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Mary - we are on the hunt for you again! I hope we aren't intruding on your life~! :)
When you disappear we all get a little concerned. Guess we all just LUV our Mary!
I have Matt emailing you. We miss ya! Come back to us!
Hope all is well!
Jen
I haven't. Why don't you shoot her off an email and see how she is doing?
Has anyone tried this email?
MaryKateAustin42@Hotmail.com
Last time she was missing, she was sick. I believe Mary had pneumonia, and for quite sometime.
We can ask IHUB to check on her - unless someone has her email or phone number?
I have been watching here as I have dealt with MKA for years.
I hope all is well also.
Jog my memory, but wasn't she sick like a year ago?
Thanks. I hope she is well too.
Been six weeks since she posted the last time.
Do not have personal info of here, so just hope all is well.
Hey Mary Kate can you gives us an updated WDRP chart. It's turning positive.
Sure, allways, just mention the source
Hey read- can I steal that for the TRID board?
GM, MKA. Could you do a chart for WNRC? Many thanks and hope you are doing well.
Rhino
EMKR bounced of 50dma bullish
Ironically the same year the Maya calendar ends is when we make or break this trend.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maya_calendar
MKA can you do a BAC please?
That seems pretty consistent with the market murmurs... that this is an economic environment that could be good for some nimble small caps with good ideas, and not so much good for industrial behemoths. I haven't seen much consideration of that in a LONG time, not even a remark, much less in depth discussion... in terms of the market cycles and how they tend to interact with corporate life cycles...
Usually, you would think there WILL be a dying off of mature industries over time... with a process in which new comers in new industries are continually replacing them... with some obvious rotation among industries in the averages, as new industries result from innovation ?
Where is the innovation ? Which of the dinosaurs are heading for the trash heap ?
I think the dying industrial dinosaurs have been put on government funded health care... to live beyond their years, continuing to take up vastly more space than they should, while trampling all over the future that should be now...
IMO, we need to put some dinosaurs down... take them off life support, to enable survival of something other than fewer and fewer, larger and larger dinosaurs.
I wasn't very convinced by the chatter re the Hindenburg Omen... until I heard Jim Cramer dissing it tonight. Now, I think you might need to take it a bit more seriously...
But, then, while the Hindenburg disaster did cause a HUGE shock at the time... "Oh, the humanity", caught on film... it didn't exactly do much we'd think relevant, now, to undermine the evolution of aerospace industries ? Without it, though, maybe we'd be blimping all over the place, still... thrilling to the aerobatic maneuvers of the Blue Blimps and the Thunder Blimps aerial demonstration teams flying their Army and Navy fighter blimps ???
Let the market work !!!
I Don't believe in #13 being an ominous omen, but the Hindenburg sign is shown on the $INDU Chart, with the top Head and shoulder pattern, Especially with the last three pull backs having lower lows.... see the 28 year Monthly chart posted eairlier, and $SPX Monthly posted in the sticky notes.... also check out the long term Monthly Charts for $COMPQ and $RUT, these two do not have lower lows with the pull backs like $INDU and $SPX.
Below is a different view of the $RUT and $COMPQ charts.
Or this ?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38710593/ns/world_news-weird_news
At least there wasn't a hydrogen filled dirigible at the site...
Is it possible to generate a chart for this ?
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10835851/1/hindenburg-omen-is-a-stock-market-crash-imminent.html
MaryKateAustin, Could you please do a chart (weekly and/or daily) for LLEG? Thank you!
Looking at it again...
I'd guess it will take at least a year to a year and a half before it becomes at all likely that the shift in public awareness would begin to accelerate in a way to require the sorts of changes I've discussed here...
A wild card out there in the results of the next election, which could alter the trajectories in interesting ways... potentially accelerating recognition of problems... and thus recognition events.
It will be interesting to see if the Fed action this week does become something more... perhaps proving to be an inflection point in the shifting probabilities between risks of inflation vs deflation than the timing outlined above would suggest ?
If the time lines in the political evolution aren't in synch with the elements of timing in the real economy... meaning I'm wrong about the potential likelihood of Fed inaction leading to an acceleration into deflation, that then requires greater excess in the effort in countering it ? Still not clear to me how that "success" in prevention... this week... does more than kick the can down the road, waiting for the next source of crisis to bring new challenges. The debt problem will still be there, still growing, all the more given Obama's impositions on the future... and still with no exit in sight to the problem of the banks... the persistent lack of credit availability that is likely to persist for as long as the growth in government debt follows the trend it is on, but, more, the persistent lack of meaningful reform addressing the basic problems ?
That's it for my current post vacation "review" of where we are...
Wasn't that fun ?
Thanks. I'll use that chart as the base for more comment:
If you were to reconsider that chart as if it were the 12 month daily chart for a POS penny P&D operation... and you knew that from 1982 on it was running up that benefit showing as growth of the business, only as it was increasing the debt load faster and faster over time ?
And, if you were aware that in 1994/1995, unable to sustain that pace of growth in the debt they'd been enabled in taking on, they suddenly came up with some new "scheme" for enabling access to additional funds to fuel the trend more, so that it basically meant they were conducting a fraud ? Then, beginning in 2003, when that too quit working and became unsustainable, they began using derivatives based on the creation of fraudulent debts to fuel another leg up ?
By mid 2008 that wasn't enough to keep their Ponzi afloat... so, when the market caught on in 2009, they came up with a new scheme to apply government guarantees to those fraudulent obligations ?
Still, even with that bandaid applied to backstop the prior fraud rather than clean it up, there wasn't any ability to con-tinue.
So, with that as the context... should you see the stock drop back to the blue line, that it was able to follow as long as they added to the debt at that fixed rate... even though that prior access to credit doesn't exist any more ?
Or, should you see the point of departure in 1994 as the origin in the deviation that will require the market to apply a correction ? In the typical NORMAL market function, you'd expect to see the correction adjust to the downside by an amount equal to the expression of the excess on the upside... So, if the blue line defines that metric from which deviation is properly computed, we've already made that correction. But, if that isn't the proper metric (given the sustained flow in growth of credit that existed to create that blue line doesn't exist now) then, maybe, the proper correction to expect would be one defined by the excursion in the excess above the 4000 level attained in 1994... Adjusting for real growth in the economy as well as the portion of price that is reflecting nothing but fraud and excess, that would probably require correcting back to the 4000 level... which is roughly the base of the left shoulder in the head and shoulders pattern we see being created in that time frame.
Or, should you see the point of departure in 1982, that is what enabled establishing the blue line, as itself being the point of origin in the policy departure which is being corrected now, with the acceleration in debt taken on from that point on all basically being wholly unsustainable in fact... ??? Then, I guess the proper correction would be... more significant.
Which is correct ? I don't think you can answer without knowing what the exit to be engineered from the EXCESS DEBT problem will look like...
Most assume that the resolution will occur within the context of the markets operating as expected in an controlled inflationary environment... when it has been a turn into DEFLATION risks that have dominated the reality since roughly 2001... and it is those risks which are exposed by the dual collapse in 2002 and 2009.
Prior "exits" were engineered by trying to paper over the problem, while making it worse... the CRA based debt acceleration paired with deterioration in loan quality begun in 1994, the derivatives based acceleration into blatant fraud in 2003... and, the biggest fraud of all, the "full faith and credit" being applied in back stopping the bank frauds in 2009, which transfers the consequences of the frauds from the banks that created them to the taxpayers... but, note, that latest "exit" is an exit only for the banks... it doesn't come paired with any new method of re-enabling any new and larger acceleration in the flow of money... ??? The merry go round stopped... and the banks handed the bag to taxpayers to be the bag holders. They are also obstructing any other possible exit... the point of my prior post.
To get out of this mess... you need to fix the problem with the corruption dominating the banks. The only changes we've seen instead operate to further institutionalize the problems... and, given that "the banks" = "the Fed", there likely isn't any exit that exists, without eliminating the Fed...
That, as my prior post addressed, means that the ONLY exit there is left, is either for them to use the printing presses... or for them to dither until the deflationary depression gathers enough momentum that it cannot be stopped.
But, the mantra we hear is about "unusual uncertainty" ? What that means is... they won't crank up the printing presses until after it is too late... so, we'll likely get both an accelerated entry into a "double dip" that might not have a bottom... and an accelerated response to that event, which will be necessary to be able to counter it...
Of course, change might happen in the next election... and for now, I think that potential is the only thing keeping hope alive.
Correction IS possible, but, real correction will require fixing what is broken, eliminating the banks preferred position, and altering the structure of their incentives, while re-enabling real competition, all of which is very unlikely to happen... particularly with the change likely to result in the next election. The requirement is to re-enable a high level of real market competition... in every sphere... which has long since been co-opted to control by corporate conglomerates in the U.S.
That is why the "fuel" applied since 1994 hasn't had the expected impact in fostering real growth and new competition... rather than merely accelerating aggregation while enabling market fraud.
There is also large risk that externally imposed "events" might occur, either of themselves (say, a final collapse of the Euro) or they might be expected to be initiated, in an attempt by competitors to create "recognition events" (say, use of Iranian nuclear weapons, or Iran sinking a carrier in the Gulf). The risks include a very high probability of coordination among opponents... China, Venezuela, North Korea, Iran and Syria... likely with some new September 11 event, and a high level introduction of cyberwarfare.
The sort of weakness that has been imposed on the U.S. by the purposeful errors of the banks, still unchecked by Congress, the Courts or the Executive... is a fairly natural prelude to the coming of WWIII... and war is often used as the most useful tool available as a distraction from what otherwise might become a proper fixing of blame in responsibility for creating other problems.
Given the chart patterns you see... what sort of timing would you expect might occur for the evolution in recognition events ? It isn't a hard question... just apply the skills as you would with a POS penny stock whose P&D is coming apart at the same time convertibles are being converted, and other debts are coming due... Correct for natural transitions tied to and enabled by the 2010 and 2012 election schedules, which will drive necessary changes in market focus... and then, be ready...
JMHO
28 year $INDU Chart:
And other Monthly longer term charts .. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=49002794
Try looking at a longer range chart... one that goes back to 1994 and before, taking note of the changed inflection in the slope from that point in time. That point back in 1994 is where the turbo kicked in on the CRA, with an artificial stimulus in the shift in the "rules" in mortgage markets... which enables you to connect the dots between fundamental changes in policies and the charting.
I think that means you need to consider two aspects of that chart. First, what it means to the economy now to no longer have the mortgage market functioning the way it was from 1994 until 2008 or 2009, when the Ponzi scheme behind the fraud imposed in the law finally collapsed. It was generating a sort of open ended flow of stimulus money during that time, allowing it to fund... pretty much anything... given liars loans paired with rising home prices and easy access to lines of credit that were tied in to them.
The mortgage fraud has ended... but, the bubble that was inflated by it still hasn't been allowed to deflate. The market for fraudulent mortgage backed securities no long exists, but the government is still holding and buying mortgage securities to prevent a rapid correction in prices, while holding out hoping for a restoration of some functional flow in credit markets, requiring some $ to come from some new source for new uses, that might be able to replace that bit of missing stimulus, and provide longer term support to housing prices... by getting the economy working again. That plan won't work as long as unemployment isn't resolved. Banks still aren't lending... and won't while the government CAN'T raise interest rates... which would put them so far underwater on debt service they'd be forced to go BK, made unable to service the debt. Banks won't lend given that situation... when they can borrow at near zero rates, in effect, and still profit nicely at "zero risk" from lending the free money the government gave them, right back to the government, for 4 or 5%...
Apply a technicians approach to that chart... and it what it seems it says is that the correction required to counter the artificial "pump" that took the market up to the highs... is a move to downside that roughly equals the excess in the opposite direction ?
Of course, there was REAL economic acceleration and growth that resulted from the situation... so, you might need to parse some adjustments to separate out the good bits from the bad... and would still need to figure out what the "real" change in policy is, given that the effect of the elimination of mortgage fraud as the preferred national policy IS being countered by a large range of other policy inputs intended to counter it ???
That is why you see the Fed saying you should still expect to see ZERO interest rates that last for YEARS...
Ever see that before ?
What good does it do... if you can't borrow money anyway at anything that is anywhere near that price ?
The solution is NOT government spending money and more borrowed money to try to fill the gap in what others aren't spending...
The ONLY solution is to restore the now missing stimulus function... to grow the economy at a 6% or better rate, with rules that ensure ECONOMIC uses are made of the money, rather than re-enabling the diversions of it into bank enabled frauds.
Without a plan that can make that happen... which will require opening NEW channels for the money to be able to flow, again, and flow AROUND the banks, to flow directly to entrepreneurial borrowers who will APPLY it economically, to create real value... without the banks imposing filters that ensure the value that results is value that will and can only be transferred to them...
Then, the only other "way out" is either through a proper "correction" like that we saw occur following 1929, only ended with the "stimulus" of WWII... or through a MASSIVE bout of inflation...
IOW, you can't fix it without the banks being held to account, and suffering the natural consequences of their excesses and correction of their policy errors, requiring that what is broken now must be recognized and corrected. If that isn't allowed to happen, you're STILL going to get that sort of a fix, it WILL be imposed as is required to make that happen (the market works)... even if getting it means the collapse of the government and its replacement.
Not saying anything I haven't before... but, half measures and hope, when that enables dithering and fraud postured as reform... isn't solving the problem rather than making it worse.
The fiction that "we fixed it" with a "reform" bill that makes the problem worse... giving even more power to the banks ???
That only means they're not dealing with the reality... at all.
IMO it is FACT that the "powers that be" now care much less about fostering prosperity than they care about power, and the exercise of power, to ensure, whatever level of prosperity there is, that they retain their position and power. That is the opposite of what we expect from our country and our economy, and it is the opposite of the promise of a free market... where competition is enabled, not channeled by corruption to enable only some to take the benefit of others successes. With rules that impose that model, market incentives won't work, and there will be less success, and less wealth... until some form of collapse is all that is left, when unmet expectations meet that limit in reality.
My guess of which of the three potential paths "out" is most likely... ???
I think there will be no real change in policy, no reform, as long as "the system" there is can be enlisted to defend those with a hold on power... at any cost. Genuine political reform... is unlikely. There is unlikely to be any meaningful decision that gets made, until crisis requires it... and then, that will likely occur only with WAY too little change made much too late. I think that means we're likely to see the worst possible result: no meaningful corrections applied, only more of the same, until desperation requires and enables "doing something".
Most likely, that means muddling along wasting time and potential for whatever time can be managed... until some new crisis creates a tipping point... or until the obvious un-sustainability of what has been undertaken now is actually realized, when the rotting foundation proves simply unable to support the structure.
Then, with things getting worse, and people getting more and more unhappy about it... and without other options... hyperinflation will become the only path left open... as more and more printed money thrown at anything and everything will be necessary for lack of any alternative.
Inflation is a form of tax... but it is a form of tax that won't accelerate the deflationary spiral rather than counter it.
Timing ? Who knows... always hard to predict the timing of departures into discontinuous events.
I think your approach to the use of charting tools is likely as useful as anything else in parsing probable timing.
/rant
Good Evening here is wishing all Luck and successful trading.
"People are often unreasonable and self-centered. Forgive them anyway. If you are kind, people may accuse you of ulterior motives. Be kind anyway... If you find happiness, people may be jealous. Be happy anyway. The good you do today may be forgotten tomorrow. Do good anyway... For you see, in the end, it is between you and God. It was never between you and them anyway." — Mother Teresa
MKA, thanks for the comment, had not looked to it like that,
was stuck staring at my own trendlines,
But indeed correct.
Thanks
And with that, MKA...breakout?
Do we have a change in the chart?
Very good, read :)
CIIC .88 setting up for nice bottom formation from .84 call yesterday, broke 50% of the red candle.
link back for chart
in OSBC and CIIC bottom plays, both still needs more confirmation, charts posted before
clear support for OSBC as well where one can set stoploss
Very nice. ;)
TRID now 1.70 in pm, nice
Trident Microsystems Q2 Revenues Blow Past Street Estimates.
By Eric Savitz
Trident Microsystems (TRID), which provides chips used in TVs and set-top boxes, posted better than expected Q2 results.
For the quarter, Trident reported revenue of $171.6 million and a non-GAAP loss of 9 cents a share; the Street had expected $155 million in revenue and a loss of 15 cents a share.
For Q3, the company sees revenue of $170 million to $180 million; the Street has been expecting $170 million.
TRID in late trading is up 4 cents, or 2.7%, to $1.52.
GAP 2.94 target 3,30 bottom of gap
They report tonight.
CONSENSUS ESTIMATES: According to knobias:
Revenue: $155.00 million
EPS: $-0.15 per share
PREVIOUS PERIOD:
Revenue: $14.93 million
EPS: $-0.24 per share
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