There's four major things to consider here as far as I know:
1.) Panel efficiency, many companies are still selling panels that are in the high teens efficiency. 16-18, as you get higher than that the price goes way up. Also, this only applies to "silicon solar cells", many of the higher efficiency panels are not made using the inexpensive base silicon.
2.) The overall output. One of the biggest wins for S3D panels is the fact that they have this light trapping effect that can accept and convert sunlight at a much wider range than standard production models today. So when Jim says 200% more power, that's only in part due to the higher efficiency, but more directly because that panel outputs more power over the course of a day because the panel can use lower light and light at more indirect angle such as morning and late afternoon.
3.) Cost to produce. Again, some companies, labs, and Universities are starting to claim higher efficiency. It's true, but at what cost of production? S3D panels are using a proprietary method of production using the current Silicon infrastructure to achieve their high efficiency panels at a cost that's at or lower than the current.
4.) Materials...as stated in the first three, the materials used is key to production cost and efficiency. According to the last 10K we could translate the proprietary method to some very high power (galium arsenide?) panels, these are in the 50% efficient range...but way expensive, think space station and military applications.
5?) Quality...other manufacturers have 20-40 year warranty on output production, we just don't have anything so who knows what the warranty would look like. The Licensing takes that off our shoulders for the most part, but quality on the initial run will determine if the lab quality panels can be truly translated into the same quality when mass produced. Time will tell here.
So it sounds like a simple question, but there are many factors involved. At some point the technology will become antiquated, but it's a long way off. I feel as though we've got at least 3-4 years before the competition comes up with anything close. And remember, we have the proprietary method of creating it, There may be other ways to get there, but will they be as cheap to produce, have the same quality, efficiency and power production?
If Jim pulls this off, people won't be saying "Meh" for a long time. :)
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