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CHGI...China Carbon Graphite: Research by Debra Fiakas
in Industrial Mechanical (submitted 2009-11-04)
July 1, 2009, 10:14AM The GeoTeam® coded China Carbon Graphite (chinacarboninc.com) as a GeoSpecial. At its current price the stock may offer an attractive risk reward opportunity.
In 2007 the China Carbon saw its earnings per share grow 30.7% with a 47.2% increase in sales. 2008 saw a continuation of growth as sales and adjusted net income grew 7.7% and 11.1% respectively. 2008 growth would have been greater if it had not been for the Olympics which necessitated the closure of Xingyong's plant facilities as mandated by the Chinese government for the August 2008 Olympics. The closure caused the Company to shut down its production. The Company requires a 6 months production cycle and therefore was unable to resume production until March of 2009." With operations back to normal the company is positioning itself to propel its growth rate to new heights.
China Carbon is one of the China's top three producers of specialty graphite products. The Company's main products are graphite electrodes, fine grain graphite and high purity graphite. In general, the mineral is a valuable commodity in the Chemical, Mechanical, Nuclear and Electrical industries because of its ability to conduct heat and electricity and for its refractory nature (chemical and physical stability over a wide range of temperatures). These industries often need durable materials that can withstand conditions and processes over a long period of time, characteristics that lack in other industrial materials.
Graphite is considered to be one of the purest forms of carbon and highest grade of coal. Purity refers to the percent of carbon versus other non-carbon impurities found in the mineral. Graphite is one of two allotropes of carbon (the other being diamonds), the term allotrope meaning that it is a naturally occurring form of pure carbon. The chart below illustrates different grades of coal as they compare to carbon's allotropes.
Mineral Constituents by % Weight Name *Volatiles % C Carbon % H Hydrogen % O Oxygen % S Sulfur % Braunkohle (Lignite Coal) 45-65 60-75 6.0-5.8 34-17 0.5-3 Flammkohle (Flame coal) 40-45 75-82 6.0-5.8 >9.8 ~1 Gasflammkohle (Gas flame coal) 35-40 82-85 5.8-5.6 9.8-7.3 ~1 Gaskohle (Gas coal) 28-35 85-87.5 5.6-5.0 7.3-4.5 ~1 Fettkohle (Fat coal) 19-28 87.5-89.5 5.0-4.5 4.5-3.2 ~1 Esskohle (Forge coal) 14-19 89.5-90.5 4.5-4.0 3.2-2.8 ~1 Magerkohle (Non baking coal) 10-14 90.5-91.5 4.0-3.75 2.8-3.5 ~1 Anthrazit (Anthracite Coal) 7-12 >91.5 <3.75 <2.5 ~1 Graphite 7 >99 <1 <1 <1 Diamond 0 100 0 0 0 Source: Wikipedia
There are three types of naturally occurring graphite; high crystalline graphite, amorphous graphite and flake graphite, all of which are named for observations that can be made about how they appear in their natural environments. However, graphite can also be artificially processed to obtain a synthetic form of the mineral.
Amorphous graphite has applications in metallurgy, pencil production, refractories, coating, lubricants and paint production.
Crystalline graphite can be used in batteries, lubricants, grinding wheels and powder metallurgy.
Flake graphite is used predominantly in refractory applications, mainly in secondary steel making; in addition to this it may also be used in lubricants, powder metallurgy, pencils and coatings. Most sources of natural graphite are also used in the fabrication of graphite foil. Synthetic, or artificially prepared, graphites are used in aerospace applications, batteries, carbon brushes, graphite electrodes for furnaces and metallurgical processing, and moderator rods in nuclear power plants. China Carbon specializes in "using carbon rich raw materials to manufacturing graphite with a high degree of purity. The raw materials, purchased from domestic Chinese suppliers, include materials such as coal asphalt, asphalt coke, metallurgy coke, needle coke, metallurgy coke powder, quartzose sand, coal, petroleum coke and calcined coke. The extraction process typically requires a large amount of heat and several iterations of critical extraction steps before the desired purity is obtained.
Understanding China Carbon Graphite:
China Carbon Graphite manufactures three types of synthetic graphite products. Each type of product can generally be broken down into different quality grades that determine its use.
Its products are generally used:
* As a component in other products, * As an element of the machinery in a facility * To produce nuclear energy * In the manufacturing process of other products.
The company typically focuses on high end applications within its varying product lines.
1. Graphite electrodes line: Conducting material used for electric arc furnaces in the manufacture of steel and smelting alloy steel, brown alumina, yellow phosphorus, or other metals.
The electric arc furnace operates as a batch melting process producing batches of molten steel. The energy supplied during the smelting process can be either chemical or electrical. Electrical energy is supplied via the graphite electrodes and is usually the largest contributor in smelting operations.
2. Fine Grain graphite: Widely used in smelting for colored metals and rare-earth metal smelting as well as the manufacture of molds. (When liquid metal needs to poured into a container, that container must have a high tolerance for heat. Because graphite has a low sensitivity to heat, it is ideal for making molds in this scenario).
3. High purity graphite is used in metallurgy, mechanical industry, aviation, electronic, atomic energy, chemical industry, food industry and a variety of other fields. Common uses of this product line are the manufacture of molds, parts for machinery, automotive parts, lining in pipes to prevent chemical erosion, cubicles for silicon wafers and nuclear power plant applications. High purity graphite is generally lighter and less sensitive to heat than the aforementioned product lines.
Growth strategy. Going forward the company will follow a three pronged strategy:
1. Continue to serve the higher end markets in its Graphite electrodes line and Fine Grain graphite product lines.
2. Financing: The Company has applied for a $26 million loan financing from the PRC at below market rates. Use of proceeds: immediate acquisition, expansion of current plant and to purchase additional equipment for the manufacture of fine grain and high purity products.
* The company has identified a potential acquisition target, that when purchased, would result in a 100% increase of both revenues and profits. If the transaction occurs it would double the size of the company in terms of revenue and net income.
3. Intensify its penetration into the high purity markets: A major impetus for growth will come from China Carbon's increased focus on its high purity graphite line.
There are numerous reasons to concentrate on the high purity graphite line:
1. Less competition
* The majority of Chinese graphite manufacturing companies are not involved in the production of high purity graphite. * The expertise and high cost of machinery needed to manufacture high purity graphite is very demanding, creating a barrier to entry. * The company has a qualified and seasoned staff. This is important because "the reputation of the manufacturer and the quality of the product may be as important as price."
2. High purity graphite opens the door to a much broader array of markets. This should reduce the company's sensitivity to economic cycles when compared to its other product lines.
3. Margins in the high purity graphite line are significantly better as compared to its other product lines.
4. High purity graphite is becoming the preferred material of choice utilized in the production of nuclear plants. This trend presents an exciting opportunity on which China Carbon is poised to capitalize.
* The projected significant investments in Chinese nuclear power industry provide opportunities for companies that are directly or indirectly involved in the nuclear power industry. * Energy demands and savings, as well as emission reduction requirements pose growing pressures for the fast development of the Chinese economy. Industry experts contend that nuclear power is the most competitive solution to change Chinese energy structures and meet the energy demands. * By the end of 2008 a total of 11 nuclear power generating sets were in operation. The Chinese government is seeking to build 40 nuclear reactors by 2015. * In 2008 the annual nuclear power production was about 68 billion KWh, accounting for 2% of the total power production in China. The Chinese government plans that the installed capacity of nuclear power in China will eventually reach 5%, the electrical power production will reach 8% and the installed capacity of the nuclear power will exceed 70 million KW by 2020. If these estimates materialize, then the investments in Chinese nuclear power construction will total 720 billion Yuan (105 billion USD) in approximately 10 years.
The GeoTeam is speculating that the current stock price of China Carbon has been suffering as a result of the following reasons.
1. A capitalization issue arising from the reverse merger transaction in December 2007 called for the company to have to pay $4 million in fees. The initial payment of $800,000 was due by December 13, 2007 and the remaining $3,200,000 is due by September 13, 2009. Neither payment had been made.
* Problem solved- China Carbon has submitted capitalization reorganization plan to the PRC for approval. "We expect approval for the recapitalization in the next 60 days. These actions will effectively reduce the intercompany investment obligations owed to Yongle from $4,000,000 to $100,000 and eliminate possible fines or penalties by the PRC business bureau.
2. The 2008 Olympics resulted in short term facility shut downs.
* Problem solved- "The sales decrease reflects the closure of Xingyong's plant facilities as mandated by the Chinese government for the Olympics in August 2008. The closure caused the Company to shut down its production. The Company requires a 6 months production cycle and therefore was unable to resume production until March of 2009." With the conclusion of the Olympics operations are back to normal.
3. Dilution due to financing needs for acquisitions and plant expansion.
* Problem solved - "As one of the largest privately owned employers in Inner Mongolia, we have been recommended by the local government of Inner Mongolia to apply for a RMB 180,000,000 loan (approximately $26,000,000 US) through the Central government's economic stimulus plan. Once approved, it will expedite the process of doubling our production capacity to 30,000 metric tons annually and allow us to develop nuclear graphite for the more than 40 nuclear reactors the government is seeking to build by 2015." * Final approval for the loan and funding is expected in the fourth quarter of this year.
4. The six million outstanding warrants makes it difficult to compile an EPS estimate and accurately value the stock. The issue of potential dilution is still open and could put a short term cap on the stock unless:
* The company considers steps to restructure the contract terms of the outstanding warrants, a step the GeoTeam® would highly recommend. To that end, the GeoTeam® has been able to confirm that China Carbon is preparing a repurchase agreement to retire 5 million warrants. * Completes an acquisition that can deliver EPS growth despite dilution. * Adds manufacturing capacity that can deliver EPS growth despite dilution.
5. No investor awareness initiatives.
* Problem solved-
-China Carbon Graphite has retained the services of Ventana Capital Partners. (www.venturecapitalpartners.com) -China Carbon Graphite has retained the services of Capital Group Communications. (www.capitalgc.com) -Research report has been furnished by Crystal Equity Research which should help the company gain additional exposure. (www.crystalequityresearch.com)
The GeoTeam® will follow the CHGI story very closely. The stock may start to react positively when the loan and capital restructuring terms are actually approved. The company has provided guidance implying that it will experience sales and earnings growth in 2009.
"As we look at the remainder of 2009, we expect that China Carbon will achieve a 15% to 25% increase in top line and bottom line in 2009. We are encouraged as the overall economic condition has been steadily improving in China. We are especially encouraged by the strong demand for our high quality fine grain graphite and high purity graphite."
It appears that this guidance does not take into account potential for acquisitions or manufacturing capacity increases, either of which could significantly add to the 2009 out look, a situation possibly needed in the short term for investors to get over dilutive issues.
Book Value Per Share using current outstanding shares: $2.61 Book Value Per Share including outstanding warrants: $1.82
Enterprise Value Per Share using current outstanding shares: $1.15 Enterprise Value Per Share including outstanding warrants: $1.03
The GeoTeam® will publish complete valuation scenarios as events unfold.
Check out this article and more like it on our squidoo account, http://www.squidoo.com/myshareholder
About the Author
Debra Fiakas, CFA is the Managing Director of Crystal Equity Research. Ms. Fiakas has a bachelor degree in economics from the University of South Dakota and an MBA from Thunderbird School of Global Management. Ms. Fiakas is also a member of the New York Society of Security Analysts and the Chartered Financial Analyst Institute.
http://www.goarticles.com/cgi-bin/showa.cgi?C=2157058
CHGI...table pounder...hog
AMLJ up 4% on good volume...liking this one...hog
Yes xodg is moving again & even wkbt is waking up
XODG another nice day...highs....hog
RODM....half way down page under agency rankings......#1 agent for pipes...
http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.499da690d782e38e0f6c1bf8ceb253a8cdc45c1af19eb847d6fbe25c9507008d
XODG...LED lighting market to exceed $5B by 2012, says report...hog
http://www.ledsmagazine.com/news/6/3/2
XODG...LED Lighting Market Gains Momentum
By Carolyn on June 28, 2009 6:14 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
Shifting to LED lighting is a small but fast-growing trend that is redefining the century-old conception of lighting --- replacing energy-wasting disposable bulbs with efficient fixtures that are often semi-permanent, like those used in plumbing.
Studies suggest that a complete conversion to the lights could decrease carbon dioxide emissions from electric power use for lighting by up to 50 percent in just over 20 years.
And in the United States, lighting accounts for about 6 percent of all energy use.
A recent report by McKinsey & Company cited conversion to LED lighting as potentially the most cost effective of a number of simple approaches to tackling climate change using existing technology.
LED lighting was once relegated to
basketball scoreboards
cellphone consoles
traffic lights
colored Christmas lights
But as a result of rapid developments in the technology, it is now poised to become common on streets and in buildings, as well as in homes and offices.
Some American cities, including many in California, as well as Ann Arbor, MI., and Raleigh, NC, are using LED street lights and industrial size fixtures to illuminate streets and parking garages. Dozens more cities and counties, as well as state governments are exploring the savings in maintenance as well as the energy-saving efficiencies. San Jose, Calif., plans to use $2 million in energy-efficiency grants to install 1,500 LED streetlights.
LEDs are more than twice as efficient as CFLs - compact fluorescent lights -- currently the standard for greener lighting. And the longer life reduces replacement maintenance time, which can be more of a savings than the bulbs or energy itself.
Unlike compact fluorescents, LEDs turn on quickly and are compatible with dimmer switches.
Fluorescent bulbs also contain mercury, which requires special disposal, and LED bulbs contain no toxic elements, are so small, and last so long that disposal is not much of an issue.
The switch to LEDs is proceeding far more rapidly than experts had predicted just two years ago.
President Obama's stimulus package, which offers money for "green" infrastructure investment, will accelerate that pace, experts say.
http://www.solutionsforledlights.com/2009/06/led-lighting-market-gains-momentum.html
Gold exploration juniors anyone?
Check out GODYF
(GOE.V in Canada)
They have a gold/silver/tellurium deposit in British Columbia that I think will grow much larger - at their Deerhorn property
ghgi looks like a good longterm hold.
DPDW...http://www.jobsinme.com/seek/resultdetail.aspx?jobnum=519821
Flotation Technologies is mentioned in this 12-23-09 Offshore magazine article on Chevron’s Tahiti...
http://www.offshore-mag.com/index/article-display/5761161828/articles/offshore/volume-69/issue-12/top-5_projects/chevron_rsquo_s-tahiti.html
Analysis: 2010 Floater Market Outlook
http://rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=84505
Looking for more MOMO in 2010!
From DPDW board...hog
CKGT,,,I currently have my core position intact & was looking to buyback my trading shares around $2.20-$2.25 even before Thursdays news.
As i see Thursdays news as a necessary evil to obtain listing on my guess the AMEX with no effect to the longterm growth of ckgt,,, I may actually raise my buyback range depending on the early results Monday.
Sure the warrants & option will cause some dilution when added to the present sharecount [15%-20%] but these warrants & options were issued in 2008 & should already be figured into total share count.
On the flip side the warrants & options will add some working capitol & add to cashflow as a means of financing the accelerating growth trend ckgt has decided on in 2009.[notice the two land lease purchases to expand cactus cultivation.] [notice new product launching in not only existing product lines especially ;;animal feeds] But also cactus based cigarettes & personnel hygiene & care products.
How cactus cigarettes effects revenue & earnings remains somewhat unknown,,,however even before the launch of hogfeed the other animal feeds have been a huge & still growing success.
As for personnel hygiene & care products this involves a wide range & variety of products[creams,lotions,toothpaste,baby needs,etc.]
I have been waiting since 2007-08 to see personnel care products launch & finally in 2010 it may actually happen with major implications to the bottom line since this is the best product margin wise & for the wide range of future products that could be added & along with animal feed could propell growth for the next decade at ckgt's present growthrate of 30%+revenue with 50%+earnings growth.
I look forward to ckgt executing its growth plan from the AMEX in 2010.
CHGI...Company Reaffirms Earnings Forecast For 2009
Donghai Yu, the Company's CEO, reaffirmed the Company's earnings forecast for 2009, "As we look at the remainder of 2009, we expect that China Carbon will achieve its goal of a top and bottom line increase of 15% to 25%."
Cash Reserves
As of June 30, 2009, the Company reported cash reserves totaling $6.3 million and shareholder equity of $36.7 million resulting in a book value of $2.61 per share. The cash balance will be used for working capital along with the purchase of new machinery and equipment.
About China Carbon Graphite Group, Inc.
China Carbon, through its affiliate, Xingyong Carbon Co., Ltd., manufactures carbon and graphite based products in China. The company is the largest wholesale supplier of fine grain and high purity graphite in China. Fine grain graphite is widely used in smelting for colored metals and rare earth metal smelting as well as the manufacture of molds. High purity graphite is used in metallurgy, mechanical industry, aviation, electronic, atomic energy, chemical industry, food industry and a variety of other fields. In September 2007, the company was approved and designated by Ministry of Science & Technology as a "National Hi-tech Enterprise." Of the 400 plus carbon graphite producers in China, China Carbon is the only non-state-owned company to receive this honor. For more information, visit http://www.chinacarboninc.com.
CKGT...buying on any dip this opportunity creates...hog
RODM...chart looks good price has steadily moved up in Dec....will have a good qtr with easy comp.....hog
RODM...General Steel Holdings, Inc. Announces $25.0 Million Securities Offering
BEIJING, Dec. 24 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- General Steel Holdings, Inc. ("General Steel" or "the Company") (NYSE:GSI), one of China's leading non-state-owned producers of steel products and aggregators of domestic steel companies, has entered into definitive agreements to sell 5,555,556 shares of the Company's common stock ("Common Stock") and warrants to purchase up to 2,777,778 shares of Common Stock to institutional investors for aggregate gross proceeds of $25.0 million. The offering is made pursuant to the Form S-3 shelf registration statement that was filed by General Steel with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") and declared effective by the SEC on October 22, 2009. General Steel intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes which may include working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions of new businesses and investments
The securities are being offered in "units" at a price of $4.50 per unit. Each unit consists of one share of Common Stock and a two and one half year warrant to purchase 0.50 of an additional share of Common Stock. The warrants have an exercise price of $5.00 per share and are exercisable commencing six months and one day after closing
Certain anti-dilution adjustment provisions contained in the Company's common stock purchase warrants originally issued on December 13, 2007 ("December 2007 Warrants") may have been triggered by the Company's sale of the units. Rather than giving full effect to the anti-dilution provisions, the Company and the holders of the December 2007 Warrants entered into an agreement whereby the aggregate number of shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of the December 2007 Warrants is increased from 1,154,958 shares to 3,900,871 shares, and the exercise price of the December 2007 Warrants was reduced from $13.51 per share to $5.00 per share
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC, a subsidiary of Rodman & Renshaw Capital Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:RODM) acted as the lead placement agent for the transaction and FT Global Capital, Inc., acted as co-lead placement agent for the transaction
This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Any offer will be made only by means of a prospectus, including a prospectus supplement, forming a part of the effective registration statement. Copies of the prospectus supplement together with the accompanying prospectus can be obtained at the Securities and Exchange Commission's website at http://www.sec.gov/
About General Steel Holdings, Inc
General Steel Holdings, Inc., (NYSE:GSI), headquartered in Beijing, China, operates a diverse portfolio of Chinese steel companies. With 6.3 million metric tons of aggregate production capacity, its companies serve various industries and produce a variety of steel products including rebar, hot-rolled carbon and silicon sheet, high-speed wire and spiral-weld pipe. General Steel Holdings, Inc. has steel operations in Shaanxi and Guangdong provinces, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Tianjin municipality. For more information, please visit http://www.gshi-steel.com/
Information Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This press release may contain certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs about future events and financial, political and social trends and assumptions it has made based on information currently available to it. The Company cannot assure that any expectations, forecasts or assumptions made by management in preparing these forward-looking statements will prove accurate, or that any projections will be realized. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of inaccurate assumptions or a number of risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are set forth in the Company's filings under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 under "Risk Factors" and elsewhere, and include: (a) those risks and uncertainties related to general economic conditions in China, including regulatory factors that may affect such economic conditions; (b) whether the Company is able to manage its planned growth efficiently and operate profitable operations, including whether its management will be able to identify, hire, train, retain, motivate and manage required personnel or that management will be able to successfully manage and exploit existing and potential market opportunities; (c) whether the Company is able to generate sufficient revenues or obtain financing to sustain and grow its operations; (d) whether the Company is able to successfully fulfill our primary requirements for cash and (e) other risks, including those disclosed in the Company's Form 10-K, filed with the SEC. Forward-looking statements contained herein speak only as of the date of this release. The Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information, future events or otherwise
For investor and media inquiries, please contact:
In China: Jing Ou-Yang General Steel Holdings, Inc
Tel: +86-10-5879-7346 Email:
Justin Knapp Ogilvy Financial, Beijing Tel: +86-10-8520-6556 Email:
In the United States: Jessica Barist Cohen Ogilvy Financial, New York Tel: +1-646-460-9989 Email:
DATASOURCE: General Steel Holdings, Inc
CONTACT: For investor and media inquiries, please contact: In China:
Jing Ou-Yang of General Steel Holdings, Inc., Tel: +86-10-5879-7346, Email:
; Justin Knapp of Ogilvy Financial, Beijing, Tel:
+86-10-8520-6556, Email: ; In the United States: Jessica Barist
Cohen of Ogilvy Financial, New York, Tel: +1-646-460-9989, Email:
Web Site: http://www.gshi-steel.com/
RODM...from yahoo...here is the score as of dec 23rd- note some deals 23-Dec-09 08:13 pm have not been news released- I was very surprised- the volume of deals is much larger than I thought- I went to the website and reviewed the transactions--Note- have not broken them down - some are co- underwritten, most are not - the big business is the placements- also some are australian and they are separated:
Australia australian deals--103.8 million
canadian----15 million
US dollar--650 million
total dollar amount for 4th q 768 million and the stock sits under 4 dollar- let us assume that they get only 2% comm. that is around .45 - lets haircut that number to only .35 for the q that results in .90 for the year ending dec 2009- and the stock is trading at 4X trailing - I will buy additional share on thursday in the morning- only half aday-- people must be asleep at the switch.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_R/threadview?m=tm&bn=73503&tid=3759&mid=3759&tof=2&frt=1
ESIC...I think buying below $1.70 is good and an easy comp is coming up....I believe the chart says to wait but will be buying more...hog
AMLJ..watch to add more...possible 1.27...hog
EXPU...The upside of Florida real estate: 15 market positives
Courtesy of Florida Association of Realtors®
Let's take a look at some of the opportunities and positive indicators for the future of Florida's real estate market.
1. Great prices. Statewide, home prices have fallen about 20 percent in the past year. Florida Association of Realtors® statistics show the existing-home median sales price was $185,400 in the third quarter of 2008, compared with $233,200 in third quarter 2007. By the way, those numbers are still significantly higher than in the early years of the decade. In 2003, the third-quarter sales price was $163,700, which reflects an increase of about 13.3 percent over the five-year period. (The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.)
2. The time is right. Home sales volumes are rising again -- a signal that the market recovery may be underway. In third quarter 2008, statewide sales of existing single-family homes were up 5 percent compared to the same period last year, according to FAR statistics.
3. High inventory levels. Conditions are ideal for buyers to find their dream home. Inventory is plentiful in all price ranges. But as sales volumes increase, inventory levels are likely to shrink. That reality translates into this advice for buyers: Don't wait too long.
4. Low mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are still at the lowest levels since the 1960s. Lower rates multiply a buyer's financial power. Even half a percent can make a sizeable difference. For example, on a $200,000 home, half of 1 percent could save the homeowner about $815 a year. Buyers can get more home for the money, which is a perfect scenario for families looking to upsize.
5. Incentives to buy. Federal, state and local housing programs can help buyers make that big purchase. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has increased the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit from $7,500 to $8,000 for purchases on or after Jan. 1, 2009, and before Dec. 1, 2009. Talk to a local mortgage lender about state and federal incentive programs.
6. A long-term-growth state. Long-term economic and demographic trends continue to favor Florida. By 2010, economists forecast that Florida will be the third-most-populated state in the country. Florida has been one of the 10-fastest-growing states in the U.S. for each of the past seven decades, and often the state has been in the top four, according to Census data. Population growth will continue to provide a foundation for other economic development, such as new jobs and growing incomes. All of these trends are positive indicators for real estate growth.
7. A migration magnet. Even with a slowdown in economic growth nationally, projections call for Florida's population to return to more normal growth levels of about 317,000 a year between 2010 and 2020, similar to the 1980s and 1990s, said Stan Smith, director of the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. That's a lot of new buyers coming into the market.
8. A favored retirement destination. Over the long term, Florida stands to benefit from the migration of the aging Baby Boomer generation, roughly 80 million strong. Demographic studies show that the Sunshine State's mild climate and outdoor amenities continue to make Florida a favorite retirement destination.
9. A diverse economy. Florida's economy, like the rest of the nation, is impacted by the recession. Some business sectors, though, appear promising for the Florida economy. The healthcare and technology sectors are quickly becoming an important economic force in South and Central Florida. The Milken Institute/Greenstreet Real Estate Partners ranked five Florida communities on its "Best Performing Cities Index 2008," which ranks U.S. metropolitan areas by how well they are creating and sustaining jobs and economic growth. Florida's business climate ranked fourth among executives and sixth overall on Site Selection magazine's 2008 Top State Business Climate rankings.
10. Investment outlook. Every quarter, the University of Florida's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies conducts a survey of industry executives, market research economists, real estate scholars and other experts. In the fourth quarter 2008 survey, the investment outlook for various types of Florida properties declined from the third quarter of 2008, although it is noted that the investment outlook remains higher than it was at times in 2006 and 2007. "We have 40 pages of comments from our respondents, and although the dominant theme is the disruption of financing, perhaps the second theme, as one person put it, is people being on the sidelines with full pads and helmets just waiting to jump back in," says Director Dr. Wayne Archer, when referencing the 2008 third quarter results.
11. Homeownership has value. Realtors® believe -- and research supports the belief -- that homeownership provides a variety of tangible and intangible benefits to the community and homeowners. Studies show that home equity is still the largest single source of household wealth.
12. Greater sense of well-being. Owning a home leads to increased personal well-being. Research shows that people who own their own homes tend to show higher levels of personal self-esteem and life satisfaction, which in turn helps to make homeowners and their children more productive members of society.
13. Beneficial for kids. Studies show that children raised in homes owned by their families are more likely to stay in school and graduate high school. They're also shown to have a higher lifetime annual income.
14. Community involvement. People who own homes have a strong financial stake in what happens to their community and tend to become more involved in community and civic affairs. Studies show that homeowners also interact more with their neighbors and communities. Compared to renters, homeowners join up to 41 percent more civic and/or nonprofessional organizations, such as the PTA or Scouts; vote in local elections 15 percent more often; enhance their neighborhoods with gardens 12 percent more often; attend church about 10 percent more often; and have a 3 percent greater chance of being interested in public affairs.
15. An unsurpassed lifestyle. Finally, let's not forget the things that brought people to Florida in the first place, and will continue to attract them -- beautiful beaches, fabulous weather and a friendly business climate, with no state income tax. It's no wonder that Florida's combination of temperate climate, outstanding recreational amenities and economic opportunity has consistently put the Sunshine State in the top three of Harris Poll's "Most Desirable Places to Live" survey.
Copyright © 2009, Orlando Sentinel
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/classified/realestate/foreclosure/orl-foreclosures-upside-realestate-story,0,7584976.story
EXPU...DD
Expert Group’s primary revenue engine is “Expert Financing.” This company specializes in providing residential and commercial loans and has been in business since 2005 in the Florida marketplace.
Recently, Expert Financing has experienced a notable surge of growth, showing a solidly profitable 2009 Q3 and what appears to be an even brighter future.
Expert has also assisted in loans for luxurious projects like the Icon Brickell, Aventura Marina, Williams Island, the Continuum in South Beach, Aqualina and The Trump in Sunny Isles Beach.
This presentation will deal primarily with Expert Financing and showcase their achievements as well as speculate about their future potential.
****************
2009 has been a significant year for Expert Financing. Several milestones were reached. Some of these include:
Expert secures FHA lending status.
Expert partners with several new banks and lending institutions, including Ginnie Mae.
Expert opens two new locations.
Expert greatly increases originators and originations.
Expert begins offering Government backed SBA loans
Expert enhances brand recognition through television, billboards, and special features such as The Best of South Florida. Best of South Florida
Expert added to their management team as well as adding processors to their back office.
Expert currently has 65 originators actively working to secure new business.
Expert was featured prominently on Mortgage Daily, the largest publication in the industry. Mortgage News for the Mortgage Industry | National Mortgage Loan and Rates News
Expert will celebrate the grand opening of the BAL Harbour location this November. At this event the company will receive the prestigious Proclamation Award from the city of Bay Harbour Island.
Expert Group signed with 10 new banks in 2009 including Bank of America. This brings Expert’s alliances with banks to 50. Because of these strategic partnerships Expert can find more people better loans. Expert Finance's loan closing rate is well above average within the industry
SOURCE: Expert Group Inc. Completes Funding Requirements for 2009, Stabilizes Share Structure
******************
EXPU SHARE STRUCTURE
As of November 2009
Authorized Shares = 100,000,000
Outstanding Shares = 43,661,833
Float = 22,134,412
The EXPU Transfer Agent is not gagged. Investors can call the TA and receive current share structure information.
Phone: (602) 485-1346
As per an October 2009 press release, CEO Robert Rico stated that all funding for 2009 had been completed.
Our understanding from this recent PR is that the share structure will remain stable at least until sometime in 2010.
Rico also said: “…I'm pleased to report that we're headed into 2010 with a good pool of capital.” Expert Group Inc. Completes Funding Requirements for 2009, Stabilizes Share Structure
It strongly appears from these statements and information that the 22M float share structure is currently solid. Expert Group Inc. Completes Funding Requirements for 2009, Stabilizes Share Structure
Expert Group also recently lowered the A/S from 200B to 100M, representing a 95% decrease in authorized shares! Expert Group, Inc. Corporate Structure and Corporate Updates
On 9/30/2009, Expert Group completed the 95% share reduction. Here is a link to the reduction filing at the Nevada S.O.S. https://esos.state.nv.us/SOSServices...ERT+GROUP,+INC.
*******************
ABOUT THE CEO
Robert Rico is chairman of the board of directors of Expert Group Inc. as well as the chairman of Expert Financing & Investments Inc. a company he co-founded in 2005. Expert Financing has been originating conventional and government loans since its inception. The company started as a retail firm providing millions of dollars in real estate loans to all types of borrowers including domestic and foreign nationals for all kinds of properties including condominiums, single family residences, town houses, commercial buildings like hotels, strip mall, gas station, restaurants, warehouses, industrial facilities and day care to name a few. Expert has also assisted in loans for luxurious projects like the Icon Brickell, Aventura Marina, Williams Island, the Continuum in South Beach, Aqualina and The Trump in Sunny Isles Beach. The company operates as a public company with its shares trading on the over the counter under the stock symbol EXPU. As a loan origination and marketing firm, utilized as an independent outsource platform for several national and regional community banks. "We have originated and closed millions of dollars in loans since our inception with steady production consistent to date." Robert Rico is a self-made entrepreneur with experience in both the public and private sector with a clear vision for Expert Financing to become the "go to firm" for all your real estate lending needs.
SOURCE: South Florida Businessmen Robert Rico
*********************
BRANDING THE EXPERT NAME
Robert Rico has stated repeatedly that Expert’s goal is to become a “household name.” Expert has taken several steps in 2009 to become more recognized in their target markets. Expert Group, Inc. Opens Third Location, Forecasts an Additional $3,000,000 in Annual Revenues
“We are taking all the right steps necessary to fulfill our business plan of opening multiple locations and branding Expert Financing as the go-to firm for all your Real Estate Lending Needs.” Expert Group, Inc. Opens Third Location, Forecasts an Additional $3,000,000 in Annual Revenues
“We are successfully branding the 'Expert Financing' name all over the Florida marketplace. We offer people the absolute best deal on home loans. Our closing ratio is higher than other lenders.” Expert Group, Inc. Opens Third Location, Forecasts an Additional $3,000,000 in Annual Revenues
BILLBOARDS: Our New Billboard Is UP! | Expert Financing Blog
RADIO ADVERTISEMENTS: Expert Group Current Radio Advertisements | Expert Financing Blog
TELEVISION ADVERTISEMENTS: YouTube - expertgroupinc's Channel
BEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TV SHOW: Expert Group On TV | Expert Financing Blog
************************
TALKING NUMBERS
Loan Originations Are Good But Loan Closings Are What Really Matter
Expert Group realizes between $4,000-6,000 for every loan it closes. Expert Group Originates Record $111.7 Million in August and Projects $20 Million Revenues
Expert Group closes approximately 1 loan per month for every working originator. Expert Group, Inc. Opens Third Location, Forecasts an Additional $3,000,000 in Annual Revenues
Let’s refer to this as the “1 Originator = 1 Closed Loan Per Month” Formula.
Expert realizes on average $5,000 per loan closing. Expert Group, Inc. Opens Third Location, Forecasts an Additional $3,000,000 in Annual Revenues
Profit margins for Expert are solid. Expert boasted a 61% profit margin in Q3 2009. Expert Group Inc. Releases 3rd Quarter Financials
Profit margins are high in part because of low overhead and performance-based payouts: “Originators are compensated based on performance.
Originators do not get paid if they do not close loans.” Expert Group, Inc. Opens Third Location, Forecasts an Additional $3,000,000 in Annual Revenues
*************************
PPS VALUATION SCENARIOS -- CURRENTLY...
Expert enjoyed 2009 Q3 Earnings Per Share of $.0044 cents Expert Group Inc. Releases 3rd Quarter Financials
“The Company recorded net income of approximately $187,192.17 or $.0044 earnings per share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2009. This represents a 350% increase when compared to total net income for the quarter ended September 30, 2008.” Expert Group Inc. Releases 3rd Quarter Financials
.0044 x 4 (quarters) = .0176 annual EPS
A P/E multiple of 10 is the standard multiplier for companies within the mortgage industry.
.0176 x 10 = .176
Using a P/E multiple of 10 this puts EXPU at approximately .176 cents per share based on 2009 Q3 numbers alone!
***************************
MORE PPS VALUATION SCENARIOS -- Q4 2009 / Q1 2010
Scenario: 100 Originators
"Expert Group projects that by year's end [2009] we will have our 3rd location open and have a total of 100 originators operating. With 100 originators we conservatively project that we will close 100 loans per month.” Expert Group Originates Record $111.7 Million in August and Projects $20 Million Revenues
100 x $5,000 = $500,000 monthly revenues
Using a profit margin of 50% this means $250,000 monthly net income for Expert or $750,000 quarterly net income.
This would mean $.0175 earnings per share for Q1-Q2, 2010 (based on 43M o/s).
.0175 x 4 = .07
Using a P/E multiple of 10 this would put a value of about 70 cents per share on EXPU stock in this scenario.
*****************************
MORE PPS VALUATION SCENARIOS -- MID 2011
Scenario: 400 Originators
“By mid 2011, Expert plans to operate at full capacity with 400 originators at 9 different locations.” Expert Group Originates Record $111.7 Million in August and Projects $20 Million Revenues
400 Loan Closings Per Month
$5000 average per loan closing
$2,000,000 per month revenue
50% profit margin this means $1M monthly in net income for Expert.
This would be $3M in quarterly net income.
Quarterly earnings per share with a 43M o/s would be approximately .07 cents per share.
.07 x 4 (quarters) = .28
Using the industry standard PE multiple of 10 this gives EXPU a valuation of $2.80 cents per share in this scenario.
It should be noted that all of these valuations do not take into account several “X Factors” that may greatly and positively impact net income. Let’s consider a few…
*******************************
MORE DD LINKS
Expert Financing Blog
Expert Financing
EXPU Investor presentation: Expert Group, Inc. (EXPU): ***EXPU INVESTOR POWERPOINT DD PRESENTATION UPDATED***
EXPU...Orlando Home Prices Down But Sales Up Again
April 13th, 2009 British Homes Group Posted in Florida Market Trends, Florida Real Estate, Orlando Real Estate No Comments »
Home prices in and around Orlando are down, interest rates are down and for the seventh straight month in a row sales are up.
Some recent statistics from the Orlando Business Journal in an article by Anjali Fluker are very encouraging for sellers and buyers alike…
Home sales in the Orlando market jumped nearly 48 percent, but values fell by nearly 40 percent, according to the March report from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association.
Association members reported 1,653 existing home sales in March, compared with 1,120 in the same month a year prior.
Realtors also put 2,956 homes under contract last month, a far cry from March 2008’s 1,679.
Association members also reported 4,906 pending sales — considered a leading indicator of future sales — in March, more than double March 2009’s 2,398.
March home resales in the Orlando area — Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole counties — jumped nearly 58 percent, from 1,354 homes last year to 2,139 homes this year.
Osceola County saw the biggest increase in sales at 112 percent, from 466 homes sold in March 2008 to 989 sold last month. Orange County saw the next largest jump at nearly 61 percent, from 1,667 last year to 2,681 this year, followed by Lake County’s 21.5 percent increase, from 657 last year to 798 this year, and Seminole’s nearly 5 percent jump, from 679 to 713.
The association reported that 49 percent of the homes that were sold being bank-owned or distressed homes. There were 700 bank-owned home sales last month with a median price of $95,000, along with 111 distressed home resales with a median price of $143,500.
Homes of all types spent an average of 104 days on the market before being sold last month, down from an average of 128 days in March 2008.
The average home sold for nearly 92.6 percent of its listing price in March 2009, slightly down from the 93.1 percent posted in the same month last year.
March inventory of homes available reflects a nearly 13-month supply at the sales pace, down from the nearly 17-month supply recorded in February 2009.
Orlando-area condo sales saw a huge increase 228 percent last month — from 90 in 2008 to 295 this year.
If you are considering buying a home in Florida, please complete this short form for a customised porperty search - http://www.britishhomesgroup.com/floridaforeclosures.php or call 0800 096 5989.
Read the full article here…
http://blog.britishhomesgroup.com/category/florida-market-trends/
EXPU...Florida First Capital Announces SBA Real Estate Loans Nearly Double
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - (Business Wire) In one of the first signs of economic recovery for small businesses in Florida, U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) loans for real estate and equipment statewide nearly doubled from April through June over the first quarter of 2009.
According to the most recent figures from the SBA, 113 small businesses in Florida took advantage of the agency’s “504” loan program for real estate and equipment financing from April through June, representing more than $126 million in total projects. During the first quarter, 65 loans totaling approximately $84 million were issued.
“While overall SBA lending for 2009 remains below 2008, the recent uptick in Florida’s 504 loans is a good indication that small businesses are starting to see opportunities for growth and expansion,” said Todd Kocourek, president & CEO of Florida First Capital Finance Corporation, Florida’s statewide certified development company. “Commercial real estate and some business equipment have become more affordable during the economic downturn, and smart business owners are taking advantage of this SBA loan program to buy and expand their facilities.”
SBA 504 loans offer low interest, long-term and fixed-rate financing with only 10 percent downpayment requirements for the purchase, construction or renovation of owner-occupied commercial real estate and/or the acquisition of industrial equipment or other fixed assets.
The program recently got a boost via federal Stimulus legislation which eliminated most program fees and allows for a limited amount of refinancing of existing debt if there is a business expansion. To boot, the 20-year fixed interest rate for 504 loans now stands at 5.24 percent, the lowest in the program’s history.
Florida First Capital Finance Corporation is a statewide non-profit certified development company that promotes economic development and job creation by working with the SBA and private-sector lenders to provide available and affordable financing to small businesses. Florida First Capital lends to small businesses under the SBA 504 loan program for real estate and equipment as well as via the Florida Recycling Loan Program and other small business assistance programs.
For information on the SBA or State of Florida loans, call Florida First Capital at 888-320-5504, email info@ffcfc.com or visit www.ffcfc.com.
Florida First Capital Finance Corporation
John P. David, 305-255-0035
john@davidgarciapr.com
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/florida-first-capital-announces-sba-real-estate-loans-nearly-double,897893.shtml
RODM...10-22-09...Rodman & Renshaw Capital Group, Inc. Announces Record Revenue
Rodman & Renshaw Capital Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: RODM) (“Rodman”) today announced its results for the third quarter of 2009, with revenue of $65.6 million and net income of $15.5 million or $0.40 per diluted share. Adjusting for certain events related to non-cash principal transactions, conference related revenue and expenses, non-recurring legal fees and the impairment of goodwill, the Company reported net income on a non-U.S. GAAP basis of $16.3 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, compared to net income on a non-U.S. GAAP basis of $11.3 million, or $0.30 per share, for the second quarter of 2009. A reconciliation between GAAP results and non-GAAP measures is contained in the tables that accompany this release, under “Non-GAAP Financial Measures.” Rodman will hold a conference call this morning, October 22, 2009 at 10 A.M. (EDT) (see Conference Call Information below) to discuss these results
Financial Highlights: Third Quarter Revenue
Revenue was $65.6 million, compared to $33.4 million in the second quarter of 2009
Investment banking revenue was $31.3 million, compared to $27.0 million in the second quarter of 2009
Merchant banking revenue of $28.6 million was triggered by a valuation, as required by GAAP, of the assets of the Company’s Aceras Biomedical joint venture. The valuation was performed by an independent valuation firm
Merchant banking revenue, net of non-controlling interest of $15.0 million, was $13.6 million
Revenue excluding principal transactions was $63.2 million, compared to $27.8 million in the second quarter of 2009
The Company completed 32 financing transactions raising $634.7 million, compared to 25 financing transactions raising $399.4 million, in the second quarter. The Company was once again ranked the number one investment bank in PIPE transactions by volume for the third quarter and the first nine months of 2009.1
Third Quarter Net Income
Net income was $15.5 million, or $0.40 per diluted share, compared to net income of $15.9 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2009
Adjusting for certain events related to non-cash principal transactions, conference related revenue and expenses, non-recurring legal fees and the impairment of goodwill, the Company reported net income on a non-U.S. GAAP basis of $16.3 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, compared to net income of $11.3 million on a non-U.S. GAAP basis, or $0.30 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2009
A reconciliation between GAAP results and non-GAAP measures is contained in the tables that accompany this release, under “Non-GAAP Financial Measures.”
1 Source: Sagient Research Systems, a leading publisher of independent research for the financial services and institutional investment communities
EXPU...a pinky I picked up...from vantillian...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=44603331
Expert Group’s primary revenue engine is “Expert Financing.” This company specializes in providing residential and commercial loans and has been in business since 2005 in the Florida marketplace.
Recently, Expert Financing has experienced a notable surge of growth, showing a solidly profitable 2009 Q3 and what appears to be an even brighter future.
Expert has also assisted in loans for luxurious projects like the Icon Brickell, Aventura Marina, Williams Island, the Continuum in South Beach, Aqualina and The Trump in Sunny Isles Beach.
This presentation will deal primarily with Expert Financing and showcase their achievements as well as speculate about their future potential.
****************
2009 has been a significant year for Expert Financing. Several milestones were reached. Some of these include:
Expert secures FHA lending status.
Expert partners with several new banks and lending institutions, including Ginnie Mae.
Expert opens two new locations.
Expert greatly increases originators and originations.
Expert begins offering Government backed SBA loans
Expert enhances brand recognition through television, billboards, and special features such as The Best of South Florida. http://www.bestofsouthflorida.tv
Expert added to their management team as well as adding processors to their back office.
Expert currently has 65 originators actively working to secure new business.
Expert was featured prominently on Mortgage Daily, the largest publication in the industry. http://www.mortgagedaily.com
Expert will celebrate the grand opening of the BAL Harbour location this November. At this event the company will receive the prestigious Proclamation Award from the city of Bay Harbour Island.
Expert Group signed with 10 new banks in 2009 including Bank of America. This brings Expert’s alliances with banks to 50. Because of these strategic partnerships Expert can find more people better loans. Expert Finance's loan closing rate is well above average within the industry.
SOURCE: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1067596.html
VIDEO: Grand opening celebration of Bal Harbour location...Expert presented with two prestigious awards by the cities of North Miami Beach and Bay Harbor, respectively.
More videos: http://www.youtube.com/user/expertgroupinc
******************
EXPU SHARE STRUCTURE
As of DECEMBER 2009
Authorized Shares = 100,000,000
Outstanding Shares = 43,661,833
Float = 22,134,412
The EXPU Transfer Agent is not gagged. Investors can call the TA and receive current share structure information.
Phone: (602) 485-1346
As per an October 2009 press release, CEO Robert Rico stated that all funding for 2009 had been completed.
Our understanding from this recent PR is that the share structure will remain stable at least until sometime in 2010.
Rico also said: “…I'm pleased to report that we're headed into 2010 with a good pool of capital.” http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1067596.html
It strongly appears from these statements and information that the 22M float share structure is currently solid. http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1067596.html
Expert Group also recently lowered the A/S from 200B to 100M, representing a 95% decrease in authorized shares! http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1014274.html
On 9/30/2009, Expert Group completed the 95% share reduction. Here is a link to the reduction filing at the Nevada S.O.S. https://esos.state.nv.us/SOSServices/AnonymousAccess/CorpSearch/corpActions.aspx?lx8nvq=T%2bq%2fzU1uzKn71j442j1w7Q%3d%3d&CorpName=EXPERT+GROUP,+INC.
*******************
ABOUT THE CEO
Robert Rico is chairman of the board of directors of Expert Group Inc. as well as the chairman of Expert Financing & Investments Inc. a company he co-founded in 2005. Expert Financing has been originating conventional and government loans since its inception. The company started as a retail firm providing millions of dollars in real estate loans to all types of borrowers including domestic and foreign nationals for all kinds of properties including condominiums, single family residences, town houses, commercial buildings like hotels, strip mall, gas station, restaurants, warehouses, industrial facilities and day care to name a few. Expert has also assisted in loans for luxurious projects like the Icon Brickell, Aventura Marina, Williams Island, the Continuum in South Beach, Aqualina and The Trump in Sunny Isles Beach. The company operates as a public company with its shares trading on the over the counter under the stock symbol EXPU. As a loan origination and marketing firm, utilized as an independent outsource platform for several national and regional community banks. "We have originated and closed millions of dollars in loans since our inception with steady production consistent to date." Robert Rico is a self-made entrepreneur with experience in both the public and private sector with a clear vision for Expert Financing to become the "go to firm" for all your real estate lending needs.
SOURCE: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1072774.html
*********************
BRANDING THE EXPERT NAME
Robert Rico has stated repeatedly that Expert’s goal is to become a “household name.” Expert has taken several steps in 2009 to become more recognized in their target markets. http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1060141.html
“We are taking all the right steps necessary to fulfill our business plan of opening multiple locations and branding Expert Financing as the go-to firm for all your Real Estate Lending Needs.” http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1060141.html
“We are successfully branding the 'Expert Financing' name all over the Florida marketplace. We offer people the absolute best deal on home loans. Our closing ratio is higher than other lenders.” http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1060141.html
BILLBOARDS: http://www.expertgroupblog.com/2009/10/our-new-billboard-is-up/
RADIO ADVERTISEMENTS: http://www.expertgroupblog.com/2009/09/expert-group-current-radio-advertisements/
TELEVISION ADVERTISEMENTS: http://www.youtube.com/user/expertgroupinc#p/a/u/2/DgjAKwQD32c
BEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TV SHOW: http://www.expertgroupblog.com/category/expert-group-on-tv/
************************
TALKING NUMBERS
Loan Originations Are Good But Loan Closings Are What Really Matter
Expert Group realizes between $4,000-6,000 in revenues for every loan it closes. http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1042684.html
Expert Group closes approximately 1 loan per month for every working originator. http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1060141.html
Let’s refer to this as the “1 Originator = 1 Closed Loan Per Month” Formula.
Expert realizes on average $5,000 in revenues per loan closing. http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1060141.html
Profit margins for Expert are solid. Expert boasted a 61% profit margin in Q3 2009. http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1071631.html
Based on Q3 numbers this means that for every $5,000 loan Expert closes, Expert realizes at least $2,500 in NET INCOME.
Profit margins are high in part because of low overhead and performance-based payouts: “Originators are compensated based on performance.
Originators do not get paid if they do not close loans.” http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1060141.html
*************************
PPS VALUATION SCENARIOS -- Q3 2009
Expert recently enjoyed 2009 Q3 Earnings Per Share of $.0044 cents http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1071631.html
“The Company recorded net income of approximately $187,192.17 or $.0044 earnings per share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2009. This represents a 350% increase when compared to total net income for the quarter ended September 30, 2008.” http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1071631.html
.0044 x 4 (quarters) = .0176 annual EPS
A P/E multiple of 10 is the standard multiplier for companies within the mortgage industry.
.0176 x 10 = .176
Using a P/E multiple of 10 this puts EXPU at approximately .176 cents per share based on 2009 Q3 numbers alone!
***************************
MORE PPS VALUATION SCENARIOS -- Q4 2009 / Q1 2010
Scenario: 100 Originators
"Expert Group projects that by year's end [2009] we will have our 3rd location open and have a total of 100 originators operating. With 100 originators we conservatively project that we will close 100 loans per month.” http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1042684.html
100 x $5,000 = $500,000 monthly revenues
Using a profit margin of 50% this means $250,000 monthly net income for Expert or $750,000 quarterly net income.
This would mean $.0175 earnings per share for Q1-Q2, 2010 (based on 43M o/s).
.0175 x 4 = .07
Using a P/E multiple of 10 this would put a value of about 70 cents per share on EXPU stock in this scenario.
*****************************
MORE PPS VALUATION SCENARIOS -- MID 2011
Scenario: 400 Originators
“By mid 2011, Expert plans to operate at full capacity with 400 originators at 9 different locations.” http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Expert-Group-1042684.html
400 Loan Closings Per Month
$5000 average per loan closing
$2,000,000 per month revenue
50% profit margin this means $1M monthly in net income for Expert.
This would be $3M in quarterly net income.
Quarterly earnings per share with a 43M o/s would be approximately .07 cents per share.
.07 x 4 (quarters) = .28
Using the industry standard PE multiple of 10 this gives EXPU a valuation of $2.80 cents per share in this scenario.
It should be noted that all of these valuations do not take into account several “X Factors” that may greatly and positively impact net income. (Jumbo loans, partnerships, etc.)
*******************************
MORE DD LINKS
http://www.expertgroupblog.com
http://www.expertfinancing.net
IHUB BOARD: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=12049
EXPU PowerPoint "Investor Presentation"
PowerPoint Show (Microsoft Office 2007) LINK: http://bit.ly/6aKu8O
PowerPoint Show (Microsoft Office older version) LINK: http://bit.ly/8AF8jx
PDF of the PowerPoint Show LINK: http://bit.ly/8YehMS
A very easy way is to view it in your INTERNET EXPLORER browser simply by clicking this LINK: http://bit.ly/4QANbv
If you use this last option you must view the presentation in Internet Explorer. If you use Firefox you MUST choose to "View in IE" in order for it to appear properly. This website was built using the PowerPoint files. PowerPoint is a Microsoft product and as such likes Microsoft browsers.
All my posts are OPINION only. Do not buy or sell securities based on my opinion.
TGGI News............
A New Audio Interview with Manny Losada, President and CEO of Trans Global Group, Inc., is Now at SmallCapVoice.com
AUSTIN, Texas, Dec 14, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- SmallCapVoice.com, Inc. announced today that a new audio interview with Trans Global Group, Inc. (Pink Sheets: TGGI) is now available. The interview can be heard at http://smallcapvoice.com/blog/12-10-09-audio-interview-with-trans-global-group-inc-otcpk-tggi/.
SmallCapVoice.com is a recognized corporate investor relations firm, with clients nationwide, known for its ability to help emerging growth companies build a following among retail and institutional investors. SmallCapVoice.com utilizes its stock newsletter to feature its daily stock picks, audio interviews, as well as its clients' financial news releases. SmallCapVoice.com also offers individual investors all the tools they need to make informed decisions about the stocks they are interested in. Tools like stock charts, stock alerts, and investor fact sheets can assist with investing in stocks that are traded on the OTC BB and Pink Sheets. To learn more about SmallCapVoice.com and their services, please visit http://www.smallcapvoice.com/services.html.
About Ecosafe:
ECOFL is in the business of selling and installing foam insulation and marketing a revolutionary new product called Infinite R. ECOFL and American Green Group, Inc. (www.americangreengroup.com) have formed a joint venture which will give ECOFL exclusive rights to 14 states to sell and install Ecosafe Premium Foam and market Infinite R.
About TGGI
Trans Global Group, Inc. is in the business of partnering or acquiring GREEN products. It is currently exploring other relationships to add to its partnership with American Green Group.
This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Litigation Reform Act. The statements reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events that involve risks and uncertainties. Among others, these risks include the failure to meet schedule or performance requirements of the Company's contracts, the Company's liquidity position, the Company's ability to obtain new contracts, the emergence of competitors with greater financial resources, and the impact of competitive pricing. In the light of these uncertainties the forward-looking events referred to in this release might not occur.
SOURCE: SmallCapVoice.com
CONTACT:
SmallCapVoice.com Stuart T. Smith, 512-267-2430 info@smallcapvoice.com
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AMLJ...U.S. Adds Drones to Fight Smuggling
December 7, 2009
PALMDALE, Calif. — To help spot and track smugglers, the Homeland Security Department is expanding its use of drones, the unmanned aircraft widely used in Iraq and other war zones, beyond the Mexican and Canadian borders to the Caribbean and possibly other seas.
Ann Johansson for The New York Times
Capt. Steve Truhlar, left; Lt. Thomas Shuler; Adm. Jody Beckenridge; and a Predator B aircraft.
The department, through its Customs and Border Protection division, already operates five of the aircraft, known as the Predator B, along the Southwest border from a base in Arizona and the Canadian border from an installation in North Dakota.
Like the drones used by the military, these drones can fly long ranges at high altitudes and are difficult to detect. But the drones that have been used at the border since 2005 are for surveillance and tracking and do not carry weapons.
The department on Monday unveiled a new drone loaded with special radar, cameras and sensors. Built for $13.5 million by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems here, it is designed for maritime use. It features wide-range radar that gives a more sweeping view of the ocean than any of the government’s fleet of manned aircraft.
The first maritime drones, about the size of a small turbo-prop commuter plane, will start flying in January off Florida, a smuggling hotbed.
A second drone is scheduled to take flight by summer in the Gulf of Mexico.
Both ultimately will also be used to patrol off the coast of Central America and Mexico, where drug traffickers use watercraft to bring cocaine from South America.
Officials are not sure if the drones will be used off or over Southern California. While there has been an increase recently in the smuggling of drugs and people on the seas there, congested airspace from several commercial airports and military bases could make use of the drone difficult.
A Customs drone — like all others controlled by human pilots from a remote location — that was flying over a sparsely populated area crashed into an Arizona hillside about 100 yards from a house in 2006, causing no injuries or property damage. The National Transportation Safety Board attributed the crash to human error and made several recommendations to make the program safer, most but not all of which were adopted by Customs and Border Protection.
Still, Homeland Security officials praised the aircraft as a safe and important tool that over land has contributed to the seizing of more than 22,000 pounds of marijuana and the apprehension of 5,000 illegal immigrants.
“This is an extraordinary step forward,” said Adm. Thad W. Allen of the Coast Guard, which will join Customs and Border Protection on drone missions. “It will help us immeasurably.”
Michael C. Kostelnik, an assistant commissioner at Customs and Border Protection, said the drones could fly more than 20 hours at a time, more than double the typical manned mission of about 10 hours.
They travel 275 miles an hour and, Mr. Kostelnik said, are far quieter than conventional aircraft to the point of being virtually imperceptible to anyone on the ground or seas below them.
“Right out of the chute they could do things nothing else could do,” said Mr. Kostelnik, standing next to the whale-gray aircraft, which was formally presented to his agency at an afternoon ceremony here.
The drones do have limitations. They operate under what is known as visual flight rules, which means the weather must be clear enough for controllers to see where it is going, somewhat limiting its use.
The program has its critics. The union for Border Patrol agents has criticized the drones as costly and inefficient and has suggested the money would be better spent on adding workers and equipment on the ground.
“Unmanned aircraft serve a very useful role in military combat situations, but are not economical or efficient in civilian law enforcement applications,” said T. J. Bonner, president of the Border Patrol union. “There are a number of other technologies that are capable of providing a greater level of usefulness at a far lower cost. It appears that the contractors have once again managed to sell a bill of goods to the politicians and bureaucrats who oversee the procurement of technology designed to secure our borders.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/08/us/08drone.html
hog
SMED....More Americans have been vaccinated against seasonal flu this fall than ever before by this time of year, federal health officials said Friday.
Sixty million people have gotten the winter flu vaccine — probably because they’re paying more attention to flu warnings in general, thanks to swine flu. It’s an unprecedented number of seasonal flu shots for October; most usually aren’t given until later in the fall.
Part of it is due to supply: There are already 85 million doses of seasonal flu vaccine available, a much larger amount than usual for this early in the fall. Most years, roughly 100 million doses are used during the season.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33449637/ns/health-cold_and_flu/
Where do all those needles go...into sharps containers....
Sharps was awarded a $40 million contract in February this year by an agency of the U.S. government to provide its Sharps(R)MWMS(TM), a Medical Waste Management System designed to be an integral part of governmental and commercial emergency preparedness programs. Sharps(R)MWMS(TM) is a comprehensive medical waste solution which includes an array of services and products necessary to effectively collect, store and dispose of medical waste outside of the hospital and large healthcare facility setting and is capable of rapid deployment.
Sharps Compliance Awarded GSA Schedule Contract and Distribution and Pricing Agreement
FINANCIALS.....http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=smed
http://www.sharpsinc.com/ ............hog
XODG....Look around at the LED lights...seeing more???
http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800502990_480200_NT_1983516e.HTM
A survey taken at the recent 2007 Hong Kong International Lighting Fair validated the strong global growth for LED lighting applications, according to Cree Inc. The survey established awareness of the energy-efficiency benefits of LEDs and indicated that the adoption trend should continue through the end of the decade.
The survey found 72 percent of respondents have witnessed a growth rate in excess of 20 percent for LED lighting applications in their businesses over the past six months. Almost two-thirds of respondents (63 percent) believe LED lighting will comprise more than 50 percent of their sales or installations by 2009.
In addition, the survey stated that future growth in the LED lighting market is expected to come from a mix of applications—with street/parking (20 percent), residential indoor (17 percent), retail/display (17 percent) and office (15 percent) cited as the leading opportunities.
Survey respondents represent top decision-makers at lighting manufacturers who attended the 2007 Hong Kong International Lighting Fair—the largest lighting show in Asia and the second largest in the world. Nearly half the respondents to this survey were from outside of Asia, reflecting the survey's global reach.
"The survey results present us with a clear and positive picture of growth patterns and expectations from leaders in fixture design and manufacturing," said Greg Merritt, director of corporate marketing, Cree.
XODG...http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/30/business/energy-environment/30led.html?ref=business
LED Bulbs Save Substantial Energy, a Study Finds
Published: November 29, 2009
Does the latest generation of energy-saving light bulbs save energy? A comprehensive study conducted by Osram, the German lighting company, provides evidence that they do.
Rick Friedman for The New York Times
A standard incandescent bulb over its life will use almost five times the energy of an LED bulb, a German study concluded.
That is because no one knew if the production of LED lamps required more energy than needed for standard incandescent bulbs. While it is indisputable that LEDs use a fraction of the electricity of a regular bulb to create the same amount of light, if more energy were used in the manufacturing and distribution process, then the lighting industry could be traveling down a technological dead end.
The study results show that over the entire life of the bulb — from manufacturing to disposal — the energy used for incandescent bulbs is almost five times that used for compact fluorescents and LED lamps.
The energy used during the manufacturing phase of all lamps is insignificant — less than 2 percent of the total. Given that both compact fluorescents and LEDs use about 20 percent of the electricity needed to create the same amount of light as a standard incandescent, both lighting technologies put incandescents to shame.
“We welcome these kinds of studies,” said Kaj den Daas, chief executive of Philips Lighting North America. The Osram study “provides facts where we often have only emotional evidence.” Philips recently became the first entrant in the Energy Department’s L Prize, a race to develop the first practical 60-watt LED equivalent to a standard light bulb.
To calculate what is know as a Life Cycle Assessment of LED lamps, Osram compared nearly every aspect of the manufacturing process, including the energy used in manufacturing the lamps in Asia and Europe, packaging them, and transporting them to Germany where they would be sold. It also looked at the emissions created in each stage, and calculated the effect of six different global warming indexes.
Those included the amount of greenhouse gas emissions created by each process, the acid rain potential, eutrophication (excessive algae), photochemical ozone creation, the release of harmful chemical compounds, and the resultant scarcity of gas, coal, and oil.
Compact fluorescents also contain harmful mercury, which can pollute the soil when discarded.
In addition to the amount of electricity needed for each process, the energy used and the emissions created as a result, were also calculated. In China and Malaysia, where part of the LED production took place, that meant coal and natural gas respectively. In Germany, where the lamps would be sold, electricity is created from a mix of coal, nuclear and renewable sources.
The methodology followed the procedures set down in ISO 14040/44, an industry standard. The results were certified by three university professors in Denmark and Germany as adhering to the standard.
“The difference in energy use between incandescents, compact fluorescents and LEDs is definitely significant,” said Dr. Matthias Finkbeiner of Berlin’s Technical University and chairman of the study’s review committee. “The results are very stable.”
While 60-watt lamps are more popular light sources, they were not used in the study as Osram does not yet have a commercial version. The amount of energy used to illuminate 60-watt-type lamps would increase, but the increase would affect all types of lamps and therefore not change the relative results, according to Dr. Berit Wessler, head of innovations management at Osram Opto Semiconductors in Regensburg, Germany.
Dr. Wessler expects the results to shift even more in favor of LEDs, as newer generations of that technology become even more efficient, requiring less energy to produce the same amount of light.
“Everything I’ve seen strengthens the assumption that LED efficiency will increase,” she said. “There has not been much improvement in incandescent efficiency in the last 10 years.”
XODG...http://www.ledsmagazine.com/news/5/2/9
LED market to grow by 12% in 2008
18 Feb 2008
Strategies Unlimited predicts that the LED industry is emerging from a slow growth phase, and that the total market size in 2012 will exceed $11bn.
The market for packaged high-brightness LEDs is set to grow by 12% in 2008, according to a market update presented by Bob Steele at the 2008 Strategies in Light conference in Santa Clara, California.
Steele said that the market grew by 9.5% in 2007 to reach $4.6 billion, somewhat higher than the 6% growth in 2005 and 2006.
In the next five years, further acceleration in growth is expected as applications outside the mobile phone market come to the fore. Steele predicts a CAGR of 20% in the next five years, with a total market of $11.4 billion in 2012.
Steele predicted that the largest application in 2012, with 44% of the market, will be Signs & Displays, which includes backlighting for large LCD screens (monitors and TVs). For 2007, the largest segment was Mobile Appliances, with 44% market share. However, the largest growth was seen in the Illumination and Signs & Displays markets.
Solid-state illumination accounted for 7% of the market, or $320 million, in 2007, and this figure is expected to grow to nearly $1.37 billion by 2012. Steele said that energy-efficiency is a major driver for moving LEDs into the general (white) lighting market, but products must deliver value on a cost-of-ownership basis, and must have proven LED fixture efficiency and lifetime to win customer acceptance.
Between 2004 and 2007, unit shipments have increased by 26% per year to around 39 billion units, while ASPs (average selling prices) have fallen by around 16%. Overall, the product mix has shifted quite dramatically, with high power packages now accounting for 10% of the market.
In its ninth consecutive year, Strategies in Light, the leading event for the global LED industry, attracted more than 1000 visitors to the conference and exhibition. Next year's event will take place on February 18-20, 2009.
Strategies Unlimited also announced that the first Strategies in Light Japan event will be held in Tokyo on October 16-17, 2008.
XODG....LED lighting is a product to be a part of...I'll take a look later tonight...thx...pappy
I have a position in xodg.
I like to project pps targets based on runrates for companies that have accelerating growth trends.
Using a p/e of 10 x my projected eps runrate of $0.30 for the 3rd qtr. 4x $0.075=$0.30x10=$3.00 pps target.
JBII...buzz cloud...Reads..Posts....hot topic
Looking good over here hf2!
good to have ya back amigo!
AMLJ...http://www.amlj.com/
http://www.defense.gov/specials/uav2002/
Unmanned aerial vehicles commonly referred to as UAV's are defined as powered aerial vehicles sustained in flight by aerodynamic lift over most of their flight path and guided without an onboard crew. They may be expendable or recoverable and can fly autonomously or piloted remotely. UAVs are a key element within the concept of information dominance. Historically the greatest use of UAVs have been in the areas of intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance. While UAVs play an increasing role in these mission areas, we are just beginning to understand the operational impact of multiple UAV operations and their importance to 21st century air power needs and future warfighters. As the US military adapts to a new set of realities and new ways of doing business, greater possibilities evolve for the employment of UAVs.
RODM...Opexa Therapeutics, Inc. Announces $5.1 Million Securities Offering
Opexa Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPXA), a company developing a novel T-cell therapy for multiple sclerosis (MS), today entered into definitive agreements with institutional investors in a direct placement with gross proceeds of $5.1 million. The offering is made pursuant to the Form S-3 shelf registration statement that was filed by Opexa with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and declared effective by the SEC on November 23, 2009. The offering is expected to close on or about December 14, 2009, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions. Opexa intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including activities related to further clinical development of Tovaxin® and for other working capital and operational purposes
The securities in the offering include 2,550,000 shares of Opexa common stock and warrants to purchase up to 1,275,000 shares of Opexa common stock, which securities are being offered in “units” at a price of $2.00 per unit. Each unit consists of one share of Opexa common stock, a five year Series A warrant to purchase 0.35 of an additional share of Opexa common stock, and a one year Series B warrant to purchase 0.15 of an additional share of Opexa common stock. The warrants have an exercise price of $2.55 per share and are exercisable commencing six months and one day after closing
“We are pleased to welcome new institutional investors to Opexa,” commented Neil K. Warma, Opexa’s President & CEO. “This influx of capital more than doubles our cash liquidity to almost $9 million and creates a meaningful amount of operational flexibility for the business. While partnership discussions around Tovaxin continue, these proceeds will also support activities related to further clinical development of Tovaxin, our personalized cell therapy treatment for Multiple Sclerosis.” Rodman & Renshaw, LLC, a subsidiary of Rodman & Renshaw Capital Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: RODM - News), acted as the exclusive placement agent for the transaction
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