Replies to post #106498 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mish]

I believe it is impossible to know.
The MM knows whether he is long or short but the numbers themselves offer no real indication.

The best one can do is ASSUME it all averages out which could be a poor assumption.

Just like the spike in the PC sometime back that was due to a wierd bullish calendar spread, but unless there is direct evidence like that, or unless an until the MMs are forced to show short data (even on options) we will not know. Rest assured someone does but never us IMO (except perhaps on an "unusual" single trade basis)

M

[Zeev Hed]

You don't know, but what I do, I compare the same equity P/C (whether they were bought or sold, since each transaction always has both sides) ratio over time and look for extremes. Greater than 1 have often indicated extreme pessimism (and thus has been associated with local bottoms) and under about .44 often indicated extreme optimism (and thus associated with local tops). When I can I take out large occasional chunks of QQQ leaps that appears as single large blocs, since these are, IMTO, associated with big platers hedges.

Zeev