of art, painted with birds, animals, flowers, zodiac signs, and scenes from legend and history. People hang glowing lanterns in temples, and carry lanterns to an evening parade under the light of the full moon.

In many areas the highlight of the lantern festival is the dragon dance. The dragon—which might stretch a hundred feet long—is typically made of silk, paper, and bamboo. Traditionally the dragon is held aloft by young men who dance as they guide the colorful beast through the streets. In the United States, where the New Year is celebrated with a shortened schedule, the dragon dance always takes place on a weekend. In addition, many Chinese-American communities have added American parade elements such as marching bands and floats.

The Chinese Calendar
The Chinese lunisolar calendar is divided into 12 months of 29 or 30 days. The calendar is adjusted to the length of the solar year by the addition of extra months at regular intervals. The years are arranged in major cycles of 60 years. Each successive year is named after one of 12 animals. These 12-year cycles are continuously repeated. The Chinese New Year is celebrated at the second new moon after the winter solstice and falls between January 21 and February 19 on the Gregorian calendar. The year 2007 translates to the Chinese year 4704–4705. The year 2008 translates to the Chinese year 4705–4706.

Rat	Ox	Tiger	Rabbit	Dragon	Snake	Horse	Sheep	Monkey	RoosterDog	Pig 
 							(Goat)				 
 1900	1901	1902	1903	1904	1905	1906	1907	1908	1909	1910	1911 
 1912	1913	1914	1915	1916	1917	1918	1919	1920	1921	1922	1923 
 1924	1925	1926	1927	1928	1929	1930	1931	1932	1933	1934	1935 
 1936	1937	1938	1939	1940	1941	1942	1943	1944	1945	1946	1947 
 1948	1949	1950	1951	1952	1953	1954	1955	1956	1957	1958	1959 
 1960	1961	1962	1963	1964	1965	1966	1967	1968	1969	1970	1971 
 1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983 
 1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995 
 1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007 
 2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019 
 

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0002076.html

[frenchee]

FXP starting to pop...10+% today...

[frenchee]

Looks like 163 is going to be tested...

[frenchee]

My WAG is the 100-day SMA doesn't hold but FXI should get a bounce around the 170-day EMA which will also be around the 61.8% retracement level drawn from mid Aug until late Oct.

GL on whatever you decide to do!

[Myself °¿°]

any support @100sma or is AG trying to tank it to the 200sma














I tried shorting it once with real bad timing but would like to go long sometime soon
Thoughts? Thanks!

[99Dan]

China Mobile (CHL) accounts for over 10% of assets in FXI fund.

Today's news
Apple, China Mobile Discuss China IPhone

#msg-24502526

[teknobucks]

chinese stuff with a good pe is a buy here ;)







actually i just need help with my underwater position in snp....lol



good luck 2 all

[frenchee]

UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25
http://www.proshares.com/funds/fxp.html

[frenchee]

time to get back in?

[frenchee]

It's Not the Time for China by Mike Kahn

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119302288679566791.html?mod=b_hps_9_0001_b_online_exclusives_wee...

WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE CURRENT RALLY in Chinese stocks has been a wonderful experience for those clairvoyant enough to buy into it in 2005. Indeed, it ranks up there with such market phenomena as the technology explosion in 1999-2000 and the Japanese market rally in the 1980s. (For another take on the topic, see last week's Barron's article, "Just How High Can China's Shares Fly?")

But as with those two examples of financial insanity from the past, the question now being asked is whether Chinese stocks are in a bubble or is the rally simply the market manifestation of an economic juggernaut. To me, the latter sounds like the highly questionable "new economy" mantra we heard in 2000.

The problem, however, with slapping the term "bubble" on any market is that the public does not fully appreciate the condition until it bursts. As stock prices are rising, the fundamentals look good and we read about trade surpluses, an insatiable appetite for raw materials such as oil and copper and the flood of investment capital coming in. And from the technical perspective, the trends across the board in Chinese stocks remain up.

So far, so good but as they say, "trees don't grow to the sky," meaning that at some point reality catches up with perception. Earnings growth will not continue on its sizzling pace and investors will wake up to the fact that they cannot extrapolate current price performance into the future.

Too much emphasis is being placed on the bubble classification for a simple reason that it does not help us decide what to do about it. Accelerating rallies, a.ka. bubbles, can continue a lot longer than any investor, or central bank, for that matter, can resist them.

For example, a chart of the benchmark Shanghai composite "A" index shows a parabolic rise over the past few years with more than a 111% gain in 2007 alone (see Chart 1). As can be seen on the chart, trendlines cannot describe the rally properly, even on a chart with a logarithmic, or percent change, price scale.

Chart 1



Logic says that buying at such inflated levels is the wrong move but on the flip side of that argument parabolic markets can bankrupt bears if they sell even one day too early. Risk is high on both sides of the trade.

Investors is this country are more likely to have exposure to China through the popular ETF based on the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index. Unfortunately, it is somewhat of a misrepresentation in that the index tracks Chinese related stocks trading in Hong Kong, not China itself and the chart is quite different (see Chart 2).

Chart 2



While Shanghai has gained 10-fold since 2004, the ETF has "only" quadrupled, despite its meteoric rise since this past summer. This is not a knock on the ETF as a way to chart the fortunes of Chinese stocks in general. Rather, it is just a warning that it is a slightly different animal.

In looking at the recent run-up in Hong Kong, we can see that it has pulled back significantly in recent days. Momentum readings on the ETF show a clear decline and typically that presages a correction, such as the one now in progress.

This brings us back to the idea that we cannot pick a top in a market that looks this bubbly but since we are talking about a market that is already 10% off its peak we can feel a bit more confident something has changed this month.

Because the ETF is very active, we can analyze its volume for confirmation. Over the past two weeks, volume swelled as it often does at turning points. And most importantly, trading on October 17 saw a huge rally to an all-time high on record high volume. It has been all downhill since and that suggests that the market has seen a blow-off to the rally. The appeal of chasing the market higher is apparently gone, at least for now.

Is it a bubble? Maybe. What investors have to do is let the market tell them when it has turned as indicators line up together and prices actually start to fall. So far, the Chinese market ETF has made a short-term reversal to add to the idea that the bull market is ready to rest.

We'll end with a long-term chart to show that even a severe correction now may pave the way for bargains next year as prices move down to a more sustainable rising trend (see Chart 3).

Chart 3



Bubbles don't rest, they burst. If the China phenomenon is truly a bubble then prices will fall a great distance for a long-time, somewhat mirroring their rise. If China is not a bubble and just an overheated market then we can expect a correction that unfolds in a more subdued manner and not last very long.

Either way, my view is that the time for throwing money at anything Chinese is either past or on hold. Without betting against China, we can still keep our powder dry for the next buying opportunity.

[frogfan]

I will get back in if there is a pullback, but China has been too hot for me to feel good adding in the 180s...just wish I'd held on to some of my shares that's all. China is crazy, and now I know that, hadn't really followed it much until this year....

[frenchee]

Welcome Dan

[99Dan]

FXI

Top 10 holdings:

Company name…………………………… % Net assets
China Mobile Ltd……………………….........10.45%
China Life Insurance…………………………...8.91%
PetroChina…………………………………….. 7.84%
Indl & Commrcl Bk Of China………………….5.84%
China Construction Bank…………………….. 5.82%
Ping An Insurance (Grp) Co of China Ltd……5.37%
China Shenhua Energy………………………..4.52%
China Merchants Bank………………………..4.11%
CNOOC Ltd……………………………………..3.99%
China Communications Construction ………..3.86%


Regarding China Mobil, see:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=10608

[99Dan]

I bought this one about 2 weeks ago at 150 and plan to hold for a long time. Wish I had seen it around the time of the last pullback.

I didn't know this board was here until today. I'll be keeping an eye on the board.

[frenchee]

you getting back in then?

[frogfan]

so much for that pullback...should have just hold on to this one...sold when it slid from 130s, still made about 20% on this one, but would be up 65% or so right now if I'd have just held on...now even with a drastic pull back don't think we'll see this one at 150 anytime soon...

[frenchee]

Looks like the pullback is starting...check out the rolling over top relative to the upper trend line in the daily charts on the ibox.

[frogfan]

I unforunately sold this one when it started to slide a couple weeks ago, and missed it when it bottomed and ran back up to new highs...am waiting for a pullback to get back in....

[frenchee]

What's your next target frogfan?

[frogfan]

this thing is a machine...150 in no time

[frenchee]

Go for it!

[Stock]

Someone should adopt this thread as moderator

[frenchee]

Both daily and weekly charts showing loss of "mo." I'd hate to be long FXI now...

[frenchee]

Elmer Phud. ...Good short-term short opportunity soon at hand. Check out the ibox charts...

[Elmer Phud]

Hi Frenchee


I'm an FXI player too and I'm glad someone started a board. I like to write options and FXI has some very nice premiums. Buying FXI with the income. Hope to build up a nice position over time.

[frenchee]

Looks like a short-term long is at hand. Check out the charts in the iBoard!

[frenchee]

Update on short of the year...

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

[frenchee]

Short Play of the Year???

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

[frenchee]

So far so good. Up 9%. Moved trailing stop to 102.71.

[frenchee]

So far so good. Up 7%. Moved trailing stop to 107.85.

[frenchee]

Today's candlestick line appears to be a Dragonfly Doji and they typically happen at market turning points. As a result, I shorted FXI near the close at 112.28. Initial stop is 118.05. I'm looking for a regression the mean, at minimum, inside the Bollinger Bands currently around 103.

[frenchee]

Daily chart of XFI