I don't think I can squeeze out any more insight from doing any technical charting at this point.
The ideas about watching the next rally for just two days, based on seeing previous two-day surges, is a cute trick ,that sometimes works in 'day trading strategies' but I'd rather look at a few other things now in the longer term picture, at least a weekly chart and maybe seeing what the whole thing looks like, from the 2012 summer lows (1.60 area) to the assorted top zones in the 5 wave structure that has played out now, from 1.60 to 19.11
The technical Key support zone in this big picture is the 'left shoulder zone' at 13 dollars (from last September/October time)
Seeing how the most recent plunge hit that zone at 12.53 was a gift to buy.
Depending on what kind of fundamental news comes out Monday afternoon, price action will respond.
The support base 'bottom zone' remains that 12/13 area. but along the way down, there is a big support zone at 14 area(13.70-14.70)
and one developing these days that will be at 16 dollars (15-17) in the future
IF fundamental analysis forecasts prices at 50 dollars(or higher) then all these support zones between 11 and 17 are 'cheap'
and the current 'top' at 19 will be thought cheap some day.
So to look at the weekly chart of the last 3 years, we see a bottom zone at 1.60 call it 2 dollars.... you can see the 4 dollar area as a double. from 4 to 8 as another double.
a top zone that was peaked last year at 13, and sold way far below expectation to 5.35
(6 dollars was a better target)
from 6 area as a bottom zone....the next bottom base became the 12 dollar area (another double)
so it becomes a useful forecasting measurement to look where the next doubles might target.
From the key price tops and bottoms on the big chart.
I see these price targets
6.50 doubles to 13
7.50 doubles to 15
9.55 doubles to 19.10
11.20 doubles to 22.40
12 doubles to 24
12.53 doubles to 25.06
14 doubles to 28
15 doubles to 30
and the current balance point
16 doubles to 32
and from the tops, pullbacks over time ,or from plunges, went from 13 to 5.35 (I call it 6.30 area for charting)
from 17.88 to 11.20
and from 19.11 to 12.53
all very big pullbacks.
These are the movements in a technical price action . that moved over many days not just two days or even two weeks.
(If youre day trading GALT, good luck with that.)
So you can see the top zones and pullback bottom zones.
Adding the key moving averages, Bollinger bands, and counting the Elliott wave structures,
is what tells me the whole chart structure is a 'wave completion" (5 waves completed) pattern that ought to make a pullback from this 'top zone'.the top zone could extend a few more waves higher but at some point will engage in a serious pullback on a grand chart scale. Whether that happens from 30 to 19 or 50 to 27,or 22 to 15, cant be forecasted right now.
The resident fundamental analysis experts here are suggesting we are wasting time watching technical price charting, and should just watch and wait for continued soaring to 50 and higher.
Maybe we will see that starting tomorrow. I don't want to disagree. Monday and this week will be interesting to watch to say the least.
But I will approach it cautiously, and keep my eye on the pullback zones, as still being in play. which to my vision means a zone from 11 to 16. at the current time.
I'm prepared to buy more plunges if they happen, and target below 14, and to consider selling a little at strong resistance above 25-30 area if/when that time comes.
If continued progress and bullish price action happens, someday we wont be able to buy plunges to 13.
Maybe it will be a plunge from 29 to 16...I don't know, or a plunge from 35 to 19... but right now, like the other day, that plunged to 12.53.... I'm keeping my eye on falling knives to buy.
At the moment I don't think I would sell any below 25 area. but like you said, some aspects of portfolio mgmt. depends on cost basis and how much you own, etc....
Good investing to all
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