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WLD, over the weekend I have substantially improved my system. I have added one new indicator, improved the use of the other indicators, diversified the system to other indices/sectors, and sharpened my position sizing/money management techniques.
According to the "improved" system, 50% of my trades since early June were either fully or partially faulty. The improved system should allow me to capture a reasonable percentage of the total of NDX daily percentage changes which is 50% a month on average (since 2000) or 100% using Profunds (the 50% number was obtained in Excel by adding absolute daily percentage changes in NDX over an average month or 20.85 trading days).
Right now I am waiting for a valid system signal to trade.
no trades in a week...what's up, george?
George,
I think today will tell us whether the last 2 days have been a headfake up or the real thing.
Regards
Marc
George,
It could be the real move up but I am staying in cash until I SEE IT TRENDING.
Regards
Marc
George,
The SOX is down >1 percent.I think it will lead us down.
Regards
Marc
George,
I am buying UOPIX for one day,then back to cash .
Regards
Marc
just saw the header: nice trading, george! based on the indicators you're using, you picked a fabulous time to break in the new system.
George,
I was ready to get out if we broke 1250 at the close.It looks like I will stay long.
Regards
Marc
you rockin' out tonight?
-g-
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George,
We need to close higher than 1298 otherwise the short term trendline will be broken and I will be out to watch.
Regards
Marc
George,
Looking good so far.It looks like the 38% fib(1259) was the majic number
Regards
Marc
So much for positive divergence
positive divergence on the 5 min stochs
Rick
They are no loads through profunds.You have to have a 15,000 min to start an account
Regards
Marc
Marc, what does it cost you go in and out of the ultra funds?
thanks, Rick--
I went long
George,
I will be going to UOPIX at the close as long as we see some red for the day.
Regards
Marc
George,
We were on borrowed time.I was waiting for us to drop like a rock.
Regards
Marc
Marc, good thinking.
George,
I thought we might go higher today ,I think I will short for a one day countertrend day.
Regards
Marc
there is something very familiar about the recent trades...at any rate, when you updated closing the positions you didn't update the percentages etc.
George,
I still think we may go up tomorrow,and if we do I will short for Wed.I am going to cash and taking the gains.
Regards
Marc
George,
What a great day to be long
Regards
Marc
George,
I don't think it will happen but if we don't hold 1230 at the close I will be out to watch.
Regards
Marc
George,
I am going long in UOPIX
George,
I am tempted to go long if we reach that lower BB again at the close.Your thoughts
Regards
Marc
George,
We would have to go >1215 at the close for me to go long
Regards
Marc
it has been weird. all the red days in nas land. i think we only had back to back red days like one time in last three months. now a string of 5. should we make it red on the close i am likely to hedge off as well.
steve
Steve,
If we went red I would stay long after looking at 6 black crows.I would stay until the countertrend day occurs then be out.
Regards
Marc
wouldnt you be out no matter what the outcome, green or red today if expecting red in coming days?
steve
George,
If we pop and run I will be out at the end of the day since I expect more downside to follow.
Regards
Marc
Marc, look at these market breadth indicators:
(1) Advance-Decline Issues/Volume:
http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?$NYAD,$NYHL,$NAAD,$NAHL,$AMAD,$AMHL
(2) McLellan Summation Indices (based on Advance/Decline data):
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html
(3) Bullish Percentages:
http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?$BPNYA,$BPCOMPQ,$BPOEX,$BPNDX,$BPSPX,$BPINDU,$BPDISC,$BPSTAP,$BP...
Marc, tomorrow will be more decisive if we end green today.
I think he went long yesterday ?
Look at Title of Board.
Sure wish he would email or at least post(g)
George,
Do you hear the Market speak?
Triple bullish divergence on the 5 min stochs.
George,
The Market will speak today as to what direction we are heading.
Regards
Marc
yes, I have a signal to go long...but my system has not been backtested for breadth indicators (advance/decline)...and they may have topped so the risk is pretty high if they did
are you close to a signal today?
Are we going to make it back into the channel?Time will tell
George,
We will need to hold 1230 at the close.Otherwise the monthly channel will be broken.I don't think this we be a problem but as we found out this past week,The Market doesn't care what I think.
Regards
Marc
positive divergence on the 5 min stochs
We need to ramp and climb,not pop and drop.
BTK has been the leader
George,
Green on the NDX.Up we go.
Regards
Marc
Hi Exp,
Great commentary and discourse.....sounds like your on the right track....I think each trader has to decide what trading style works for them and their life style etc. I have tried a variety of styles and the one that i always come back to is to be strictly a daytrader and go to cash every evening. I am not looking for large returns that obviously requires more risk. If someone can pull out of the QQQs .15-0.20.....consistently each day that is doable....I don't think you have to look far for those results on this site....Zeev I believe does 30-40 percent annually....obviously in a well capitalized trading account....I know in an exchange with Ed Downs with his simple system I believe that Ed actually had returns over 100 percent two years ago in an email i received with his trading records.....to me it has come down to getting rid of all the indicators...for decision purposes....it really is all about keeping it simple.....support resistance...and trend in your particular time frame....trade well.
fund % OF BUY SELL TRADE ACCT MONTHLY # FUND type ACCT DATE PRICE DATE PRICE %GAIN %GAIN %GAIN --------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE + 1.5% --------------------------------------------------------------- JULY +11.2% -------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST - 5.0% -------------------------------------------------------------- Modified System 7 UOPIX long 40% 8/26 17.83 9/03 19.24 8 UOPIX long 10% 8/27 18.11 9/03 19.24 9 USPIX short 10% 9/03 25.55 9/08 24.56 10 SHPIX short 10% 9/05 27.05 9/08 26.61 11 URPIX short 10% 9/05 28.32 9/22 28.15George
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