Replies to post #200891 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Zargis]

The problem is, if you didn't sell today around $4.05-$4.10, you pretty much have a poor chance of winning in any sell movement tomorrow. We will likely have much lower volume even during a sell off, forcing most to sell at the bottom.

Personally, I think if we do drop we won't go below around the $3.62 area (50/100day SMA)

The confirmation point in my mind would be going below $3.79/$3.76.

If we go below $3.83 than those are likely to break as well but I mean, at this point these are all just points on a board. The art of trading is determining the volume versus resistance point, which will break first?

If you see a drop where a long red-bar on the 5-minute appears and we are flowing down the bollinger bands (lower) and volume if flying, expect a decent drop of at least 8-10 cents. Generally too late unless you see it about to happen right before hand.

At the end of the day though, it kind of faked dropping a few times... the fact that it had a flowing up-hourly movement from 3.92, 3.96, 3.97, and 3.98 is good. But, the top side also went down hourly. (breaking point incoming)

Now, what still bothers me is that all quarterly payments to the treasury have previously been noted in the media to some extent, but yesterday's just seemed to fly under the radar.

I want to know why - because it doesn't 'feel' right. Something is going on in the background, it's just... a feeling.


More on the trading aspect: Sell at the high buy at the low? It's much more difficult to do if you stay in the same stock for a long period of time. Day trading it, yeah, easy, just buy low and sell 10-20 cents up. no big deal, you made some cash.

Holding, you have to worry about when you sell that it goes up... then you lose shares if your goal is to get more.

You also have to worry about if it goes down, but, not enough if you're trying to just buy back in lower.

Be well, be safe, be careful. My best advice is... if you plan to hold longer term with most shares anyway, just, just hold if you are not sure where it's going. Just sell when you are 100% sure of your move, that your emotions aren't in the mix. Etc.

-Z

p.s. as I'm writing this, my wife was watching Kathleen Madigan on netflix streaming video... she cracked a joke about obama talking about fannie mae..

http://www.kathleenmadigan.com/2013/09/madigan-again-now-streaming-on-netflix/
watch it at about 38-42 minutes in to see stuff about Obama / Fannie Mae. It was hilarious.


EDIT: tried to find the clip on youtube or something.. wasn't there...


(paraphrases of that below...)






NOTE: BELOW ARE SPOILERS FROM KATHLEEN HANIGAN'S NEW COMEDY VIDEO

"So Obama, he wants us to get up and help the country too, like this is a team effort or something. We'll, I'm sorry but I'm busy! Shark week is on."

"Obama, if you want me to email my representatives then... I'm going to need you to email ME, who they are."

"Obama was talking on TV the other day about our mortgage industry and he started talking about Fannie Mae and how they insure our mortgages. Now, question I have is; I thought Fannie May was a candy company? How did that happen, someone go to a bank and get their mortgage loan rejected then say 'Oh honey, I know - let's go to the candy factory down the street to get our mortgage!' "