That's as solid a theory, and based on good under-pinning facts/reality that I've heard so far.
Good analysis. And yes, I too, would be/am weary when "they" the Asher's of this world- will turn and go the other direction via the convertible shares.
Remember- the pros, especially the "Ashers" of this world, they make money going both directions. They don't care if it's going up or going down (truth IMO, they don't even care what/who the company makes, does, whatever- to them it's just numbers in a spreadsheet,a highly complex computer algorithm to determine a max return for a certain amount of cash money loaned and they are big on "time value" and "total return"- as in big returns, and turn-over their cash as fast and as many times as possible - to free it up and re-lend it ASAP, wash, rinse, repeat) they have the capital and the "tool-box" and, in this case the convertible shares and/or warrants to benefit going either direction, and benefit big-time.
I think the "warrant theory" is a solid one. And then, my opinion, they turn and go short at some point- whenever they deem to be "the right time" to manage their play for max profits. They're brutal (the Asher type folks), that much is well known, well established IMO as pretty much "industry Gospel".
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