Hi Philly,it all comes down to is the oil in the ground,and can he get it out. My trading history is trading index options,and if there is one thing that I learned over the years is if you have conviction being long or short you have to ride it.I left more money on the table trying to pick tops and bottoms,and in the end putting money in the game that you can afford to loose is the only way to play this game.I truly believe we are going to make money here,and I think it will happen in a few months,but that is just my opinion.GLTY