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SyndicateTwo

03/03/06 10:40 AM

#22907 RE: POKERSAM #22852

Poker, that chart you posted has a problem with your count. And it's also shows why Elliotwave is such a voodoo study. So many people mis-represent it, it's almost useless to most. You show the breakdown of how a typical wave count 'should' be. But in your actual chart, where you lable the correction off the 2000 peak as an ABC forming, your B wave should consist of nothing more than an ABC itself. Your B wave as you label it is drawn from the Oct 2002 lows. But there is an absolute 1-5 impulse starting on that date in all three indexes - the DOW, S&P, and Nas. Plus, as I posted before, you have to relabel your counts if a wave exceeds 61.8%. The DOW (61.8% was 10,000 right on the money) is way over that. The S&P (1253 was its 61.8% level and as you can see we blew through that this year). The RUT is hitting all time highs and that means it, along with the DOW and S&P are no longer considered in bear markets.

The only index that has yet to catch up is the Nasdaq. It hasn't even retraced 38%(2638). The Nasdaq fibo retracement levels are

38% - 2638.73
50% - 3114.89
61.8% - 3591.05

Therefore, in elliot terms, those are the targets.


Just look how Nas is holding 2300 oh so beautifully


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Walkingshadow

03/04/06 4:49 AM

#23110 RE: POKERSAM #22852

Nice chart, Pokersam. I agree that we are nearing a top. I suppose my only disagreements are that the exact top cannot be precisely drawn on a chart, there is a margin of error. And, I believe we have one more bull run left in this market. Also, I think the coming correction will NOT change the long-term trend, it will just severely reset it. Then most of the rest of the year will be very ugly, and we'll both be in the bear den growling at the bulls and taking their money.

;-)))

T

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euterpe1

03/05/06 8:29 AM

#23189 RE: POKERSAM #22852

Both bull and bear scenario are possible at this point. I don't buy the 38% retrace needed arguement. The P/E's on the compx in 1999 and 2000 were so whacked out of reality that I see no reason we have to retrace to that level. Second, the low SPX P/E arguement is equally flawed. Are we talking historically in the last 15 years or historically in the last 50 years?

The investor sentiment is a good contrary indicator that could mean a IT low is in or almost in, but we'll just have to wait and see. The last 3 candles on the compx daily are almost identical to the 3 candles at the end of Oct. We were down 37 points the following trading day and then up and away from there.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p00688148941

This says were are in bull mode, but I would be more incline to believe it if the TRIX were heading north...and it's not.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p00688148941