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kan du ikke lige gøre helt klart hvad du forstår ved at et land boomer. Hvis du mener det jeg tror du mener, tager du meget fejl.Mange fattige lande boomer bestemt ikke. Hvilke lande i Afrika boomer??. Mener du alle lande i det tidligere sovjetimperium boomer?? Kan du kun diskutere ved hjælp af hån og skældsord.? Er der slet ingen grænser for din selvhøjtidelighed??
Kina er rigere som mange andre lande, men gennemsnitskineseren lever uendelig langt fra hvad vi forstår ved et velfærdssamfund. Tag dog en tur derover i stedet for bare at sidde og gøre sig klog bag en skærm. Jeg skal i hvert fald ikke længere investere i kinesiske aktier.
PMI kan købes i 1,67 igen.
Det er næsten ligesom et klokkeværk.
Jeg vil holde øje med dem næste gang. Det kommer på samme måde igen.
og iøvrigt flytter virksomheder i stigende grad produktion til kina alligevel
ikke for at udnytte de billige produktionsomkostninger til eksport, så der er ikke tale om at flytte produktionen mere, men om at være med i et marked, der eksploderer
og for at få del i historiens største boom i et hjemmemarked på 1.3 mia mennesker, der har et potentiale dobbelt så stort som usa, europa og japan tilsammen og som vokser med ca 17% om året på industriproduktion og investeringer på 25% om året og forbrug på 13-15% omåret
de fleste investeringer i kina fra virksomheder i den rige verden har efterhånden ikke ret meget med outsourcing at gøre, men tjener alene det formå at deltage i den ekstremt hurtigt vækst i verdens efterhånden største marked
det har jeg jo skrevet om 117 tusinde gange
at det ikke bare er kina der boomer
men alle de fattige lande
incl østeuropa, vietnam, afrika og mange andre
de flytter ikke noget som helst
men ekspanderer bare over en bred kam
og det er DET jeg har sagt
du VIL misforstå
og forstår intet
kina er jo snart ved at blive et rigt land
så produktionsomkostningerne i kina er efterhånden relativt høje sammenlignet med mange andre fattige lande
så de kan outsource til de lande, der er fattigere d.v.s. har lavere lønninger og kina øger så deres import fra de lande eller producere der og eksporterer fra de lande i deres navn
medens deres vækst fortsætter
du mangler totalt overblik og kommer med den ene forvirrende udtalelse efter den anden uden sammenhæng
AMD i 4,75
Mange fristelser
Har købt lidt WM idag - ved godt alle fraråder finansaktier
men det skider jeg på. Køb når panikken er størst ikk ? Hvis den overlever er den i 15-20 om 1-2 ar. Hvis ikke er det bare sur røv.
Hvad nu mister le. Industrien forlader Kina.Stigende inflation. Stigende lønninger, høje transportudgifter osv. Oveni det hele kniber det med at holde kvaliteten. Det er billigere at få tingene fremstillet i Østeuropa. Ellers er der "nye" produktionslande som Cambodja og Bangladesh som kan bruges. Det er nøjagtig den tendens som jeg også har sporet hos bekendte som har produktion i Kina.
Hanne
En kollega blev indlagt med hjerteflimmer i går.
Han havde en hvilepuls på 180. Det er skidt, men nu har han det fint.
Hvad om vi sendte noget medicin til Bernanke? Markedet har brug for det. Det reagerer fuldstændigt på samme måde. Jeg tror vi er tæt på bunden. Mine aktier falder i hvertfald ikke nævneligt, men fiser voldsomt op og ned med et par dages mellemrum. Fuldstændigt ustyrligt som altid bare værre.
US Economics: The Perfect Storm Returns.
The US economy’s durability won’t last, in our view. The combination of tight financial conditions, higher energy quotes, higher
global inflation and weaker global growth may soon promote a mild downturn. Specifically, we think the economy will contract by a
1% average annual rate in 4Q08 and 1Q09, and the economy will be flat over the four quarters ending in 2Q09. This should keep
the Fed on hold at least into early next year.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/24/2284759.htm
http://seekingalpha.com/article/82450-china-steelmaker-agrees-to-biggest-ever-iron-ore-price-increase
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10518060&ref=rss
Small Banks' Reckoning Day Is Coming
Billions in Troubled Construction Loans
Promise to Pose Test for Regional Lenders
By MICHAEL CORKERY, JENNIFER S. FORSYTH and LINGLING WEI
July 2, 2008; Page C1
Wall Street is bracing for regional and small banks to fess up to large losses from their mounting volume of soured construction loans made primarily to home builders.
According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., $45.4 billion of the $631.8 billion in construction loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter were delinquent. When banks announce second-quarter results in coming weeks, they are expected to report sharp increases in loans that builders can't repay. Banks are also facing intensifying pressure from federal and state regulators to deal with the problem loans on their books.
WHICH BANKS WILL FEEL THE PAIN?
See a sortable list of small and regional banks with sizable exposure to construction and land loans and with notable delinquency rates.That will put additional pressure on an already stressed financial system. Banks have begun to dump bad construction and land loans at discounts, curtail new lending and halt construction projects that are under way to preserve capital. Some analysts even see a wave of bank failures as a possibility.
"Across the industry, the second quarter is going to be a tough quarter," says Keith Maio, chief executive of the National Bank of Arizona, a unit of Zions Bancorp, which lent heavily to home builders and developers. "It's going to continue to be tough until the real-estate market hits a bottom."
Scores of banks were already suffering headaches by the end of the first quarter, according to a review by The Wall Street Journal of FDIC-filed reports by 6,919 banks that make construction loans. The smallest banks, those with total assets of less than $5 billion, faced the biggest problems. The WSJ analysis didn't include savings-and-loan institutions, or so-called thrift banks.
Nearly one in three of the banks analyzed -- or 2,182 -- had construction-loan portfolios that exceeded 100% of their total risk-based capital, a red flag to regulators, although it doesn't mean the bank is in danger of failing. Risk-based capital is a cushion that banks can dig into to cover losses.
Even more alarming, 73 of those banks had construction-loan delinquency rates of more than 25%. Executives at all of the banks that responded to questions acknowledged the problems but expressed confidence they had the capital to weather the storm.
At Bremerton, Wash.-based Westsound Bank, new Chief Executive Terry Peterson agreed that his bank became "much, much too concentrated" in construction loans. About 43% of Westsound Bank's construction and land loans in the first quarter were delinquent.
Mr. Peterson was appointed CEO recently to clean up the troubled bank, after regulators issued a "cease and desist" order in March requiring the bank to change lending practices. "We are pretty much using all of our human capital to address our loan problems," he says.
Larger regional banks also face mounting construction-loan problems, but are in decent shape. Thirty-eight of them had more than 100% of their total risk-based capital in construction loans at the end of the first quarter, but only nine of those faced delinquency rates of more than 10%.
Over the next few quarters, banks are expected to begin recording much larger losses. In 2007 and the first quarter of this year, U.S. banks wrote down just 0.7% of their residential construction and land assets as bad debt, according to Zelman & Associates, a research firm. Over the next five years that figure could rise to 10% and 26%, which would amount to about $65 billion to $165 billion, Zelman projects.
During the housing boom, many small and regional banks doubled down on construction loans because they were largely shut out of the home mortgage market dominated by large originators. But now the banks' difficulties are threatening to sharply shrink the home-building industry. Credit Suisse analyst Dan Oppenheim estimates that as many as 50% of the closely held builders won't survive because of the tightening lending environment and housing downturn.
Strategies for coping with the problem loans vary widely. Large banks, such as IndyMac Bancorp Inc. and KeyBank, have been trying to sell billions of dollars of construction and land loans. IndyMac said in a filing Monday that it is working with regulators to shore up its capital. (See related article.)
"The banks are running as fast as they can to get out of housing," says Tom McCormick, president of Astoria Homes, a large, closely held builder in Las Vegas.
Mr. McCormick is involved in a fight with KeyBank, which recently initiated foreclosure proceedings on a $24 million construction loan financing a Las Vegas housing project. Mr. McCormick says the bank took that action even though his company was current on debt payments. In court documents, KeyBank says the builder fell behind.
Mr. McCormick says he found investors to buy out his loans at 70 cents on the dollar, but the bank refused. He also says that KeyBank has prevented him from closing home sales. "I personally think the fact that you would punish any innocent home buyer...is shameful," Mr. McCormick wrote in an email to KeyBank executives. A spokeswoman for KeyCorp, KeyBank's parent, declined to comment.
Many smaller banks have been more willing to work with struggling builders rather than foreclose on their projects. But these banks are coming under pressure from regulators to more aggressively write down their loans, amid declining real-estate values. This process could force many more loans into default.
Some community banks are bristling under the regulatory pressure. "The federal government is being too reactionary," says Damian Kassab, chief executive of Michigan-based Warren Bank, which reported that 47% of its construction loans are delinquent. "They want to see it done as quickly as possible. I say 'can't we just relax, take a deep breath and work with the borrowers.'"
Analysts question whether some small banks are putting off foreclosures because they lack adequate capital to absorb the large losses.
Banks seeking a quick fix by selling off their troubled loans may find fewer buyers. Laurence Pelosi, an executive director of Morgan Stanley Real Estate, a major land investor, told the Pacific Coast Builders Conference last week that the appetite for distressed residential real estate may be waning among some investors. "The complexity of the business and the increasing opportunities in the commercial sector may lead to a shift away from residential," Mr. Pelosi says. "That will have a further impact on values."
AMD:
Lige så usikker som altid. Måske det var en fejl...dem har man jo lavet nogle stykker af de sidste mange måneder.
Hvor meget værre det mon kan blive. Sikkert meget værre.
AMD takes more charges from ATI acquisition
Analyst says chip maker has now written off more than 50% of purchase price
By Dan Gallagher, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:42 a.m. EDT July 11, 2008Comments: 3SAN FRANCISCO (Marketwatch) -- Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. hit a new low early Friday after the company said it will take nearly $1 billion in charges for the second quarter, mostly due to its acquisition of ATI Technologies two years ago.
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the chip maker (AMD:Advanced Micro Devices, Inc
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 4.71-0.25-5.14%
AMD 4.71, -0.25, -5.1%) also said it will take charges for layoffs and for the impairment of certain short-term investments -- including its investment in flash-memory maker Spansion Inc., a joint venture which spun off into its own company.
Shares of AMD were trading as low as $4.60 Friday morning, down 7% from the previous close and setting a new 52-week low for a stock that has shed more than two-thirds of its value over the past 12 months.
In its filing, the company said an internal audit found that the handheld and DTV reporting units of the Consumer Electronics segment that it acquired from ATI Technologies "have not performed in accordance with the company's expectations." As a result, AMD said it will take a goodwill and intangible asset impairment charge of $880 million for the quarter ended June 28.
AMD acquired ATI Technologies in July of 2006 in a deal valued at $5.4 billion. But the company has struggled to make the expensive deal pay off. The debt from the deal has also weighed the company down as it fights to compete with the much-larger Intel Corp. (INTC:Intel Corporation
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 20.38-0.24-1.16%
Analyst Brian Piccioni of BMO Capital Markets said in a report Friday that -- with the latest charges -- AMD has effectively now written off more than half of the total ATI purchase price. The company had taken a previous write-down of about $1.5 billion late last year from the merger.
Another past deal is haunting AMD. Spansion was a joint venture of AMD and Fujitsu that makes flash memory chips. The company was spun off as a new public entity in late 2005, but has since fallen on hard times. Its shares have plunged from their $12 initial public offering price to their current level around $2.
AMD said Friday that it will take a $24 million charge for the impairment of its investment in Spansion plus another $12 million in charges for its holdings in auction-rate securities.
In addition, the company said it will take charges of $36 million related to recent restructuring activities, which mostly include severance charges for employees laid off in a cost-cutting program.
Somewhat offsetting the charges will be a gain of about $190 million to the company's gross margins stemming from the sale of chip manufacturing equipment.
Det er endnu værre at bruge en konto med gearing, selvom det egentligt er det samme, men..
Det kan slå bunden helt underud på 14 dagen, når man gearer.
Jeg har haft en legekonto på etrade på et tidspunkt og skal ikke have noget med det at gøre. Man skal kunne grave sig ned som under 1 verdenskrig, ellers så går det galt på et eller andet tidspunkt og det er der ingen der gider.
Jeg gør i hvertfalt ikke.
Nu kan jeg råbe AMD to da moon igen. Havde 20% tab på de resterende, DRAM exchange viser ikke nogen tegn på svaghed i drammene. http://www.dramexchange.com/default.asp
flash til telefonerne falder - ATML.
Techaktierne i asien steg da vist, nå jah. De er skøre de amerikanere.
roskilde bank er vidst nærmest gået konkurs
interessant at den kunne stige så meget og så falde så meget
det er farligt at gamble med lånte midler
Jeg har støtteopkøbt lidt AMD.
Kurs 4,70 - Købt lidt flere end jeg solgte i 7,5 for et par måneder siden.
Den har fået et "breakdown" i 4,9 - no support i arear below.
- og nu er det nok modstand på vej op.
Mottoet er:
Har I tabt skeen?
Geronimo...charge or die (hvilket giver samme resultat)
Boookbooobbboo...Chicken...??
Jeg morer mig med at smide mine penge væk. What do I care.
Den er "pissebillig" og jeg savner ikke de penge.
Umiddelbart ser det ikke godt ud synes jeg.
India (Nifty – 4,141) - The old support level at 4,448-4,500 now
becomes an important resistance zone. The advance from 3,848 should be limited to a partial retracement of the fall from the May peak.
Retracement resistance starts at 4,347 (38%), 4,516 (50%) and 4,692
(62%).
Jeg har lige ringet til vor herre.
Han tog ikke telefonen.
Jeg ringende fordi jeg tænkte - hvis Kinesiske aktier så god en ide - hvad så med Indiske?
De har fået endnu flere tæsk.
Regional - TECHNICALS
A temporary respite
Asian markets are set for a technical rebound.
Laurence Balanco (852) 26008576 laurence.balanco@clsa.com
As the regional benchmark (MXASJ – 459) is in a short-term oversold
position, marginally below the August 2007 low, a technical rally in the
coming weeks is likely. Targets for a recovery rally, based on a partial
retracement, extend from 501-530. The 501-516 area is particularly
attractive. If the regional benchmark rallies sharply on growing volumes and
improving breadth (only 9% of stocks in the regional benchmark sit above
their 40-week EMA) a more sustainable rally may be underway.
Gains limited to a partial retracement of losses. We view any rally that
materialises from current levels as a technical rebound that will be followed
by the resumption of downtrends in the region. Here we try and identify
resistane levels for the regions major markets:
China (MSCI China – 59) - The advance from the 58 low should be a
partial retracement of the decline from the May peak. Retracement
resistance is 65 (38%), 68 (50%) and 70 (62%). There is a resistance
zone at 66 formed by the mid-April low and the falling 50-day EMA.
Korea (Kospi – 1,537) - Resistance starts at 1,571, the January and
March lows. The index may be partially retracing the decline from the
1,901 – if so, retracement resistance is at 1,640 (38%), 1,687 (50%)
and 1,735 (62%).
Taiwan (TWSE – 7,075) - Initial resistance is found at 7,384, the
January low. Retracement resistance of the May-June decline is at 7,794
(38%), 8,065 (50%) and 8,346 (62%). The chart shows resistance at
7,890, the mid-March low.
Hong Kong (HSI – 21,821) - The uptrend from the 2004 wave 2 low
remains intact. The advance from long-term trend line support should be
a partial retracement of the decline from 26,377. Retracement resistance
is at 22,950 (38%), 23,565 (50%) and 24,196 (62%). The chart shows
gap resistance at the 23,741-24,392 area.
India (Nifty – 4,141) - The old support level at 4,448-4,500 now
becomes an important resistance zone. The advance from 3,848 should
be limited to a partial retracement of the fall from the May peak.
Retracement resistance starts at 4,347 (38%), 4,516 (50%) and 4,692
(62%).
Singapore (FSSTI – 2,896) - If we are correct and other Asian markets
rally from here it is possible that the FTSE STI will not make a new low.
The result of this would be a steady period of outperformance by
Singapore versus the regional benchmark since the March low.
Retracement resistance starts at 3,015 (38%) and ends at 3,104 (62%).
TDF Dopingkontroller, sådan skal det gøres.
http://www.cyclingworld.dk/index.php?p=nyheder/profil.php&id=11894
Den er nok bedre end FLS, og det er rigtigt, at den nok er større end FLS på cement.
KLIC er i 6,25
usa er også i dårligt humør i formarkedet
GE regnskabet var ikke godt nok
pippen er ved at afprøve sine nye kjoler som faldskærme, for hun hopper ud af vinduet hvert andet øjeblik og kommer så humpende op ad bagtrappen
lille pip nøjes med at hoppe ud af sengen, men det er også slemt nok, når der ikke er gulvtæpper på gulvet
gumsen bliver bare liggende i sengen, så gør det jo slet ikke ondt siger hun filosoferende
købschance alumina selvom aluminium og alumina priserne skyder mod nye højder er den faldet 50% pga mangel på gas i australien pga en eksplosion, der jo selvfølgelig er midlertidig
SYDNEY, July 10 (Reuters) - A gas shortage in west Australia will reduce Alumina Ltd's (AWC.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) third quarter after tax underlying earnings by about A$31 million ($29 million), the company said on Thursday.
Alumina's alumina and aluminium making operations are run under a joint venture with Alcoa of Australia, which is 60 percent owned by U.S. based Alcoa Inc (AA.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and 40 percent by Alumina.
An explosion on June 3 at Apache Energy's (APA.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) Varanus Island facility in Western Australia state shut gas production, disrupting power supplies to Western Australia state, including to the alumina refineries run by the joint venture.
Alumina said the estimated impact on earnings from the explosion was based estimates by Apache that supplies will be restored by mid-August 2008. ($1=A$1.05)
hun har åbenbart ikke købt sit tøj her, måske vi skulle købe aktien?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HOTT&t=my
We are still actively dissecting the June same-store sales data out this morning, but on balance, it appears as if the sector averted the much ballyhooed crash and burn scenario.
pippen har lige købt 10 nye kjoler og tasker, hun syntes dem hun havde så for gamle ud, penge har hun ikke, men hun fik købt dem alligevel
Stimulus checks and favorable weather served as the primary underpinnings to many retailers reporting better than expected comparable store sales (comps). The standout for the month was once again Wal-Mart (WMT), which reported a 5.8% comp increase. Management positioned the company nicely ahead of the economic turbulence now being felt, and as a result is reaping the rewards. The world's largest retailer experienced strength in consumable goods, no big revelation given its price leadership position, while trends in the home and apparel categories continued to strengthen. Second quarter earnings guidance was raised ever so slightly, but in our view investors should anticipate a meaningful beat of the consensus in mid-August given the company's stellar inventory positioning.
Elsewhere, the deep discount retailers, such as Fred's (FRED) and Family Dollar (FDO) had noteworthy sales strength and continued to gain share due to the compelling price points on all goods.
Department stores, in line with our thinking, endured a challenging month as consumers looked to one stop shopping retailers to fill their everyday needs and occasional splurges. We would still avoid the sector, or short it entirely, as it's reasonable to assume that these retail behemoths will report lackluster sales for the back to school and holiday seasons. However, we would begin to pay attention to Kohl's (KSS), which announced a positive June comp amid a clearer marketing campaign and more appropriate merchandise prices. In our opinion, the company has been the best department store in terms of inventory management, and could gain share and surprise on the earnings line for the critical upcoming selling seasons.
Among teen apparel companies, the story was dour as parents simply spent less to outfit their children's wardrobes. Moreover, teenagers have become noticeably more price conscious in recent months, and are seeking lower cost wardrobe alternatives. Aeropostale (ARO) had a stellar month, announcing a 12.0% comp increase and raising second quarter earnings guidance due to healthy merchandise margins. In the space, one stock to watch going forward is Hot Topic (HOTT). The struggling retailer is increasingly reporting better month sales trends and reducing promotional activity in its stores. The company has the easiest comp comparisons amongst its peer base, and if momentum is maintained, financial results in the second half the year could take the market by surprise.
nu falder aktierne ignen i europa selvom de steg i usa og asien
de er da for sløve de europæere
og der er ikke recession i europa sådan som der er det i usa
Colombia Car Sales Down 24% In June To 16,125 Vehicles
14 hours ago
BOGOTA (Dow Jones)--Colombian motor vehicle sales at the wholesale level fell 24% in June to 16,125 units compared with the same month in 2007, according to data released by the industry group Comite Automotor Thursday.
Vehicle sales fell 11% to 110,005 units in the first half of the year from the same period in 2007, when 123,386 vehicles were sold.
In January, monthly sales fell 6.3% compared with the same month in 2007, the first decrease recorded since November 2003. Meanwhile in February, vehicle sales fell 3% on-year, while in March they retreated 14%.
"Like many sectors in the economy that are decelerating, sales of cars have also been hit by high interest rates," Daniel Escobar, head of research at local brokerage Gesvalores, said.
The most recent figures show that monetary tightening is already cooling down the Colombian economy. Colombia's gross domestic product expanded 4.1% in the first quarter of this year from a year earlier. During the first quarter of 2007 GDP grew 9.1% year over year.
The central bank has gradually raised its key rate to 9.75% from 6% in April 2006 in a bid to stop inflationary pressures.
In 2005, 2006 and 2007, car sales rose at a pace faster than 25% as a strong peso and lower interest rates encouraged people to buy vehicles. Colombian car sales at the wholesale level reached a record high of 258,443 units last year.
General Motors Corp. (GM) topped the sales rankings in June with 5,404 units, down from 7,601 in June 2007.
French car maker Renault (13190.FR) took the No. 2 spot, with 1,722 units in June, down from 3,375 units in the same month last year.
Korean Hyundai Motor Co. (005380.SE) sold 1,953 cars in June, down from 2,546 vehicles in the same month last year.
Comite Automotor's statistics cover more than 90% of the vehicles sold in Colombia, including buses, private vehicles, taxis and trucks.
-By Diana Delgado, Dow Jones Newswires; 571-6955450; diana.delgado@dowjones.com
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/al?rnd=aLZ49klAXPqA0Hoj%2BsyPvg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
LG Display 2Q results: Hopes for early industry bottom-out fading 10
Kei Nihonyanagi (Tokyo): kei.nihonyanagi@gs.com, +81(3)6437-9883
Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
Yuji Fujimori (Tokyo): yuji.fujimori@gs.com, +81(3)6437-9880
Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
Bullish 3Q guidance likely to be viewed negatively by industry
LG Display’s 2Q (April-June) results conference call (at 9:00 pm JST on July 9) had a negative tone and
dashed slim expectations for an early bottoming-out for the industry, in our view. Management’s assumptions
look reasonable if panel demand is seasonal in 3Q, as it usually is, and we concur with the expectation for TV
demand to grow as panel prices decline. However, we see some risk in expecting panel demand to rebound
as much as it normally does in 3Q, considering panel inventories rose in 1H2008. We maintain our cautious
stance on the LCD industry as a whole.
Asia-Pacific Morning Summary July 10, 2008
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Management: Output at full capacity in 3Q, increasing capex
Contrary to market expectations, LG Display said it expects output to stay at full capacity in 3Q and plans to
increase 2008 capital spending to 3.8 tn won from its previous figure of 3.6 tn won. Management considers
end-2Q panel inventory levels (nearly three weeks’ worth overall; TV panels more than four weeks’ worth,
monitor panels two weeks’ worth) appropriate because the end-1Q levels (two weeks’ worth overall; TV
panels four weeks’ worth, monitor panels one week’s worth) were too low. It expects inventories to be down
at end-3Q compared to end-2Q.
Impact on component stocks: Price risk likely to remain an issue
In the absence of a reduction in industrywide capacity utilization, price risk is likely to remain an issue for
Japanese display component suppliers. LG Display expects its 3Q manufacturing costs to decline 4%-9%
qoq. More efficient glass usage, productivity improvements, and reductions in depreciation and other fixed
costs are likely to have a greater impact at LG Display than at other companies.
We maintain our estimates for Nippon Electric Glass (5214.T, Buy, Conviction Buy List), as its LCD glass
ASP probably declined only 5% yoy in 1Q, versus management’s and our expectation of a nearly 10%
decline. We do not see any short-term catalysts for the stock, but consider the stock attractive for longer-term
investors based on its P/E of 10X.
Impact on production equipment stocks: Investment deferral risk
The risk of investment being deferred will, we believe, remain a concern for production equipment stocks. LG
Display’s 6G investments have already been factored in. We maintain our Neutral coverage view.
Transportation
bulkmarkedet og kinas behov for jernmalm
SHANGHAI, July 10 (Reuters) - China, the world's top steel
producer and consumer, imported 230 million tonnes of iron ore
in the first half, up 22.5 percent from a year earlier, and
analysts said the momentum is not likely to ease in the second
half. Most iron ore mines in northern Chinese provinces, which
account for the bulk of domestic output, have halted production
ahead of the August Beijing Olympics, forcing local steel mills
to source more imported ores, they said. "It is very likely that some steel makers in northern China
are building up stocks for their production during the Olympics
period," said Macquarie Bank analyst Henry Liu. China imported 37.79 million tonnes of iron ore in June,
down 2.9 percent from 38.91 million tonnes in May, the customs
administration said on Thursday. China imported a record 42.85
million tonnes in April. The massive inflows helped to push inventories in China's
major iron ore ports to an all-time high of 80 million tonnes
in May, spurring Beijing to call on major steel mills to clear
out their holdings in port warehouses. Port stockpiles had eased to about 60 million tonnes as of
early this week, industry sources said. Strong demand from China's steelmakers also led to a near
doubling of iron ore prices in term contracts recently
concluded with Australian miners Rio Tinto (RIO.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)(RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and
BHP Billiton (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)(BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz). MINE CLOSURE China's northern province of Hebei, surrounding Beijing, is
home to one-fifth of the country's estimated 550 million tonnes
of steel production capacity, as well as hundreds of small and
medium-sized iron mines that supply nearly half of the nation's
domestically produced iron ore. Hebei province produced more than 300 million tonnes of
iron ore in 2007. Many steel mills are likely to start consuming imported ore
in large volumes in August, they said, as steelmakers usually
keep raw material reserves for 30 to 45 days of production. Industry sources added that bureaucratic delays may hamper
the reopening of closed mines in northern China after the
Olympic Games end on Aug. 24. "I am afraid that my mine will not be able to reopen soon
after the Olympics, as controls on transportation and
production are expected to continue for a while until orders
from the central government reach the localities," said the
owner of an iron mine in Hebei with annual production capacity
of 30,000 tonnes. China's steel product exports retreated unexpectedly in
June to 5.22 million tonnes from May's 10-month peak of 5.56
million tonnes, due to worries over trade conflicts and
possible export tax hikes. (For details please click
[ID:nSHA310657]) Below is a table of the Chinese iron and steel sector's
imports and exports in June and the first six months of 2008. June Jan-June mln tonnes pct chg* mln tonnes pct chg*
Exports:
Steel products 5.22 - 26.94 -20.2
Steel billet 0.02 - 0.13 -97.0
Coke 1.50 - 7.44 -7.5
Imports:
Steel products 1.26 - 8.28 -4.1
Steel billet 0.02 - 0.10 -28.5
Iron ore 37.79 - 230.04 22.5
* percentage change year-on-year
- not available
Source: China Customs Administration data
(Additional reporting by Niu Shuping; Editing by Edmund
Klamann)
Citigroup has raised its coal price forecasts across the board, citing the perfect storm of four months ago, along with persisting global supply deficits of coking, met and thermal coal.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Tuesday , 08 Jul 2008
RENO, NV -
Although coking and thermal coal prices soared by 200% to 300% this year in response to a perfect storm of short-term events including Queensland, Australia, floods, coal export bans in China, and the South African energy crisis, Citigroup forecast Monday that coal prices will remain robust.
While the perfect storm has abated, Citigroup mining analysts Alan Heap and Alex Tonks, both based in Australia, suggest that "limited potential for new supply means the coking coal market is expected to remain tight for many years."
Coking coal spot prices are around US$385.t, up $85 since January and above contract prices since 2000. Xstrata is believed to have recently settled at US$360/t for JFY 2008-2009, according to Citigroup.
Heap and Tonks assert that the supply-demand outlook points to persisting supply deficits of coking coal. "Further, it is difficult to identify additional supply sources which will meet the shortfall, even in response to higher prices," they said." The most likely response will be reduced steel production as mills run short of coal. Indian steel producers are the most vulnerable."
"Under these circumstances a severe pullback in prices, even from stratospheric levels, is most unlikely," they declared.
While the U.S. is the marginal supplier to seaborne met coal markets with exports rising sharply, Citigroup suggests that mining and infrastructure will limit export volumes. Nevertheless, the analysts added, "costs are high but margins are attractive."
In spite of a 200% increase in coking coal costs and an 80% interest in iron ore costs, Citigroup said steel producers have maintained their margins through price increases. For instance, steel production costs have risen by about $280/t to accommodate increased coal prices. Iron ore increases are adding a further $90/t, according to Citigroup.
Chinese hot-rolled coils (HRC) steel prices have increased US$460/t, while U.S, HRC prices have increased $600/t. "We expect further increase in steel prices," the analysts advised.
"To defray such cost inflation builders may substitute steel with concrete," they suggested, noting that concentrate prices have increased 120% over the past six years. "However it seems unlikely that the impact of steel prices on total construction costs is sufficient to curtail overall construction and economic activity."
The analysts also suggested that substitutions for coking coal in steelmaking have limited potential.
THERMAL COAL
Citigroup asserted that the perfect storm moved thermal coal prices sharply higher, and have accelerated higher in recent weeks. "The recent pullback is perhaps indicative of increased speculative activity in the market," they added.
Nevertheless, Heap and Tonks noted that China's power supplies remain acutely tight, which normally would cause domestic coal prices to increase "to stimulate further production and imports." However, coal prices have been capped while export volumes are limited by quotas, "which could return to a full ban."
"Reduced imports will only further squeeze Chinese coal and power markets," they asserted.
Meanwhile, Australian thermal coal exports remain impeded although "substantial mine, port and rail expansions have been committed," the analysts said. "But recent delays to expansions support our view of little growth in exports until 2010"
Citigroup noted that Eskom's power rationing has impacted some thermal coal production in South Africa., which may also hamper South African coal export growth. "Exports are down 20%yoy and 25% below capacity."
U.S. coal exports remain a risk to the market although a 40% growth in hard coking coal and 60% growth in thermal coal exports during the first quarter have not derailed the market, according to Citigroup.
Indonesia, the world's largest exporters of thermal coal, supplying 41% of the seaborne market, is critical to the thermal coal market, Citigroup asserted. While the Indonesian government is pushing for additional coal-fired power capacity, the analysts advised that domestic coal demand "will fall short of projections."
While Indonesian coal resources are very large, Citigroup noted that only 14% have a calorific value of more than 6100kcal. Therefore, export markets outside of China and India "will be constrained by the ability of power stations to accept an increased proportion of low cal coal in the blend," according to the analysts.
PEABODY, ARCH FORECASTS UPGRADED
Citigroup's San Francisco-based mining analysts John H. Hill and Paul Cheng said they expect met coal prices to increase through 2009. "However, this view seems discounted in aggressive consensus margins, particularly given the small size and checkered execution history of key miners."
Nevertheless, the analysts noted that "given burgeoning BRIC-country coal demand, signals that thermal may be tightening in a similar manner to met, and increasingly linked commodity markets, it is difficult to see global surplus emerging in the near/medium term. We believe both thermal and met are likely to track higher through 2009."
"We are hiking forecasts across major U.S. [coal] basins to levels in-line with survey data, with Met benchmarked to seaborne. The PRB [Power River Basin coal] is the only areas where forecasts are materially above market," the analysts said.
As a result, Hill and Cheng upgraded Peabody Energy and Arch Coal to a "Buy" recommendation.
WASHINGTON, July 10 (Reuters) - China is ramping up financing for power and transport projects in Africa, with the majority in four countries endowed with natural resources, according to a report by the World Bank on Thursday.
The report, which looks at the growing role of the Chinese government as a financier of infrastructure projects in Africa, estimates China's funding for roads, railways and power projects peaked at $7 billion in 2006 from just $1 billion a year between 2001-03.
The bulk of those commitments were to Nigeria, Angola, Sudan and Ethiopia and is welcome in a region where only one in four Africans have electricity, and travel along major export routes takes two to three times longer than in Asia.
But the World Bank said China was not the only emerging economic power financing infrastructure projects in Africa. India's Ex-Im Bank and Arab development funds are doing the same although China is by far the largest, it said.
In the power sector, China's investments have been in large hydropower schemes, and at the end of 2007 it was contributing $3.3 billion to 10 major hydropower projects amounting to some 6,000 megawatts of installed capacity.
When completed, these projects will raise total available hydropower generation capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa by around 30 percent, the Bank said.
Meanwhile, China's financing agreements to develop rail links, mainly in Nigeria, Gabon and Mauritania, totaled about $4 billion in 2007. This includes rehabilitation of more than 1,350 km of existing railway lines and construction of more than 1,600 km of new railroad. Africa's entire rail network is about 50,000 km.
Obiageli Ezekwesili, World Bank Vice President for Africa, said China's investments are helping fill $22 billion a year in financing needs for roads, railways and power across Africa. Continued...
She estimated that Africa's deficient infrastructure was costing the region as much as one percentage point a year of gross domestic product growth per capita.
"All of this signals an important and growing trend of south-south involvement in Africa that should create new opportunities," she told reporters, citing China's success at creating one of the the world's largest construction sectors.
TRADING FOR OIL
Yet, some say China's interest in building roads and power projects in Africa stems mostly from its desire to exploit the continent's vast oil, timber and mineral wealth to feed its booming economy.
Beijing has been criticized for turning a blind eye to human rights abuses and corruption in countries it invests in, such as Sudan and Zimbabwe.
China's imports of natural resources from Africa hit $22 billion in 2006, with oil alone accounting for 80 percent of the trade. As a result, China now depends on Africa for around 30 percent of its oil imports, 80 percent of its cobalt imports and 40 percent of its manganese imports.
Overall, Angola is by far China's largest trading partner followed by Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, South Africa and Sudan.
The World Bank noted that China's $10 billion investments in Africa's oil sector are, however, barely a tenth of the $168 billion invested by other international oil companies.
World Bank economist Vivien Foster said China's interest in Africa came at a time when investment in infrastructure was at a low point, with traditional Western donors focused on combating diseases, such as HIV/AIDS and malaria. Continued...
Foster, the bank's lead economist in the Sustainable Development Department of the Africa region, said 10 percent of the total $16 billion committed by China to infrastructure projects in Africa has so far been completed and delivered. A further 25 percent is still under construction and remaining 65 percent were for projects that were already signed.
Foster said more than half of the projects -- about 35 in all -- relate to small financial contributions of less than $50 million while a handful of others are for more than $1 billion.
"This highlights a novel feature of the Chinese financing, which is the ability to raise very large sums of money for specific infrastructure projects," Foster added. (Reporting by Lesley Wroughton; editing by Gary Crosse)
Da, very rubusty but rusty and poor quality.
Here picture from newest model.
http://www.peachmountain.com/5Star/US_Army_Ordnance_Museum_T34_tank.aspx
MOSCOW, July 9 (Reuters) - Russia will overtake Germany to become Europe's largest auto market later this year, three years earlier than forecast, PricewaterhouseCoopers said on Wednesday in a report based on first-half sales and projections.
"Russia is coming from a long way behind and is moving very quickly, as it has for several years, and it continues to accelerate," the report's author, Stanley Root, told Reuters.
"I'm not saying the dollar value is greater than the German market, but it will be the undisputed leader in unit terms by the end of the year," he said.
Last year, PwC forecast Russia would become Europe's biggest car market in 2011, while warning that a potential bad loan crisis in the banking sector and lack of investment in roads and parking space could still hamper Russian car market growth.
"If the current market trend continues through the second half of the year, car sales in Russia will exceed sales in Germany and may reach 3.6-3.8 million," PwC said in the report.
In the first half of 2008, car sales in Russia totalled 1.645 million units, a rise of 41 percent from the same period of 2007, while sales in Germany were 1.63 million cars.
In money terms, sales in Russia soared 64 percent to $33.8 billion from $20.6 billion a year ago. PwC said the average price kept rising partly due to a growing share of relatively expensive new imported cars.
With oil and gas export revenues feeding Russia's economy and boosting disposable incomes, consumer demand has shifted towards more expensive foreign brands from the Ladas produced by the country's largest car maker, AvtoVAZ (AVAZ.MM: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).
The car market continues to grow in tandem with the country's strong economic performance, a contrast to the bleak outlook in many western countries, said the author. Continued...
"We're not seeing the kind of tightening of consumer credit that's occurring elsewhere," said Moscow-based Root.
"We don't see signs of any imminent shockwaves reaching Russian shores.
The report showed that new imported car sales rose 54 percent to 785,000 units in the first six months, while sales of foreign brands produced in Russia were up 41 percent at 290,000.
Sales of Russian vehicles such as the Lada rose only 27 percent, to 380,000. Sales of used imported cars also rose by 27 percent to 190,000 units.
Root said that while the German figures do not include imports of second-hand cars, it was not a significant factor distorting the overall picture, as Germany is such a large manufacturer and exporter. (Writing by Maria Kiselyova and Conor Sweeney; Editing by Quentin Bryar and David Cowell)
Forget Your Fears: 'Everything Is Cheap,' James Altucher Says
Posted Jul 10, 2008 12:48pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Biotech
Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, FRE, LEH, QQQQ, SPY, FNM
The market lurched forward Thursday as the Dow Chemical-Rohm Haas deal overshadowed, for the moment, ongoing concerns about the soundness of the financial system.
Even as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson testify about the need for new regulation while Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tumbling again, James Altucher, managing partner of Formula Capital, says "fear of the unknown" is obscuring opportunity for investors.
On an enterprise value/cash flow basis, almost "everything is cheap," Altucher says, recommending investors buy index ETFs to get exposure to a market the author, columnist and investor believes is "dirt cheap."
pippen synes markedet boomer idag så hun er i godt humør
den kinesiske cementmaskinefabrik påstår at de er verdens største indenfor den branche
men lille pip er lidt bekymret for at de mange nedslidte biler i kina vil kunne få væksten til at falde i usa
men hun er nu også særlig intelligent på en måde som kun kvinder kan være det
de er det vi andre vil kalde bagkloge
pippen mener ellers at ca 60% af bilerne i kina er mindre end 4 år gamle
men med den forurening de har ruster de nok også hurtigere
gumsen mener slet ikke man kan ruste, hvis bare gumsen er stor nok
og gammel kærlighed ruster aldrig
Den er vel fin. FLS er vist stort set slet ikke på det kinesiske markede.
Fandt artiklen du har kigget i. Det er en meget fin side.
Research: Bernanke partly to blame for stocks rout
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService4/idUSDIS04631720080710
Foreign car sales in Russia up 44 pct in June
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL1032973020080710?rpc=44
Mattson Technology lowers 2Q outlook; shares fall
Tuesday July 8, 5:44 pm ET
Mattson Technology lowers 2nd-quarter outlook on chip market weakness; shares fall
FREMONT, Calif. (AP) -- Semiconductor manufacturing equipment maker Mattson Technology Inc. lowered its second-quarter guidance Tuesday, saying ongoing weakness in the semiconductor market led to lower shipments to some major memory customers.
ADVERTISEMENT
Mattson projected an adjusted loss of 24 cents to 26 cents per share in the quarter, compared with a previous prediction for a loss of 10 cents to 17 cents per share.
The company said that including items it expects a loss of 13 cents to 15 cents per share.
Mattson also lowered its expectations for second-quarter revenue estimate to $35 million excluding royalty income. That compares with a prior expectation of $40 million to $42 million.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect a loss of 11 cents per share on $42.5 million in revenue. Analyst estimates generally exclude special items.
The company said none of its revenue shortfall was due to competitive losses.
Mattson also said it expects to report gross margins of 34 percent, compared with previous guidance for 39 percent to 41 percent.
Mattson shares rose 8 cents to close at $4.92, but in after-hours electronic trading they lost 47 cents, or 9.6 percent, to $4.45. The stock has ranged from $4.54 to $11.76 over the past year
fannie mae og freddy mac er snart kun skyggen af sig selv
hvordan mon det ender
de er nok rustet op for 10 år siden
jeg tør ikke købe i dem
så hellere en kinesisk taxi der er 15 år gammel
Velegnet i Jordan (de bruger 2-3 gange så meget vand som de kan på sigt...det samme for mange andre områder i mellemøsten..afrika...Det ville sikkert også være fornuftigt i områder der får for meget vand...for så skylles afgrøderne væk eller de rådner i vandet.
Produktionen pr. m2 er 20 gange større end dyrkning på alm. marker og der bruges kun 5% af vandmængden. - og så er der det med fidusen med alger. Noget man skal kunne forestille sig - bruge ens fantasi. Det kan man ikke med hovedet oppe i røven.
Jeg har købt lidt i den her sammen med global green. Det er samme holdning som wagon. Enten kommer det 100 foldigt tilbage eller også er det sået på klippegrund - hvad det nok er.
Valcent's Releases Profitable Initial Production Estimates for its Vertical Vegetable Growing Systems
Thursday March 13, 2:03 pm ET
EL PASO, TEXAS--(MARKET WIRE)--Mar 13, 2008 -- Valcent Products Inc. (OTC BB:VCTPF.OB - News) -
Data from its fully operational field test plant has confirmed commercial production potential with several companies expressing interest to build out commercial plants on a joint venture basis. A commercial module of one-eighth acre (5,445 square feet) is estimated to have capital costs of $565,000; using a wholesale price for leafy lettuce of $1.10 per head, may have gross annual revenues in excess of $1,300,000 with earnings before tax of approximately $505,000 supporting management's estimated 89% internal rate of return over 10 years.
Valcent's High Density Vertical Vegetable Growing System (VGS) has now been operating over the last six months and has produced leafy lettuce, micro greens, spinach, herbs, mints, beets, strawberries, wheat grass, alfalfa and other grains. During this period, the system has proven production capabilities on average, of approximately 20 times the amount of vegetables per acre grown in a field while requiring only 5% of the water used for field crops. The VGS system will be sold in one-eighth acre modules that contain 1,320 grow panels and the production modules may be scaled, depending on the growers' output and crop diversity requirements.
VGS will be a continuous production system. Plants can be simultaneously harvested and planted with no interruption to the process. Recent development of the vertical panels and packaging will make it possible to deliver live produce to the consumer, ensuring the highest quality of nutrition and taste. For example lettuce that is picked in a field loses 50% of its nutritional value within 24 hours, yet delivery from a distant field may take a week to reach the consumer, with even a larger nutritional loss.
The system is fully automated by computer monitoring and operating systems which control the rate of movement of the vertical growing panels, water pumps, sterilization, and the deployment of nutrients, the ambient temperature, and ph levels. The system also uses no herbicides or pesticides. The VGS system does not require arable land and can be sited in urban, suburban or even desert areas, thus providing fresh, highly nutritious vegetables to large markets with virtually no transportation costs eliminating transportation fuel expense and related pollution.
Glen Kertz, Valcent's President and CEO commented, "The world today requires high density, renewable, highly nutritional crop technologies that do not require high volumes of water that can be deployed on non-arable land for localized consumption at a reasonable cost to the consumer, as well as reduce the negative impact of transportation in food production and distribution."
Valcent owns 100% of the High Density Vertical Growth System subject to royalties of 4.5%.
Algae Vertical Bioreactor
The research and development team of Valcent Products Inc. has now completed twelve months of the algae vertical bioreactor development program. During a 90-day continual production test, algae was being harvested at an average of one gram (dry weight) per liter. This equates to algae bio mass production of 276 tons of algae per acre per year. Achieving the same biomass production rate with an algal species having 50% lipids (oil) content would therefore deliver approximately 33,000 gallons of algae oil per acre per year.
The primary focus of the 90-day continuous production test was determining the robustness of the field test bed. Other secondary tests were also conducted including using different ph levels, CO2 levels, fluid temperatures, nutrients, types of algae, and planned system failures. It is important to note that the system has not been optimized for production yields or the best selection of algae species.
The next phase of development will include increasing the number of bio reactor units from 30 to 100 and then continuing a number of production tests that may further increase production as well as initiating various extractions and harvesting tests. Final engineering is being completed at this time with construction of the 100 panel Bioreactor to begin soon. Subsequently, a one acre pilot plant will also be built.
The algae vertical bioreactor technology is being developed jointly with Global Green Solutions Inc whereby both Companies own a 50% interest which is subject to a 4.5% royalty.
Both the High Density Vertical Vegetable growing technology and the Algae Vertical Bioreactor technology have been featured in news stories on MSNBC, CNN, FOX News, and ABC news as well as numerous print and internet articles.
About Valcent Products, Inc:
Valcent Products Inc. (OTC BB:VCTPF.OB - News) develops highly innovative consumer and industrial products and processes for global markets. Valcent is a pioneer and leader in ecotechnology with its core R&D focus on sustainable, renewable, and intense growth of agricultural products. Valcent also owns 50% of the Vertigro Joint Venture, which has developed algae production technology initially intended for an oil bio fuel feed stock All Valcent products and processes have patents or patents pending on integral technologies. For more information, visit: www.valcent.net.
This press release contains forward-looking information as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"). This material contained in this press release that addresses activities, events or developments that Valcent Products Inc. believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements by definition involve risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Valcent to be materially different from the statements made herein. Among others, these risks include but are not limited to the following: (i) limited liquidity and capital resources; (ii) serious business competition, (iii) fluctuations in operating results may result in unexpected reductions in revenue and stock price volatility; (iv) delays in product releases and introductions may result in unexpected reductions in revenue and stock price volatility, and (v) errors or defects in products or projected earnings or profitability or cost assumptions relating to the High Density Vertical Growing technology or its Algae Vertical Bioreactor technology may cause a loss of market acceptance, and result in fewer or no sales or these technologies may not prove commercially viable. Furthermore, Valcent does not intend (and is not obligated) to update publicly any forward-looking statements. The contents of this press release should be considered in conjunction with the warnings and cautionary statements contained in Valcent's recent filings with the SEC.
CUSIP: 918881103
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/24/2284759.htm
http://seekingalpha.com/article/82450-china-steelmaker-agrees-to-biggest-ever-iron-ore-price-increase
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10518060&ref=rss
hotellerne har det stadig fint udenfor usa
"While our hotels outside the United States continue to benefit from solid global demand, business conditions have deteriorated in the United States," Chief Executive J.W. Marriott said in a statement.
Jeg tager det altså lige roligt i nogle dage.
Vil købe ny cykel idag, med Dura Ace gear produceret i Kina og kulfiberrammen lavet i Shanghai. Bestiller den over nettet, så kommer den med brevdue.
Jeg kan heldigvis lægge mange flere i min spamliste eftersom jeg har abo.
Skråt op i lillehammer.
Solar Wafer Prices On the Rise Again?
by: Trade Radar Operator posted on: July 10, 2008 | about stocks: LDK / YGE Font Size: PrintEmail When considering solar stocks, the conversation always turns to the cost of silicon and solar wafers, the raw materials that go into solar cells and photovoltaic solar panels.
For some time now, the industry has suffered a shortage in silicon. This has driven up prices and led to PV panel manufacturers implementing long-term contracts to assure adequate supply in the future.
Many have thought that with new silicon suppliers coming online the shortage would soon ease and prices would begin to come down.
An article today in Digitimes suggests that the price optimists are a little ahead of themselves. To quote the article:
"Solar silicon wafer suppliers Sino-American Silicon Products and Green Energy Technology are considering raising their contract manufacturing quotes soon because of rising production costs..."
What is driving the rise in prices? The increased prices "reflect the rising costs of materials - such as steel wire -and electricity which has been driven up by the hikes in oil prices."
The article goes on to say that prices will increase 5%-10% and further suggests that the silicon shortage is still with us.
This might be a time to reevaluate LDK Solar (LDK). As many solar investors know, LDK has been building a polysilicon plant. It is intended to provide an in-house source of wafers as well as a revenue stream based on selling directly to solar end-product manufacturers. There has been spirited debate as to whether this strategy made sense given the significant investment required to bring the plant online and the risk that silicon prices might crash just as the plant began to ramp up production.
In a recent statement released on July 2, LDK Chairman Xiaofeng Peng said the company expected to produce between 100 and 350 tons of polysilicon this year.
So it looks like silicon prices will remain stable and may even move somewhat higher this year. LDK's gamble on building a polysilicon wafer capability seems to be on the verge of paying off. Investors should be able to expect an increase in revenue and fatter margins as the plant begins to produce meaningful quantities of silicon. As for increased costs, LDK Solar has secured a subsidized capped electric rate from the local government for wafer production and polysilicon production.
Analyst consensus is that LDK earnings will be flat for the next couple of quarters at $0.42, slightly less than the previous two quarters. Given a favorable pricing environment and the new plant coming on line, LDK could surprise to the upside. With the stock now down to $32.38, LDK is worth a look.
humle - en cement fabrik producent i kina, hvad mener du om den, er den bedre end FLS?, men den er da faldet tilstrækkeligt til at den må være et bedre køb, men det er nok kvaliteten det er galt med
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=1893.HK
bilsalget i indien stiger stadig og især stiger lastbilerne en del og også motorcyklerne, så selvom stigningstakten er faldene, er det stadigvæk en stigning og bilparken stiger med ca 2 mio uanset hvordan bilsalget udvikler sig
NEW DELHI, July 10 - Car sales in India rose an annual 6.1 percent in June, the slowest monthly expansion so far this fiscal year as rising costs forced car makers to cut down on discounts and other incentives.
ADVERTISEMENT
Firms sold 99,738 passenger cars in June, with sales growth sharply slower than the 14.3 percent seen in May and 17.2 percent in April, data released on Thursday by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers showed.
It was also well below the 16.4 percent expansion seen in June 2007. Car sales in the April-June period have risen 12.4 percent, flat with the 12.7 percent growth in the year-ago period.
Car makers have offered discounts to boost demand in a competitive market, but rising costs of raw materials like steel have squeezed margins.
"People were trying to boost sales by discounts," Sugato Sen, senior director at SIAM, said. "Margins are under pressure , so discounts and other incentives are drying up."
Demand has also been dented by double-digit inflation in the country, rising interest rates and higher fuel prices, Sen said.
Inflation is at a 13-year high, and the central bank has raised its key lending rate to the highest in more than six years in response, bumping up rates on automobile loans.
State-set fuel prices were hiked by about 10 percent in June after global crude oil prices surged to record highs.
Sen forecast sales would remain flat in the next few months and said some firms could cut down on production.
Sales of commercial vehicles rose 13.5 percent to 40,324 units in June, chiefly on large bus orders from state-run transport firms, Sen said.
Motorcycle sales rose 8.3 percent to 473,899 units in the month. Bike sales have revived this year, following a 11.9 percent fall in the year to March 2008, and analysts expect them to be more attractive to customers as they have lower operating costs than other vehicles.
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sol i asien
Emergence of Asian solar cell makers backed with government support:
Japanese manufacturers were the first to enter the solar cell production field in Asia,
but new entrants have pushed their share of the market down to about 22% as of
2007. In particular, Asian companies have sprung up in the field with the support of
their governments. A common trend among those Asian companies is their rapid
emergence in a relatively short period of time, made possible by taking advantage of
solar cell production equipment and expertise from equipment makers in European
and other countries.
• Taiwanese LCD and semiconductor makers also entering the solar cell market:
In Taiwan, the government has been fostering its solar cell industry into a
manufacturing center, and by the end of 2008 we expect it to achieve world-class
production capacity at levels rivaling those of China and Japan. Eyeing expansion in
the market, some leading Taiwanese LCD and semiconductor makers have entered
the solar cell field to latch onto growth potential. Overseas companies often supply
the production equipment, while shortages of silicon materials have gradually formed
a bottleneck. Those Taiwanese companies have thus started to strengthen
development with the eventual aim of domestically procuring thin-film solar cells.
• Leading companies in mainland China also growing rapidly: The solar cell
industry has been expanding sharply in China, and it had the largest production
capacity in the world as of end-2007. Under the 11th Five-Year Plan, plans call for
increasing the amount of power generated by solar cell systems in China to
300,000KW by 2010, but the industry seems more geared to exporting solar cells at
this time. Suntech Power Holdings [STP US] (No rating; $37.46, 30 June close) is a
leading mainland Chinese company listed in the US that ranks third in the world,
shipping about 10% of all solar cells shipped in 2007. In summer 2006, Suntech
Power acquired MSK, a major solar cell module maker in Japan, which started
assembly and production of solar cells in Japan in 2008.
• Singapore aims to be a clean energy hub: Singapore aims to become a global
hub for clean energy, and aims to nurture its clean energy industry into a S$1.7bn
market by 2015. The solar cell industry there has begun to emerge, with leading
European companies announcing their intentions to operate in Singapore.
• We see growing business opportunities in Asia for Japanese, US, and
European solar cell production equipment makers: Solar cell production
equipment makers have begun to expand their business capabilities in Asia, where
the industry shows signs of taking off with government and regional support. We
think business opportunities are growing in particular for Ulvac [6728] (Strong buy;
¥3,720), which offers turnkey solutions and has been winning orders for thin-film
solar cell production equipment from leading companies in Taiwan and mainland
China. Meanwhile, Japanese module equipment maker NPC [6255] (No rating;
¥6,120) plans to establish a foothold in Singapore in line with its strategy of pushing
into other markets in the Middle East, India, and China.
Nomura Securities Co Ltd, Tokyo
Asia & Emerging Markets Research
Date
2 July 2008
Japanese full report & English summary: 1 Jul
Report no. A08-168
Investment Strategy
Y. Iwata
+81-3-5255-1649
y-iwata@frc.nomura.co.jp
Financial & Economic Research Center
Nomura Securities, Tokyo
N omura 9 2 July 2008
May
SINGAPORE -- A worsening coal shortage means that China faces the prospect this summer of the most extensive power cuts it has seen in four years.
Despite encouragement to keep the current flowing, with new approval to raise electricity prices, power generators are struggling to find enough fuel, in part due to China's clampdown on illegal coal mines. This, coupled with robust demand for electricity, explains why the National Development and Reform Commission recently said the power shortfall this summer could be as high as 10 gigawatts, with 60% of the disparity in Guangdong province, a manufacturing hub.
But analysts say the shortfall may well be larger than the government economic-planning agency's forecast. Cuts are already causing major problems, and the situation may well get worse, not least due to inadequate connections, which hinder regions with surpluses from filling gaps elsewhere. Electricity rationing has been imposed in several provinces, and many power plants are struggling with shrinking coal stocks.
On July 6, inventories at 541 coal-fired power plants connected to the state grid averaged 34.64 million metric tons -- the equivalent of 11 to 12 days of stock, below the normal level of 15 days -- according to domestic media reports. Stocks at 64 plants were below three days' supply, while an additional 181 had stocks of less than seven days.
On Tuesday, shares in Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., China's largest alumina producer by output, slumped in Hong Kong after the company said two of its smelters in Shanxi province were forced to cut production because of a power shortage.
The Chinese government has been stepping up efforts to close down illegal mines since 2005. Output from small coal mines, which account for nearly one-third of China's total production, is now stagnant at best, and large state-owned mines haven't bridged the gap, said Wang Shuai, an analyst with Shanghai-based Orient Securities. At the same time, demand has been growing robustly in the past year, with a slew of new coal-fired electricity capacity coming online. Yang Tao, an analyst with KGI Securities, estimates that the coal shortage is likely to reach 10 million to 20 million tons this year. Though that volume is a fraction of China's total coal output -- around 2.5 billion tons in 2007 -- it is still significant, because more than 80% of China's electricity is produced by coal-fired power plants.
Inflation Slows in Singapore's Residential Market
Softening Demand
Forces Developers
Toward Lower Prices
By PATRICIA KOWSMANN
July 10, 2008; Page B5
SINGAPORE -- The sharp inflation slowdown in Singapore's private residential market is the latest sign that times are getting tougher for local developers.
Prices increased 0.4% in the second quarter from the first, the smallest rise since mid-2004, according to recent government statistics. The figures were based on the first 10 weeks of the quarter, and some analysts said final numbers could show a decline in prices, which are likely to fall further in coming periods.
With buyers' sentiment expected to be weak for the rest of the year due to a poor global economic outlook, developers who have delayed new projects have no option other than to lower prices, analysts said. "Developers just have to come to terms with more realistic pricing. Moving inventories is more important than getting a good margin right now, so these companies need to lower their [price] expectations," said CLSA analyst Yew Kiang Wong.
Prices on sales of uncompleted projects are down 8% on average since the beginning of the year, according to Nomura.
"We are already seeing some developers lowering prices," Mr. Yew said. "At the end of last year, it was expected that City Developments would launch Shelford Suites, a new development, this year for an average sale price of 2,000 Singapore dollars [US$1,465] a square foot. They ended up launching it at about S$1,600." City Developments Ltd. General Manager Chia Ngiang Hong said the average price for Shelford Suites was "in line with our expectations."
Keppel Land Ltd.'s chief executive for the Singapore residential business, Augustine Tan, said the company isn't under pressure to lower prices. "The market is going through a consolidation phase, which happens in every upswing phase of a property cycle," Mr. Tan said. "Keppel Land is optimistic that the market will continue to grow thereafter."
CapitaLand Ltd. in May reiterated its target of offering 800 to 1,000 units this year. Chief Executive Liew Mun Leong recently said the company expects prices of mid- to low-tier homes will remain stable this year.
Private-home prices rose 31% last year, fueled by Singapore's ambition to become a business and entertainment hub in Asia. Singapore turned into a virtual construction site, and many projects were sold out within hours of being offered.
Signs of a slowdown started to show in the fourth quarter as the fallout from the U.S. credit crunch spread.
Mr. Yew said he expects a 10% to 20% price decline in the midtier and high-end residential segments this year. Property prices in the mass market, however, should rise 5% since the sector has lagged behind the rest of the market, he said.
About 85% of Singaporeans live in public housing built by the government's Housing and Development Board. Private developers compete to provide housing for the remaining 15% of Singapore nationals, along with a sizable foreign population.
Some analysts said the current slowdown is likely temporary and will turn bullish once investors sense that falling property prices are attractive.
"I just can't see property prices tanking -- not when you have interest rates so low and inflation so high, and you can go out to the market and rent out your place for this kind of rental yield," said Joseph Tan, senior strategist at Fortis Bank in Singapore. Even though the rental market has seen price pressure, rates have gone up rapidly in the past two years because of increasing demand from foreigners.
Things could change as the rising cost of living makes Singapore less attractive for expatriates. In addition, new apartments are expected to flood the rental market in the next two years.
Insurers of Mortgages Downgraded
A WSJ NEWS ROUNDUP
July 10, 2008
Moody's Investors Service downgraded the insurance financial-strength ratings of the mortgage-insurance operations of two companies.
It downgraded to A3 from Aa2 the ratings of PMI Group's U.S. mortgage-insurance subsidiaries, including PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. and PMI Insurance Co. It also downgraded to A3 from Aa3 the ratings of PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. Ltd., and PMI Guaranty Co., a provider of credit enhancement products.
Moody's also downgraded the insurance financial-strength rating of American International Group Inc.'s mortgage-insurance operating companies, citing their weakened credit profile resulting from high mortgage defaults and uncertainty about ultimate losses.
The ratings company cut by one notch to Aa3 its ratings on AIG's United Guaranty Residential Insurance Co. and a subsidiary, noting their risks are mitigated in part by limited exposure to higher risk mortgage products and "robust capital adequacy."
The companies also benefit from a net worth maintenance agreement provided by AIG and a reinsurance agreement from one of AIG's operating entities, but the performance of their insured portfolio has deteriorated, Moody's noted.
Moody's also downgraded by two notches to A1 the ratings of the group's second-lien insurance company, United Guaranty Residential Insurance Co. of North Carolina, and its student-loan insurance company, reflecting uncertainty about the future prospects for the businesses after AIG completes a previously announced review of all its operations.
Moody's also warned losses within the second-lien and student-loan sectors could "meaningfully surpass standalone claims paying resources" and fundamentals in these segments are unlikely to improve in the near term.
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